FM22 & FM23 [Experiment] The truth about the Youth Intake preview and the Youth Intake itself. What can change? What you can have an impact on.

[Jimbokav1971]

I recently saw a Youtube video from [Name redacted], (because this isn't about them), about Youth Intakes and I was absolutely astonished by some of the rubbish that was being spouted. It had almost 100,000 views and more than 1,900 likes and it was full of absolute rubbish.

Honestly, it makes me flippin angry when people in the FM Community make a video about something that they know very little about, and then pass it off as if they are some sort of expert or have some sort of insider knowledge that the rest of us don't have access to. It's my pet hate in FM. People pretending that they are the big I am simply to get clicks. It's lazy and it needs to be called out more in my opinion. [/End rant mode]

Initially I posted a reply to the video, (and no I'm not going to link to it in here), but I deleted my post and instead of telling you what I know and what I think, I'm going to run some experiments and let the results speak for themselves. I should add that unfortunately [Name redacted] aren't alone in chatting absolute rubbish about things they know very little about I should have done this long before now but we all know how real life is. 

Where to start? Initially I was going to pick a small Nation (to reduce processing time), and then I was going to select a commonly used structure, (England) & a well known club, (Man Utd), (that more people could relate to), but in the end decided to go with the Brazilian structure because quite simply they produce the best Newgens, (due to their high Nation Youth rating and Game Importance). 
It doesn't matter which club I select because I'm going to use the Editor to change things in order to see how they impact on the Youth Intake. 

It should be mentioned at this stage that there is a point after which some if the player info is hard-coded, (the Youth Intake preview), and first of all I'm going to see what is decided then and what is decided at a much later date. In Portugal, (where I have been playing in FM22), the Youth Intake preview appears in December and the Youth Intake itself appears in March, but it's different in different Nations and in the early years changes by a few days each year. Looking at the Brazilian calendar, I would expect the Youth Intake preview some time in June and the Youth Intake itself some time in September, (but that's a complete guess on my part because it's a LONG time since I managed here). 
I have lots of questions and I will try too go through all of them between now and when FM23 comes out, (it's going to take a while), so I may start listing them. 

If you have questions that you want me to look at, (my style is to let the evidence do the talking and for you to interpret them as you see fit), but there will be some things that I hope to answer categorically yes or no. 

Edited November 17, 2022 by Jimbokav1971
Now playing on FM23

[Jimbokav1971]

The Youth Intake preview. 

If you are anything like me, you don't take a huge amount of notice of the Youth Intake preview. For a start there isn't a lot of info there, and I complained for quite a while that the information it did contained had very little, (if any), direct impact on the Youth Intake itself, (although it appears as if those issues have now been resolved and the preview is indeed a snapshot into what will be coming you way later in the season). 

Let's look at the very 1st intake I have come across in this experiment, (I have holidayed to this point in Brazil).

This is the message as it appears in my inbox, but rather than scrolling through the other positions, instead I'm going to click on Dev Centre - Youth Candidates and it makes things easier to view. 

It still needs some scrolling and this is the hidden section, (so we weren't missing much). 

If you are anything like me you will look straight for the A's and see what position it is. 

This preview suggests that we have a "GK who is a "great prospect" and not 1 but 2 strikers who are regarded as "fine prospects". 

I the move onto the B's. 

We have a centre-mid who likes like a "top prospect" and a winger who looks like a "handy prospect". 

The next thing I look for is the Summary. In this case it tells me that this "has the potential to be a real golden generation for the club". Yeah, if I had a penny for every time I had seen that I would have.... lots of pennies.  What it does, (accurately or not is debatable), is give you an overview of the intake at this preview stage and tell you if it's any good or not.

Something that's important to remember at all times when talking about Youth Intake previews and Youth Intakes themselves is that everything is relative. It's relative to the players you have at your club already. It used to be that each player was compared against the best player (singular), at your club, but there is a certain amount of folly involved in rating a centre-half who might become quite good at centre-half against a striker who might be a worldclass striker is always going to be a rubbish centre-half. I "think"* what happens now is that the player rates your player against the player at your club best able to play in that position, (and how good he is in that position rather than how good he is in his best position). It's also important to remember that these young players are being rated against the CA of your existing players rather than their PA. So they are being rated against how good your existing players are now rather than how good they might become in the future. (An important distinction). 

There is 1 bit of information that many people seem to overlook, and I expect that anyone who plays a Youth Only save regularly will pay close attention to it for obvious reasons.

Intake Distribution by preferred position. 

As well as the quality of the players in each position, the quantity can also be important. You might be a manager who swaps from 1 formation to another and there is a distinct lack of width in this preview, so if you were relying on a fringe wide player to come in and make an impact then you're unlikely to be happy come intake day. On the other hand, if you want to play 2 up front or 3 in the middle then this might be right up your street. 

The next thing I want to so is run this intake 9 more times to see what sort of return we get from 10 previews. 

Preview 2. 

Preview 3. 

Preview 4. 

Preview 5. 

Preview 6. 

Preview 7. 

Preview 8. 

Preview 9. 

Preview 10. 

Because this is only a preview rather than the intake itself, we can't place too much importance on the quality of players. 9 out of the 10 intakes were classed as golden generations, and what seemed strange to me is that the preview with the highest rating of B was still a golden generation, but Preview (with just 1 A rating), wasn't classed as a golden generation. What's in a name eh? 

What is clear though is that before the intake date there is nothing locked in. 

[Jimbokav1971]

Youth Intake day. 

I have continued on from the initial Youth Intake preview that had 1x GK and 2x SC's as "A" talents and 1x MC and 1x winger as "B" talents. It will be interesting to see how that translates to the actual intake itself. 

Technically speaking 2 of the MC's can also play SC, we have a 3rd MC, an AML and a GK. That ties in completely with the preview, (which surprises me a little if I'm honest). 

If there is just 1 thing that you take from this thread then please let it be this. The picture above is lies. 

This is what the truth looks like. 

Actually the real PA from this intake isn't as far removed from the PA star rating. The Top 5 players by PA are also the Top 5 players by Actual PA, (just in a different order). 

Edited May 31, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[Jimbokav1971]

We have continued on from the initial Youth Intake preview to the full Youth Intake Day, and now we have gone back to the previous day 9 times to give us 10 different intakes all from the same preview. 

My plan is to properly dissect this to death, but I'm not going to be doing it all in 1 go. I will do very small comparisons each time so that it doesn't become a huge task. I will just do 1 little thing each time. (Hopefully it should make more sense as I start to progress through it). That way I can do a little bit of this and then return to playing my own save and then come back and do a little bit of this again. I think part of the problem with doing these sorts of experiments is that they become so in depth that they don't leave you any time to actually play the game yourself, (and I don't know about anyone else but that doesn't sound great to me). If you have any particular area that you would like me to look at then please feel free to mention it. Also, if there is anything that you think I have done wrong, or if you think I'm drawing the wrong conclusions from something then just let me know. 

Intake 1. 

Highest CA 95. 
Highest PA 178. 
3 players at 150+ CA. 
8 players at 120+ PA. 

Intake 2. 

Highest CA 90. 
Highest PA 178. 
5 players at 150+ PA. 
8 players at 120+ PA. 

Intake 3. 

