Moneyballing My Way To A Champions League Title in Every European Nation Part X: The FM23 Experiment

[SaintsFCFan7498]

Been using the spreadsheet since I figured out how your formulas worked. It's just so much easier to truly evaluate your squad for a tactic and find the deals.

 

Still following this series and good job avoiding relegation in the most difficult season you could have had with the format change and the run in the season after is incredible.

[shaunvamos]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We miss out on Europe, but it was a pipe dream. To finish in 8th in our second Ligue 1 season is an incredible achievement, especially with scoring more goals than PSG. All we need to do is shore up our defence and we'll see ourselves pushing for top 6.

 

 

 

Best XI

 

 

 

Pablo Rodríguez  -  Saidou Sow  -  Abdoulaye Dabo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Record Breakers

 

 

 

 

 

Award Winners

 

 

 

 

 

Progress

 

 

[shaunvamos]

12 hours ago, SaintsFCFan7498 said:

Been using the spreadsheet since I figured out how your formulas worked. It's just so much easier to truly evaluate your squad for a tactic and find the deals.

 

Still following this series and good job avoiding relegation in the most difficult season you could have had with the format change and the run in the season after is incredible.

 

Thanks! I'm glad you're using the formulas to your advantage

 

Yeah the format change was interesting, but at least it didn't affect us too much.

[shaunvamos]

2026 Preseason

 

 

 

Another busy transfer window as we further strengthen the squad for an attempt to push for the top 6.

 

 

 

Central Defenders

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another season, another new look backline. They're all youth internationals too which is encouraging.

 

 

 

Right Wing Back

 

 

 

Pordino might be a little expensive, coming from the Serie B, but he's considered promising so I think he's definitely worth it.

 

 

 

Central Midfielders

 

 

 

 

 

We liked what we saw from Oliveira, so we made moves to sign him permanently. He's joined by former Inter and Fiorentina man Gaetano Oristanio.

 

 

 

Striker

 

 

 

Another crossover player from a previous save, and I expect Dumas to be a fine complement to Rodriguez.

 

 

 

 

 

An exciting preseason, and it bodes well for the season.

 

 

 

 

 

Someone needs to tell the bookies though, because we're still predicted last.

[shaunvamos]

August 2026

 

 

 

 

 

A nightmare start, but a nightmare fixture list too. Disappointed not to get the win over Metz, but out September is due to be worse. Our first three fixtures are Lyon, PSG and Monaco. Our final fixture of September is against Strasbourg, currently top of the league. It's going to be a tough one. 

 

 

 

 

Transfers (Out)

 

 

 

After two seasons and 64 league appearances, Pastina moves on to Huesca for more than double what we paid for.

Edited March 13, 2022 by shaunvamos

[shaunvamos]

September 2026

 

 

 

 

 

This month went a lot better than I expected it to. A draw at Lyon, a close loss to PSG and two wins over Monaco and Strasbourg to knock them off top spot. There's still plenty of work to do though.

[shaunvamos]

October 2026

 

 

 

 

 

Our form has turned, and our strikers are banging in the goals. 

[shaunvamos]

November 2026

 

 

 

 

 

Two wins over newly promoted teams pushes us into the top 6.

[shaunvamos]

December 2026

 

 

 

 

 

Our top scorer (and the league's top scorer) Dumas hurt his foot and was out for a month, and we suddenly forget how to score. Coincidence? Probably not.

 

 

 

 

 

We have 5 As, but watch them all be 4.5 stars at most, and probably only one of them at that.

[shaunvamos]

January 2027

 

 

 

 

 

Out of the cup, which reduces fixture congestion, and undefeated in the league. This next month is when we'll have all the tough teams, so we just have to get through that and we'll see what happens.

[shaunvamos]

February 2027

 

 

 

 

 

The scary part of the schedule is finished, and we did okay. The win over Monaco was satisfying, and we have a shot at jumping into 4th.

[shaunvamos]

2027 Youth Intake

 

 

 

Brahim Leduc 6A  -  Jean Charlier 6B*  -  Nélson Peixoto 6C

 

 

 

As expected, the preview exaggerated reality. 3 4* players is nice, but they'll never deliver on their potential. Our facilities just aren't up to Ligue 1 standards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[shaunvamos]

March 2027

 

 

 

 

 

An okay month, and if we win our game in hand we'll be 4th.

[shaunvamos]

April 2027

 

 

 

 

 

6th place is pretty much sealed at this point which means we will more than likely have European football next season, as long as PSG beat Lille in the cup final.

