[FM24] The Traipsing of the Shrew

[vkastanas]

11 minutes ago, Shrewnaldo said:

be able to correct it again.

So, changed the values to the correct ones (Average of lines 5-7). Still get the "something wrong" signal by excell but I guess this happens to you too. Right? Cause the averages for the other leagues are calculated elsewhere and are inserted in the spreadsheet manually?

[Shrewnaldo]

5 minutes ago, vkastanas said:

So, changed the values to the correct ones (Average of lines 5-7). Still get the "something wrong" signal by excell but I guess this happens to you too. Right? Cause the averages for the other leagues are calculated elsewhere and are inserted in the spreadsheet manually?

Yes, exactly that. Everything else was a manual entry by lifting the data from the game. Only that line has any formula so excel highlights it as being different.

[Shrewnaldo]

Survival

Leoni del Garda - FeralpiSalò

So before the epic tome on recruitment strategy, you may recall that I'd decided to take over FeralpiSalò in as 'realistic' a scenario as I could create. Therefore, I holidayed the game to match with my IRL start date (20th October 2023) and found the Lions of Garda languishing at the foot of the table. Sacking Stefano Vecchi then seemed like a reasonable thing for the board to do - indeed the real life board caught up with my idea only three days later by terminating the actual manager's contract.

In my FM world, rather than Marco Zaffaroni assuming the reins, my alter ego Naldo Toporagno took charge (Toporagno being Italian for Shrew). And no, this is not intended to look anything like me.

There was barely time to peruse the squad and check out any changes for the new game before taking charge of our first match - a relegation six-pointer against AS Reggiana. And I must say that I was rather concerned when we followed up a 4-1 hammering of I Granata with regulation victories over Catanzaro and Cosenza, scoring 9 and conceding just 1. I was after a challenge and three wins from three just smacked of 'beta easy mode'.

Thankfully matters soon returned to the norm and we had a couple of periods of real struggle, including two 6-game winless streaks: between the turn of the year and late February, and then March to mid-April. Regardless, after the initial burst of points, we managed to keep our head above water and, with three games to go, have confirmed our survival in Serie B for another season.

Cremonese and Parma will fight it out for top spot but both go up regardless, whilst Sampdoria look like being the biggest side to miss out on the playoffs. At the other end, Lecco are confirmed down and Venezia look like following them out of the leak - whilst Cittadella and Reggiana will attempt to escape the final relegation spot.

For our part, we will end up between 13th and 16th - which we have to consider a success given the starting position and quality of players at our disposal. I'd outlined my intention to play a low-block, counter-attacking game and I've absolutely committed to that as some key metrics from the Data Hub will confirm.

I like the 'pitch tilt' graphic best. We sit deep and only really press within our only final third - and we rarely get into the opponent's final third. But that's fine. We don't want to hang around once we get there; we prefer to be direct and try to get off shots as early as possible with a view to creating the highest xG/shot that we can. And that has been a great success. Despite taking the fourth fewest shots in the league, we create the fifth highest xg per shot.

Yet the offence is still clearly lacking. 40 goals scored (so far) is the joint-third worst in the division  so whilst I like what we're doing in attack, it's clear we need to be doing a bit more of it.

Meanwhile, our defensive performance has not suffered. Conceding 1.37 goals per game is definitely higher than I would prefer, but it's 0.11 less than the league average. We have the sixth best defence in Serie B. All of which provides a merry picture going forward into our first summer of recruitment.

To which end, I have been immersing myself in some hardcore excel sessions this evening. I exported all my chosen offensive and defensive statistics for every player we know in the 30 loaded, playable leagues that is out of contract in June and has started at least 7 matches. I was then able to create filters which ranked the resulting 1160 players according to the various profiles that I'm needing. Unfortunately, that's just about the whole team.

As I'd mentioned previously, six of the first choice team are loanees who will be returning to their parent clubs. Another five members of the first-team squad will leave when their contracts expire. In terms of regular starters that will be here come August 2024, that only leaves me with:

• Semuel Pizzignacco - an excellent goalkeeper who is probably our only sellable asset and may well leave if a Serie A club decides he's worth his £3.1m release clause
• Michele Camporese - decent centre back
• Loris Baccheti - strong centre back who has already told me he's leaving on a free in 2025
• Federico Carraro - average central midfielder who doesn't fit our physical requirements
• Davide Balastrero - excellent midfielder who has already told me he's leaving on a free in 2025
• Alessio da Cruz - injury prone winger
• Karlo Butic - very poor striker that I'd love to sell

That's a big yikes and means I'll need to bring in maybe 10-12 players in the summer. And this is when I point back to the money again. Or lack thereof. 

An even bigger yikes. It also means that I can't commit to signing players now and I'm needing to take a chance that they'll still be available once my own players have left... and hopefully the board are a little more generous than the proposed budget for next season.

I'm really not sure what's going to happen for next term. According to the game, we're due to move back to the Lina Turina in Salò, vacating the rented stadium in Piacenza - 120 miles down the road. But the reason we've been playing at the Leonardo Garilli is that the Lina Turina holds just 2364 supporters and doesn't meet Serie B's minimum requirement (5500). With no indication in the game that we're paying for the Lina Turina to be upgraded, I suspect that we'll be temporarily housed elsewhere again... and maybe that will bring some increased funding? Wishful thinking perhaps.

For now, I'm having a great time doing stuff like this:

I appreciate that probably isn't very easy to read, but it's essentially taking all the stats for the 1160 players then creating normalised ranks by comparing the output from each player to the average output of their peers (subtotalled averages based on the filters, i.e. only creating averages from other strikers above a certain height). It then includes some self-generated statistics such as "goal contributions as a percentage of team goals" (goals per 90 + assist per 90 / team goals per 90), net possession impact (possession lost per 90 - possession won per 90) and pressure success (successful pressures / pressures attempted). All very straightforward.

Then the subtotal for these selected statistics is multiplied by the deviation that I've created to account for the quality of the league the player is in. And, having done this for 9s, 8s, 6s, fullbacks, centrebacks and wingers I'm off to do quite a bit of scouting and watching selected games from some of these players. Fun times.

Forza Feralpi!

[Shrewnaldo]

Ok, so I'm an idiot - there are 4 teams relegated from Serie B - but the relegation zone only shows three on the table because there's an odd Italian rule for the fourth spot:

If there is more than 4 points separating 16th and 17th, then 17th is automatically relegated. If there is 4 points or less separating them, then they enter a playout.

Luckily for me, we finished 14th. 9 points ended up separately Catanzaro in 16th and Reggiana in 17th. So the bottom four are automatically relegated.

With the final table looking thus, Cremonese took the title and Parma are going up in second. Playoffs will decide the third promoted side.

[keeper#1]

We already know you're an idiot.  No need to remind us.  

[danielgear]

Congratulations on staying up, Job done. Looking forward to a summer overhaul, with no money it will be interesting to see what you can do. 

[uroszila]

Congrats for the first season. The rebuild starts now and I'm very much looking forward to!

I wonder, will you dive in the loan market as well or do you plan to make only permanent deals?

[Lestri]

I would have suggested the good old relegation/non-promotion clauses but you'd need a transfer budget for that!

[Shrewnaldo]

6 hours ago, keeper#1 said:

We already know you're an idiot.  No need to remind us.  

Fair point, well made

4 hours ago, danielgear said:

Congratulations on staying up, Job done. Looking forward to a summer overhaul, with no money it will be interesting to see what you can do. 

