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Player Potential Description - Is it talking about yellow or white stars?


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Ok I think it refers to the white stars (?)


Tiers in this database:

  1. Majors
  2. Chase Championship
  3. XBox United League
  4. (Amazon) Prime Divisions
  5. Netflix Championship Divisions

 

Given the following, >=4 stars can be either 1st or 2nd tier quality, I suppose because the skill difference between these levels is relatively low?:

image.png.65216876472aa6785018f33204eadd5e.png

image.png.ae0f489d9ccbe9335b8889396c1b0926.png

image.png.1aa595d9e0c74a3216267d861ff912e1.png

image.png.3713e6d6ac9b1553c5f0c96305bea06a.png

 

But then, if that's the case, then I don't know how to explain the image from the original post :confused:

 

It would be great if these descriptions were clear about which star rating they were referring to, rather than leaving it to us to work it out.

 

 

Edited by mannyhams
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Potential is normally relative to your squad and league, for example a 2.5 star potential player at Manchester United would likely be a 5 star potential player at a League 1 club.

The main difference between the gold and white stars is that the gold stars are where the coaches/scouts think the player is with some certainty. The white stars are the fudge factor, indicating that the coaches arent sure if they player could reach that level or not.

image.png.65216876472aa6785018f33204eadd5e.png

In this example the coaches think the player is pretty much at the limits of his development (be that CA/PA or because of his age so development is slow). There may still be a few points of growth in there but he is pretty much a fully developed player.

image.png.3713e6d6ac9b1553c5f0c96305bea06a.png

This guy the coaches are less sure of his celing, he is young enough that he could still develop further if there is potential there but they arent 100% hence the fudge factor. Hence why his current ability is Prime Division Northeast, but if he does have the potential spare he could "potentially" make it all the way up to Majors but its not certain.

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18 hours ago, Garrlor said:

Potential is normally relative to your squad and league, for example a 2.5 star potential player at Manchester United would likely be a 5 star potential player at a League 1 club.

The main difference between the gold and white stars is that the gold stars are where the coaches/scouts think the player is with some certainty. The white stars are the fudge factor, indicating that the coaches arent sure if they player could reach that level or not.

image.png.65216876472aa6785018f33204eadd5e.png

In this example the coaches think the player is pretty much at the limits of his development (be that CA/PA or because of his age so development is slow). There may still be a few points of growth in there but he is pretty much a fully developed player.

image.png.3713e6d6ac9b1553c5f0c96305bea06a.png

This guy the coaches are less sure of his celing, he is young enough that he could still develop further if there is potential there but they arent 100% hence the fudge factor. Hence why his current ability is Prime Division Northeast, but if he does have the potential spare he could "potentially" make it all the way up to Majors but its not certain.

Thanks for this, I did understand the difference between the yellow and white stars in the way that you've described - it's the English text that I find problematic for two reasons:

1) It seems to inconsistently refer to either the yellow (high confidence) and white (low confidence) ratings. For instance, see the following three screenshots. If the description refers to yellow star ratings, then the 1st and 3rd pictures are incompatible. If it refers to white stars, then the 2nd picture is incompatible with the 1st and 3rd.

image.png.65216876472aa6785018f33204eadd5e.png

image.png.d30e28d660d6bc5addf8956825349ae3.png

image.png.3713e6d6ac9b1553c5f0c96305bea06a.png

2) The ambiguity of these descriptions makes them difficult to trust, but there doesn't seem to be any other way to understand potential WRT the quality of play in higher leagues. I feel the white star/yellow star mechanic is enough to give the player the experience of being unsure of how far a player can progress... the English description should at least accurately interpret the two star ratings (or specify to which rating it refers).

 

Edited by mannyhams
copy paste error with the screenshots and some typos
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3 hours ago, mannyhams said:

Thanks for this, I did understand the difference between the yellow and white stars in the way that you've described - it's the English text that I find problematic for two reasons:

1) It seems to inconsistently refer to either the yellow (high confidence) and white (low confidence) ratings. For instance, see the following three screenshots. If the description refers to yellow star ratings, then the 1st and 3rd pictures are incompatible. If it refers to white stars, then the 2nd picture is incompatible with the 1st and 3rd.

image.png.65216876472aa6785018f33204eadd5e.png

image.png.d30e28d660d6bc5addf8956825349ae3.png

image.png.3713e6d6ac9b1553c5f0c96305bea06a.png

2) The ambiguity of these descriptions makes them difficult to trust, but there doesn't seem to be any other way to understand potential WRT the quality of play in higher leagues. I feel the white star/yellow star mechanic is enough to give the player the experience of being unsure of how far a player can progress... the English description should at least accurately interpret the two star ratings (or specify to which rating it refers).