[shaunvamos]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A perfect end to the season, and we finish 4th, which gets us into the Group Stage of the Europa League. We're going to have some money which will allow us to find some better players, and maybe we can challenge for top 3. PSG look to be far too ahead at this stage, but Monaco did win in 2023 so they're not ridiculously dominant just yet.

 

 

 

Best XI

 

 

 

Benjamin Blum  -  Jelani Trevisan Dumas  -  Simone Simonetti

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Record Breakers

 

 

 

 

 

Award Winners

 

 

 

 

 

Progress

 

 

[muncher316]

@shaunvamos been following this for some time and I am mightily impressed! Have you posted your Excel spreadsheet anywhere for download? If not, would you mind sending to me? Looks to give very promising results!

[shaunvamos]

2027 Preseason

 

 

 

A very quiet transfer by our standards, as only one player joins us. There are better players than ours available that want to join us, but we can't afford them at this stage. So we decided to invest in our training and youth facilities instead.

 

 

 

Centre Back

 

 

 

Cisse is a CB masquerading as a striker, which is strange seeing as he can't finish at all. But he can head, tackle and mark, with excellent physical stats to boot. At just 18 there's plenty of room to grow too.

 

 

 

 

 

A very positive preseason, with the draws coming due to rotation.

 

 

 

 

 

Finally not predicted last, but still predicted to battle relegation. I'm just hoping for a strong start, something that has been lacking the last couple of seasons.

[shaunvamos]

5 hours ago, muncher316 said:

@shaunvamos been following this for some time and I am mightily impressed! Have you posted your Excel spreadsheet anywhere for download? If not, would you mind sending to me? Looks to give very promising results!

Thank you! I have posted it on this thread, but here is the most up to date one:

 

 

 

FMCU.xlsx

[shaunvamos]

August 2027

 

 

 

 

 

A much better start than what we're used to, and we sit on the edge of the top 6.

 

 

 

Transfers (Out)

 

 

 

Our Polish lower league find has left for more than 10 times the value we bought him for. It's a sad day, even though he was only here for 65 games, but what's even sadder is that he wanted to go to Amiens, a team in Ligue 2, instead of playing in the Europa League. Strange times.

 

 

Transfers (In)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The departure of our starting DM meant that we had to look to sign a new one, and we ended up with two players, one of which is very familiar. Dupont was the best DLP we could find, but he's far better in the Mezzala position (which we taught him when he was on loan with us) and will start there. Cayarga is only slightly less capable at DLP, but his loan will fill the need while we build our transfer funds back up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is probably the group I wanted to end up in, with only Sporting Lisbon as the traditional strong team. Not taking away from Young Boys and Kobnhavn of course, but I hope we can take them easier than Sporting.

[shaunvamos]

September 2027

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Our good form in the league continues, highlighted by the win at home over Marseille, and the start in the Europa League could not have gone better, dismantling Sporting 6-1! The draw against Kobenhavn is less than ideal, but it's still a point.

[shaunvamos]

October 2027

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A perfect month apart from the loss to Monaco where we had to rest players due to the quick turnaround, and Pablo Rodriguez has gone on an absolute tear in front of goal. He's scored 14 goals in 15 games with 5 assists already!

[shaunvamos]

November 2027

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We're up to 3rd, but there's a bit of distance to the top two. The reserve side will also get a trip to Portugal as we've sealed first place in the group and therefore reaching the last 16 of the Europa League.

[shaunvamos]

December 2027

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The loss against Lyon was expected, but we're sitting safely in 4th as we head into the second half of the season. Two academy prospects also scored on their debuts in the draw against Sporting. Unfortunately it will probably be the high watermark of their career.

 

 

 

 

 

This is considered excellent? Colour me sceptical.

[shaunvamos]

January 2028

 

 

 

 

 

A perfect start to the year, capped off by our first ever win over PSG, which knocked them down to 2nd on goal difference. It definitely looks like a two horse race for the title, as well as the race for the final Champions League place in 3rd. 

 

 

 

Transfers (Out)

 

 

 

Ahmest is shipped to Turkey, where we make all the profit off him as we signed him for free. He had a decent career here, 85 games in total, and was instrumental in getting us to Ligue 1.  

[shaunvamos]

February 2028

 

 

 

 

 

The loss to Strasbourg tightens up the race for 3rd, but we have Monaco in Monaco in our next league game, which will probably give a definitive advantage to the winner. We've got to hope for a draw there. Meanwhile, we're in the last 4 of the cup, where we'll play struggling Ligue 2 side Stade Lavallois. I'll throw my reserves in there as we have a busy month to deal with.