Cheers Dan. I'm hoping I've done enough prep work to have identified the right people to bring in. With the stats being wiped by the time players are released, I've created shortlists of those who had the right stats for each role. Having played until 1 July last night, I've managed to get a number in on trial so I'm hoping we'll be able to sign enough 

3 hours ago, uroszila said:

Congrats for the first season. The rebuild starts now and I'm very much looking forward to!

I wonder, will you dive in the loan market as well or do you plan to make only permanent deals?

Good question. We have Atalanta as a parent club, so that is definitely a market I'll consider. I'd also really like to bring Mattia Compagnon back on loan from Juve. He's nowhere near good enough for them and has been transfer listed, but the new "we want him to be tested in a new environment" feature (to stop the multi season loan glitch thing) means they're blocking it for now. 

3 hours ago, Lestri said:

I would have suggested the good old relegation/non-promotion clauses but you'd need a transfer budget for that!

We ended up getting a bit of money but it will need to be kept for signing on fees

[_Ben_]

I haven't been particularly active on these parts of the forums in the last week or so and I've missed an absolutely cracking start. This feels like peak Shrew and I look forward to seeing what you can achieve. As someone who remembers your adventures with Feralpi the first time around, I am immediately drawn to that connection that you have with them and believe that this will really shine through in your engagement and how you post. You've started really well and I'm sure that the summer will be prepared, given all of the leg work you've done so far!

[Shrewnaldo]

26 minutes ago, _Ben_ said:

I haven't been particularly active on these parts of the forums in the last week or so and I've missed an absolutely cracking start. This feels like peak Shrew and I look forward to seeing what you can achieve. As someone who remembers your adventures with Feralpi the first time around, I am immediately drawn to that connection that you have with them and believe that this will really shine through in your engagement and how you post. You've started really well and I'm sure that the summer will be prepared, given all of the leg work you've done so far!

Thanks Ben, much appreciated. Can completely understand that you're knee-deep in upgrading your skin for 24. Looking forward to seeing what you end up with.

And yes, I think we were well-prepared for the window and managed to secure a few of our targets. There were a couple of positions where we ended up missing out on the targets we've identified and, because I had no-one left through the stats-route, have taken loanees on instead. Regardless, the preparation and the commitment to the theme have shone through as we're left with the biggest, heaviest squad in the league. We are, literally, massive.

[Shrewnaldo]

First Window

Leoni del Garda - FeralpiSalò

It's turned out to be quite a difficult window. Whilst I'd prepared shortlists for almost every position in the team, I was hampered by the lack of available funds and an enforced patience. With no transfer budget, I had to wait until 1 July and hope that at least some of the shortlisted players would fail to sign new deals with their clubs, becoming available on the free market. I reckon the success rate here was about 50/50 and we had to say goodbye to quite a number of primary targets early on.

Regardless, the preparation paid off and we were able to bring in 42 players on trial by mid-July. And about a quarter of them simply wanted far too much in wages to be viable options. So I was down to a pool of about 30 - or an average of 3 per profile / position.

From there I missed out on some of my preferred options - special mention here to Ronaldo Taveres. The 6'4" Portuguese striker, once of Estrela da Amadora, was my absolute number one target as the new 9. The Target Forward Rank (including deviation) that I'd built ranked him 10th of all 1160 players exported. He massively outperformed his xG at a relatively poor Liga NOS side and was directly involved in a massive 62% of his team's goals last season - a standout performer in a relatively poor side. He was also the only feasible option in the top 20 to be a first-choice regular for his team, starting 31 games - and at 26 was coming into his prime period. Sadly, he insisted on us paying him £30,000 a week, which we clearly couldn't afford - only to then accept £5250 (whilst still on trial with us) to go to fellow Serie B side Cosenza. Not pleased, but such is life.

Whilst Tavares let us down, we did manage to secure a number of key targets and several first-choices whilst also bringing in reasonable money for players I either didn't want (Karlo Butic) or who don't fit the physical profiles I require (Federico Carraro).

Perhaps one example to highlight the process and commitment to the save's premise.

Shaka was playing for Serie C Arezzo last season but - despite playing in one of the poorest playable leagues in my save, and therefore suffering from a negative deviation weighting - popped up in the top 20 of midfielders according to my "8 ranking". This ranking takes into account statistical output across the previous season for dribbles, aerial challenge success, non-penalty xG per 90, progressive passes, etc etc. He also fit the general physical profile that I'm looking for - minimum 6'0" with decent strength and no obvious physical weaknesses.

At our level, he absolutely fits the profile of a classic box-to-box midfielder and can also fill in as a 6 when needed. The real stand-out statistic which sealed it for me was his goal contributions. At 0.52 direct involvements per 90, he was outperforming his peers by 170% - and not in a dominant team either, that 0.52 per 90 accounting for 45% of Arezzo's goals. That's the highest proportion of any central midfielder in my export.

I'm delighted with his acquisition.

That nicely summarises the general process by which I decided on the majority of our acquisitions. I think the 9 is where I'm least certain of success. As I said above, we missed out on primary target Ronaldo Tavares but ended up bringing in Norwegian Julian Kristoffersen (6'6") from Ancona and Khalid Boutaïb (6'3") from French club Pau. The former was only ever intended to be a solid back-up, and whilst the latter was 5th overall on our target forward ranking, I was slightly put off by his low goal contributions at Pau. Despite over-performing his xG, he contributed to only 0.29 goals + assists per 90 - a mere 17% of his team's overall perforamance.

The other options were swiftly being snapped up elsewhere (Davide Diaw going to Tenerife, Jonathan Kodija signing another contract with Annecy, etc) and so I had to move. Boutaïb was willing to join very cheap and I decided to just pull the trigger. At 36, he was never going to be a long-term option but has decent mental attributes and player traits to make him a valuable mentor whilst I find better options.

In some other positions, I just wasn't able to bring in anyone that had been identified and scouted as part of the preparation. In these instances, I took one of two options:

1. I used the save file from last season to go back and look at the statistical output for players that had played a decent number of games - for example left-back Marijan Čabraja coming in from Rijeka
2. If there were no competitive games on which to make a judgement, I opted for loans instead. I didn't want to commit to anything outside the premise of the save but I just needed players. I think loans are a nice compromise so I can assess the players myself. As such, Domingos Quina has come in from Udinese to offer pace and flair on the break, with Filippo Missori joining as first-choice right-back on loan from Sassuolo

All of which gives us good options across the park to fit any of the systems we tend to use. So far, I've flipped between 4-4-1-1, 4-1-4-1, 4-4-1-1 with DMs, 5-4-1, 5-3-2... you get the idea. The shape changes but the principles remain. Low-block, direct, aggressive play with a physically dominant team.

The tallest and heaviest side in the league with a higher-than-average age profile. That's exactly what I'm aiming for.

And the signs are promising that it'll pay dividends. We may have lost this game but Empoli are a solid Serie A team, finishing 14th last season.

All the hall-marks of our approach are here - 30% possession yet we out-shot our more illustrious opponents and created excellent xG per shot. Our three goals came from new signings. We just couldn't keep the lead and were looking good in extra time until my excellent 'keeper broke his collar bone catching an uncontested long-ball (thank you new FM goalkeeper injury feature, just splendid). Having already made all 5 subs, we were down to ten men and had to put Kristoffersen in goal - something at which he proved himself comically unsuited. 