 

Just to clarify, there is no incompatability with 1 and 3. In picture 1, he is is clearly at the standard required for Majors, with the potential for a little bit more growth. When compared to number 3, your coaches/scouts are informing you that he could reach 4*, which would match the actual ability of player 1, but that they aren't 100% sure that he will actually make it that far. Hence the potentially Majors standard tag, even though he is a Prime level player right now. They arent 100% sure on his actual ability level right now, which means that they cant say with confidence what level he is at. More scouting would help here.

As for image 2, the coaches/scouts are making a judgement call that even though he potentially has a high celing, he wont make it as far as Majors standard for a number of reasons (age etc). Hence the Championship designation, with a potential tag.

The English description is designed to indicate the ambiguity, if they were 100% set in stone then you may as well use FM Scout. You need to make your own judgement based on stat profile, age, current training level, match experience to date, PPA's etc etc. You may find a player that your scouts reccomend highly, but he is a right wing back with terrible physical stats, poor teamwork etc. But he has really high values for stuff that you might not want, or a lot of his current ability has been taken up by PPA's that contradict each other (Gets Forward and Stays Back for example). Rated well, but too much effort to retrain and get right. But your coaches/scouts are telling you he is Potentially Majors standard.

TLDR: The white stars dictate the text for both Current and Potential ability, as it is the theoretical maximum based on your scouts/coaches judgement.

 

As a side note, if you have a 14 year old player who starts off at 40 CA and has a 145 PA, he will appear to scouts and coaches as someone who is high potential ability regardless of his actual standard, because he has a lot of potential growth. As he ages, if his CA doesnt improve much his potential ability prediction will slowly catch up to his actual ability level until eventually they will be the same. In this example, he is 28 now and his CA is 80 as he was ruined due to injuries and lack of playing time. He will probably always be a player who has a little bit of "spare" potential that the coaches/scouts pick up on because in theory he still has a lot of points spare, which would probably gives you a player similar to example 3's text description, based on whichever league structure and level you are playing at. Does that help?

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Just to clarify, there is no incompatability with 1 and 3. In picture 1, he is is clearly at the standard required for Majors, with the potential for a little bit more growth. When compared to number 3, your coaches/scouts are informing you that he could reach 4*, which would match the actual ability of player 1, but that they aren't 100% sure that he will actually make it that far. Hence the potentially Majors standard tag, even though he is a Prime level player right now. They arent 100% sure on his actual ability level right now, which means that they cant say with confidence what level he is at. More scouting would help here.

The incompatibility is there, if you understand the English descriptions to refer to the yellow star ratings, which is how I worded it above. In this case, the 3rd picture's PA should read "Prime Division Northeast Standard player" or similar, but not Majors since that is the white star rating.

Otherwise, if you understand the English descriptions to refer to the white star ratings, then it's the 2nd picture which is inconsistent with the other two - the text should read "Majors standard player" or better.

I think you're right that the text is intended to refer to the white star ratings, but unfortunate inconsistencies like this picture (2nd one) make it an unreliable guide.

I'm all for representing the huge uncertainty involved in assessing PA/CA, but I also think the text should unambiguously refer to either the yellow or the white star rating so that it can be useful to us. If yellow stars are the high-confidence min-ability estimate, and white stars are the low-confidence theoretical max ability estimate, then that already represents the assessment uncertainly very well, IMO, without also having contradictory text.

 

 

Edited by mannyhams
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For me the second one means the coach/scout has no confidence in what he is predicting. Often on my initial scout reports they will be 2.5 star CA and max of 4 to 5 star PA (Manchester United, Top scouts). But they will predict championship level despite the apparent 4 to 5 star potential from the initial scouring, which is normally proved right after a more in depth scouting.

If its a player in your side like that, your coaches just aren't sure. He might have been developing slower than predicted, meaning they are guessing at his potential level and they are pitching it lower than his maximum possible.

I agree it can be frustrating, but if you treat them purely as rough guides its not a huge issue.

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8 hours ago, Garrlor said:

For me the second one means the coach/scout has no confidence in what he is predicting.

Yeah this is yet another way we could understand it. If this is right then there are actually more than two levels of confidence that scouts are capable of expressing to us, beyond high confidence (yellow star) and low confidence (white star). This could be indicated more clearly in the UI.

Agree with you that treating potential ratings as a very crude guide is the way to go. I just wish ambiguous communication from the scouting staff wasn't an additional problem on top of the scouts' actual uncertainty about ability. At a minimum, being clear about what each star level is intended to map to in terms of league quality would be super helpful just to understand what the scouts are trying to say, regardless of when they're confident or correct.

Edited by mannyhams
poor phrasing
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