 

 

 

 

 

The Europa League 2nd knockouts have been drawn, and we have a tough ask in Villarreal despite being the higher seed. They're currently 6th in La Liga so I expect it to be a very close tie.

[shaunvamos]

2028 Youth Intake

 

 

 

Rostand Boyomo 7A  -  Benjamin François 7B  -  Sébastien Steiner 7C

 

 

 

Finally, a great intake! The personalities of the top 3 aren't great, but D-H all have fantastic ones so hopefully it will rub off. Let's see if these guys can make the cut.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[shaunvamos]

March 2028

 

 

 

 

 

I think we can officially wave goodbye to a Champions League spot for next season. Monaco were clearly the better team, and Troyes destroyed our understrength team as we rested everyone. On more positive notes we're into the French Cup final and scraped through on penalties to reach the last 8 of the Europa League. We did deserve to win though as Villarreal equalised in the 90th minute of the second leg.

 

 

 

 

 

We have the opportunity to get revenge on Monaco, but if we lose I won't be too bothered, as it's a French team in the last 4. If Monaco win the whole thing, they get an automatic Champions League spot and then I think the league CL spot would go to us. Lyon are still in the Champions League too, but I don't rate their chances against Bayern.

[shaunvamos]

April 2028

 

 

 

 

 

Monaco knock us out of the Europa League, but they beat Porto 3-2 on aggregate in the semi so they're through to the final! They play Atalanta, which is definitely winnable. That being said, we have an outside chance of qualifying through the league as Monaco's fixture congestion is getting the better of them a little bit. We have our first cup final up next, against PSG, and the final two league games against Nantes and Lens. Monaco have Rennais and Lorient, so their draw is slightly harder. so we'll see how things go.

[shaunvamos]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We limp to the finish, but 4th is still pretty good. We got the exact same wins, draws and losses as last season too, but with a better goal difference. How's that for consistency? Atalanta also beat Monaco in the Europa League final after this screenshot was taken, so we're still in the Europa League next season.

 

 

 

Best XI

 

 

 

Benjamin Blum  -  Abdoulaye Dabo  -  Pablo Rodríguez

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Record Breakers

 

 

 

 

 

Award Winners

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Progress

 

 

[shaunvamos]

2028 Preseason

 

 

 

The stark contrast in prizemoney in France compared to the previous leagues we've been in is so noticeable, as we are still relying on loan players. We need that Champions League money to be able to buy some decent players, or just keep focussing on developing our facilities in the hope that someone great comes through. We've looked at doing the latter this preseason, as the training and youth facilities are being upgraded.

 

On the transfer front however, superstar Pablo Rodriguez is on his way to Belgium for a club record 11.5m, 12 times more than what we paid for him. He wanted a new contract, and his wage demands were far more than what I thought he deserved. He seemed to understand this as Gent are paying him less than what he was earning on his old contract.

 

 

 

Centre Back

 

 

 

Wolfgang joins us on loan from Chelsea, where he's made 1 appearance over 4 seasons after being bought from Hannover for 2.2m. He's worth at least 30 now, and I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do in the backline.

 

 

 

Left Wing Back

 

 

 

Belgian U21 international Tshinabo joins on loan from Genk, and it's surprising he's not in a better role there.

 

 

 

Central Midfielder

 

 

Breton was the best available player interested in joining us as the replacement for Pablo Rodriguez, but the way I pick my teams meant he was selected as a Mezzala first. He's probably better suited to the middle of the pitch anyway, and I hope he'll enjoy his return to his homeland, having departed for Manchester for Sochaux 3 seasons ago for 2.5m.

 

 

 

Striker

 

 

 

Half-German Bilal comes back to Europe to have another crack. Despite his attacking prowess in the attribute polygon his finishing is terrible. Let's hope he can become a creator.

 

 

 

 

 

A strong preseason, and a successful tour of China to get us prepared for a run at a Champions League spot this season.

 

 

 

 

 

The media are finally beginning to show faith in us, as we're predicted in the top half for the first time. But I really want top 3.

 

 

[shaunvamos]

August 2028

 

Transfers (Out)

 

 

 

Two big players leave us, as well as third who didn't really pan our for us. But we get good money for all of them. Schneller heads back to Germany as we turn a 600% profit on him. We weren't quite as successful with the other two, but we still profited. It left us with two gaping holes in our starting lineup though.

 

 

 

Transfers (In)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Toso was supposed to replace Dupont in the midfield, but it turns out he's better suited for us as a LWB. 