Highest CA 118. 
Highest PA 179. 
4 players at 150+ PA. 
7 players at 120+ PA. 

Intake 4. 

Highest CA 91. 
Highest PA 169. 
5 players at 150+ PA. 
8 players at 120+ PA. 

Intake 5. 

Highest CA 100. 
Highest PA 177. 
5 players at 150+ PA. 
7 players at 120+ PA. 

Intake 6. 

Highest CA 112. 
Highest PA 170. 
3 players at 150+ PA. 
7 players at 120+ PA. 

Intake 7. 

Highest CA 103.
Highest PA 161. 
6 players at 150+ PA. 
8 players at 120+ PA.

Intake 8. 

Highest CA 108. 
Highest PA 167. 
4 players at 140+ PA. 
8 players at 120+ PA. 

Intake 9. 

Highest CA 118. 
Highest PA167. 
3 players at 150+ PA. 
8 players at 120+ PA. 

Intake 10. 

Highest CA 94. 
Highest PA 167. 
5 players at 150+ PA.
6 players at 120+ PA.

Edited June 1, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[Jimbokav1971]

First things first. 

Before we start getting carried away, let's deal with the real basics 1st. The basic things that people still argue about which we can clear up once and for all so that we can move on and argue about things that matter. 

Allow me to introduce Ricardo to you, and his 9 alter-ego's. 

Intake 1 Ricardo. 

Intake 2 Ricardo. 

Intake 3 Ricardo. 

Intake 4 Ricardo. 

Intake 5 Ricardo. 

Intake 6 Ricardo. 

Intake 7 Ricardo. 

Intake 8 Ricardo. 

Intake 9 Ricardo. 

Intake 10 Ricardo. 

Let's make a list of all the things that are static and remain the same in each of the 10 profiles. 

1. Name. (Nickname and full name). 
2. Date of birth/Age. 
3. Place of birth. 
4. Nationality. 
5. 2nd Nationality. 
6. Position. (I'm pretty sure that this used to be fluid, but let's not confuse the issue. It definitely isn't fluid now). 
7. Goalkeeper rating. (I think it's probable that this will change and it just so happens that in this instance they are all 10 so I will check this with other players). 

Just for the sake of putting it on record and to confirm that I have checked it, I will also list the things that are fluid and change from save to save. 

1. CA. 
2. PA. 
3. PCA. (Perceived CA. So not how good the player actually is, but how good whoever is compiling the reports things he is).
4. PPA. (Perceived PA).
5. All attributes, (with the exception of GK rating at this stage), (and that means I have to check the outfield rating for the GK). 
6. Best position/role.
7. Personalities. (The personality has to change because all the personalities are variable). 
8. Media Handling style. 
9. PPM's. (There is generally/often a link between the relative strength of a players' ability and the PPM's he comes through with, so if the attributes change then the PPM's need to change too). 
10. Media description. 
11. Height. 
12. Weight. 
13. Preferred foot. (Both footedness has a cost in terms of CA, it stands to reason that if the attributes change then so must the preferred foot info). 
14. Injury susceptibility. (We know that the attributes change, including the hidden attributes, so it makes sense this would be fluid too). 
15. Favoured Personnel. (I "think"* that a staff member on the favoured personnel list influences the make-up of a plyer, but I don't know how). In this case I have an idea for editing the staff members to extreme personalities and then tracking how this impacts on players who come through the intake with them on their favoured personnel list, but that's a long way away at this stage). 

* It's important to differentiate between what we know and what we think so I will always try to be clear when something is just my opinion rather than something which I think is a fact and not up for debate. Just because I "think" something doesn't mean that my mind is closed to the idea of me being wrong. It's basically something that I don't understand fully but I have an idea about how it works that needs ore experience/evidence. 

[Jimbokav1971]

Plans/ideas for the future. 

I've got a few ideas rattling around in my head that I want to look at at some point in the future, so I'm going to add them here so that I don't forget them when I come back to this. 

1. What happens if you edit the CA of the existing players up/down? (I'm expecting that this would impact on the PPA & PCA, but I would like to see it actually happen). 
2. What happens if I reduce/increase the club reputation both before preview and after? 
3. What happens if I reduce/increase the Youth Recruitment/Junior Coaching both before preview and after? 
4. What happens if I edit the HoYD info, both before the preview and after? 
5. What happens if I edit the personality of all staff both before the preview and after? 
6. What happens if I edit the Nationality of all staff both before the preview and after? 
7. What happens if I edit the Youth Rating, both before the preview and after? 
8. I can't remember the name of it, (and I also can't find it in the Editor), but what happens if I edit the "Footballing Importance" or whatever it's called? 
9. What happens if I edit the Professional status of the club, both before the preview and after? 
10. What happens if I edit the Training Facilities/Youth Facilities both before the preview and after? 
11. What happens if I edit the Affiliations, both before the preview and after? 
12. What happens if I edit the Nation reputation, both before the preview and after? 
13. What happens if you compare 10 different Youth Intakes from the same preview to 10 different intakes from 10 different previews? @SoSolidSnake
14. What single thing has the biggest impact on the quality of a Youth Intake? (This is immediately subjective because it depends if you are looking at CA or PA). Most of us look at CA in terms of the stars, but if you can't develop the player from his low CA starting point to his potential PA then the high PA doesn't really mean anything. 
15. Why do low rep clubs often seem to get players from Secondary Nations in their Intakes with high PA relative to the rest of the intake? 
16. It is commonly believed that the 1st intake of each save, (for all clubs), is boosted for some reason. Is there any truth to this or is it just an old FM players tale? 
17. In terms of player development is there an experiment that we could run that would compare development of players who stayed in the U19's players who were given a couple/few outings in the 1st Team, and the same player going out on loan at a lower level? @Mandy42
18. What is the difference in terms of development, between a player spending a season in the U19's and the same player spending a season in the U23's? @Parmie
19. What influences the Nationality & Secondary Nationality of players? @OlivierL

 

Feel free to suggest others, (but no promise that I will get to them). 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[SoSolidSnake]

What would be interesting to know is to what extent CA/PA can change in youth intake day. 

In your example above, the highest PA moved between the 160-180 range. You could argue that's a fairly big range, but is that range set in stone on youth preview day? Or would it be possible to get a 200 PA player from just rerolling enough times on YI day?

[Jimbokav1971]

40 minutes ago, SoSolidSnake said:

What would be interesting to know is to what extent CA/PA can change in youth intake day. 

In your example above, the highest PA moved between the 160-180 range. You could argue that's a fairly big range, but is that range set in stone on youth preview day? Or would it be possible to get a 200 PA player from just rerolling enough times on YI day?

I think the basic experiment to track that would be 10 different Youth Intake Days from 10 different Youth Intake Previews. It's certainly doable and is something I have thought about before. I will add it to the list. 

[Edit]

I appreciate 10 saves is a tiny number, but the truth is I just can't be bothered to do 100, (which would give great info I think). 10 gives us an idea at least. 

Edited June 2, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[XaW]

I love this and will follow the results here with much interest! Especially the part of different favoured persons, since it might mean my "ignore actual abilities and focus on personality/media handling" for all staff members might be proven to be a good idea (or not, as it were).

[Britrock]

11 hours ago, SoSolidSnake said:

What would be interesting to know is to what extent CA/PA can change in youth intake day. 

