Chance Conversion

[AxeTacular]

Hey,

I'm in the third season of my Man City save and my team is stupidly good. Mbappe, Haaland, De Bruyne, Silva etc etc. I'm playing a Tika Taka style but tweaked slightly so my fullbacks overlap and my wingers are inside forwards. Barring the odd game I am creating 30+ chances with minimum 10+ on target (normally a fair bit more) and yet almost every game I am scoring 1 or 2 goals and I find I draw a lot. Every match the opposition keeper is getting 8+ rating, I am hitting the woodwork endlessly and I am just not sure why. I have great players, with great finishing, piling on the chances.... then I draw 1-1 because I convert 1 of 40 chances and the opposition get 1 shot on target and always blinking score.

 

Any ideas on what I can tweak in tactics or training to try and address this? Finding it really, really frustrating right now.

 

Thanks!

[HUNT3R]

For tactical advice, it's best to post in the tactics forum. Include your tactic and the issues you have.

On your side - 40 shots is a LOT, fwiw, and it sounds like your going for quantity rather than quality. When I'm at a top team, I have around 20-25 shots per game.

As for the conceding of goals - putting it into context (if there is context) helps. It could be a case of them scoring very early and then they just shut up shop the entire game. They didn't shoot because they didn't need to and defended instead, with you racking up the shots against a tight low block defence. On the other hand, you could have had 40 shots and scored your 1 goal (to make it 1-0) and at the end they had to come out attacking to rescue a draw (where they were happy at 0-0 before) so the shot count could increase at the end.

[sporadicsmiles]

Does your xG graph look like a long slow increase with many, many low quality chances (as in they increase the xG by less than 0.1)? This means you are creating a lot of chances, but few of them are very good chances that should end in a goal. The GK probably gets high ratings because of the way it is marked. I assume a keeper making 25 saves in a game is getting a high rating irrespective of the xG of the shots. That is not something you should focus on.

What you should look at is the xG graph from your last games. Even post them here so we can have a look. If you are seeing lots of poor xG shots, spend the time to look what there are and how they come about. Also look at the large xG chances, see how they come about. Try to then tweek the tactic to make more of the later than the former.

[duff33]

I'm finding the chance conversion/finishing quite frustrating in this year's edition - my last game was a prime example, with Espanyol scoring from a 0.09 and a 0.03 chance to win 2-1, while my Valencia team only converted one of ten shots on target, with several at .1 or higher (I understand .2 is probably what you're aiming for in terms of a good quality chance - which we had, and was saved, but we rarely seem to get the rub of the green for low expectation shots...).

Our xG for the season so far is 25.1; actual goals scored? 16.

I've tweaked tactics (and tried different formations - to help unlock teams, especially more defensive ones), have Chance Conversion training on an almost weekly basis, but it continues to be a frustration throughout the save - outplaying teams, seeing decent chances missed, then getting dummied by a long ball or some such from a team in the bottom half of the table.

Whilst I appreciate that those sort of things happen in football sometimes, the frequency of it is very frustrating - there's only so many times you can watch someone meet a header at the back post, six-yards out, and head it back across the face of goal and out for a goal kick. It's almost more impressive that they miss the target completely...  There's nearly always some kind of late miss as well, a good chance sent wide. It feels almost obligatory at this point 

Maybe I'm just venting, but, yeah, it's really annoying and feels much harsher than in previous years, and the same patterns keep repeating no matter what tactical tweaks are made.

[DarJ]

25 minutes ago, duff33 said:

Our xG for the season so far is 25.1; actual goals scored? 16.

That is a problem. You are so far off your xG. For me since the introduction of xG, at worst I've still out scored it by 4 or 5 goals.

It's either you're being unluck and it will even out at some point or you need to look at who's taking the shots and see if you can upgrade 

[Ratamahatta]

just look my replay. 4 of 5 matches like this: posts, bars, no penalties, 10 moments + for 99% scoring of goal. But bars, posts, clears from line... Sad...

Changing of mentality does not help. Just my gays reject to score empty goals some times.

Athletic v Real Sociedad - so sad.pkm

Edited February 2, 2022 by Ratamahatta

[AxeTacular]

2 hours ago, HUNT3R said:

For tactical advice, it's best to post in the tactics forum. Include your tactic and the issues you have.

On your side - 40 shots is a LOT, fwiw, and it sounds like your going for quantity rather than quality. When I'm at a top team, I have around 20-25 shots per game.

As for the conceding of goals - putting it into context (if there is context) helps. It could be a case of them scoring very early and then they just shut up shop the entire game. They didn't shoot because they didn't need to and defended instead, with you racking up the shots against a tight low block defence. On the other hand, you could have had 40 shots and scored your 1 goal (to make it 1-0) and at the end they had to come out attacking to rescue a draw (where they were happy at 0-0 before) so the shot count could increase at the end.

