Scientific Approach to Wonderkids

[drandyhills]

Hi

Wondering if you can help.

I am wanting a more evidence based approach to scouting. I've started a little bit of this already but wondered if anyone is way ahead of me. Let me give some examples of what I have found so far in my game (I'm 1 year in)

1. 20-21 Regens - only 1 of the 91 players under 21 with PA>164 had Determination <10. Hence, if your scouts have a 4 1/2 - 5* potential player, and Determination <10, best to ignore them.

2. All those with PA >154 had Professionalism >9. Therefore if 4 1/2 - 5* potential, and professionalism is character trait, then consider signing.

3. If <20 years old AND international cap with Australia, then PA high (2 players, PA 158, 170). 

4. Of the 390 players labelled as "promising young ...", 65 had PA >150 (16.6%). 

5. Of the 53 players labelled as "Wonderkid", 49 had PA >150 (92%).

I wondered if anyone has looked at things like sensitivity/specificity/PPV/NPV and applied them to players in FM, rather than just opinion (e.g. "his stats look good" and nonsense like that). Hence, you could come up with algorithms that could help you find Wonderkids more accurately.

Would appreciate any feedback. Thanks!

Andy

[BuryBlade]

I like this post. I’m not smart enough to add very much but it reminds me of the Moneyball film and the use of data/an equation to get things down to 1 number that can be used to compare players. 

[XaW]

I *think* I read somewhere that the "wonderkid" tag is actually based on CA (not PA!) and (world?) reputation, in addition to age of course.

[bigmattb28]

Nah fam I just sign the regens that look the best, not those morons with the stupid big afro's, no matter how good the scouts say they are

[Platinum]

On 11/05/2021 at 11:12, XaW said:

I *think* I read somewhere that the "wonderkid" tag is actually based on CA (not PA!) and (world?) reputation, in addition to age of course.

Yeah you did read this, think it was Seb, and maybe others that have said this

[HUNT3R]

On 11/05/2021 at 12:12, XaW said:

I *think* I read somewhere that the "wonderkid" tag is actually based on CA (not PA!) and (world?) reputation, in addition to age of course.

 

8 hours ago, francis#17 said:

Yeah you did read this, think it was Seb, and maybe others that have said this

Yeah, it's based on age, CA and rep. In FM19, I think, I bought a "promising..." player who changed to "wonderkid" within a week of joining, just because of the rep boost.

I also did a quick test on FM20 (the post should still be on the forum) to show that reputation was a factor and that PA wasn't.