In your example above, the highest PA moved between the 160-180 range. You could argue that's a fairly big range, but is that range set in stone on youth preview day? Or would it be possible to get a 200 PA player from just rerolling enough times on YI day?

From what I remember seeing elsewhere, on the preview day the range for CA/PA is set for each player (e.g. -10, -9, -8 etc) and then on the youth intake day the CA/PA is selected within that range. 

[Jimbokav1971]

7 hours ago, XaW said:

I love this and will follow the results here with much interest! Especially the part of different favoured persons, since it might mean my "ignore actual abilities and focus on personality/media handling" for all staff members might be proven to be a good idea (or not, as it were).

I can neither confirm nor deny that I absolutely 100% completely agree with you,  but this isn't about what you "think" or what I "think", it's about what the results tell us. 

[Jimbokav1971]

1 hour ago, Britrock said:

From what I remember seeing elsewhere, on the preview day the range for CA/PA is set for each player (e.g. -10, -9, -8 etc) and then on the youth intake day the CA/PA is selected within that range. 

I don't think I have used the pre-game editor since the CM days, (it was a long time ago anyway), so while I know roughly what the -10, -9, -8 etc is, I would find it very hard to explain to someone else in this thread for example. I am FAR from an expert. 

That being said, even if I am to take what you have said as absolute gospel, (and in fact I do believe that it certainly used to be done this way), there is no guarantee that what was done in the past is what is being done now. I say that with special reference to the fact that we know that the "Youth Intake Preview" is a relatively new addition as a feature, so if they changed that...... what else have they changed. 

Something that In have certainly been guilty of in various issues of FM is assuming that how things worked in 1 issue of the game, is how they would work in subsequent issues of the game. With often no communication from SI Towers we can't have known that things have changed, and it's only have much playing that we decide that we think they have changed, but we don't know how they have changed. 

In this instance, and using Henrique Simal and Henrique Honorato as examples just because they have 2 names which makes them stand out, let's look at their CA/PA.

Henrique Simal. 77/153 68/146 69/142 72/157 78/177 83/187 70/146 73/153 67/134 76/155 His PA ranges from 142-187 which according to my basic understanding doesn't fit him into any 1 of the existing ranges. 142-187 fits between the -85 and -9 ranges so.... further investigation required I think. 

Henrique Honorato. 39/64 47/57 39/88 35/63 51/62 48/74 37/108 59/74 39/80 46/84 His PA ranges from 57-108 which again doesn't fit into any single range and actually has to be spread over 4 different ranges. Like I said though, my understanding in this area is pretty weak so..... further investigation required again. 

-10 170-200
-95 160-190
-9 150-180
-85140-170
-8 130-160
-75 120-150
-7 110-140
-65 100-130
-6 90-120
-55 80-110
-5 70-100
-45 60-90
-4 50-80
-35 40-70
-3 30-60
Below that I don't understand at all how it works. 


 

Edited June 2, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[Britrock]

Fair play, you're right that I may have remembered that from a previous version and it's all changed since then. I appreciate someone doing the research on this though, enjoying the work so far 

[Jimbokav1971]

8 hours ago, Britrock said:

Fair play, you're right that I may have remembered that from a previous version and it's all changed since then. I appreciate someone doing the research on this though, enjoying the work so far 

No problem at all. 

I think we are all guilty of working hard to understand how something works and then just assuming that it will stay the same. I know I certainly am. 

[Jimbokav1971]

I have added the following points to post #6. 

14. What single thing has the biggest impact on the quality of a Youth Intake? (This is immediately subjective because it depends if you are looking at CA or PA). Most of us look at CA in terms of the stars, but if you can't develop the player from his low CA starting point to his potential PA then the high PA doesn't really mean anything. 
15. Why do low rep clubs often seem to get players from Secondary Nations in their Intakes with high PA relative to the rest of the intake? 
16. It is commonly believed that the 1st intake of each save, (for all clubs), is boosted for some reason. Is there any truth to this or is it just an old FM players tale? 

[Parmie]

I think it would help to see the total PA & CA of the intakes as well as the basic number of players. This should help to show something like lowering the youth facilities reducing the PA of individual players but if your Youth Recruitment is high, you're still getting the same volume of players coming through, and vice versa, do we care about youth recruitment if we're still getting high individual PA players coming through with regularity.

[Jimbokav1971]

1 minute ago, Parmie said:

I think it would help to see the total PA & CA of the intakes as well as the basic number of players. This should help to show something like lowering the youth facilities reducing the PA of individual players but if your Youth Recruitment is high, you're still getting the same volume of players coming through, and vice versa, do we care about youth recruitment if we're still getting high individual PA players coming through with regularity.

I think that's a really good point. 

What makes a good intake? Is it 1 potential superstar of 4-5 players who will impact the 1st Team. 

Total CA/PA for the whole intake is definitely something I will add. 

[Mandy42]

like the thread. 

Though sorry it evolved from you getting annoyed at someone else's lack of candour online.

From your first post regarding intake depth. IE the screenshot of the pitch with the positions and the number of players in each. It says those numbers are organised due to players preferred role. Is it possible for a player to have more than one preferred role? Guess the question is does each player account for a single number on the graphic. Or can the same player count for more than one?

Then my main question around youth intakes and player development has always been the same. Is it better to loan players out for match experience? Or keep them and play them in your age defined teams? Is the loan system pushed by the in game engine because its replicating the real world? Or is that what is best for the player? 

Because I always struggle with the thought process that surely sending my star of the future to play regularly for a club with worse staff / training facilities and teammates is really going to improve them as a player? 

More than them staying in my U23 team where they use training facilities and staff I have control over the quality of. Plus medical staff to try and ensure my hot prospects are as protected from injury as possible.

Plus after a little research the only player of Man Utds "class of 92" to go out on loan was Beckham in 1995, where he played all of five games for Preston North End. Which I doubt had that much of an impact on his career. Giggs, Scholes, Butt and both Neville's never did.

So now I'm even more conflicted

 

[Jimbokav1971]

14 minutes ago, Mandy42 said:

like the thread. 

Though sorry it evolved from you getting annoyed at someone else's lack of candour online.

From your first post regarding intake depth. IE the screenshot of the pitch with the positions and the number of players in each. It says those numbers are organised due to players preferred role. Is it possible for a player to have more than one preferred role? Guess the question is does each player account for a single number on the graphic. Or can the same player count for more than one?

Then my main question around youth intakes and player development has always been the same. Is it better to loan players out for match experience? Or keep them and play them in your age defined teams? Is the loan system pushed by the in game engine because its replicating the real world? Or is that what is best for the player? 

Because I always struggle with the thought process that surely sending my star of the future to play regularly for a club with worse staff / training facilities and teammates is really going to improve them as a player? 

More than them staying in my U23 team where they use training facilities and staff I have control over the quality of. Plus medical staff to try and ensure my hot prospects are as protected from injury as possible.

Plus after a little research the only player of Man Utds "class of 92" to go out on loan was Beckham in 1995, where he played all of five games for Preston North End. Which I doubt had that much of an impact on his career. Giggs, Scholes, Butt and both Neville's never did.

So now I'm even more conflicted

Thanks. There are things that I can answer now, (and prove), and there are things that I can answer now and I'm unable to prove and there are things that will take more research before a definitive conclusion can be reached but I think you ask some really good questions even if some of them move on a little from the Youth Intake preview/Youth Intake to actual player development, (but I think that's only natural because it's all 1 subject really). 