Fair point about tactics forum, but I was/am unsure if it is a tactical or maybe a training issue.

 

Their goals come randomly, there isn't a pattern. My tactics are attacking so they tend to come on a counter against the run of play as it seems every team bar Liverpool and a few other teams just camp out against me.

 

I would say I'm creating "good" chances, I play tactics to work ball into the box so most my shooting is in the box, I don't discourage long shots but don't encourage them either so I'm not blazing away from 30 yards or something, I just don't seem able to convert and it is baffling.

[AxeTacular]

4 hours ago, sporadicsmiles said:

Does your xG graph look like a long slow increase with many, many low quality chances (as in they increase the xG by less than 0.1)? This means you are creating a lot of chances, but few of them are very good chances that should end in a goal. The GK probably gets high ratings because of the way it is marked. I assume a keeper making 25 saves in a game is getting a high rating irrespective of the xG of the shots. That is not something you should focus on.

What you should look at is the xG graph from your last games. Even post them here so we can have a look. If you are seeing lots of poor xG shots, spend the time to look what there are and how they come about. Also look at the large xG chances, see how they come about. Try to then tweek the tactic to make more of the later than the former.

So I had a look at my last match.

 

My opponent was defending like the Alamo so I only had 19 attempts with 7 on target. Of those it was split 10/9 with 10 being +.12 or greater added xG and the rest being under .9. All the shots, bar two, were inside the box and 4 inside the 6 yard box, their keeper saved 6 of my 7 shots on target.

 

I didn't realise I could get this level of data, its fascinating, but I'm not sure what it has told me. It looks although it is ultimately bad finishing? I'm working the ball into the box a lot so of the 12 misses 8 were blocked, so perhaps my build up is too slow and they are flooding the box meaning a lot of blocks or my forwards being forced to snap at it?

[HUNT3R]

1 hour ago, AxeTacular said:

Fair point about tactics forum, but I was/am unsure if it is a tactical or maybe a training issue.

 

Their goals come randomly, there isn't a pattern. My tactics are attacking so they tend to come on a counter against the run of play as it seems every team bar Liverpool and a few other teams just camp out against me.

 

I would say I'm creating "good" chances, I play tactics to work ball into the box so most my shooting is in the box, I don't discourage long shots but don't encourage them either so I'm not blazing away from 30 yards or something, I just don't seem able to convert and it is baffling.

40 shots is too many. If they're camping out that much, you're getting poor quality shots off, no matter what the xG says. Even blocked shots could carry decent xG, so it shouldn't be relied on as the sole metric. That said, you can look at xG vs actual goals scored and it can tell you if there's a problem or not. It doesn't tell you what exactly the problem is though, but at least you have a clue.

 

I like @sporadicsmiles's view of looking at stats. It's not something I often do. I've tried to do this more in the last year or two. One thing I keep an eye on, is Chance Conversion % in Team Detailed when looking at team stats. Here, I'm usually at around 11-13%, which is on the good side. Lower than that and you may have issues. If you're underperforming according to your xG, you also have issues. I regularly overperform on the xG front, not that I want to boast. I just want to say that it's possible.

Have a look at those metrics (including xG against and goals conceded perhaps) to see if anything stands out.

Stats tell you there's an issue. You now have to find what the issue is. Like I said, you're attempting too many shots (if 40 is accurate) and they cannot be of too much quality, imo. Go through the shots you are taking. Are they blocked? What's the type of chance? Headed chances have a lower xG compared to shots at the same spot. Were chances falling to the left foot and your player is right footed? Were shots attempted, but there are defenders right in front of the ball to block it?

[Jack722]

If you're creating good chances, then you need to improve your team talks.

If they're missing easy chances, they're clearly nervous. You need to spark belief in your forwards. 

Private chat: "you haven't scored much lately but I believe you can improve"

Pre match (forwards): "I have faith in you" / "no pressure"

Post match after draw / loss: "you were unlucky"

 

Don't waste your time trying to endlessly adjust your tactics

[duff33]

14 hours ago, HUNT3R said:

Stats tell you there's an issue. You now have to find what the issue is. Like I said, you're attempting too many shots (if 40 is accurate) and they cannot be of too much quality, imo. Go through the shots you are taking. Are they blocked? What's the type of chance? Headed chances have a lower xG compared to shots at the same spot. Were chances falling to the left foot and your player is right footed? Were shots attempted, but there are defenders right in front of the ball to block it?

So how do you counter some of these things? 'Low Crosses', I would assume, means less headed opportunities, but if shots are being blocked regularly, what tactical change combats that? 

Whilst I have a 'macro' sense of FM tactics, I often find some of these micro changes a bit difficult to fathom (perhaps because I zero in too much on the way an option is worded, rather than what it actually does in the game). 

[duff33]

I mean honestly... 

Whilst results like this happen in football, it feels like a disproportionate amount of games end up like this against 'inferior opposition'; hit woodwork three times, including twice from six-yards, missed one-on-ones. I'd laugh it off if the pattern hadn't become so familiar at this point. 