 

 

 

 

The departure of Schneller on deadline day meant that we needed a replacement ASAP, so we rushed in Matteo on loan from Fiorentina. He's not as good as Schneller, but his ceiling is much, much higher.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We've had a pretty poor start, but hopefully the win over Marseille is a sign of a turnaround.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a group we will definitely come third in. We might push Villarreal and Benfica, but surely Vllaznia will be the whipping boys.

[shaunvamos]

September 2028

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We go 2-2 in the league this month, and we sit within striking distance of the top 6. With PSG, Lyon and Marseille out of the way already we only have Monaco as the remaining "difficult" game in the first half. Off to a great start in the Europa League too.

[shaunvamos]

October 2028

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The struggle in the league continues, but we're still unbeaten in the Europa League.

[shaunvamos]

November 2028

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Three wins from three in the league, and we will have continental knockout football with one game to go. With a home game against Vllaznia it will probably be the Europa knockouts.

[shaunvamos]

December 2028

 

 

 

 

 

A completely green month, and we smashed Monaco with 3 goals in stoppage time. If we win our game in hand we'll be well in with a shot at the top 3. The 2nd team also needed penalties to beat Ligue 2 Valenciennes, which is fine.

 

 

 

 

 

The better teams will join in the 2nd knockout round, but there are still immensely string clubs here.

 

 

 

 

 

An intake to look forward to, but I think it's overrated. The decent GK prediction is nice though, as we have plenty but they're all poor besides the loanee.

[shaunvamos]

January 2029

 

 

 

 

 

We've now won 10 consecutive games, and we're part of the chasing pack for 2nd.

[shaunvamos]

February 2029

 

 

 

 

 

The only game we lost in the league was to PSG, and we're now 4 points behind the top 3.

 

 

 

 

 

We saw Bilbao off in a tough tie, and now we have Ajax. I think they're beatable, but we'll see how we go. 

[shaunvamos]

2029 Youth Intake

 

 

 

Gérard Buteau 8A*  -  Dame N'Diaye 8B  -  Yassir El Karkouri 8C*

 

A strong intake despite the lack of 5* PA. We get two promising players and one has an excellent personality so he will probably develop quickly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[shaunvamos]

March 2029

 

 

 

 

 

We lose one match all month, and that pushes us down to 5th. On a more positive note the reserves beat Bordeaux granting us a second straight French Cup final, and we flogged Ajax in Amsterdam in what is our biggest win ever to reach the quarter finals of the Europa League.

 

 

 

 

 

Pretty awesome to see three French teams reach this stage, but I don't know how many will progress. I don't like our chances, but we've equalled our progress from last year with an arguably weaker team so I'm pretty happy.

 

 

 

 

 

We also have the number 3 ranked young talent in the game

Edited March 23, 2022 by shaunvamos

[shaunvamos]

April 2029

 

 

 

 

 

A busy month, and it's getting very tight for the last Champions League spots. Our final two games? Lyon and Monaco. We'll have our work cut out here. It may be a Europa League place once more. We're also on the verge of elimination from the Europa League, but we did well to get past Leverkusen.

[shaunvamos]

 

 

 

 

 

 

An unceremonious end to the season, in which we lost the cup final, a spot in the Europa League final and a Champions League berth next season. Still, we're much stronger financially, which means we'll strengthen the squad immensely next season. Surely next year is the year?

 

 

 

Best XI

 

 

 

Wolfgang Bätzing  -  Gaetano Oristanio  -  Siaka Traoré

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Record Breakers

 

 

 

 

 

Award Winners

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Progress

 

 

[shaunvamos]

2029 Preseason

 

 

 

This preseason saw the departure of Simone Simonetti, the central defender we picked up from Palermo for 1.8m seasons ago. We sell him for pretty much 5 times what we paid, so we put those funds to good use. But there was a different theme to our recruitment this time around.

 

 

 

 

 

We had a transfer budget of 30m to begin with, and then the sale of Simonetti added that extra 5m+. The squad also came to me complaining of lack of depth, so what did I do? I signed the best available player in each position on the restricted budget we had. So for example, 30m divided by 11 players is about 2.7m, so I'd look for players that I could buy for that value at the most. If I bought a player for less than that the players bought after that can be bought for more, e.g. if I bought a player for 1m that leaves 29m for 10 players, so the new limit is 2.9. And so on. Some of these guys are good enough for the first team, but they are mostly just squad cover. I will not be starting anyone with a fatigue level lower than "Fresh" so it's important to have a lot of depth.

