Round of 16 - how many favourites to go through?

[noikeee]

In a rather unusual knockout stage arrangement, although this is a pretty close World Cup where lots of surprises have happened, we have a rather clear pack of 8 favourite teams facing off 8 lower reputation teams. By the 8 favourites I obviously mean the 5 world champions - Brazil, Argentina, France, Spain and England - the 2 former finalists (in recent times, even) Netherlands and Croatia, and us Portugal who tend to also be considered thereabouts on the group of favourites, based mostly on squad ability on paper and European Championships performances rather than World Cups.

That being said, this is an open World Cup and we can definitely see space here for some of these teams losing. Netherlands-USA and Portugal-Switzerland appear particularly close matches on paper and who knows if others like Senegal and Japan and Morocco cannot also surprise other teams. So how many of the big 8 will win? I'm thinking maybe 6 or 7?

Poll closes in a few hours just before the Netherlands game! This is a crazy fast paced World Cup where there's zero days of rest between the groups and the knockouts...

[Mr Wallin]

I expect some "big" team to mess up but I wouldn't be surprised if it's 8 out of 8 tbh.

The one that is a close match is Portugal v Switzerland, the rest shouldn't be. But of course England can be England and make a mess of it. And Netherlands of today isn't as strong as one expects Netherlands to be. Japan could use the momentum to overwhelm Croatia. And Spain needs to rev back up after ditching the Japan game. But that's just a lot of "but"s, I voted for 7.

[Pukey]

I feel like at least one one the favourites gets knocked out, I'd actually be surprised if all of them go through. The only non-favourite I cannot picture getting through is Poland.

[skybluedave]

Yeah, everyone has shown weaknesses so why not. Feels like a proper open WC

Edited December 3, 2022 by skybluedave

[Astafjevs]

There's usually one that makes a meal of it, but I'm finding it hard to predict which one. Holland seems the most likely from the draw and how they play, plus who they're playing. Would probably add Portugal next but only because Switzerland are just going to make it awkward.

I'm not including Japan-Croatia in this because I don't see Croatia as that clear a favourite, if at all.

Argentina you'd say have the capacity to struggle, but I think they're getting better with every game, and Australia are pretty **** tbh.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Astafjevs

[silentwars]

USA to beat Holland

Argentina/France/England/Brazil/Spain/Portugal all to go through IMO

Croatia/Japan - I expect Croatia to win but it could go either way

[martinji]

out of interest I looked at the bookies odds for each of the favourites to go through (from oddschecker)

in order of most favoured to most likely to be an upset:

Argentina  1/9;  Brazil  1/8;  France  1/7;  England and Spain both 3/11;  Portugal 10/21;  Netherlands  1/2;  Croatia  5/9

if we assumed these odds were broadly accurate, but factor them down a little bit for the bookies over-round (usually c.10%), says we should expect on average about 6 of the favourites to go through.

[thefmveteran86]

I'd like Morocco to beat Spain, USA to beat the Netherlands and possibly Japan to beat Croatia to go through given this is the most unpredictable World Cup in recent memory

[Rob1981]

Yeah, Japan v Croatia I wouldn't have down as that much of an upset.

Likewise Switzerland beating Portugal or USA beating Netherlands

Think one of the big boys will slip up somewhere though.  Maybe Morocco to beat Spain.  Can't see Poland getting past France but you never know.  Poland have got to turn up sooner or later, and even with Mbappe on the pitch France conceded goals against both Australia and Denmark.

[XuluBak]

Went 5. Of the 8 "favorites," France and Argentina are the only ones I'd consider "safe." Brazil and England should overwhelm their opponents on talent alone, but weren't that convincing. The four other matches are near coinflips to me. 

[noikeee]

The right answer was 7. Morocco the only that shocked.

[silentwars]

I went with 7 but I thought it was going to be the US not Morocco.