 

[fc.cadoni]

The problem is not in conversation rate; but game produce a lot xG chances. Both for human and AI manager. It’s pretty easy to have a sky rocket xG. Also a false assumption from users is that if you have a high xG it’s good and it’s gonna score. 

[duff33]

On 04/02/2022 at 16:25, fc.cadoni said:

The problem is not in conversation rate; but game produce a lot xG chances. Both for human and AI manager. It’s pretty easy to have a sky rocket xG. Also a false assumption from users is that if you have a high xG it’s good and it’s gonna score. 

Could be, but things like this do little to ease my frustration 

[HUNT3R]

It can swing the other way too.

Some do better. Some worse. I've only been in charge for 14 of the 21 matches and not sure how it was before then, but I'm used to doing better than the xG, xGA and xPts show.

As mentioned above, the Conversion Rate is also something that tells you whether you're doing well or not. Mine's lower than it normally is (I'm usually around 13%) but that may have been the 7 matches I missed and even then, I'm second with an 11% conversion rate.

[duff33]

I think what really grinds on me is the number of games that we've dominated, but then lost against the run of play; these are our last two games for example:

Done in by an 80th minute hit and hope from 30-yards, and then a team that converted two or their three shots on goal.

Again, I recognise that these kinds of results happen in football, but it feels like it's taking the Michael a bit at this point. 

I guess I am extra aggravated because those two results have left us chasing a Champions League spot, rather than being in a CL spot with a few games to go. 

We better out perform xG next season after all this 

[HUNT3R]

2 minutes ago, duff33 said:

I think what really grinds on me is the number of games that we've dominated, but then lost against the run of play; these are our last two games for example:

Done in by an 80th minute hit and hope from 30-yards, and then a team that converted two or their three shots on goal.

Again, I recognise that these kinds of results happen in football, but it feels like it's taking the Michael a bit at this point. 

I guess I am extra aggravated because those two results have left us chasing a Champions League spot, rather than being in a CL spot with a few games to go. 

We better out perform xG next season after all this 

Those screenshots don't tell us much.

The first game shows that you created, on average, poor chances. They did as well though. That's all we can take from it.

The 2nd screenshot shows that although you created better chances, on average, than the first game, you only had about a third of your shots on target. They created, on average, the same quality chances as you as well, but theirs were on target more often that yours. Not sure if they parked the bus or not.

In short, those 2 images tell us something, but there's a LOT of information and context missing. It's fine if it's just airing frustrations, but if it was me, I'd be looking into it in more detail. It's going to keep happening unless you do something about it. You can only do something about it if you can find a reason (or reasons) why it's happening.

[DarJ]

20 hours ago, duff33 said:

Could be, but things like this do little to ease my frustration .

There is something really going on there. Do you mind uploading your save? i just want to look at it to see if ai can spot something 

Edited February 10, 2022 by DarJ

[duff33]

1 hour ago, HUNT3R said:

It's fine if it's just airing frustrations, but if it was me, I'd be looking into it in more detail. It's going to keep happening unless you do something about it. You can only do something about it if you can find a reason (or reasons) why it's happening.

I am, largely, airing frustration - though figuring out the causes of it is likely beyond me  By my own admittance, I am not especially good at interpreting FM 'data' TBH.

[duff33]

On 10/02/2022 at 10:19, HUNT3R said:

I'd be looking into it in more detail. It's going to keep happening unless you do something about it. You can only do something about it if you can find a reason (or reasons) why it's happening.

Second game of season three, and I find myself in the same position once again...  So here I am, asking for any help/advice. 

Result/'stats':

Shot Map - depressingly few good quality chances here (.2 or above), despite mostly being in or around 18-yard box; three long shots hit woodwork...

This is the tactic I went with for this particular game:

Any help or advice welcome, because these are the kind of results that keep costing us - we've done well in the first two season I would say (top-4 finish in both seasons; Cup, Super Cup, and CL Semi-Final in season 2!) but I feel like these are the games that are costing us a proper run at Real at the top of La Liga - we lost eight games in season one, and nine in season two, and at least three or four in each season followed a very similar pattern to the above - apparently dominate the play, shots on goal (not all necessarily high quality), but lose by the odd goal or two 'against run of play'.

I try and do Chance Conversion training regularly, and Attacking Corner training if I can fit it in.

For clarity, this has been my 'main' tactic for the most part - I bumped the mentality up to Attacking towards the end of last season, from Positive:

I also have a third tactic to try and vary things a bit against different opposition formations:

This is basically my core starting XI for the season ahead (I'd like to think I have decent/comparable players as 'backups' for each position too, with possible exception of LB and GK); the only serious change might be Yunus Musah back on the right wing once he has recovered from a damaged cruciate ligament! He was excellent for me out there in season one, and most of season two before he got hurt.