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I love the game, but there are times when it is just toe-curlingly bad. This seems to be mostly down to an overly intrusive game engine attempting to build narratives.

As an example.......

I am currently playing as Newcastle Utd, decent season, 8th in the Prem, 3 games to go, on a good run of form with confidence high, same team as previous 3 games, no new injuries etc...

playing at home against West Ham Utd, ‘woeful’ form, lost last 5, injury problems etc....

betting odds are 1/3 for a home win....

You can probably guess what happens next.....

it took 8 attempts to beat them!!!!

Six losses and one draw!

Now, there are of course always ‘outlier’ results in football, that’s the beauty of the game - the possibility of anyone beating anyone on any given day, BUT.... when the game engine attempts to ‘warp’ reality into effectively reversing the natural order of probability, then that’s just a bit silly.

 

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31 minutes ago, Freakiie said:

This has been discussed a million times before. No, the ME does not do this.

Do you understand probability?

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Did you reset to the team talk at the end of the match before, because that is when the game starts calculating the next result?  Anyway, that game doesn't warp reality.

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Resets were only back to the match preview, immediately before playing the game(s).

I note your comment about the game not ‘warping reality’.

Back in the real world, Leicester lost 2-4 vs Newcastle last night.
As an outlier, this was a surprising but not unthinkable result. However, the notion that Newcastle would beat Leicester at the King Power on 6 out of 8 occasions is obviously nonsense.

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14 minutes ago, Inter61 said:

Resets were only back to the match preview, immediately before playing the game(s).

I note your comment about the game not ‘warping reality’.

Back in the real world, Leicester lost 2-4 vs Newcastle last night.
As an outlier, this was a surprising but not unthinkable result. However, the notion that Newcastle would beat Leicester at the King Power on 6 out of 8 occasions is obviously nonsense.

You're funny!

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The fact that you're trying to look at this as separate occasions says enough about how little you actually understand as to what goes into a match. Instead of asking people whether they know about probability, perhaps you should enlighten yourself on how FM matches actually work?

Like I said, this topic has been discussed endlessly, feel free to look up one of the previous topics where people have explained this if you want to actually learn, rather than just blaming the game for "being rigged".

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28 minutes ago, Inter61 said:

Resets were only back to the match preview, immediately before playing the game(s).

I note your comment about the game not ‘warping reality’.

Back in the real world, Leicester lost 2-4 vs Newcastle last night.
As an outlier, this was a surprising but not unthinkable result. However, the notion that Newcastle would beat Leicester at the King Power on 6 out of 8 occasions is obviously nonsense.

That's not how it works, if you had turned time (warping reality?) back to before the game and all variables was the same, then of course the same would happen. In the same way that you would likely win that match the next season, because the variables are totally changed.

For what it's worth, SI have stated several times that the game does not "create drama" or "conspire to get a result". The match engine takes all the variables and then runs the match when you see the "warming up". It does this to know when highlights happen. If you, at any later point in the match, do something, then the match is replayed from that point on since the variables have now changed, and will show future highlights again.

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4 hours ago, Inter61 said:

Do you understand probability?

I like how you're talking about results in isolation, as if tactics, morale, team talks and all other factors the game takes into account wouldn't matter at all.

Is there a chance West Ham could be using a formation that's a natural counter to yours? Is it possible your players are getting complacent after a good run? Maybe it's your choice of Roles/Instructions that makes you exposed against West Ham's style?

Not trying to be snide, but I'd rather analyze the games and see where things are possibly going wrong. You could look into what kind of goals you're conceding or where your chances are breaking down, if you're not creating any. If it took you eight attempts to get a win with a better squad, the issue is most likely tactical and that win of yours was really down to luck.

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Posted (edited)

Speaking about Newcastle.... don't trust the results (or WDL runs) in a low scoring sports such as this -- or a simulation based on it. Neither your own or your opponents'. Both in game as well as in real football, it's 90 minutes of kicking, but woefully few seconds of it settling winner or loser. There's a reason performance analysts, bookies as well as bettors are looking elsewhere, because any such run can be wholly random. Teams can play rather mediocre and go on good runs  as well as vice versa (additionally, even if all teams were equal, there would be serial losers as well as winners over the course of but 30-40 matches, which you can actually test in-game via the games editor and cloning teams).

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Why Brentford are leading the way in recruitment strategy. (footballbh.net)

 

The League table always lies

We can all agree that as far as poor football decisions go, giving Alan Pardew a six-year contract is close to the top of the pile. Using Benham’s betting projection algorithms, they took a detailed look into Newcastle’s astonishing 2011/12 season in which they finished in fifth place. On face value, the performance that year from Newcastle was outstanding and worthy of an improved contract. However, when looking at the underlying statistics, the duo were able to point out that Newcastle had hit a purple patch over the year and performed way over the odds. Benham used expected points. This is a statistic developed to predict the outcome of football matches for his betting company.[/quote]



FM 2019 has introduced somewhat similar metrics in the "expected Points table" (which teams can on occasion over and underperform by a good few points). Additionally, what others said about being able to "read" a match rings also true. Multiple reloads without a win point to that win being lucky in the end either way. With unlucky losses (loads of chances but the opponent nicking it from a corner, say), a reload typically resolves things immediately.

Edited by Svenc
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So when you win, is that you or is that the game imposing its narrative that your team is going to win now?

I'd hate to think all my achievements in this game were based on the game determining a narrative in which my team were to win the champions league this season and it not having anything to do with the decisions I make.

 

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