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fm23 still too many old players in squads in future and not enough youth development


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6 hours ago, Spurs08 said:

I do think part of it is just that so many people on this forum are from England, and our national team currently has a squad with an unusually high number of talented young players, which people then assume must be the norm.

I don't think it is that as it isn't just down to international teams.

The thing that really stands out to me in my game in 22 that highlights the problem is the list of top 50 players in the world. I'm about 11 seasons in now and the last list contained only 4 or 5 regens which is crazy considering the passage of time. 

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37 minutes ago, Neil Brock said:

I think there is an element of this - we've set an expectation with previous FM's that any player with the right arm around them can reach their potential. The real life reality is that sometimes even with the best will in the world, they just can't. 

That's not to say 'everything is perfect, so stop talking about it :D' - it's more just things have been changed to try and make things realistic - that players can develop beyond the age of 24 and they aren't maxed out to their potential at say 21 if you do everything 'right'. It's just that upward curve is slower which has thrown managers who are used to rapidly increasing players. 

I just went through a transfer window where I went with a cheaper 26 year old winger over a promising 20 year old in my price range because I felt the younger winger wouldn't be useful this season and if I got promoted, they would probably be multiple seasons away. I cursed the youth development system before realizing that was the realistic decision. No chance in real life a promotion contender decides to bleed in a 20 year old fringe player with potential.

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vor 7 Minuten schrieb KingCanary:

I don't think it is that as it isn't just down to international teams.

The thing that really stands out to me in my game in 22 that highlights the problem is the list of top 50 players in the world. I'm about 11 seasons in now and the last list contained only 4 or 5 regens which is crazy considering the passage of time. 

In 11 seasons all those 16-19 years old top youngsters like Ansu Fati, Pedri, Bellingham, or Endrick are in their prime (age). If there are still 4-5 newgens only 3 years later, then there are huge problems but this won't be the case. 

Edited by Daveincid
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1 minute ago, Daveincid said:

In 11 seasons all those 16-19 years old top youngsters like Ansu Fati, Pedri, Bellingham, or Endrick are in their prime (age). If there are still 4-5 newgens only 3 years later, then there are huge problems but this won't be the case. 

I would agree if that was the kind of players dominating that list but it is full of players aged 35 plus. 

There are regens in my game who are 26/27 year olds- any comparable list right now but would be full of players in that age bracket. A quick scan of the current Guardian 100 best players shows 16 players aged 25 and under in the list (which 11 seasons into the game would by definition have to be newgens in FM). There is clearly something off with a list that is so heavily weighted towards older players. 

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vor 1 Minute schrieb KingCanary:

I would agree if that was the kind of players dominating that list but it is full of players aged 35 plus. 

There are regens in my game who are 26/27 year olds- any comparable list right now but would be full of players in that age bracket. A quick scan of the current Guardian 100 best players shows 16 players aged 25 and under in the list (which 11 seasons into the game would by definition have to be newgens in FM). There is clearly something off with a list that is so heavily weighted towards older players. 

I agree that there are some players which are keeping their high CA for too long, which would be a db-issue (too high rating for natural fitness). Comparing a list with the worlds top 100 with a top 50 ingame is not really a great example to be honest^^ There is something off, and it is: 1. reputation for younger players is too low and while the general CA-distribution looks pretty solid, there are Nations which do have issues developing the next generation of top players. And this includes England. This is probably why this topic gets such a big focus. I've not seen 1 post complaining why the average age of China's national team in 2030 is about 21 :lol:

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8 minutes ago, Daveincid said:

I agree that there are some players which are keeping their high CA for too long, which would be a db-issue (too high rating for natural fitness). Comparing a list with the worlds top 100 with a top 50 ingame is not really a great example to be honest^^ There is something off, and it is: 1. reputation for younger players is too low and while the general CA-distribution looks pretty solid, there are Nations which do have issues developing the next generation of top players. And this includes England. This is probably why this topic gets such a big focus. I've not seen 1 post complaining why the average age of China's national team in 2030 is about 21 :lol:

I struggle to understand why comparing a real life list of the best players vs a game created list purporting to show the same thing isn't a good example? Surely this sort of list is exactly what the top 50 list in game is trying to recreate?

