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Does FM Predict the Future of Young Players?


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I'm playing in year 2028 and this currently average player IRL became the best super star ever in 2028.  I wonder if we go back to older versions of FM, we find that younger players of the past turned out to be mega stars IRL, according to what FM generated. (If such predictability is true, there is tremendous business potential for professional scouts to actually use FM to look for potential talent). Any studies or experience on this topic?

 

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Edited by phd_angel
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Do you consider Youssoufa Moukoko an average player in real life? He is rated as one of the biggest talents in the football world as a whole. He made his debut for Dortmund the day after turning 16, and the only reason they had to wait was because of the age restrictions...

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And, yes, FM try to predict the best players in the world, by giving them high potential. And many clubs do use the FM database in their scouting.

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vor 9 Minuten schrieb IbrahimAliMaher:

Not at all, they are just not always predict it right because we are talking about humans and not machines.  I mean what else than predicting player potential or their current ability is Football Manager about?

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, IbrahimAliMaher said:

 

18 minutes ago, Daveincid said:

Not at all, they are just not always predict it right because we are talking about humans and not machines.  I mean what else than predicting player potential or their current ability is Football Manager about?

Some big club should allocate some data scientist to run a regression analysis of how many FM wonderkids become stars IRL, how many don't, and how many average regens actually become super stars IRL. If there is a correlation, then they need to identify the common variables or patterns that determine predictability. This is actually big business. A big FM aficionado could get a job with a study like this. 

Edited by phd_angel
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4 minutes ago, phd_angel said:

 

Some big club should allocate some data scientist to run a regression analysis of how many FM wonderkids become stars IRL, how many don't, and how many average regens actually become super stars IRL. If there is a correlation, then they need to identify the common variables or patterns that determine predictability. This is actually big business. A big FM aficionado could get a job with a study like this. 

Here is an article from 2014 about how they already did.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/aug/12/why-clubs-football-manager-scouting-tool

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vor 1 Minute schrieb phd_angel:

 

Some big club should allocate some data scientist to run a regression analysis of how many FM wonderkids become stars IRL, how many doesn't, and how many average regens actually become super stars IRL. If there is a correlation, then they need to identify the common variables or patterns that determine predictability. This is actually big business.

Big Clubs already have data scientists? Which you also have in FM. As @XaW said there are already teams using the data of Football Manager / the researchers. 

As I wrote above, you can't predict it always right, because we are talking about humans. Despite that, wonderkids are only a small group of players. Judging/predicting all theese players which do have potential for a professional career is the main part.

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, XaW said:

Thanks so much for sharing the article, but that's not what I'm talking about. Prozone FM15 was just a large database of players that is sold to scouts. What I'm talking about is *predictive* analytics, an emerging field in data science. It's the ability to predict future performance based on current data patterns. But, in fact, I'm suggesting something that's even simpler (but statistically more complex than Prozone): it's a regression analysis of, say, top 1,000 players IRL compared to how they were featured in older FM versions (five or ten years earlier).  If the model works in general, then a club can invest in the regen [young player IRL] with a probability (never certainty) that he will become a top player. That's about minimizing financial risk. 

Edited by phd_angel
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10 hours ago, phd_angel said:

Thanks so much for sharing the article, but that's not what I'm talking about. Prozone FM15 was just a large database of players that is sold to scouts. What I'm talking about is *predictive* analytics, an emerging field in data science. It's the ability to predict future performance based on current data patterns. But, in fact, I'm suggesting something that's even simpler (but statistically more complex than Prozone): it's a regression analysis of, say, top 1,000 players IRL compared to how they were featured in older FM versions (five or ten years earlier).  If the model works in general, then a club can invest in the regen with a probability (never certainty) that he will become a top player. That's about minimizing financial risk. 

You know regens aren't real people right?

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We do predict what we think a youngster is capable of. The biggest challenge with young players though is that you begin to assess them usually at a stage when these players are still living with their parents, still have educational commitments and have a lot of structure in their life without much that can infringe on this.

Once they hit that age where they can start to drink legally, gamble, have a contract bringing in money that opens doors previously closed and can move into an environment where they're living alone and having to sort things out for themselves there will be those who struggle to adapt to this. There's no way of knowing who will cope with this and who will struggle until its upon them. For some players it's not even right away at 18 but maybe when their first transfer happens, away from the club they grew up at and so on. 

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