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[FM22] Statman and Robins


Shrewnaldo
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23 hours ago, Shrewnaldo said:

There seems to be quite a bit of noise around the 'scene' just now about statistics, analytics and the perennial misuse of the term Moneyball to attract hits. Every time I see these things, I just remember the satisfaction in recruiting a player through the statistical model and that signing going on to be a big hit. Case in point, Enzo Le Fée.

Glad you're back Shrew!

Completely agree with this, too. I took a lot from how you started this thread and I definitely channelled my inner Shrew with the signing below, coming in off a pretty bang average (bar dribbles and key passes) season at a pretty bang average Excelsior side...

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Pretty strong returns there!

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20 hours ago, Sonic Youth said:

Did Enzo give you lots of those sublime passes we saw in friendlies during all of those games? Love those stats of his you posted for him too.

I think that’s one of the big adjustments to the game that’s needed. Why put a stats hub into the game but not have basic stats in there. xA and expected threat, ability to remove penalties and set pieces from stats, passing stats fleshed out. xG by itself doesn’t give enough info, and doesn’t explain results sufficiently (eg Germany’s hammering of Brazil).

Europa League final is some decent progress. I guess you don’t have the depth to maintain competing on multiple fronts. Will you be documenting your next season or two?

He absolutely did. And more than that, he was making quite the habit of playing these sorts of direct, perfectly-weighted central through balls which is how he got most of his open play assists. You can see all the traits we taught him which has turned him into this great, driving, creative 6.

 

And exactly that, re the depth. We just didn't have the quality to step in and had some unfortunate fixtures at the end of the season. But a recovery season without European football isn't the worst outcome.

 

17 hours ago, SixPointer said:

Couldn’t agree more. I have championed you for a long time for your view on statistical analysis. In particular the recruitment side of it, SI should take notice of your great work but also the desire to improve the game in this sense. I signed Ugalde on the strength of his numbers, more so from a previous season in my league and so far he’s the bargain of the century. I’ve now just signed a left back through a similar route.

i have always relied on attributes to make decisions, but now with the stats you have used it’s really brought to life my recruitment. I am in all sense more inclined to enjoy the tactical side of the game and while the data hub and analysts have certainly been better in that area there are still holes but if the recruitment model was to have similar depth like the tactical analysis screen it would add so much more immersion.

Simply put the data hub has vastly improved the game but if they can take it a step further and really add to it, it will enhance the game so much and your ideas shouldn’t go unnoticed by the makers. 

Nice to see that my humble efforts are impactful. I've been lurking a bit on the forum since putting the game on hiatus but still have a lot to catch up on.

Definitely agree that the statistics and analysis are areas that are just crying out for improvements - particularly given the IRL strides forward in this area.

4 hours ago, _Ben_ said:

Glad you're back Shrew!

Completely agree with this, too. I took a lot from how you started this thread and I definitely channelled my inner Shrew with the signing below, coming in off a pretty bang average (bar dribbles and key passes) season at a pretty bang average Excelsior side...

b092be3f04f3eb354ce649228f36794b.png

Pretty strong returns there!

>4 shots per 90 for a midfielder is massive. And creative too! I'm assuming from those key pass numbers that he's the set piece taker?

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Haven't read this yet working through it but how you sacked Tinman :( (Brian Tinnion) 

Love the idea. It's the complete opposite of how we are set up. Interested to see how Alex Scott progresses if you keep him. Back to page one to read. 

 

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December 2027

I wanted a new tactical system to introduce some change to the squad, make the game a bit more interesting. But I didn't want to completely abandon the successes of the diamond. The squad had been moulded to suit it and, whilst the new system should require a bit of recruitment to freshen up the side, I didn't want to impose a huge turnover of personnel.

Picking out what I really liked about the diamond, it was obvious that Le Fée had to stay at regista. I just love the way he's been controlling games from deep yet still able to offer a decisive, creative output. I'd been screening him with a pair of BWM(D)s - a role that I hadn't really used much in previous versions of FM but which I now really like. But goalscoring has been our main issue and keeping two ball-winners in the middle is probably unnecessary. A combination of having better defenders and teams playing less offensively against us means we should manage with just a single ball-winner in the middle.