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Gerade eben schrieb KingCanary:

I struggle to understand why comparing a real life list of the best players vs a game created list purporting to show the same thing isn't a good example? Surely this sort of list is exactly what the top 50 list in game is trying to recreate?

I'm pretty sure that the average age of the last 50 in the top 100 list is lower as in the top half. If not, I'll take the blame :D Beside that it depends how the awards are set in the db. If they go by reputation, by CA or a mix. So comparing real life lists with ingame awards is a tricky thing anyway

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10 hours ago, Dotsworthy said:

We have a ticket in the bug tracker that I raised a while back. People are welcome to continue adding examples there.

 

 

We need a new ticket now that we have more data on where the problem relies. A specific ticket with the issue "Young Players doesn't develop their reputation fast enough" or "Manager AI prioritize reputation too much" should be good tickets.

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Il 13/12/2022 in 10:13 , Neil Brock ha scritto:

Secondly, players need to be playing at a level suitable for them. If they're far too good for the U18s, they'll develop initially then eventually stagnate. If you move them too early and they're overmatched, again that'll stall their development. It's about finding the sweet spot of playing at a suitable level for the most gains. Often you'll find they hit a level where they're too good for the U18s/U23s (depending what reserve levels are available in the league you're playing in) but not good enough to get anything more than the odd cameo appearance in the first team. That's when a loan move is the best thing for their development. 

My problem with the last paragraph is that AI teams, especially in nations where B teams are a thing, do not understand when players become too good for the B team, and do not offer them for loan leaving them to rot in the 2nd team. So they do not get playing time in the first team and neither they get loaned out.
Moreover, in the rare cases they do decide to loan them, there is an incredibly low demand and they almost every time do not manage to get them loaned. I especially noticed it when players reach like a 130-40sh CA, major league teams just do not make any loan offers for them.

This is particularly noticeable in big teams such as Barcelona or Real Madrid, where a high CA is required to get any playing time in the first team, and players often do not manage to reach an acceptable level to make it just because they do not get loaned. That gap never gets filled.

Have you noticed these problems as well? Can we expect to see AI management of this particular aspect to be improved?

Edited by abcdf
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5 horas atrás, abcdf disse:

My problem with the last paragraph is that AI teams, especially in nations where B teams are a thing, do not understand when players become too good for the B team, and do not offer them for loan leaving them to rot in the 2nd team. So they do not get playing time in the first team and neither they get loaned out.
Moreover, in the rare cases they do decide to loan them, there is an incredibly low demand and they almost every time do not manage to get them loaned. I especially noticed it when players reach like a 130-40sh CA, major league teams just do not make any loan offers for them.

This is particularly noticeable in big teams such as Barcelona or Real Madrid, where a high CA is required to get any playing time in the first team, and players often do not manage to reach an acceptable level to make it just because they do not get loaned. That gap never gets filled.

Have you noticed these problems as well? Can we expect to see AI management of this particular aspect to be improved?

Well, I'm not saying it's not something to look for, but here in Portugal that happens a lot.

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2 hours ago, andu1 said:

Meet Luan Junior.

Scoring 22 at the age of 17 for Anderlecht then bought by Tottenham at 19.

Already has 17 caps for Belgium. No.. He's not Mexican

image.thumb.png.b633fc346a467c2b412967631c23b71f.png

I don't think Belgium is a nation with this problem though. Its more the big ones england,spain,france,italy, germany that have issues with younger players coming through and getting caps for the national team. 

If you get a chance to look and check those nations would be interesting to know how many young players like Luan Junior those bigger nations have in their national teams. 

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19 ore fa, Razor940 ha scritto:

Well, I'm not saying it's not something to look for, but here in Portugal that happens a lot.

It happens a lot because in real life players do develop in second teams as well and are ready to become first team players right off the bat. In the game they don’t. If they are too good for the league they are playing in, the do not develop at all.

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10 hours ago, Zapoleon said:

I don't think Belgium is a nation with this problem though. Its more the big ones england,spain,france,italy, germany that have issues with younger players coming through and getting caps for the national team. 

If you get a chance to look and check those nations would be interesting to know how many young players like Luan Junior those bigger nations have in their national teams. 

Ok.. Here it is.. I don't think the squads average age is that high tbh... I mean why would the AI play bring this U21 newgen in the first team when he's clearly worse than Tammy Abraham at 31?