Hopefully we can carry that offensive form into the league. I'd be happy with a solid mid-table performance as we continue to build the squad and develop into an even more physical side. We'll be returning to our own ground this season - the Lina Turina having been expanded to a massive 3500 all-seater... how this squares with Serie B's 5500 minimum, I'm not too sure but let's just move on from that. With luck we'll see a few more people through the gates now that the games are actually in Salò and not 120 miles down the road.

Some other signings might follow before the deadline to help us along a bit too. A few of the targets who rejected us are still without clubs and may resign themselves to playing with such lowly company as ourselves. In particular, now that Pizzignacco is out for three months with that collar bone, I may need another 'keeper; and ideally I'd like one more option at 8 for a bit of depth; plus I'm still unconvinced by our options at 9.

It seems much of the squad is in agreement...

Forza Feralpi!

[SteinkelssonFM]

I thoroughly enjoyed this update, I am in awe of your recruitment strategy which places a significant emphasis on the underlying metrics.

Also, how the bloody hell did you get the time to see the players in action with regards to the trialists...or was this simply to negate the attribute mask and see what numbers the potentials were packing? 

Unfortunate result against Empoli, who in comparison are a formidable opponent. GK injuries ..oh the joys! 

[SixPointer]

52 minutes ago, MattyLewis11 said:

I am in awe of your recruitment strategy which places a significant emphasis on the underlying metrics.

It’s unbelievable how good he is at it!! I wish I could be half as good! Must be some buzz finding hidden gems purely on stats. It’s great when you find one just through standard scouting. 

[Matt_1979]

Lovely update Shrew!!

[danielgear]

Enjoyed the update Shrew and the strength to Go through all those trialist 

[Chris_ANZFM]

I have long enjoyed your works but never really been one to comment. I don’t expect either of those things to change anytime soon but just wanted to say thanks! The attention to detail is excellent!

[Reiver]

I remember your original save with FeralpiSalò. I feel old. Great read so far!

[_Ben_]

Some recruitment window Shrew! Can't wait to see how Mawuli fairs; in fact, I'd say that - footedness aside - he could be a player that may do you a job throughout Serie B and even into Serie A!

[bigmattb28]

Some update this! Great read.

[Shrewnaldo]

Thanks all @SixPointer @Matt_1979 @danielgear @Chris_ANZFM @Reiver @bigmattb28. Always appreciate the nice words and positive feedback to my rambling on about the game.

On 01/11/2023 at 12:22, MattyLewis11 said:

I thoroughly enjoyed this update, I am in awe of your recruitment strategy which places a significant emphasis on the underlying metrics.

Also, how the bloody hell did you get the time to see the players in action with regards to the trialists...or was this simply to negate the attribute mask and see what numbers the potentials were packing? 

Unfortunate result against Empoli, who in comparison are a formidable opponent. GK injuries ..oh the joys! 

Cheers Matty. I wanted to bring them in to try them out in friendlies - unfortunately not all 42 were interested in a move, or at least not at realistic wage levels. So whilst we ended up bringing in 42 total, I reckon maybe 20 or so got a couple of games for me to judge them on.

The goalkeeper injury thing looks like a classic 'beta' new feature - way overdone to make sure everyone notices that it's there, then it gets patched and balanced a bit later down the road.

23 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

Some recruitment window Shrew! Can't wait to see how Mawuli fairs; in fact, I'd say that - footedness aside - he could be a player that may do you a job throughout Serie B and even into Serie A!

The footedness thing is interesting. I've been thinking about adding a footedness multiplier to my ranking spreadsheet, but I'm not really sure what sort of weighting I would apply. If Shaka was, for example, 'reasonable' with his left foot - should that bump his score by 5%, 10%? Maybe at Serie B level, there's no multiplier as it isn't really required, but once I get to Serie A then it needs a revisit when I think it's more of a necessity... lots of stuff to consider.

[Shrewnaldo]

This is not usual for my teams. Not any of my teams, nevermind a team which I'm specifically trying to make hard to beat. Also, how are we scoring so many goals?! This is also unusual for my teams. I don't quite get it.

An injury to Pizzignacco has not helped because our back-up 'keeper is pretty gash but there are some big issues behind this defensively. On the other hand, Capone and Boutaïb have been absolutely fantastic signings and are largely responsible for all those goals... now I just need some similar impact at the back

Edited November 4, 2023 by Shrewnaldo

[Shrewnaldo]

Some tough lessons

Leoni del Garda - Feralpisalò

We started the season really well - indeed we were top after three wins from the opening four games. Sadly, that didn't last.

Freefall through September and October has only been arrested with some improved defensive performances. Having hit the halfway point, we're sitting in 13th - not awful but I think a few places below where I'd have liked to have been at this point.

Südtirol, Gubbio and Ternana look doomed already - and account for 7 of our 25 points. Meanwhile Pescara, Crotone and Pisa look set to scrap it out to avoid the fourth relegation spot. From Bari up, including ourselves, teams will likely have one eye on sneaking into the playoffs with an 8th-placed finish but there are some strong teams leading the pack - with Hellas Verona and Torino looking good for an immediate return to the top-flight.

I don't feel any particular threat of relegation - there were some aggravating circumstances which contributed to the poor performances. The primary factor was missing our first-choice 'keeper Semuel Pizzignacco - his replacement Giacomo Satalino just isn't of the same quality and failed to keep a single clean sheet. Instead, the team conceded an average of 2.25 goals per 90 in the 8 games he was between the sticks, Pizzignacco's record is 1.30.

The goals also dried up at the other end. Boutaïb started the season really well but first went on a barren run and was then out for 5 weeks with knee tendonitis. At the tender age of 37, you can imagine how this has impacted his physical attributes. His nominated understudy, Norwegian striker Julian Kristoffersen, struggled to make an impact - scoring his first league goal on 21st December. Between them, they have a scoring record of 1 in 2 - not the worst and our overall scoring record is 11th in the league. But, much like the goals at the other end, we've scored in feasts and famines. 5 against Südtirol, 4 against Crotone and 3 against Padova, Ternana and Catanzaro - but then blanks against Modena, Sampdoria, Gubbio, Palermo, Hellas Verona and Torino.

As I write this, I find myself changing my mind somewhat. 5 of those clubs are in the top 7 in the league and, as much as we've progressed since last season, I wouldn't expect us to be challenging those sides. In truth, the fixtures which have let us down haven't been goalless draws away to Palermo (7th) and Torino (2nd) - those are actually great results. The problem has been drawing 2-2 at home with Pisa (17th) and Pescara (15th), or losing 4-3 at Bari (14th). And in all three of those games, the problem has been the defence, not a lack of goals.

The original premise of the save was to be physical and tough to beat - playing with a low block and hitting teams on the counter. This seems to still be effective against the bigger teams in the league, but the lesser teams have reacted far quicker than I had anticipated and don't seem to be willing to come at us any more. 

Taking that Pisa game as an example - we're at home and have taken an early lead, then continued to sit back, creating almost nothing of note whilst we cede possession to the visitors. This is the analysis map showing where Pisa received their passes and crosses throughout the 90 minutes:

You can see the effect of our low block, protecting the centre - but even as Pisa are looking to the flanks, they are not committing their fullbacks much, with the majority of their passes being received around the halfway line. Here's a good example from one of their attacks:

Pisa are effectively attacking with only the four players highlighted in green. The defensive box makes countering through the middle very hard whilst their two fullbacks are barely committed at all - making it easy for them to recover to support the defence and prevent any counter attacks. (their "restdefence" to use the clumsy term that people are now assigning to this element of the game) This allows them to dominate possession in a very sterile but safe way and rely on defensive mistakes or set pieces to score. This is exactly what happened when they scored from a throw-in and a free-kick.