Meanwhile, Alex Scott had developed into a really good scoring midfielder playing from the 10 slot, primarily as a AM(A). But knowing that I wanted to play with a regista, it's not really possible to also use a 10 outside of the diamond shape we were leaving behind, or a strikerless system that I wasn't keen on. Primarily because Tyrese Campbell had excelled over the last two seasons as a poacher, bagging 40 goals last campaign. The midfield runner, therefore, would shift to CM(A) alongside the ballwinner and push us towards a classic 4-3-3 shape. An inside forward on the ball-winner's side and a winger on the CM(A)'s side should provide variations in the attack without cramping each other's space.

The instructions - going with an attacking mentality tempered with some conservative TIs such as lower tempo and work into box - is simply my attempt to find the best balance in what I find to be an un-necessarily restrictive tactics engine.

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With the introduction of wide players, some shopping was in order. This suited me fine as I'd become frustrated with the lack of consistency in my attacking options - perhaps excepting Tyrese. Whilst there were no offers for Nick Batzner or Joe Gelhardt, out went Erik Shuranov and Abdulkadir Omur, along with surplus ball-winners Tom Davies, Denis Zakaria and Kristijan Jakic.

The run to the Europa League final last season was a lot of fun, but it did directly cause our slump in league form - to the extent that we failed to qualify for continental competition this year. All of which meant we now had over £100m in the transfer kitty and, because we can afford another season with a small squad, only a few positions that needed filled. The flanks were obvious positions to strengthen but I wasn't entirely sure what a "good" metric would be for either position - without previous seasons' stats of my own players to compare against, I'd simply be going with "higher is better". So my initial move was to take newgen wonderkid Pedro Cabezas on loan from Man Utd, figuring we'd play it out with borrowed players then target permanent signings against that baseline.

But then two players that I'd targeted for other roles became available at reasonable prices and I decided to take the gamble. 

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I'd liked the look of Haissem Hassan when he was at Villarreal, impressed by his goal-scoring output and dribbling capability in a good league. He was earmarked as a potential replacement for Reiss Nelson as a midfield runner before I moved to two up front and Hassan instead moved to Porto. He's again impressed in Portugal, this time a creator more than a goalscorer - behind only PSG's Mikkel Damsgaard and Chelsea's Yusuf Demir for assists/90 in the major European leagues. This combination of scoring and creativity had me sold and for £16.5m, he's my left-wing option.

On the other flank, there's Kelvin Yeboah. I'd tried to sign the Italian-Ghanaian at the end of the 2022/23 season after two impressive campaigns with Sturm Graz. Sadly, he chose Liverpool instead - a move which, all too predictably, saw him sit in the reserves then head to Stuttgart on loan. That was followed by a successful four-year spell at Gladbach where, playing on the flank, he's notched an impressive enough 1-in-3. 

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What sold me, though, was the combination of speed, movement and traits - ideally suited to the narrow inside forward that I want on the right flank.

With the key positions filled, we were left with two 'nice to have' bits of shopping - a first-choice 'keeper and a creative full-back. In goal, Andreas Linde has been consistently excellent. He is, however, 34 and unrated by my coaching staff / the game. Whilst I figured that a top-class option would be worth a £40-50m outlay, I just couldn't find anyone who betters the Swedes elite attributes for Aerial Reach, One-on-ones, Reflexes and Positioning. So I decided to park that idea, extend Linde's contract and keep scouting for an elite newgen goalie.

At full-back our first choice options have been Omar Richards and Ethan Laird,  signed for £2.4m from Ajax and £4.4m from Man Utd respectively. Laird has proven to be the more consistent attacking threat - regularly topping the dribbles/game league charts and producing over 0.6 chances per 90. Richards, though, has lagged a little behind his compatriot, typically creating about half Laird's output and, being three years older, was a more obvious candidate for replacement. So when Luke Thomas, formerly of Leicester but having moved to Man City in 2025, was transfer-listed it was a simple decision to throw £30m at a genuine upgrade.

All of which leaves our strongest XI looking something like this:

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It will require a bit of revision to the recruitment strategy and a new look at what 'good' means, particularly for the wide players and the midfield runner. My initial thoughts are that I'm essentially looking for both the inside forward and CM(A) to score at least 1 in 3, with the 9 scoring at least 1 in 2; whilst the regista, the winger and the wingbacks should be assisting, or at least creating chances, at least 1 in 3. There will be more detailed stats behind each profile but those are the headline figures that I'm looking for to improve our offensive output.