 

 

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Although if there is one thing i would criticize is that players like Raheem Sterling should not have those physicals at 34... Acceleration 18, pace 15. I think they should start to drop a bit more after 33 or so.

This could be the reason why these players are kept in the squads.. Basically just ignore his age because according to his stats he should be 27-28.

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22 minutes ago, andu1 said:

Although if there is one thing i would criticize is that players like Raheem Sterling should not have those physicals at 34... Acceleration 18, pace 15. I think they should start to drop a bit more after 33 or so.

This could be the reason why these players are kept in the squads.. Basically just ignore his age because according to his stats he should be 27-28.

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The high physicals are most likely due to his maximum natural fitness of 20. 

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vor 1 Minute schrieb obasa_G:

The high physicals are most likely due to his maximum natural fitness of 20. 

This. This is more of a research issue because across the whole db, old players actually decrease fast enough (even a bit too fast if you compare CA-values only). So the "game code" looks solid, the data within the database needs some tweaks.

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6 hours ago, andu1 said:

Ok.. Here it is.. I don't think the squads average age is that high tbh... I mean why would the AI play bring this U21 newgen in the first team when he's clearly worse than Tammy Abraham at 31?

 

 

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Thanks for the post, is interesting to see. If you get the chance to sim a few years further would be interesting to see how it looks further down the line. 

To me, it does seem like a pretty old squad. 

The squad England sent to the 2022 world cup, is kinda old on average when you look at all the ages. But within that squad there was a decent amount of youth. 

English squad at WC

One 19 year old

One 21 year old

One 22 year old

Two 23 year olds.

Two 24 year olds

Spanish squad at WC

1 21 year old

4 20 year olds

1 18 year old 

1 19 year old

Game wise In particular it does seem like anyone under 25ish struggles to break into the squads. Of those nations that have been mentioned. 

I think it is perhaps within reason and realistic that certain squads will just happen to be on the old side at certain points, like in real life maybe England will have a bad few years where not enough young talent is coming through.

However, I don’t think its within reason or realistic that such nations like England have ZERO younger players coming through. 

There should be some 19 year old, some 21 year old etc etc in those squads. Instead, though they are filled with over 25's. 

 

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One of the issues has to be because old players just don't decline quickly enough IMO. I'm in 2028 and 36 year old Mo Salah still has 15 pace and 16 acceleration, he still has 170 current ability.  This is a guy with 600 career games and 100 international games, playing in one of the toughest leagues in the world, no way he's going to last as still an elite athlete at 36, and he only has 17 natural fitness, so what can players with 20 natural fitness do?  

Players IRL like Modric still going at elite level past their mid 30s should be rare, they are freaks. But in FM it's pretty common to have multiple players like this and particularly they don't seem to lose very much physically even in very demanding positions.

If you look at the big teams later in the game, it's pretty common for more than half their squad to be 30 or over. 

I think older players there needs to be a push to having more 'Gareth Bales' so players more declining at 31,32,33, rather than more 'Modric's' where they don't seem to start declining until about 35/36 or even later. That way CAs of those players would drop and the AI would seek to replace them. 

Maybe there is just too much use of good natural fitness about or maybe decline shouldn't just be linked to natural fitness but also stuff like professionalism and ambition.  So some players just decline earlier through lack of hunger to keep training hard etc. 

 

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1 hour ago, tajj7 said:

One of the issues has to be because old players just don't decline quickly enough IMO. I'm in 2028 and 36 year old Mo Salah still has 15 pace and 16 acceleration, he still has 170 current ability.  This is a guy with 600 career games and 100 international games, playing in one of the toughest leagues in the world, no way he's going to last as still an elite athlete at 36, and he only has 17 natural fitness, so what can players with 20 natural fitness do?  

Players IRL like Modric still going at elite level past their mid 30s should be rare, they are freaks. But in FM it's pretty common to have multiple players like this and particularly they don't seem to lose very much physically even in very demanding positions.

If you look at the big teams later in the game, it's pretty common for more than half their squad to be 30 or over. 

I think older players there needs to be a push to having more 'Gareth Bales' so players more declining at 31,32,33, rather than more 'Modric's' where they don't seem to start declining until about 35/36 or even later. That way CAs of those players would drop and the AI would seek to replace them. 