Let me see what how I can respond now.....

[Jimbokav1971]

43 minutes ago, Mandy42 said:

From your first post regarding intake depth. IE the screenshot of the pitch with the positions and the number of players in each. It says those numbers are organised due to players preferred role. Is it possible for a player to have more than one preferred role? Guess the question is does each player account for a single number on the graphic. Or can the same player count for more than one?

If you look at post 2, you will see that there are 10 different Youth Intake previews. Each of them has 16 players on the Intake distribution screen. 

Preview 1. 

Preview 2. 

Preview 3. 

Preview 4. 

Preview 5. 

Preview 6. 

Preview 7. 

Preview 8. 

Preview 9. 

Preview 10. 

We know that there are 16 players in a standard intake although this can be increased by the poaching of players from other clubs, (so if you poached 1 player from another Youth Team/Academy then you would get an intake of 17 players, but at this stage I can't remember/confirm what happens if you are the club who has a player poached. (I'm pretty sure that you still get 16 players through the Intake, because the player would have been replaced), but at the same time this is something that I "think" rather than something I "know and can prove". Hopefully I will be able to do so at some point in the future. 

We know that each player only appears once on the Intake Distribution graphic, (as evidenced above), but we don't know what makes them get allocated into these specific positions. For that you have to look at where this info comes from..

To start off with you have to check which staff member has been allocated responsibility in this area, (and change it if needed). Ricardo Luiz Gomes Mendes is the HoYD at this club and he has been tasked with this duty. So the info here comes from his ability to judge players, (both in terms of CA and PA).

Then it gets more complicated. This seems simple doesn't it. "Players by preferred positions" means the position that the player prefers to play in doesn't it? 

Or does it mean the position that the HoYD would prefer to play the player in? 

Or does it mean the position that the HoYD, (because he's compiling the report remember), thinks that the player wants to play in. 

The truth is that it's as clear as mud. 

What we do know is that it will be the position, or 1 of the positions in which the player where the player has "Natural" ability. This "preferred" position will ALWAYS 100% of the time be 1 of the Natural Ability positions. I know this but am unable to provide with you the evidence right now but will later. Where the player has multiple positions where he has natural ability, then what decides which 1 is used as the "preferred role" is unknown, but as the report is coming from the HoYD, (in this case), rather than from the player, I think it's reasonable to assume that it's the HoYD's "opinion" on what the players preferred role should be. This is what I "think" rather than what I "know" though. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[Jimbokav1971]

43 minutes ago, Mandy42 said:

Then my main question around youth intakes and player development has always been the same. Is it better to loan players out for match experience? Or keep them and play them in your age defined teams? Is the loan system pushed by the in game engine because its replicating the real world? Or is that what is best for the player? 

Because I always struggle with the thought process that surely sending my star of the future to play regularly for a club with worse staff / training facilities and teammates is really going to improve them as a player? 

More than them staying in my U23 team where they use training facilities and staff I have control over the quality of. Plus medical staff to try and ensure my hot prospects are as protected from injury as possible.

Plus after a little research the only player of Man Utds "class of 92" to go out on loan was Beckham in 1995, where he played all of five games for Preston North End. Which I doubt had that much of an impact on his career. Giggs, Scholes, Butt and both Neville's never did.

So now I'm even more conflicted

The truth here is that there isn't a 1 size fits all answer, quite simply because there is not only 1 thing that influences player development. 

Let's list some of the things that we know influence player development. 

Game time. 
The level at which the playing time is performed.
The performance level achieved when playing. 
The facilities at the club. 
The staff at the club. 
Training performances, (driven my multiple things). 

That's by no means an exhaustive list, but it gives us a starting point. Let's take Beckham as an example because you mentioned him. 

He left Man Utd with their great facilities and coaches and went to play for Preston in the 3rd Division, (would now be League 2). In comparison to Man Utd they have rubbish facilities and rubbish staff, but he hasn't swapped playing for Man Utd in the Premier League for playing for Preston in League 2, he's swapped playing for the U19's in the U19's for playing competitive League 2 football against men, so the jump in standard would have been significant.

Comparing Becks to the others in his group, what I would say is that although almost everyone knows that Becks went on loan to Preston, not many people know that he didn't stay there very long, (just a few games over a month or so I think), so if you are thinking that he went and played a whole season there then that's certainly not the case at all. It was very much a short-term thing. 

This group were so good that they were all asked to train with the senior squad early on and all impressed. The level in that Youth Team at the time was ridiculous, (when you think that the likes of Keith Gillespie, Robbie Savage, Chris Casper, Ben Thornley John O'Kane, Kevin Pilkington, Simon Davies, (no, not that one), and a few others that I can't remember), all went on to have decent Pro careers it's absolutely ridiculous. I'm not saying that the whole squad became Pro footballers, but I think we're already up to about 12 or 13 and that is absolutely ridiculous! 

My rule of thumb in the game is, if I think I can give the young player some 1st team exposure then I will keep him at the club, but if I think he can go and play competitive football, (at a decent level, and yes I think League 2 is a decent level in this case), then I would have no issues sending him out on loan. 

A high PA young player with decent CA is likely to be a decent candidate for staying at the club and playing senior football.
A high PA young player with low CA is not likely to get 1st team opportunities, (because he's not good enough right now), so he would probably benefit from going out on loan. 

The problem then is the level of facilities at the club and if the player will play and if so how often will he play and in what position/role. It's really not an exact science I'm afraid. 

[Mandy42]

1 hour ago, Jimbokav1971 said:

A high PA young player with decent CA is likely to be a decent candidate for staying at the club and playing senior football.
A high PA young player with low CA is not likely to get 1st team opportunities, (because he's not good enough right now), so he would probably benefit from going out on loan. 

The problem then is the level of facilities at the club and if the player will play and if so how often will he play and in what position/role. It's really not an exact science I'm afraid. 

That makes sense. Though to me it seems to have an air of self fulfilling prophecy about it. 

If you're lucky enough to be good enough to get a chance in our team then you get exposure to all the factors that would serve as a catalyst for advancing high potential. (Quality of opposition, quality of teammates, facilities, staff etc) If you have high potential but not good enough right this moment. Then you get the more uncertain road of a loan. Likely more game time, but lower standard of everything else. Though I guess that's basically life.

I'm showing more than my usual interest. Because my current save is a second attempt at the Alex Ferguson challenge. In which I've been blessed (from a game point of view) by Arsenal, though also cursed (as a Chelsea fan). 

I knew from this season that their squad was seriously young. But the level of potential in their youth teams is seriously astounding. 

I don't have the CA and PA numbers on, as much as I don't know how as any other reason. But I've got two players. Mika Biereth an 18 year old forward and Miguel Azeez 19 year old midfielder. Both currently at CA two stars. Biereth has guaranteed four star potential (take it that's what four yellow stars mean) with a possible fifth star in white. While Azeez is guaranteed three and a half, with a possible advancement to four and a half. The backroom staff are adamant they want Azeez to go out on loan. While they remain completely silent about Biereth.

   

[SoSolidSnake]

12 minutes ago, Mandy42 said:

That makes sense. Though to me it seems to have an air of self fulfilling prophecy about it. 