I'd been too slow to recognise this trend but it's very, very difficult to play a direct, counter-attacking game against a side that keeps six players goalside of your entire XI when attacking. In the last two games, I've finally cottoned on and pushed our players up the park a little. I want to honour as much of the principles as we can, so I'm sticking to a physical, direct game - but instead of the low block, I've pushed us up into a mid-block with a more positive mentality / risk-taking approach.

And it paid immediate dividends with three goals in the opening ten minutes against relegation fodder Ternana - a game which saw our highest possession share since starting the save.

So what does this mean for the rest of the season? Well first, it means I need to better balance our tactical approach. 

I don't think you can accuse us of being one-dimensional tactically, but the majority of these shapes were variations on the low-block theme. I'd like to continue this reactivity but being more proactive against the sides below us, if not those in-and-around us too. Meanwhile, we'll continue the successful low-blocking game against the promotion chasers.

We also have another window coming up but I think our recruitment priority will be the summer. Two of the loanees - right-back Filippo Missori and winger Domingos Quina - have been two of our best players, along with midfielder Davide Balestrero who has already told us he's leaving in the summer. So replacements for these three are high on the list of priorities - before I even look at strengthening elsewhere. And like last summer, that 'elsewhere' is likely to be extensive. Pizzignacco will likely move to a bigger club at the end of the campaign, so a 'keeper will be needed; whilst the age profiles at centre back and 9 are clear indicators that attention is also needed there...

So this perennial problem is going to come back again, which means it's likely to be a scramble for free transfers augmented by a couple of loans whilst we try to build up a little better year-on-year. Fun though.

Forza Feralpi!

Edited November 5, 2023 by Shrewnaldo

[Henke90]

Looks like I have lots to catch up on already! Your threads are always amazing Shrew so i'll brew some tea and get stuck in!

[TangoFM]

I'm really interested in your tactical approach as it's pretty much the opposite of what I tend to go for, enjoyed seeing you spot issues and tweak them, hope to see more of that. I look forward to following along further.

Do you think that tweaking tactics more often, is going to be necessary in FM24? Will we have to be more focused on how the opposition plays? 

[Chris_ANZFM]

Despite not quite living up to your own expectations there’s a lot to be said for the how quickly you’ve appeared to establish the club at this level. 

[Shrewnaldo]

On 05/11/2023 at 20:40, Henke90 said:

Looks like I have lots to catch up on already! Your threads are always amazing Shrew so i'll brew some tea and get stuck in!

Thanks, hope you enjoyed it

On 06/11/2023 at 12:57, TangoFM said:

I'm really interested in your tactical approach as it's pretty much the opposite of what I tend to go for, enjoyed seeing you spot issues and tweak them, hope to see more of that. I look forward to following along further.

Do you think that tweaking tactics more often, is going to be necessary in FM24? Will we have to be more focused on how the opposition plays? 

I think FM has, for a number of years now, been slowly getting better with the AI reacting to the human player's tactics. This has made it progressively more and more important to react mid-game. I know some people are saying "now with FM24 you need to do x", but mostly these are the same people who have been saying the same thing with every iteration... so I'd take take it with a pinch of salt. But, if you want to compare it to, let's say, FM16, then there's a definite step up in the ability of the AI.

Plus it's just fun to play this way and probably more realistic.

On 06/11/2023 at 20:08, Chris_ANZFM said:

Despite not quite living up to your own expectations there’s a lot to be said for the how quickly you’ve appeared to establish the club at this level. 

Fair point, but having finished 14th last season I'm really looking for a step up this term. In 2023/24, we got to 43 points by scoring 43 and conceding 55. I'd like to see improvements across each of those three simple metrics. Something like 48 points, scoring 50 and conceding 50 would do me.

[Chris_ANZFM]

On 08/11/2023 at 11:23, Shrewnaldo said:

Thanks, hope you enjoyed it

I think FM has, for a number of years now, been slowly getting better with the AI reacting to the human player's tactics. This has made it progressively more and more important to react mid-game. I know some people are saying "now with FM24 you need to do x", but mostly these are the same people who have been saying the same thing with every iteration... so I'd take take it with a pinch of salt. But, if you want to compare it to, let's say, FM16, then there's a definite step up in the ability of the AI.

Plus it's just fun to play this way and probably more realistic.

Fair point, but having finished 14th last season I'm really looking for a step up this term. In 2023/24, we got to 43 points by scoring 43 and conceding 55. I'd like to see improvements across each of those three simple metrics. Something like 48 points, scoring 50 and conceding 50 would do me.

Absolutely a fair expectation. Quite a reasonable one too!

[Shrewnaldo]

Window Prep

Leoni del Garda - FeralpiSalò

We've continued our solid, if unspectacular, form into the new year and, as expected, are completely untroubled by the prospect of relegation. We're currently sitting 12th, although I expect to drop off to something like 14th as our final 5 fixtures are pretty tough and mostly against teams who have something to play for.

I, meanwhile, have turned my attention to next season already. 8th place, with its final playoff spot, is 4 points and 4 teams away - that's just too much to overtake with 5 games to go. So I'll be rotating out the players who definitely won't be here next season and getting a good feel for exactly where I should be placing my focus over the summer. To help with that, I've already built a depth chart of the profiles I expect to use:

Rotating between variations of 4-4-1-1, 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3 and 5-4-1, I need players to be relatively versatile - capable of covering their identified role within the two potential slots that role may be assigned in any given formation. Right wing-backs, for example, will need to be able to play at DR or WBR, as an obvious example, whilst the 6s and 8s will need to be adept at playing DM or M. Simple stuff but it lets me identify the slots we're missing and it's pretty obvious that the majority of recruitment is going to be defensive.

That's no great surprise. Having conceded 49 in the 33 games to date, I'm still not much-enamoured with our defensive performance, and four of our current centre halves will definitely be leaving in the summer. Three (Alessandro Pilati - 1 start, Loris Bacchetti - 5 starts, and Michele Camporese - 25 starts) are out of contract and refusing to consider new ones; whilst loanee Antonio Tikvic (17 starts) will return to parent club Udinese. This leaves me with only Filippo Scaglia (30 starts) in the centre... less than ideal. There's a similar situation at right-back with the two loanees, including the superb Filippo Missori, returning from whence they came.

And it's going to come as little surprise that we'll be needing free transfers or loans again. The financial situation is dire - indeed the board already implemented an emergency 30% cut to my wage budget, now just £84k a week. Unless that recovers in the summer, we could be in quite a bit of trouble. For now, I'll prepare as if we're going to have some wages for new recruits.

Before I start the same process as last summer, I wanted to check back on the success of the recruitment to date. There's no point in replicating our approach if it's not producing the outcome we want. It's clear that our best players this season have been loanees - Filippo Missori, Antonio Tikvic, Coli Saco and Domingos Quina. More on the latter two later. How did our actual signings perform?