Maybe there is just too much use of good natural fitness about or maybe decline shouldn't just be linked to natural fitness but also stuff like professionalism and ambition.  So some players just decline earlier through lack of hunger to keep training hard etc. 

 

Bale declined because he didn’t football as seriously as he could have. I can definitely see salah still being world class at around 36 but the drop off will be steep thereafter. Ibra, Messi, modric, Ronaldo all world class at 35/36

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Yeah it's my opinion as well that older players like Mo Salah, Sterling like i posted above are way too good at 35-36 that's why the AI keeps using them.

Frankly there is no reason not to use them if they are so good.

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It looks like the pendulum has swung too far towards career longevity. In earlier FMs players had one foot in the grave when they turned 30 and it was only a matter of time before all physical stats (including Strength, which never made any sense) were in the single digits. I think Kimmich lasted until 36 as a Serie A rotation level player in FM20 back when I played a long career in it, and he was a huge, unique outlier.

In FM23, it looks like star players generally don't decline much until their mid 30s. It's not unheard of, we've seen Pepe, Messi & Zlatan carry on as difference makers for a long time, but those guys are the exceptions. It should not be as common as reported here.

I don't know which model is closer to what we see in real life. Calibrating a huge sandbox like FM is a difficult task.

Here's some data. Young footballers of the year from Scotland & Italy between 2001-2010. The first list should be representative of high-end Championship / EPL rotation players. The latter of top players in the most veteran-oriented of the major European leagues.

Scotland

2001: Stilian Petrov - EPL starter until 33 years old
2002    Kevin McNaughton - Championship starter until 31, Championship backup until 34
2003    James McFadden - EPL starter until 27, EPL backup & SPL starter until 31
2004    Stephen Pearson - Championship starter until 31, SPL rotation until 34
2005    Derek Riordan - SPL starter until 28, international journeyman until 33
2006    Shaun Maloney  - EPL starter until 30, EPL rotation until 34
2007    Steven Naismith  - EPL starter until 30, SPL starter until 34
2008    Aiden McGeady - Championship & Russian PL starter until 30, League One starter until 36, still playing
2009    James McCarthy - EPL starter until 26, SPL rotation now at the age of 32
2010    Danny Wilson - MLS starter now as at the age of 30

 

Italy (cutoff misses earlier winners Totti & Nesta who played as Serie A rotation players until 40 & 36, respectively)

2001&2003  Antonio Cassano - Serie A starter until 32, rotation until 34
2002  Matteo Brighi - Serie A starter until 31, rotation until 35, backup until 37
2004  Alberto Gilardino - Serie A starter until 36. Serie B rotation until 38
2005  Giampaolo Pazzini - Serie A starter until 32, Serie B rotation until 37
2006  Daniele De Rossi  - Serie A starter until 35, rotation until 37
2007  Riccardo Montolivo - Serie A starter until 31, rotation until 33
2008 Marek Hamšík  - Serie A starter until 32, still playing in Turkish Super Lig at 35
2009 Alexandre Pato  - Serie A starter until 22, injured a few years, bounced around in Brazil & China & MLS since. Now 33
2010 Javier Pastore  - Ligue 1 starter until 29, still La Liga rotation player at 33

 

I don't really know what conclusions to make here. The SPL winners seem to be close to the "old" FM model where very few players remained viable top league starters after 30. Personally, I find this surprising as the old FM career arc model always felt "wrong" to me.

The Serie A winners are closer to what we see in FM23. A good but nowhere near elite player such as Brighi can hang around as a valuable squad rotation option until his mid-thirties. 36-37 year old Luca Toni / Fabio Quagliarella winning Capocannoniere trophies... The one exception (Pato) had a series of disastrous injuries that derailed his career. I don't know if that really happens in FM still. 

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13 hours ago, andu1 said:

Yeah it's my opinion as well that older players like Mo Salah, Sterling like i posted above are way too good at 35-36 that's why the AI keeps using them.

Frankly there is no reason not to use them if they are so good.

I still don't think FM has found a balance in this situation. I have seen Salah starting for Liverpool at the age of 38 with a pace of 16.

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8 hours ago, TheAwesomeGem said:

I still don't think FM has found a balance in this situation. I have seen Salah starting for Liverpool at the age of 38 with a pace of 16.

Yeah... that's ridiculos.. at that age no player should have a pace of 16. I hope SI will tweak the decline of physical attributes a bit more for the last update.