If you're lucky enough to be good enough to get a chance in our team then you get exposure to all the factors that would serve as a catalyst for advancing high potential. (Quality of opposition, quality of teammates, facilities, staff etc) If you have high potential but not good enough right this moment. Then you get the more uncertain road of a loan. Likely more game time, but lower standard of everything else. Though I guess that's basically life.

I'm showing more than my usual interest. Because my current save is a second attempt at the Alex Ferguson challenge. In which I've been blessed (from a game point of view) by Arsenal, though also cursed (as a Chelsea fan). 

I knew from this season that their squad was seriously young. But the level of potential in their youth teams is seriously astounding. 

I don't have the CA and PA numbers on, as much as I don't know how as any other reason. But I've got two players. Mika Biereth an 18 year old forward and Miguel Azeez 19 year old midfielder. Both currently at CA two stars. Biereth has guaranteed four star potential (take it that's what four yellow stars mean) with a possible fifth star in white. While Azeez is guaranteed three and a half, with a possible advancement to four and a half. The backroom staff are adamant they want Azeez to go out on loan. While they remain completely silent about Biereth.

   

Now obviously this is what I "think" (or more accurately, what I've heard) rather than provable fact, but from what I understand, the development priorities are:

<18 - training is more important for development, so if you have better facilities it's better to keep them in youth squad for their development (assuming not good enough to play, at least as sub for first team) 

18+ - game time is more important, so if you aren't playing them in first team games at least 15 minutes a game, better to send them on loan to a level where they will get game time. 

 

There may have already been experiments to test this, although I'm not sure exactly how you might do so.

[Jimbokav1971]

1 hour ago, Mandy42 said:

That makes sense. Though to me it seems to have an air of self fulfilling prophecy about it. 

If you're lucky enough to be good enough to get a chance in our team then you get exposure to all the factors that would serve as a catalyst for advancing high potential. (Quality of opposition, quality of teammates, facilities, staff etc) If you have high potential but not good enough right this moment. Then you get the more uncertain road of a loan. Likely more game time, but lower standard of everything else. Though I guess that's basically life.

I'm showing more than my usual interest. Because my current save is a second attempt at the Alex Ferguson challenge. In which I've been blessed (from a game point of view) by Arsenal, though also cursed (as a Chelsea fan). 

I knew from this season that their squad was seriously young. But the level of potential in their youth teams is seriously astounding. 

I don't have the CA and PA numbers on, as much as I don't know how as any other reason. But I've got two players. Mika Biereth an 18 year old forward and Miguel Azeez 19 year old midfielder. Both currently at CA two stars. Biereth has guaranteed four star potential (take it that's what four yellow stars mean) with a possible fifth star in white. While Azeez is guaranteed three and a half, with a possible advancement to four and a half. The backroom staff are adamant they want Azeez to go out on loan. While they remain completely silent about Biereth.

Looking at your situation, (and assuming these are real players I don't know either), I would ignore the staff advice and think for yourself. 

1. Look at each player and decide if you are going to play them in the 1st Team this season. 
   
2. Then look at his Coach Report and see what level your staff think he should be playing at. There is a balance to be had between playing time and level, (as I mentioned with my young players playing for the B Team while not ready), so ideally you should do that if you want to prioritise development, but where you are loaning a player out, which AI manager is going to play your young player at a level above which he is currently playing at? Not many right? So what you definitely don't want to do is have him play at a lower level than he is capable of. If it says he is a Championship standard player, then sending him to League 1 might see him score goals play well, but it's not going to optimise his development. 
3. The best thing about a young player staying at the club during his early years is that you can focus his training. You can detail the additional training that you want him to work on, and I personally believe that PPM's are really influential in the game. I like my central midfield playmakers to have 4 PPM and it takes time for them to develop these. Think what you want to the player to look like at 25, (including PPMs), and spend the early years moulding him. 
4. At 18 Biereth might still require training guidance in terms of PPM & additional training, but at 19 Azeez might be that little bit ahead of him and be ready for 1st Team football. (I appreciate that they could be the same year group). If this was me I would look at my squad and decide who was going o be there next season and where these young players would fit in within that group. Then I would think 2 seasons ahead and ask whether you want them to be ready by then. Who's place are they going to take and how do they get there? The question I would ask myself, (because I generally care more about the long-term plan than the here and now), is can I cheat and accelerate the development of these players by flogging 1 of the fringe players in the senior squad to allow me to promote these youngsters in their place? That way I get the cash for a 1st Team player, I get 1st Team wages off the books AND I accelerate the development of 2 players who I really like the look of. 

The truth is that you need to think what you want out of them and when you want it by, and then sort of reverse engineer it backwards so that you give them the development that will get them there. 

The last thing I would say though is that the CA/PA stars lie. They just lie and lie and lie some more. I know this but at the same time every single time I select a match squad I filter by either CA stars or PA stars, (occasionally both), DESPITE THE FACT THAT I KNOW THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AND  IN SOME CASES ENORMOUSLY SO. 

My 1st choice striker in Portugal is a bloke called (32g) Ramos (POR). He's 33 now and I know the end is coming for him, but he still out-performs the younger strikers despite the fact that I've got 5 younger strikers ranked above him by CA stars, (and in fact 4 of them are ranked above him by actual CA numbers). It doesn't matter what the numbers are. He puts the ball in the net more than any of them. Much more than any of them! So don't worry so much about actual CA and PA, (never mind about PCA and PPA). Just go with your gut, because CA and PA lie! 

 

I'm not one usually to link to my own threads, but in this instance I don't know of anyone playing the same way that I am in this save. 

I'm managing in Portugal and playing Youth Only and now have a B Team playing in the 2nd tier in Portugal. Obviously competing with the likes of Porto, Benfica & Sporting is tough when you are playing Youth Only, so I have to work hard to develop more players than normal. In addition to that, I have decided NOT to game the personality game where you put lots of effort into mentoring players with poor personalities into better personalities. (Basically it's been done to death by people better at it than me and the other thing is I'm just too lazy). I'm playing Youth Only and messing about with my GK upfield and not mentoring players in order to make the game more of a challenge. 

We've only recently been given a B Team, (we're in 2050 now and I still haven't won the Liga Bwin), and for a while I was just keen to batter the opposition and field the strongest side I could in the B Team but now I have a different strategy. 

Let's just ignore the 1st Team squad because they won't play for the B Team anyway, but after them we have the players who are good enough to play for a Liga Bwin side but who are not good enough to get in our 1st Team so they go out on loan. Then there are the players who are good enough to play in the Liga Portugal 2 SABSEG, so I send them out on loan to another Liga 2 side. Then we have the players with high PA, (I'm playing this save and looking at the PA so I know the difference between PA and PPA), who aren't quite ready for Liga 2. These are the players I want to build a squad with. We often lose many of the 1st half of the season games, and then come strong in the 2nd half as the players have half a season playing at this level under their belts and are improving rapidly. We've won the title in 3 of the last 5 seasons, (finishing 2nd and 6 the other 2 seasons), and sit 5th with 9 games remaining this season. I can't begin to tell you how beneficial I have found the B Team. Enormously!!!! The thing is though, I still have to use it correctly, (and I wasn't to start off with and I don't think a lot of people do). 