Giacomo Satalino - Recruitment Rating N/A

Intended to be nothing more than a back-up 'keeper, he has played far more than I'd prefer thanks to injury to Pizzignacco. Frankly, he's been pretty terrible but his signing wasn't based on any statistical output - it was just asking my DoF for free back-up goalkeeper options. So nothing to say on our approach here.

Filippo Scaglia - Recruitment Rating C+

As already mentioned, he's the only centre-back who will stay on for next season, but that's not driven by any huge success in his performances. He's been fine, don't get me wrong - but 65% header success ratio (including offensive headers at set pieces) and 71% tackle ratio... that's only ok. He does, however, block more shots per 90 than any other defender in my squad, almost double the average of the rest. So hang around he will and I'd be happy with him as a rotation option. A solid C+ but nothing more.

Marijan Cabraja - Recruitment Ranking B

Costing actual money rather than a Bosman, I had to load the save file from the previous season to check Cabraja's statistical output but, for just £25,500, he's been really good. I've probably stifled him somewhat by making him the least adventurous of our wingbacks - Filippo Missori at right-back is far and away our best player. Next season there's a good chance he'll be given more licence to get forward - which suits our primarily right-footed attacking players too, with the ML/AML cutting inside and the MR/AMR staying wider with a more conservative wingback behind. Even on a support duty, Cabraja has created 0.62 chances per 90 and xA/90 of 0.19. Really solid numbers. Solid player.

 Eklu Shaka Mawuli - Recruitment Rating A

Shaka has definitely been a big success. He was the case study given in the previous update, based on his ranking as an 8. For most of this season, he's played in the 6 role - largely to accommodate Davide Ballestrero. With the latter confirming that he will also leave when his contract expires, Shaka has moved into the 8 role and loanee Coli Saco has stepped in as the 6. In whichever role, Shaka has been great. 80% header success, 79% tackle success, wins possession about 33% more than he loses it, and good on the ball - making 3.26 progressive passes per 90. I'm a big fan and his success has convinced me to keep looking in Serie C for potential signings. A definite "A".

Giacomo Olzer - Recruitment Rating A

I had to wait a wee while for Olzer as he didn't want to join us right away but, having been outstanding for Brescia in Serie B last season (15 goals, 8 assists in 40 starts) he unfathomably went un-signed until mid-October. In I swooped and he's been similarly excellent for us. Outperforming his xG and creating 0.66 chances per game, one of his key strengths is in set pieces where he's producing 1.4 set-piece key passes per 90. With the tallest squad in the league, it's no surprise that set plays are a key strength for us but Olzer has been key there - 12 goals from corners being second behind only Sampdoria. Should be important again next term.

Christian Capone - Recruitment Rating B+

As will Christian 'Al' Capone. Significantly underperforming his xG but more creative from open play than Olzer and capable of playing any of the three roles behind the 9, he's the best dribbling attacker that we have and is fouled more regularly than any other player. This is really helpful when we're so strong from set pieces. I wish he was better in the air for his 6' but, leaving that aside, he's the best defensive forward player we have - winning the ball back more than any other wide player or 10. 

Khalid Boutaib - Recruitment Rating C

I struggled to get in the 9 I wanted and eventually settled for Boutaib. He started like a house on fire, though, scoring six in the first four games. He then went on a bit of a drought before knee tendonitis put him out of action for a month and a half. At his age, that's hard to come back from and he never really has. At 37, maybe he was just that bit too old - particularly for a team which relies on physicality... something to learn there perhaps.

Julian Kristoffersen - Recruitment Rating B+

Kristoffersen was another signing from Serie C and one that was intended to only ever be back-up to Boutaib. Following the Moroccan veteran's injury, Kristoffersen has become first-choice, albeit one who only performs in fits and starts. He's outperformed his xG a little but doesn't get enough shots away - just 1.84 per 90 - and not of terribly good quality - 0.18xG per shot being ok compared to the wider player pool but not good enough for the leading 9 in my view. If you're getting <2 shots per game and score with fewer than one in five shots, you're not on course to be the 1-in-2 striker that I need. Either get more shots of that quality, or take better shots. Definitely good enough to continue as back-up, but a leading 9 is going to be up there with the defensive priorties.

---------------------------------

So overall, I'm really pleased with that. With the exception of Boutaib, all the signings intended to be in the first-team have proven themselves worthy. One miss out of seven is a pretty good ratio. Which means that I'll continue to recruit in the same manner this season, with a little more confidence about shopping in Serie C, but perhaps avoiding the truly veteran players at 35+.

 

EDIT - I forgot I was going to come back to Saco and Quina. Two of the four loanees we've had this season, they both impressed me enough that I have finalised their permanent arrival in the summer - both on Bosmans. Quina has been involved in 20 goals this season (10 goals, 10 assists) and Saco, at 6'6", has fit straight into both the first team and our general ethos. Both were also available at reasonable wages and no transfer fee - the perfect double-act for us right now. A few more like this are badly needed.

Forza Feralpi!

Edited November 10, 2023 by Shrewnaldo

[keeper#1]

Love that pitch graphic.  I assume that was made in Excel.

[Shrewnaldo]

43 minutes ago, keeper#1 said:

Love that pitch graphic.  I assume that was made in Excel.

Indeed. Just a graphic with some transparency that I stick underneath when I want to take the screenshot. I know there's the one in the game but I find it better / easier to do this myself

[Shrewnaldo]

I need another four or five players. This is a massive struggle

[Matt_1979]

Lovely update. I have Olzer in my Brescia save so hoping he produces similar results for me!

[Shrewnaldo]

8 hours ago, Matt_1979 said:

Lovely update. I have Olzer in my Brescia save so hoping he produces similar results for me!

Cheers Matt, how are you playing him? I think he's been best for me at 10. Whenever I've played him off the right, he's just gone missing.

[Shrewnaldo]

Dilemma

Leoni del Garda - Feralpisalò

Finances are the biggest problem at Feralpisalò. The board has had to inject about £10m so far just to keep us afloat. Despite this, our wage budget has been plummeting since I took over. From £130k a week, we're now restricted to just £91k - and we're currently using £89k of that. This covers enough players for the first XI and a threadbare bench that includes two 16 year-olds and Davide Ballestrero - sitting on a rolling contract awaiting his inevitable departure.

From the prep that I'd done above, we still need a back-up 'keeper (or first-choice if Pizzignacco leaves), a centre back, a right-back and a 9 - plus another 6/8 would be useful, particularly when Ballestrero leaves... but we have only £2k left in the wage budget. That's not going to get us even one of those players. Loans might be an option but everyone is demanding a wage contribution that we can't afford... so we're kind of screwed.

We have very few options... perhaps only one option really.

Da Cruz is our first-choice right-winger and Shaka is our first-choice 8, but both are taking over £8k a week in wages. If we could sell both of them, we could bring in maybe £800k and free up £16,750 a week for free transfers. I reckon I could get 4 squad players for that... probably weakening our first-team but strengthening the squad overall. 

I can't decide. It'd be a bit of a risk - not least that I might not be able to sell the two of them and simply end up disrupting two important first-team players. Or perhaps we do sell them but then can't get anyone in at sufficiently cheap wages to fill out the squad... and even if we did manage it, then I'd still be two short of the players I reckon I need. So is it worth it?