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On 28/10/2022 at 11:55, Daveincid said:

Read my thread, watch my videos and you'll understand it a lot more :)

 

 

I just want to say 2 things. First , Daveincid saved my faith in FM. If anyone like me want real challenge, use his mods. Im playin CM/ FM for 30 years and Im  100% sure that his mod help a lot.. Before, when i won Premiership, i would win it in next 3-4 seasons 2, then stop playin.. .Now i won Premiership in 7th season with Blackburn, but next season i was 4th. There are 100 things why his mod make game better and more realistic. 

Second, thank you Daveincid for what you did. Thank you so much. 

Btw, im playin FM22. 

Edited by Matej
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3 hours ago, Matej said:

I just want to say 2 things. First , Daveincid saved my faith in FM. If anyone like me want real challenge, use his mods. Im playin CM/ FM for 30 years and Im  100% sure that his mod help a lot.. Before, when i won Premiership, i would win it in next 3-4 seasons 2, then stop playin.. .Now i won Premiership in 7th season with Blackburn, but next season i was 4th. There are 100 things why his mod make game better and more realistic. 

Second, thank you Daveincid for what you did. Thank you so much. 

Btw, im playin FM22. 

I went back to playing FM21 with his mods. Much better long term saves than FM 23. I think FM 23 outside of the match engine is the worst FM since 2018. Match engine wise, I still think it's the best. It's a shame.

Edited by TheAwesomeGem
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I have no data or such for following, it's just observational opinion from an online network game my friend and i have been playing since the day the beta dropped until yesterday. 

15 leagues, database of about 150,000 we started with and yesterday we called it quits as we reached the end of our 7th season. I generally don't pay attention to the hyperbole on the forums when it comes to "bugs" or issues as they generally get smoothed out but the distribution and development of newgens technical stats makes for grim viewing a few season in. 

We both started to notice, which is partly why I decided to post on it as its unusual for my friend and I to agree on much FM related such is our drastically different approaches. As I said we both noticed some real anomalies with high value newgens getting bought up by "big" clubs with what we would consider terrible stats, we then started looking at all the newgens in the world by descending value as well as those in our own youth teams and it was strikingly apparent they seem to 90-95%(horrible generalisation as it could be more or less) that newgens look to have ridiculous physical & mental stats at the ages of 18,19,20 yet they seem to struggle to have more than stats over 11,12 in the technical side.

I'm not sure if this is an issue or not, is this just how FM is now with newgen development or are we suffering from starting our save in the beta and would it look more optimistic should we start a new save(which we're planning to do tonight)?

I'm really enjoying FM23, those first 5/6 season were a blast before I started to have concerns...

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@Hoarau Yeah, there was a bug on the beta where newgens were too strong physically and mentally, but could not develop their technical attributes very well. This was fixed in the first major patch - but if you were already several seasons into a save by then, it's too late to 'fix' those bugged newgens.

If this is a concern, starting a new save now might be a good idea.

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4 minutes ago, tajj7 said:

I am not saying all players should fade at 31 but certainly more should and IMO far too many are still far too good, especially physically at 35/36.

I think Salah is a prime example of someone who probably will struggle in his mid 30s, this is a guy who has played 100s of games in the PL, a high intensity league, in a pressing team and has also had a big career with Egypt jetting off to Afcons mid season, where we saw recently he came back and looked extremely tired. He's also in a position and plays in such a way where he will get fouled a lot, take a lot knocks etc.  These are all signs that logically would point to a high chance of burn out, increased injuries and physical decline way before 34-35.  There is a reason why Liverpool were not going all in on his contract and that is because they didn't want a 33 year old plus Salah on £350k a week when his legs had gone and they knew players of his sort of style and history there is a high chance of that happening. 

Ibrahimovic is a different factor, for a start he has never had any real pace anway and has adapted his game as he got older, he is a target man style player, holds up the ball etc. not constantly running into channels, pressing people or driving past people.  He's had like single figure pace and acceleration for like the last 3-4 FMs to knowledge.

Ronaldo similar, we can see the burden he places on teams because he doesn't really press or move a lot for the team, just focuses his energy in and around the box, he is also more physically set up for winning headers being strong rather than out pacing back lines.

Messi strolls about the park, he is a walking a HUGE amount of time so that is actually an example of what I am talking about, he doesn't have the pace he had or explosive acceleration. 