I've actually found it really challenging trying to manage the different squads in this save. 

1st Team. 
B Team
U23's
U19's

Then we have our affiliates, (we have 7), 2 of which are in playable leagues. 

Deciding who goes in what squad and making sure that there aren't too many players in their position in that squad and that they aren't either too good or not good enough for that squad is tough when you have so many players. (102 players contracted at the moment). 

There are absolutely players I failed to develop properly, (especially in the early seasons of the save), and even now there are players that I fail with. There was a high profile example of a really good Italian GK who had the dreaded (L.Det) (Unamb) mix and it just didn't work with him. Don't get me wrong, he turned out ok, but he was well short of his PA in the end, (CA 123 PA 158 right now). That's a flippin enormous failure in my book. 

I think you might really get something out of having a little look at my thread and looking at the comparisons between the PPA ratings (the stars), and the actual PA, (the number). Even though you know they are not the same, you might be surprised by quite how different they can be. 

Something that I think a lot of us fall foul of, (especially those of us who play Youth Only saves), is that we start developing a player and we invest maybe 1 or 2 years into him and then someone comes out of the intake 2 years younger than him who has better PA, so we then concentrate on the younger guy and the 1st bloke sort of falls by the wayside. I take a leaf out of Southampton's book in that they don't just try to develop 1 player, (or even 1 player in each position), they have an absolute conveyor belt of talent that means as soon as 1 player is sold the next 1 just steps in and it's business as usual except for the big pile of cash they've been given. 

It's hard, but try and develop every player to the best of your ability, (or just cull them). I have a little trick that I use and it involves putting a "." at the end of a players name if I have decided they don't have a future at the club as a 1st Team player. They might be kept around to flesh out the U19's or the U23's, but every time I look at them I know they're just a filler and I don't care about their development. Everyone who doesn't have a "." after their name is a potential star and I have to put the work in with them. 

There will of course be players who jump the queue though. I currently have a 17 year old right back who has a PA of 155 and as well as 30(1) appearances for the B Team, he has already played 16(1) appearances for the 1st Team. By playing him "up" at a level before he's actually ready, I have advanced his development. Yes of course there is a balance to be had here and if you play a player too much too young, then the chances are he will pay a price at the back end of his career. 

I haven't just concentrated on this right back to the detriment of the other right backs who came through intakes before him though. The chances are we will lose him, (by about age 26/27 at the latest I think), and I need to have other options because I can't just go out and buy someone to replace him. Yes I might get another good right back in an intake after him, but there is no guarantee so I have to plan accordingly. As a result I have 2x 18 year old DR's 1x 21 year old DR, 1x 22 year old DR and a 23 year old DR. Once I have developed them I will either loan them out or sell them to generate income, but the big thing is I have to develop them 1st so that when and if I do need to go and buy someone, I will know that I have these 5 right backs that I have developed to a level that they can all come in and do a job for us. 

Is it hard work? Yeah, it bloomin is, but it's just the nature of the save and whether it's any more or any less hard work than looking through pages and pages of scout reports I'm not completely sure. It's just different.  

[Jimbokav1971]

2 hours ago, SoSolidSnake said:

Now obviously this is what I "think" (or more accurately, what I've heard) rather than provable fact, but from what I understand, the development priorities are:

<18 - training is more important for development, so if you have better facilities it's better to keep them in youth squad for their development (assuming not good enough to play, at least as sub for first team) 

18+ - game time is more important, so if you aren't playing them in first team games at least 15 minutes a game, better to send them on loan to a level where they will get game time. 

There may have already been experiments to test this, although I'm not sure exactly how you might do so.

I "think" it's too simplistic to say that there is a cut-off like that, but without running an experiment it's hard to quantify, and I would expect the results of any experiment in this area to be open to significant amounts of interpretation, (which is not really the idea). 

Rather than using the words "more important", I think there is more control that you can exert over the development of a younger player, (such as PPM's and additional focus), but if a player is ready for Senior football at 17, (and that involves a loan elsewhere), then I think there certainly isn't a hard and fast rule to say that he will develop better playing for the U19's at home rather than the 1st Team at a lower level. 

I would love to do even a very basic/limited experiment in this area so I will add it to the list. 

[Edit]

I have added the following to the list in page #6. 

17. In terms of player development is there an experiment that we could run that would compare development of players who stayed in the U19's, players who were given a couple/few outings in the 1st Team, and the same player going out on loan at a lower level? @Mandy42

Edited June 5, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[Parmie]

Another well known youtuber pushed out a development video a couple of weeks back, where they've done multiple simulations to measure development U18s training and over 18s matches. There's no statistical information because it's a youtube video and I guess that would be boring, so it's presented as some findings.

He does say U23 games count so recommends making sure it's a balanced and filled out squad to help them win and obtain good match performances. That probably gives the best of both worlds if you have good training facilities to help them too.

[fc.cadoni]

Nice work here @Jimbokav1971!

Really like it so far what I have read.

In terms of your question (17.) you can check out this one about comparing development.

[Jimbokav1971]

40 minutes ago, Parmie said:

Another well known youtuber pushed out a development video a couple of weeks back, where they've done multiple simulations to measure development U18s training and over 18s matches. There's no statistical information because it's a youtube video and I guess that would be boring, so it's presented as some findings.

He does say U23 games count so recommends making sure it's a balanced and filled out squad to help them win and obtain good match performances. That probably gives the best of both worlds if you have good training facilities to help them too.

I don't mind Youtubers telling us what they think, (and even getting things wrong occasionally), but I do mind them peddling blatant lies. In the instance you describe it's actually quite an awkward experiment to run, (but I'm going to add it to the list anyway because I think it's a decent question that needs answering). 

If I was to give my opinion it would be that U23 experience should be greater than U19 experience, (but not by loads), and it's the reason many U23's go out on loan. If you aren't playing competitive football by the time you are 23 you should be asking yourself if you are at the right club (imo). 

Filling out the squads is a no brainer to me. I would be peeved if that didn't make a difference. 

I have added this to the list on page #6. 

18. What is the difference in terms of development, between a player spending a season in the U19's and the same player spending a season in the U23's? 

[Jimbokav1971]

9 minutes ago, fc.cadoni said:

Nice work here @Jimbokav1971!

Really like it so far what I have read.

In terms of your question (17.) you can check out this one about comparing development.

Haven't looked at any of his videos properly yet, but clicked briefly on one and absolutely loved what I saw. Really like the look of that. 

You linked me to an account rather than 1 particular video though, so if there is 1 video in question then feel free to link again. From what I have seen I don't have any issue with his stuff being posted in here. Whether he's right or wrong doesn't matter. He's going about it completely the right way. 

[fc.cadoni]

10 minutes ago, Jimbokav1971 said:

Haven't looked at any of his videos properly yet, but clicked briefly on one and absolutely loved what I saw. Really like the look of that. 

You linked me to an account rather than 1 particular video though, so if there is 1 video in question then feel free to link again. From what I have seen I don't have any issue with his stuff being posted in here. Whether he's right or wrong doesn't matter. He's going about it completely the right way. 

I would say that this one is more likely to answer about your question, about match experience & training. It covers from 15 to 30 years old

[Jimbokav1971]

16 minutes ago, fc.cadoni said:

I would say that this one is more likely to answer about your question, about match experience & training. It covers from 15 to 30 years old

I will have a look at that at some point. Thanks. 

