Scatter Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Like the title says, can someone explain this because it defies logic: I'm seeing wildly different numbers (from large negatives to opposing positives) for keepers with similar save percentage and concession stats across a similar number of games. The useless manual says the square root of bugger all. The in-game tooltip just explains what the acronym stands for, which, like the manual, is frustratingly useless. I'm trying to work out if my keeper is rubbish, or if I have a defensive issue with my tactics. After 26 games his xGP 1.49 (0.06 per 90)... but what does that mean? What is that calculated against. It most certainly is not calculated against xGA (a stat which might be useful on the squad screen, but noooooo... gotta calculate that one manually) which is 37 conceded against ~22.5 expected goals against. This alone suggests my keeper is a bit dodgy, except his save ratio is above his xsv%, and I have conceded an hilariously ridiculous number of worldies... Soooo... what is it? How does it work, and/or what is it calculated against please? 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scatter Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 I'm guessing this means no-one actually knows... 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Rowell Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) On 06/01/2024 at 06:34, Scatter said: Like the title says, can someone explain this because it defies logic: I'm seeing wildly different numbers (from large negatives to opposing positives) for keepers with similar save percentage and concession stats across a similar number of games. The useless manual says the square root of bugger all. The in-game tooltip just explains what the acronym stands for, which, like the manual, is frustratingly useless. I'm trying to work out if my keeper is rubbish, or if I have a defensive issue with my tactics. After 26 games his xGP 1.49 (0.06 per 90)... but what does that mean? What is that calculated against. It most certainly is not calculated against xGA (a stat which might be useful on the squad screen, but noooooo... gotta calculate that one manually) which is 37 conceded against ~22.5 expected goals against. This alone suggests my keeper is a bit dodgy, except his save ratio is above his xsv%, and I have conceded an hilariously ridiculous number of worldies... Soooo... what is it? How does it work, and/or what is it calculated against please? In short, your keeper is performing pretty much at an average level. Its not calculated against xGA , because that wouldn't account for shots not on target - obviously your keeper will only save shots on target. So the baseline is xGoT i.e. expected goals on target which accounts for where the ball is heading, likelihood of it going in and hence the difficulty of a save the keeper would have to make. After that, expected goals prevented metric would be measured against xGoT. So if xGoT was 1.2 average, he conceded 1.0 per game, then his xGP would be +0.2, so performing above average and having a net positive effect on your team. For your specific case, its +0.06 so its net positive, but the number is very small and not really statistically a significant difference, so he's more or less performing in an average way - neither good nor bad. Article below explains in more detail. https://theanalyst.com/eu/2021/06/what-are-expected-goals-on-target-xgot/ Edited January 8 by Lord Rowell Added a link 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scatter Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 Awesome. So the stat is useful - and now legible. Thank you. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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