I just can't see how the finances get any better without promotion, so it's not like we can just wait it out. I've already jettisoned the under-18 side, and this summer followed that up with the under-20s - getting rid of all the staff and moving any prospects to the senior squad, selling the rest. We're down to the bare bones in the senior squad and have still maxed out the wage budget. Players tell me 18-20 months ahead of their contracts expiring that they won't be signing new ones - but their value is so low that there's no point in selling them. So where do we go from here? Is the gamble with Da Cruz and Shaka our only option?

At something of an impasse. Views welcome.

Forza Feralpi!

 

--------------------------------

EDIT - I've done a bit more digging and it looks like I should be able to secure some cheaper loans from Serie A B-teams to fill out my squad. There are enough players on <£1k a week that I can get for a few hundred on loan. This feels like a more realistic route for Italian clubs so I'm going to commit to that.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Shrewnaldo

[Matt_1979]

5 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Cheers Matt, how are you playing him? I think he's been best for me at 10. Whenever I've played him off the right, he's just gone missing.

So far he’s been playing in a central attacking midfielder in a 5-2-2-1 as an advanced playmaker. However, after an amazing pre-season he’s played poorly in the 5-6 league games. 

[SteinkelssonFM]

4 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

This feels like a more realistic route for Italian clubs so I'm going to commit to that.

Absolutely, the amount of players that Italian clubs have out on loan is insanely high. Really hope you can get a few useful players in...it seems as if you have a real issue on your hands, how many hours have you spent trolling through the player search tab for potential signatures?! 

[Lestri]

I was fortunate with Trento in FM23 that we had an affiliation link with Juventus, so I spammed the crap out for that. Could be an option to do? 

[Shrewnaldo]

On 11/11/2023 at 22:24, MattyLewis11 said:

Absolutely, the amount of players that Italian clubs have out on loan is insanely high. Really hope you can get a few useful players in...it seems as if you have a real issue on your hands, how many hours have you spent trolling through the player search tab for potential signatures?! 

More like, "how much time have I spent trawling through excel exports of data from the player search tab"... and the answer would be "a lot".

9 hours ago, Lestri said:

I was fortunate with Trento in FM23 that we had an affiliation link with Juventus, so I spammed the crap out for that. Could be an option to do? 

We have an affiliate link with Atalanta but it's basically useless. They refuse to loan anyone for free and nearly always ask for 100% wage contributions. I don't think it's a loan-link, which is the problem. It's just a "mutually beneficial relationship" which is about as beneficial as my stalker-ex.

[Shrewnaldo]

Is anyone else having an issue with FM24 being very high-scoring? I thought our defence was really poor but it turns out that everyone's is.

To illustrate, last season IRL the worst defence in Serie B was Brescia - conceding 57 goals. Last season in my save, the AVERAGE goals conceded was 61.3. That just isn't right.

Is anyone else finding a similar problem?

[Shrewnaldo]

8 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

Is anyone else having an issue with FM24 being very high-scoring? I thought our defence was really poor but it turns out that everyone's is.

To illustrate, last season IRL the worst defence in Serie B was Brescia - conceding 57 goals. Last season in my save, the AVERAGE goals conceded was 61.3. That just isn't right.

Is anyone else finding a similar problem?

So it looks like this is a wider FM24 bug. I thought our terrible defending was because our players were terrible... turns out the match engine is churning out quite ridiculous numbers of goals just now. People might think I'm being over-dramatic about this but the more I look at this the more game-breaking it feels. The immersion has just completely broken. It's like the glass-smashing moment in How I Met Your Mother. Going to sleep on it and see how I feel tomorrow but might just put this on hold until it's patched.

[keeper#1]

29 minutes ago, Shrewnaldo said:

So it looks like this is a wider FM24 bug. I thought our terrible defending was because our players were terrible... turns out the match engine is churning out quite ridiculous numbers of goals just now. People might think I'm being over-dramatic about this but the more I look at this the more game-breaking it feels. The immersion has just completely broken. It's like the glass-smashing moment in How I Met Your Mother. Going to sleep on it and see how I feel tomorrow but might just put this on hold until it's patched.

Think of it this way:  FIFA introduced a new ball design to "enhance scoring."  But in practice, the enhancements went too far and they need to rein in it but it's going to take a few seasons.  That's what is happening and could be a "story line" to use for the save.

Just my thoughts.

[Shrewnaldo]

16 hours ago, keeper#1 said:

Think of it this way:  FIFA introduced a new ball design to "enhance scoring."  But in practice, the enhancements went too far and they need to rein in it but it's going to take a few seasons.  That's what is happening and could be a "story line" to use for the save.

Just my thoughts.

I admire the effort but it's not for me. I'm really finding this bug very dispiriting. I thought we were just bad, but knowing that such a significant bug is distorting the game so significantly in the human player's league... don't think I can put up with that 

[Shrewnaldo]

A bit on the scouting

Leoni del Garda - FeralpiSalò

The inflated number of goals has temporarily broken the immersion for me. I've been really enjoying the save and I want to continue but I'm not convinced I'll be able to play on with the defensive style until this is patched. I'm contemplating embracing the chaos and just going 'balls to the wall' attacking - play into the number of goals. I might just play on as-is and accept that clean sheets won't really happen. Not sure. Either way, I'm hoping that this is fixed by the time we get to Serie A so I can return to the theme of the save.

Before then, I've had some really, really nice feedback on the recruitment methods I've been employing - specifically using the attribute weighting data that I pulled out here and here. Part of the feedback was a request for some more information and the views that I've been using. So, whilst the views are attached to this post, I thought I'd just work through one example in detail to explain how I've been doing it. This will include extreme excel-nerdery. So apologies if that isn't your thing. See you on the other side.

Step 1 - Extract the data

It starts with getting a hold of the raw data that you need. This is simple enough but I'll walk through it just case. Going to the Scouting > Players screen, I set my Scouting Range to the level I can afford. So in this instance it'll be South Europe.

I will then untick the "Interested in" boxes for both Transfer and Loan. I find these options a bit game-y so I'm just going to accept the full list of everyone in range. I might then add some parameters. Let's say I'm looking for a new 8, then I might add:

• Position - Is Competent At - Midfielder Centre; AND
• Contract Status - Is Expiring (6 months); AND
• Starting Appearances - Is At Least 5 or 8 or 10 (depending on the time of season)

Towards the end of the season, this will probably give me 5-600 hits. I then apply my custom views to enable me to extract the statistics that I want. I've attached the three I use:

• Scouting - Def Stats
• Scouting - Off Stats
• Scouting - GK Stats

Self-explanatory - defensive, offensive and goalkeeping stats. For an 8, I'll want to extract both the defensive and offensive stats. So I'll first set the defensive view to extract the data.

You do this by clicking anywhere on the screen that is not hyperlinked (a player's name would be hyperlinked, for example). This will highlight a player's line. Then (for Windows), press Ctrl+A to highlight all line; then Ctrl+P to print the screen. Do not click the top player, then shift-click to the bottom player in the list. This will, regardless of the number of players in the list, extract data for only the top 256 players.

Select the Web Page option and save it somewhere useful. You now have the data (and need to repeat this for the offensive stats).

Step 2 - Get set up in Excel

Ok, so now you want your data to manipulatable in excel. First step is just to open excel, and then open the html file you have saved in Step 1 above. 

The first thing I then do is hit 'Save As' and change the file type to a .xlsx to ensure full functionality. If, like in the example of an 8, I need to combine offensive and defensive stats - then cut and paste both into the one file NOW, before you start altering the order of players in the spreadsheet.