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So far, things have been going well - we've the best defence in the league so far but still lagging the big teams in terms of goalscoring. We've already made moves, largely driven by the incessant nagging of my son Shrewnaldinho, to strenghten in January with Benfica's Darwin Nunez arriving for £32.5m. We're just that tiny little bit behind the big teams and a final push to get through the glass ceiling and into the Champions League will boost our rep and allow us to pick up the final bits of quality we need to regularly compete. Hopefully.

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8 hours ago, BristolCity1992 said:

Finished. Great read thanks! 

Thanks! Really glad to hear you enjoyed it.

Sorry about Tinion though. If I remember correctly, he was the assistant at the start of the game? His attributes must just have been too poor for me to keep him on. I just had a look and he's available to bring back as a Chief Scout. Maybe I need to do this to appease the fandom...

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Liking the new shape, very balanced. The CM(a) can prove to be lethal! Also I’ve fell in love with with IF(a) a role I used to be extremely frustrated with in the past, I now see those runs in behind fullbacks or between CB,FB in the channel.

Intrigued to what metrics you chose to rate the wide men, i have really only went of there out put, assists and goals. 

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5 hours ago, SixPointer said:

Liking the new shape, very balanced. The CM(a) can prove to be lethal! Also I’ve fell in love with with IF(a) a role I used to be extremely frustrated with in the past, I now see those runs in behind fullbacks or between CB,FB in the channel.

Intrigued to what metrics you chose to rate the wide men, i have really only went of there out put, assists and goals. 

I'm thinking primarily of trying to find an inside forward who has relatively high output in a poor side. So whilst he might not be scoring 1 in 3, he's clinical when presented with a chance (low xG per goal) and/or creates good chances for himself (high xG per shot).

For the winger, I've been thinking about something similar but trying to work out how often he turns possession into a more dangerous sequence, either by making a key pass, completing a dribble or getting a shot away. If I could just get a "passes received per 90" metric to then create calculations for "dribbles per possession" or similar. Just some embryonic thoughts for now

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Posted (edited)
On 08/05/2022 at 22:01, Shrewnaldo said:

Thanks! Really glad to hear you enjoyed it.

Sorry about Tinion though. If I remember correctly, he was the assistant at the start of the game? His attributes must just have been too poor for me to keep him on. I just had a look and he's available to bring back as a Chief Scout. Maybe I need to do this to appease the fandom...

I've not actually looked at him on the game, but I'm assuming he was probably head of youth development which he is IRL alongside Loan Manager I think. He played for us in the 90's and 00's scoring one of our most famous goals against Liverpool. He had a really unsuccessful spell as manager which was sad and then came back to his new role and has done a great job for the club. He was a star when I was growing up. Some useless information for you. 

Don't worry about remploying him though I'm sure you would be forgiven for taking us to the Europa League. :)

Nunez could be a great signing he destroyed my Braga team a few times in the last FM and has obviously come to the forefront with Benfica's recent run. 

 

Edited by BristolCity1992
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17 hours ago, BristolCity1992 said:

I've not actually looked at him on the game, but I'm assuming he was probably head of youth development which he is IRL alongside Loan Manager I think. He played for us in the 90's and 00's scoring one of our most famous goals against Liverpool. He had a really unsuccessful spell as manager which was sad and then came back to his new role and has done a great job for the club. He was a star when I was growing up. Some useless information for you. 

Don't worry about remploying him though I'm sure you would be forgiven for taking us to the Europa League. :)

Nunez could be a great signing he destroyed my Braga team a few times in the last FM and has obviously come to the forefront with Benfica's recent run. 

 

Ah that'd make sense. Obviously with the focus on recruitment and the decision to abandon youth completely, I'd have got rid of the HOYD immediately.

Already a double for Nunez on debut, albeit only against Forest in the Cup but he's immediately been listed as the squad's key player, which is always nice for a new signing 

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3 hours ago, Vizzini said:

Have you thought of using an IWB on the left to cover for the CM-A or do you prefer to overload the left flank?

Funnily enough, that was exactly my first thought for replacing Richards at left back. An IWB would get me back to the 2-3-5 shape when we have the ball, but eventually I decided that it was just a different way of playing the same system as had with the diamond.

Then Thomas became available and, exactly as you say, I decided to just overload the left wing.

I am considering changing up that AML. So far the winger has worked out alright but I feel I could get more from it. Either putting Darwin there as an inverted winger or playing an AP to come inside and overload the channel / half space with the CM(A) makes sense to me. A few options to work out 

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