Do you mind if I ask if that's your channel @fc.cadonior just someone you like watching? 

[Jimbokav1971]

@fc.cadonilinked me to the above Youtube account and I've only had a look at 1 video but I've been really impressed actually. The video I looked at concerned the impact of (Pro), (Amb), (Det) and Morale on player growth with is pretty relevant to this thread and I really liked it. It's only 14 mins long and he deals with 4 slightly different topics and even came up with a conclusion that surprised him, so rather than ignoring it or just blindly accepting it, (he was using quite a small sample size), he actually created a test to work out if the experiment was correct or if his initial assumption had been correct all along. He was absolutely being "Driven by the evidence". 

It's well worth a look. The chances are that you will already know how the (Pro), (Amb) & (Det) tests turn out, but the Morale thing is a little different so might be worth checking out. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[fc.cadoni]

12 hours ago, Jimbokav1971 said:

I will have a look at that at some point. Thanks. 

Do you mind if I ask if that's your channel @fc.cadonior just someone you like watching? 

Hi Jim,

It's not my channel, but something which I like to watch. :-)

[OlivierL]

This is a great topic !  Maybe you could add something about foreign intakes . You know i'm (or was) playing with Africanos Bragança with only Cape Verde intakes. I found a lot of information before i started in a few youth intake topics . Most of the information was correct but not everything(for example that every wonderkid would go for Portugal and not Cape verde, while i produced three wonderkids and they all became Cape Verde internationals. i did some analysis myself in my topic but nothing compared to what you are doing. Will be reading this with great interest.

[Jimbokav1971]

5 minutes ago, OlivierL said:

This is a great topic !  Maybe you could add something about foreign intakes . You know i'm (or was) playing with Africanos Bragança with only Cape Verde intakes. I found a lot of information before i started in a few youth intake topics . Most of the information was correct but not everything(for example that every wonderkid would go for Portugal and not Cape verde, while i produced three wonderkids and they all became Cape Verde internationals. i did some analysis myself in my topic but nothing compared to what you are doing. Will be reading this with great interest.

I've got something in there already that touched on this. 

15. Why do low rep clubs often seem to get players from Secondary Nations in their Intakes with high PA relative to the rest of the intake? 

You're correct though. Secondary Nation players in other circumstances is something that could be looked at though, especially the relation with staff and affiliates. 

19. What influences the Nationality & Secondary Nationality of players? 

[Jimbokav1971]

Im upping this because I barely scratched the surface on FM22, (was too into my save), but already in FM23 I have questions that need answering.

The 1st thing I have to do is take over a club and I am using my Ceuta save from 1st April 2029, retiring as Manager, adding a new manager and taking over Melila in  the Spanish 4th Tier. 
The 1st thing to do will work out when the intake it, (it's towards the end of April), create a save before the date of the intake and go from there. 

I will then post the info on 10 different Intakes all run with how the facilities are in the game as is, and then I will change things using the in game editor, go back and run the intake again, (10 more times) and see what gets thrown up. Just like last season, 10 intakes for each simulation is tiny, but it's better than 1 intake and the truth is that I just can't be bothered to do more. If it doesn't give us an exact picture, it should at least give us an indication.

The most pressing questions this year concern the impact of Facilities on Intakes and this will be my 1st experiment after I post the base results against which others will be judged. . 

Edited November 18, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[Thebaker]

didn't actually see this thread at the time, i think i have mentioned at times on your career thread my ideas on the youth intake.

But good to see an experiment on it, does the size of town/city and location (ie port) have an effect on FGN nationalties and 2nd nationalities. It might be hard-coded in with places that have a high number of FGN-born residents.

I am sure that certain cities will have certain nationalities come through.

[Jimbokav1971]

Before I get into the Control Group though, I have some news.

We determined at the very start of the thread, that in FM22, Nationalities were static from the point of the Youth Intake Preview and would never change. The very 1st intake I ran had 15 players from Spain and the top player, (by PA), was a small South American Nationality, (but I can't remember which and I didn't take a picture because why would I?) We have already clarified that Nationalities are static haven't we? Yes, I thought we had, but that was for FM22 and what did I say at the very start of the thread? We're all guilty of assuming that how things worked in previous issues of the game are how they will work now. Well with regards to Nationalities I'm afraid that's not the case because it's changed and is no longer set at the Youth Intake Preview. 

Here is a look at Intake 2 from the Control Group. 

Here is a look at Intake 3 from the Control Group. 

Here is a look at intake 4 from the Control Group. 

Nothing is static. Player names, Nationality, Date of Birth, Position. Absolutely nothing is static. 

[Jimbokav1971]

This is the very 1st group of 10 intakes that will give us something to compare future intakes to. 

I will also document what the facilities are for this intake and also what the HoYD is like at this time. 

We don't have a HoYD, but this is the bloke in charge of the intake. 

We have 16 players in the intake (down the left hand side). 
We have a CA and a PA score for each player across 10 different intakes. 
We have total CA and PA for each intake at the bottom, (and average CA and PA too). 
We have Total CA and Total PA for each player 3 and 4 from the right.
We have Average CA and Average PA for each player on the far right. 

Edited November 17, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[Jimbokav1971]

Rather than maxing out the facilities immediately and showing you all the good players that can be produced, instead I have opted to reduce all the Facilities to Level 1 for the 1st experiment and see what sort of players will be produced with minimal "basic" facilities. Nothing else have changed. 

Control Group Average CA. 39.74
Minimal Facilities Average CA. 26.24

Control Group Average PA. 73.09
Minimal Facilities Average PA. 33.01

[Jimbokav1971]

2 hours ago, Thebaker said:

didn't actually see this thread at the time, i think i have mentioned at times on your career thread my ideas on the youth intake.

But good to see an experiment on it, does the size of town/city and location (ie port) have an effect on FGN nationalties and 2nd nationalities. It might be hard-coded in with places that have a high number of FGN-born residents.

I am sure that certain cities will have certain nationalities come through.

I'm not sure that Geographic location will be used like this, but then again it seems pretty reasonable. 

If you think about France for example, when you think about borders, a Southern based French location should generate more Spanish & Italian Nationalities & 2nd Nationalities, with perhaps more Belgian, Dutch & German being seen further North. 

As the club we're experimenting with in Spain is actually Melilla, (who are based on the African mainland), I would expect to see more Africans and certainly more Moroccans, but whether that's incorporated into the game I don't know. I know there is a latitude and longitude in the game but I don't think it is used in this way. I "think" the only location that is taken into account is the "Region" the club is in, (in this case Western Europe). 

I certainly plan on looking at Nationalities at some point, (but was thinking more along the lines of staff Nationalities & Club Affiliations. 

[Jimbokav1971]

The 1st thing I'm going to up in the Editor is Training Facilities. I have maxed them out completely and given them State of the Art Training Facilities, (and left the others all at 1). 

This one will be particularly interesting for me. In the dim and distant past, the roles of facilities were quite specialised. Training Facilities allowed players at the club to improve, Youth Facilities allowed the Youth players, (not yet through the intake), to improve, Junior Coaching largely impacted on Newgen CA and Youth Recruitment largely impacted on Newgen PA. This was how it had been explained and this is how we understood it to work. Then SI told us that things had changed and that all the facilities had an equal impact on the production of Newgens and things were no longer as specialised as they had been previously. I was always personally a bit skeptical about this, but if SI make the game then surely they are going to know more than some old bloke who can't even be bothered to run an experiment to prove if what he things is true, is actually true? (Except for penalty taking. We 100% know they are wrong/lying about penalty taking). 