 

 

 

Goalkeeper

 

 

 

The departure of our loanee keeper Matteo Passerini left a gaping chasm, as our next best keeper was 20 points less than him. Koffi is not as good as Passerini, but he's 18, professional and oozing with potential. Time to see what this half-German can do.

 

 

 

Central Defenders

 

 

 

 

 

With loanee Wolfgang Bätzing and Simonetti leaving the club, Amey (an alumni from my time in Italy) and Effiong step in. We broke all sorts of records to bring Effiong in so he better be worth it. 

 

 

 

Right Wing Back

 

 

 

Muharem has been around since the very first youth intake, making a couple of appearances for the Schalke and Monaco first teams before being picked up by us. I actually wanted him to be a mezzala but RWB is where he'll be.

 

 

 

Defensive Midfielder

 

 

 

Jan has the potential to be another huge bargain having been brought over from Switzerland.

 

 

 

 

 

Decent preseason, but we didn't have our ideal team together until August.

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted mid-table again, but can this year be the year we qualify for the Champions League?

[shaunvamos]

August 2029

 

Transfers (Out)

 

 

A youth player who made a few appearances leaves.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is the best start we've ever had  A strong home win over Monaco and a win over a potential banana skin in Nice sees us equal first at this early stage. PSG have already lost, to Lens!

 

 

 

We're in an okay group. Inter should blow us away, but I'm confident we can beat Fenerbahce and Bialystok should be fairly comfortable.

[shaunvamos]

September 2029

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We got FM'd by Montpellier as they scored with their only shot of the game and it pretty much set the tone for the rest of the month. At least the Europa League got off to a good start.

[shaunvamos]

October 2029

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Our form has stagnated a little bit in the league, and Inter prove that they have no business being in the Europa League. Surely they're the favourites to win the whole thing.

[shaunvamos]

November 2029

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is much more like it! Up into the top 3, and we even managed to beat Inter in the Europa League! I may have to rethink labelling them as cup favourites.

[LUFCspeni]

Really enjoying this thread, very interesting to see the players you are bringing in and retraining. 

If possible, could you share how you work out player overalls?

[shaunvamos]

December 2029

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very encouraged by the draw at PSG, and we have a tiny gap in 3rd. Lyon and PSG already look like they've run away with things though.

 

 

 

 

 

A fairly tough draw to receive this early on, but hopefully we can take them. We played them in the Europa League last season, drawing both games in the group stage.

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent intake?! I think his brain is a little Foggia.

[shaunvamos]

11 hours ago, LUFCspeni said:

Really enjoying this thread, very interesting to see the players you are bringing in and retraining. 

If possible, could you share how you work out player overalls?

Thanks!  Here is the calculations explained:

 

I just thought I'd share how I go about selecting my players.

 

 

This was my default lineup for most of the season. The good thing about Holland is that there are 12 subs so I can have an entire second XI as backups, and the twelfth sub is the guy with most potential. I calculate these ratings using this:

((Sum of all key attributes for role + (0.66 * (sum of all preferable attributes for role))) / total number of key/preferable attributes for role * 5) / rating if all attributes were 20 * 100

 

 So basically what it does it give me a rating out of 100 for each player in a specific position. I may have set the bar a bit too high as it's unrealistic that every key and preferable attribute will be 20, but I suppose it works given that a player isn't ever going to be rated 100/100. I may have to tweak it though as the best players in the world barely reach 80. So maybe I'll have to change the benchmark to be 17 or 18 instead of 20.

 

Thanks to @XaW and @Braumiller, whose thread on attribute weighting was a massive influence on this for me. I've only just discovered the print screen option to create a web page that can allow me to import everything into excel (I was doing everyone manually). That'll save me so much time!

 

Edit: it looks like I'll be using 17 as the benchmark, as using that the Ballon D'Or winner has an overall of just over 90, and Mbappe is a 92. So pretty close to something representing FIFA I'd say.

 

So using this our ideal lineup for next season is like this:

 

 

A couple of new names in there, but this definitely shows a clearer picture of how good we are at the moment, and the areas we need improvement on.

Just to be clear the new formula is

((Sum of all key attributes for role + (0.66 * (sum of all preferable attributes for role))) / total number of key/preferable attributes for role * 5) / rating if all attributes were 17 * 100

[Punch]

20 minutes ago, shaunvamos said:

((Sum of all key attributes for role + (0.66 * (sum of all preferable attributes for role))) / total number of key/preferable attributes for role * 5) / rating if all attributes were 17 * 100

As someone who tracks attributes, I can tell you this formula is excellent for tracking growth and change, as well as comparing players who can play multiple positions, and also against each other.