I will then add two rows beneath the column headers, like this:

Row 2 I will use for calculating averages for each column; the second I will use to apply filters as shown.

The averages are calculated as subtotals, so that averages are only ever calculated against the players you have filtered out rather than the whole extract. To do this, it's a nice simple excel formula to be added into Row 2 for the first row of statistics. In mine this is Apps. The formula is:

Quote

=SUBTOTAL(1,"enter top cell in the tow" : "enter bottom cell in the row")

Either entering the cell numbers of dragging over the selection you wish to subtotal is fine. Mine is shown below for clarity:

You can then autofill the same calculation across every cell in row 2, using the standard excel drag and paste function (grabbing the bottom-right of the cell, I don't think I need to explain this one right?!)

The last thing I do now is get rid of a few things:

• Delete columns I don't want - maybe Personality because I don't have enough data
• Use the Replace function to replace all "-" with "0"
  • Important note here - you can do this for all statistic columns EXCEPT xGOP (Over-performance). Just make sure to exclude that one
• Use the Replace function to replace "km" with " "

Ok, now you're good to go.

Step 3 - Custom Stats

At this point, I might set up some custom statistics using the raw data that is available. To use one example, I might add a column for "xG over-performance per 90" to make it more comparable for players who have played fewer games. Nice and easy, but add a new column and add the formula =(xGOP/minutes)*90. You can then drag and copy for the whole column. Easy.

I might also add percentage of successful pressures (=successful pressures / total pressures), or net possession impact (= gained possession - lost possession).

Nothing here is complicated in the slightest. The only limitations are the statistics that are available in game and your imagination in creating them. A favourite of mine was prompted by Lee Scott / FM Analysis / Forza - goal contributions as a percentage of the team (= (Goals per 90 + Assists per 90) / Team Goals per 90. It lets me see if some good players are hidden in underperforming sides.

Step 4 - Normalising

I then want to create a normalised scale so that everything is a comparison against the player's peers with 1.00 being the mean. This was the purpose of adding the row for averages at the top. It's just a case of now comparing against that average.

To do so, I'll add a column next to the statistic I wish to normalise - let's say header success rate. I'll then add a formula which compares each player's rating against the average. Again, really simple but using my spreadsheet and wanting to compare the values in Column O to the average it'll be:

Quote

=IF(O4=0,"0",O4/0$2)

In case you don't know, adding the $ before the 2 means that when I drag and paste the formula down the column, excel will not change the cell to which the comparison is made. But not having a $ before the O means I can just copy and paste this to the next ranking column I wish to add. Mine will then look like this

I'm sure you know but, just in case, you can add the colour gradients by highlighting every cell in Column P and then clicking on Conditional Formatting (in Home tab) > Colour Scales and this is the top-left option. Again, trying to make it as simple as possible.

I will then add Ranking columns for all the statistics I wish to use in the overall play ranking. So, let's say for an 8 I'll add rankings for:

• Header %
• Tackle %
• Distance per 90
• Pressure %
• Dribbles per 90
• Progressive passes per 90
• Goal contributions as a percentage of the team
• Net possession ranking

As a rule, I will try to avoid nominal numbers (e.g. numbers of tackles made per game) and instead prioritise percentages which indicate success levels. There's too much subjectivity to the nominal numbers depending on the system that a player is used in, how successful their team is, etc etc. For some statistics you have no option and for some the nominal numbers are still indicative, if not perhaps informative, but I just prefer the objective stats.

Step 5 - Adding the Weighting / Deviation

Before I get any total ranking, I'll add in a column containing the league deviations I talked about here. I'll do this by copying and pasting the 'Weighting' tab from the attached "FM League weightings.xlsx" as a second tab to the spreadsheet I've been working on above.

I'll then add a new column in the main tab for "Weighting" or "Deviation" or whatever you want to call it. I then need excel to add the correct number to this column - which is why I needed the player's division in the initial export from FM. We do this with a simple VLOOKUP formula like this:

Quote

=VLOOKUP(E8,Weighting!$B$5:$C$70,2,FALSE)

The important part here is that excel is looking for the list in the right place. For the bit of the formula "Weighting!$B$5:£C$70" you can just drag and highlight the two columns that you want excel to look at - the division name and the deviation number on the weighting tab. You will then need to manually add the $ signs - so that when you drag and paste that formula onto the rest of the column, the reference list remains the same.

One item to note - in the Weighting tab, I have manually added the names of the leagues which are in my game - note that I'm using the leagues' proper names. If you have any leagues loaded which I don't, or you are using a different language, or you don't have the real league names, then you will need to correct this column yourself. Nice and easy, just copy and paste the right name from the game.

Accents etc (when using English) also get exported in a weird way - so occasionally the Niké Liga, for example, will be exported as Niké liga and you'll need to adjust the spreadsheet accordingly. You'll notice the error if you get an N/A in the deviation column because the VLOOKUP has been unable to find a reference.

Ok, so with luck it's now looking something like this:

Now you just need to do some scoring.

Step 6 - Scoring

Again, really simple. Just add a column, call it whatever you like - maybe "8 ranking including weighting". You then will need to sum all the normalised scores that you want to use to assess your chosen player and multiply by the deviation. So, for me, it'd be something like this:

Quote

=(P8+T8+Y8+AH8)*K8

Where P8, T8, Y8 and AH8 correspond to the columns of four stats I'm wanting to use to compare the players and K8 is the column containing the weighting / deviation.

I will then apply whatever other filters I may wish to employ - let's say filtering out all players under 6 foot.

I can then re-order the entire spreadsheet using the filter on the "8 ranking including weighting" column by highest to lowest... and hey-presto, there are the players with the best statistical output in my selection, weighted by how strong their league is.

Step 7 - Scouting

I then just go through the players manually. If Kevin de Bruyne comes out top of my list of 8s, well I know there's no point in looking at him. But I'll search for viable players in FM, then send my scouts off to watch them and get their opinion to add to my statistical meanderings.

 

----------------------------------------

CAVEAT

Is this the "BEST WAY OF SCOUTING OMGZ I FOUND ALL DA WONDERKIDZZZZ!!!!". No.

Or maybe, I don't know.

Are the weightings perfect? Absolutely not. Who knows if they're even a reasonable way to separate out players. It's just something I wanted to do in an effort to normalise statistical outputs between disparate leagues. It might be rubbish for all I know. But I'm having fun giving it a shot and it seems like other people are also keen on trying it.

So feel free. I've attached the weightings and the scouting views that I use to get the data.

I think people should be able to come up with their own custom stats, their own preferred statistics and their own views on which statistics are key for which profiles. Always keen to see other people's ideas on how to manipulate data.

And lastly, I know I'm probably missing several excel tricks on how to do this better. I'm not an expert by any means - I'm just trying to find the simplest way of making this workable for my tiny little brain. Again, always keen to hear other people's methods and shortcuts. Have fun with it.

Forza Feralpi!

 

Scouting - GK Stats.fmf Scouting - Off Stats.fmf Scouting - Def Stats.fmf FM league weightings.xlsx

Edited November 17, 2023 by Shrewnaldo

[Henke90]

Oh boy that's a lot of numbers shrew! Really fascinating approach to the game and one I really wish I had the patience for!

It's a massive shame about the bug. Have you given SI your findings or been in contact with staff? You've got a sufficient reputation within the community for them to take you seriously with this! 