So I will admit to being particularly curious as to what the results would show here. After all, a L20 Training Facility is a flippin enormous investment. If SI are telling us that it will significantly impact Newgen.... generation, then great!......

In terms of CA, the L20 Training Facilities performed only slightly better than the min facilities test. (26.26 compared to 26.24). When you consider that the overall level of the Facilities was 23 compared to 4, this doesn't see like a good investment for this purpose, (but then again, you wouldn't think it would be). 

In terms of PA, The L20 Training Facilities performed even more poorly than a pessimist on a downer might have expected. Despite producing a 90 PA player, (in intake 6), it trailed the Min. Facilities results 33.01 to 31.74. This is quite surprising and I would suggest that this might because of the small sample size, but if we ran it in bigger numbers then (I would expect)... (PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS MY OPINION AN GOES CONTRARY TO THE EVIDENCE THAT WE HAVE JUST LOOKED AT), Max Training would surely be slightly higher, (but that's not what the data based on 10 intakes vs 10 intakes is telling us). Just remember that this is a tiny tiny tiny sample size. I could do 100 or 1,000 but I just don't have the ability/knowledge to automate the reports that this would require. (I must admit that I had to work out how to sum every 2nd column just for this thread, so every day's a school day as they say). 

[the_hdk]

great work jim  really interesting to read

[Jimbokav1971]

5 minutes ago, the_hdk said:

great work jim  really interesting to read

Thanks very much @the_hdk Glad you're enjoying it. 

This is going to be quite a gradual process though, (so I don't get sick of it and bin it off). I plan on just doing 1 single experiment at a time so it shouldn't be too onerous. At the moment I'm just sticking a few through just to get it started. 

[Jimbokav1971]

Before I get into the next experiment, I had a conversation with a few people recently with regards to the different levels within the facilities. There was a suggestion that all the facilities have 10 levels and another suggestion that some had 10 levels and some had 8 levels. Please see the following diagram which explains things accurately. 

Each Facility has 20 levels. 

Training Facilities has 20 levels, but 10 different named sections, (each containing multiple levels). 
Youth Facilities has 20 levels, but 10 different named sections, (each containing multiple levels). 
Junior Coaching has 20 levels, but 7 different named sections, (6 of which contain multiple levels). 
Youth Recruitment has 20 levels, but 8 different named sections, (each of which contain multiple levels). 

Those of you who are paying attention might notice that when it comes to Training Facilities & Youth Facilities, Adequate comes before Average, but when it comes to Junior Coaching ,the order is reversed and Average comes before Adequate. Just to confuse things further, normal order is resumed for Youth Recruitment where Adequate again comes before Average. This is simply an error that SI made when these levels were introduced, but for whatever reason they have decided not to correct the order in Junior Coaching. 

If you are on twitter then bookmarking this tweet might be of help, (at least until Elon turns the lights out). 

 

[Jimbokav1971]

 

As with the previous Training Facilities post I will leaving all the other Facilities at L1 and upgrading Training Facilities to L20. 

Next up is the Youth Facilities. This is where the Youth players train at the club BEFORE they come through the intake. This isn't the players in your Youth Team or players on Youth contracts no matter what squad they are in. This is aged group players who are at the club but who haven't yet come through the intake. (So think of them as 11, 12, 13, 14 & 15 years olds all playing aged group football). For ages I didn't know this and I think it was possibly Cleon's Ajax thread that finally shone a light on this, (and many other things for me. In my opinion the Ajax thread is the best FM related thread on these forums, (had to be specific because the OTF guys get funny), and even though it's hugely out of date now, I still urge anyone who hasn't read it to go and read it, and maybe even if you have read it, go back and read it again.

In terms of CA, this group came out the lowest so far, (lower than the minimum facilities where they were all set at 1). The PA result was a little better, coming out on top of both minimum facilities and maximum training groups. It's still a lot of investment for not much return in this area. 

[Jimbokav1971]

Something has caught my eye when posting the 1st few results and when it happened again, (but even more pronounced this time), I decided that it wasn't just my brain playing tricks on me so I would mention it and look at it. 

Once again I will say before delving into this, that the sample size of 10 intakes we're using here is tiny, but let's just go with it for a minute. 

When we're looking at the CA and PA of players, every CA and every PA must end in either a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10, (even if they are single digit numbers). You have a 1 in 10 chance of a CA or PA ending in a 0. A 10% chance. 

We're looking at 16 players, (16 numbers), we're looking at both CA and PA, (32 numbers), and we're looking at 10 different intakes in each experiment, (320 numbers), so by the laws of probability you would expect somewhere in the region of 32 CA's or PA's to end in a 1 digit, 32 CA's or PA's to end in a 2, 32 CA's or PA's to end in a 3 etc etc etc etc. That's seems perfectly normal and even if it's a little bit out, this could well be because of the tiny sample size we're using and it will surely even out of a bigger sample size and time. RIght? 

What caught my eye previously, but especially in the last results, was how many times the CA or PA ended in a 0, (so 10, 20, 30, 40 etc etc etc). We've already calculated that based on the laws of probability, we should expect to see something like 32 occurrences of this in each section so how many have we got? 

82? That's a bit weird. We were expecting something close to 32 and we actually got 82, (256% bigger than we expected). 

I'm sure it's all fine though, but before we ignore it completely, I wonder what the make-up was in terms of how many were CA values that ended in a 0 digit and how many were PA values that ended in a 0 digit? (The laws of probability would suggest that it will be pretty even so something close to 41-41). 

CA values ending in a 0 digit = 67 (82%)
PA values ending in a 0 digit = 15 (18%) 

Well that's not 50/50. 

We were expecting 32 in total, (so 16 approx in each section). PA is 15 so that's pretty on the money, but it's the CA values that is significantly out. 

I haven't got any ideas why this has come up, but it's certainly unusual. The fact that the problem is limited to CA only suggests that there is some sort of modifier being added to these figures to make them like this. It's very strange. 

Edited November 18, 2022 by Jimbokav1971

[OlivierL]

I love this kind of experiments Jimbo ! 

[Jimbokav1971]

23 minutes ago, OlivierL said:

I love this kind of experiments Jimbo ! 

Cheers mate. Feel free to comment if you have any predictions on experiments you think I might don in the future or if you were surprised by anything you have seen so far. 

For example I'm sure there are absolutely LOADS of people who are unaware that Average/Adequate on Junior Coaching is the wrong way round. 

[OlivierL]

1 minute ago, Jimbokav1971 said:

Cheers mate. Feel free to comment if you have any predictions on experiments you think I might don in the future or if you were surprised by anything you have seen so far. 

For example I'm sure there are absolutely LOADS of people who are unaware that Average/Adequate on Junior Coaching is the wrong way round. 

I have to admit that i did not know that  i am thinking about doing a new Africanos Braganca style save (Cape Verde regens in Portugal) but this time again with Caley Braves (French Regens in Scotland), might post something about that (dynamic youth rating, nationalities etc).