So really its only Modric and again he's not exactly quick. I don't mind exceptions, some freak athletes still performing at that level in their mid 30s even late 30s, but in FM it's far far too common. You get 6-7-8 years into the game and the top squads are still filled with the same players who have barely dropped a beat, still performing at 34,35,36, as they did at 27,28, 29 etc. and it's just silly IMO. 

IRL it's pretty clear that Liverpool for example are worried about their aging squad, a lot of their key players are in the 28-30 bracket and Liverpool don't want them to decline together. In game you still have Salah, VVD, Fabinho, Robertson etc. looking no different attributes wise at 35/36 than they did at the start of the game, it's just silly IMO and it'll be contributing to why AI teams don't integrate newgens into their squads properly because they pick teams pretty much on CA and these old players their CA stays too high for too long IMO. 

a lot of zlatan’a adaptation is due to his acl injury which killed him physically.

Messi still has pretty decent acceleration though. His top speed is just not great and his work rate is low. His actual physicals haven’t deteriorated to the point where he’s no longer  not one of the best players in the world. Messi has been strolling around the park since 2016. It’s just the way he plays.

I do agree that stats are still a bit too good at 35 but just needs a slight tweak. Don’t want to go back to fm21 where even world class players are no longer useable after 33

 

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I've just opened two tickets on the bug tracker for what I feel are two of the main reason youth develpment is broken:

The AI does not loan their players enough to get them to grow properly, partly because the do not offer them for loan and partly because there is super low demand even when they do offer them.

If you have findings on the matter please add to the posts

 

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I really liked the old NBA 2K system (I can't believe I'm favorably comparing NBA 2K to FM!) where players were assigned development curves.  Some players grew quickly, had a sharp spiky peak, and declined quickly.  Others grew more slowly with later peaks.  The best grew quickly, had long, high, sustained peaks and declined slowly.  I'd kinda like to see something like that implemented in addition to the PA/CA system, where players can have separate growth, peak and decline values blended into a single developmental curve.  That would give some variance to player development and allow for a little more mystery.

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Just as an example of this I drew Inter in the CL so went to look at their team, it's 2030, the first team for their last game the average age of the team is 32.5, the youngest player they had in their starting 11 was 28 and they have 10 players out of their squad of 25 who are 33 or older, 5 players 35 plus. 

Only 6 guys in the whole squad are under 25, none under 20. 

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20 hours ago, Renyy said:

Isn't that already how FM works? It's just that with all the development happening between 16 and 22 it might not be as noticeable. 

Under the new training system, I've never noticed differences in development that couldn't be explained by playing time, with the exception of rare regens who show up as 180 CA 16 year olds.  But even something like 'all the development happening between 16 and 22' is an example of what I'd like to stop happening.  The other end of the development curve, the decline phase, is still really flat, it seems like.  Again, I'd like variance. 

Admittedly, I can't speak to FM 23.  Maybe it's all different and better!  I don't know, I didn't buy it because there are other problems unrelated to development and AI squadbuilding that are absolute dealbreakers for me.  But it is nice to see the same issues coming back year after year.

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10 hours ago, tajj7 said:

Just as an example of this I drew Inter in the CL so went to look at their team, it's 2030, the first team for their last game the average age of the team is 32.5, the youngest player they had in their starting 11 was 28 and they have 10 players out of their squad of 25 who are 33 or older, 5 players 35 plus. 

Only 6 guys in the whole squad are under 25, none under 20. 

Thanks for posting, I do wonder though if Inter is the best example because they do start with a very old squad in the 22/23 season. So realistically for Inter and the Italian league that might actually be within reason. 

IRL I know Inter have a few under 20ish players, But from what I know they only really only use one 19-year-old on a regular base. 

Would be interesting if you looked at a few random clubs from the other top leagues to see if they have the same issue. Because as I say for Inter and Italy that might actually not be out of the norm. However if you have spanish clubs, english clubs etc being top heavy with over 30's too many over 25's and basically no youth then clearly it is a big issue. 

 

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After playing FIFA 23 and simming for 8 years, the AI team building is actually better than Football Manager 23(A game about football management simulation). This could be due to the loan system is not broken in FIFA 23 and that the AI constantly looks to improve the team and plays reserve teams in cup competition.

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