My Maths May Be Wrong - But Doesn't the 3rd Place System Mean All Final Games Should Be Played Simultaneously?

[MIR17]

We all know that groups play at the same time on the last game so they can't deliberately play out draws, but that isn't the case for the 3rd place teams, so the 3rd place system can be gamed. 

If Switzerland fail to beat Turkey tonight by at least 3 goals, Austria vs Ukraine will know that a draw will be enough for them both to qualify tomorrow so they can deliberately play out the draw (as 3rd in group E already couldn't catch them as well as now in Group A)?

Similarly, Portugal could easily know by Wednesday that 3pts guarantees 3rd place regardless of GD or at the very least they know the GD attainable so they know how many they can lose by. Whereas Finland Russia and Denmark don't get that luxury?

Let's say Finland are losing 0-1 in injury time to Belgium and have a corner - do they throw their keeper forward not knowing that conceding could knock them out on GD, whereas Portugal will very well know that.

I thought the final games of a league/group games all being played at the same time were brought in after a notorious draw between Austria and German given the other team played first means they had exactly the same knowledge, but because of these 3rd place finishes, aren't we in a position again where Austria vs Ukraine can do exactly that and deliberately play out a draw with the earlier knowledge of the previously played Turkey vs Switzerland game giving them an unfair advantage?

So shouldn't every game be played simultaneously with this system where everyone who finishes 3rd essentially goes into a league?

[Astafjevs]

Not really feasible to do that though is it. You'd have to leave a few days of no football to give whoever played yesterday some chance to rest.

But yeh, that is the result of not playing every single remaining group game at the same time. Not much you can do about it if you're going to have 3rd place finishers qualifying.

[pearcey_90]

We saw it at the last Euros with Portugal. They knew 3 points would be enough, which is why the final 20 or so minutes of their game against Hungary just died out. As Hungary won the group, and Portugal was through. Wasn’t worth it for Portugal to push to win.

[himan]

There is also some disadvantage being in later groups, getting less rest for the next rounds. It might middle out.

[The Amazing Dale Watkins]

That's right. Which is why my money is on a 0-0 between Austria and Ukraine. It won't be as egregious as the famous Disgrace of Gijon because you can't get away with that anymore, but I'm sure it won't be a thriller.

[Rob1981]

I will be amazed if Austria or Ukraine even bother to cross the halfway line.  May as well call it 0-0 now.  They can't even go for the win to try and get an easier R16 draw because Netherlands would still finish top on h2h record.

[Astafjevs]

Might actually get an easier draw finishing 3rd as well. Not entirely convinced Group B will produce a 3rd place qualifier, and if that's the case then 3rd in Group C will more than likely play the winner of Spain's group.

[VamPook]

9 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

I will be amazed if Austria or Ukraine even bother to cross the halfway line.  May as well call it 0-0 now.  They can't even go for the win to try and get an easier R16 draw because Netherlands would still finish top on h2h record.

Why? Is 4 points that assured of qualification?

Also wouldn't whoever want to secure 2nd place from each other

[Rob1981]

12 minutes ago, VamPook said:

Why? Is 4 points that assured of qualification?

Also wouldn't whoever want to secure 2nd place from each other

A draw would leave Ukraine second and Austria third, both with four points and 0GD and separated on goals scored. It doesn’t mean Austria definitely definitely get through but they would have four points and a better GD than Switzerland in the third place team head to head table. 

From there they only need one of the other third place teams across four groups to finish worse off. It would need a pretty specific combination of results across several other games for none these to finish on only three points or to finish on four points but with an inferior GD.

I can’t see either of them pushing to try and open up the game and risk losing and only ending up on three points.

Also whoever finishes second gets Italy in the R16 so there is no sense in Austria pushing to leapfrog Ukraine when third place potentially gets them an easier tie.

[Astafjevs]

I think Group B is highly unlikely to produce a 3rd place qualifier. Would need Finland to get something from Belgium and Russia to get something from Denmark. Otherwise whoever is in 3rd place is going to have 3 points, a couple of goals scored, and probably a negative GD. Given the glut of teams carefully planning their way to 4 points, that probably isn't going to cut it.

[Rob1981]

Never mind the third place team, I can see Group B finishing 9-3-3-3 so even the second place team would only have three points. Just needs Belgium to beat Finland and Denmark to beat Russia.

I mean it shouldn’t be all that unusual for one team to win all their games and the other three to win one and lose one against each other. But having a group runner up with only one win that goes through despite having lost twice... Pretty sure this has never happened at a World Cup or a Euros, at least in the three points for a win era. Has happened a few times in youth tournaments iirc.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Rob1981

[bestbrother]

11 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

I will be amazed if Austria or Ukraine even bother to cross the halfway line.  May as well call it 0-0 now.  They can't even go for the win to try and get an easier R16 draw because Netherlands would still finish top on h2h record.

I reckon they should be allowed to agree to that before hand if they want and not bother turning up.

Either that and just kick off but ignore the ball and play bulldog or something.

[skybluedave]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if Portugal lose to France they pretty much out aren't they? Can't see them going through with 3 points and Neg GD

[Astafjevs]

They could lose 1-0 and they'd have a 0 GD. Might be enough to get them through

[Astafjevs]

Quite a few teams will be depending on Sweden not losing to Poland. So long as Poland don't win, the third place team in that group won't have more than 3 points and, at best, they'll have a 0 GD. Could be a negative GD if Spain or Slovakia win

[VamPook]

So Ukraine-Austria drawing, then Russia and Finland getting a result tonight would start making the other groups sweat as well

[Astafjevs]

Most probably yeh. Because that would mean the first three groups all have a 3rd place finisher sitting on 4 points. Only four 3rd place teams can progress, and at the halfway stage three of them would be on 4; means you could have a situation where someone with 4 points goes out.

Switzerland might get a bit twitchy because they've got a negative GD, and it would take some interesting combination of results for another 3rd place team to finish on 4 points with a negative GD. Scotland winning 1-0 would do it; so would Poland winning by two goals and Spain or Slovakia winning their match (not a draw). Not impossible, but it's a specific combo that's unlikely to happen.