One of my save ideas this year was to move away from possession-based 4-3-3 football which I'm just a bit bored of and go more counter attack... I'm loathed to start this now knowing what I know now. I just really hope that by the time I actually finish my beta save it will be fixed! 

[Shrewnaldo]

1 hour ago, Henke90 said:

Oh boy that's a lot of numbers shrew! Really fascinating approach to the game and one I really wish I had the patience for!

It's a massive shame about the bug. Have you given SI your findings or been in contact with staff? You've got a sufficient reputation within the community for them to take you seriously with this! 

One of my save ideas this year was to move away from possession-based 4-3-3 football which I'm just a bit bored of and go more counter attack... I'm loathed to start this now knowing what I know now. I just really hope that by the time I actually finish my beta save it will be fixed! 

Well that's nice of you to say, but I doubt anyone at SI knows me from Adam. And if they did, probably only as some whinging fan.

I was going to raise a ticket, but checked in the General Feedback Thread and there's already a report thread which people are adding to. The only acknowledgement is that it's "under review". I haven't seen any confirmation from SI that they've accepted this is an issue which needs fixed, or what might come with the next patch.

The next patch is coming in the "near future", which is obviously deliberately vague. So who knows. It'd be good to see a list of acknowledged bugs and issues from SI - then noting which ones will definitely be addressed in the next patch, which might be and which will have to wait. Obvious why they don't, of course, but it's be nice 

 

[SixPointer]

I honestly admire the great Length and depths you go to. As football becomes more and more stats oriented the more chance you’ve got off become a true football analyst!

[Shrewnaldo]

22 hours ago, SixPointer said:

I honestly admire the great Length and depths you go to. As football becomes more and more stats oriented the more chance you’ve got off become a true football analyst!

Cheers SP - I've no real ambition to be involved in IRL football but maybe I should find out how much analysts are paid first...Director of Football might be more my style.

-----------------------------------------

 

I still can't make my mind up whether or not to play on despite the goals bug. I've been really enjoying the save and want to keep playing, but my last two games were 4-2 and 5-2 wins... despite playing what I'd consider a conservative style of football. Every time I run a holiday test to get some numbers on what this looks like going forward, the goal-inflation gets worse and worse... but I'm bored and still want to play. Frustrating.

[Shrewnaldo]

Money Troubles

Leoni del Garda - FeralpiSalò

The ridiculous number of goals is still bothering me so I'm playing quite a bit slower than I'd otherwise like, but I was enjoying the save too much to stop completely. As such, I'm approaching the end of season 3 - our second complete campaign in charge at FeralpiSalò and things are looking rosy. Or at least they are on the pitch. Behind the scenes, it's not quite the same story.

Following the 10th place finish last season, we've gone from strength-to-strength. All-but-one of the summer recruitments have been hits - particularly midfielders Coli Saco and Mohamed Diaby, but primarily loanee striker Youssef Chermiti. The most pleasing aspect of the success has been that it's come whilst we've stuck to the low-block, direct counter-attacking principles.

We have the lowest average possession in the league (39%) but take the second-most shots (396) and have the third-highest xG (52.91). Our direct style is probably most clear in the following table I've cobbled together. We take a shot every 24.9 successful passes - that's 17 fewer passes than the league average.

The one disappointment has been the quality of those shots - with our xG per shot being just 0.134, worse than 13 other sides in the league and I'm not entirely sure why. Interesting, if you compare the xG per shot to the one I calculated in this post, you'll see that our average has fallen by a negligible 0.003 xG per shot. You'll also see that Spezia were the best team in the league with 0.14xG/shot. This term, there are no fewer than 8 teams exceeding that level. Why? Who knows.

Regardless, we're doing rather well and whilst I don't think we'll make it into the top two spots for automatic promotion, we're well placed to take a playoff spot. All of which is rather pleasing given the financial constraints we are working under.

Our current wage budget is the lowest in the league - a full half a million (12%) below the next lowest and 52% below the league average. And the really good news is that the board have now cut that budget by a further 20%. 

We're already down to the bare bares. I've jettisoned the under-20 and under-18 squads, including all the associated staff. Our first-team squad can only fill the bench (12) when everyone is fit and available. I have spent money on one player, splashing a massive £25,500 on Croatian Marijan Cabraja whilst relying on free transfers and loans for the rest. Meanwhile we can't ever sell players for good money because they tend to tell me they're going to see out their contract 18 months before it expires. And we haven't been out of debt since September 2023.

Obviously the problem is our income. Our 'home' games, played at Mantova's Danilo Martelli because our expansion arrived 3 days too late for FM to recognise, attract an average of 2111 (unsurprisingly the lowest in the league). Our gate receipts won't raise £1m for the whole season, neither will the TV revenue. Together they'll cover about half of our player wages for the year. That's unsustainable.

So what to do about it?

I think there are only three solutions here: a takeover, player sales or promotion. We've had three collapsed takeovers but, to be honest, I really don't want to have my save ruined by a tycoon. Without a more-typical FM recruitment policy of signing young players with sell-on potential, I think selling our way out of debt is incredibly unlikely - and I don't want to deviate from the principles of the save. I guess this is just part of the challenge. So perhaps it is, literally, promotion or bust.

We have Spezia (3rd, A), Brescia (5th, H) and Cagliari (2nd, A) as three of our remaining seven matches. Perhaps victory in Sardinia would give us an outside chance of overhauling the 5-haul gap to second, but I find that very unlikely. 5th to 8th will enter a playoff preliminary round, with the winners entering the playoff semis alongside the teams that finish 3rd and 4th - with a final then deciding the last promotion spot.

Our record against the bigger sides is pretty handy - Sampdoria being the only side that's beaten us from the current playoff contenders. The counter system is particularly effective when teams come attack us, but I've struggled against Il Doria, I think purely down to the quality of player at their disposal - especially their outstanding front two of Estanis Pedrola and Antonino La Gumina. Let's hope we avoid Samp should we get to the playoffs.

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A little on the wider world in which Naldo Toporagno is struggling against the financial handcuffs... first up in Serie B where Signor Toporango is facing some interesting counterparts. Filippo Inzaghi is in charge of Cagliari, Alessandro Nesta at Cittadella and Daniele De Rossi at Crotone. I do love these sorts of developments.

It gets better in Serie A with Graham Potter's Lazio, Arne Slot's Milan, Ralph Hassenhuttl's Monza and, my personal favourite, Javier Saviola's Sassuolo. Inter, having won back-to-back scudetti, have just sacked Simone Inzaghi as city rivals Milan look most likely to take the title.

In England, Man City look set to regain the title Liverpool, under Unai Emery, took from them last season. Klopp left for Real but finds himself in third having won La Liga by a point in 24/25. The other leagues are going exactly the way you'd expect with PSG, Bayern et al retaining their titles - although worth noting that Tuchel, Kane and co beat Emery's Liverpool in last year's Champions League Final. 

Just imagine, all that money. Maybe one day.

Forza Feralpi!

 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Shrewnaldo

[Shrewnaldo]

Or... perhaps there's a fourth option to solve the financial crisis.

Leave.

Of all the offers that could come in, this is one of the few Italian options that I am genuinely tempted by. Parma are currently bottom of Serie A but hardly out of touch, just 3 points from safety with 9 games to go. With 90s nostalgia galore, some really lovely kits, an actual stadium where they can play at home... this is a genuinely tempting offer. Thoughts?