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Reloading for Son


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Let's talk about the white whale, the needle in the haystack, the son. Being over 35 seems very likely and makes sense (28 year old manager finds his 16 year old son? Do the maths), but I'm wanting to go deeper.

I'm wondering what the collective mind of these forums knows about reloading for a son. Do you save and reload the day before your actual intake, the preview? 

Somewhere in the game code must be the line/ function that runs the 1/whatever thousand chance for "generate son". I asked Seb on twitter about this (generated on preview Vs generated on intake) and he said:

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Preview. Although, I actually think it may be slightly before the visible preview even

So in reality, it looks as though to reload for a son, you would have to do what I'm currently doing - save the day before the preview, save the preview as a seperate save game, and holiday to the intake to see if there's a son. If not (which obviously, is likely), reload original day-before-preview save and begin again. 

The 'before the visible preview' is new to me, and obviously makes it even harder. I get they don't want us reloading for sons and things easily, but lets be honest, gamers gonna game.

Does anybody have any useful information to add, experiences of reloading etc? For example, and I highly doubt this, but has anyone seen any unique lines in the preview intake, "a recognisable face at left back" or anything similiar that might indicate a son?

Having played since CM01/02 and never had my own son (saw Mourinho's regen son once), this is quickly becoming my life goal. All experiences and questions are based on "full" Football Manager / not FMC or Touch.

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You have to remember that in previous times it was becoming something some players would do, reloading persistently around the time of youth intakes to try and boost their own youth intake. 

You can maybe argue it should've been left like that, but its something that would largely be considered degenerate gameplay and people of certain personalities would feel compelled to reload beyond the point of frustration. This means a lot of the workings with producing regens is obscured more and I don't know if SI will have any interest in putting specifics to the mechanics.

How accurate this figure is, I do not know, but the figure I've seen used most often is 1/10,000 for a son in any given intake. 

One question I'd have is when are the names/favoured club/favoured personnel profiles generated? Keep in mind the game might determine you have 18 players coming through with PA's of A/B/C and attributes of X/Y/Z but are the names generated on the same day? I genuinely don't know, if you reload the day before they actually appear in the youth candidates squad do their names change?

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1 minute ago, santy001 said:

You have to remember that in previous times it was becoming something some players would do, reloading persistently around the time of youth intakes to try and boost their own youth intake. 

Yeah I can see why they added the preview aspect, reloading the one day was a very simple way to obscure the average PA coming out of our academy. Understandable for a more realistic gameplay, simply annoying in this particular instance of "im 20 season in, im committing, i want that son"!

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One question I'd have is when are the names/favoured club/favoured personnel profiles generated? Keep in mind the game might determine you have 18 players coming through with PA's of A/B/C and attributes of X/Y/Z but are the names generated on the same day? I genuinely don't know, if you reload the day before they actually appear in the youth candidates squad do their names change?

From what I've found, reloading the day before the actual intake can vary CA, PA, but generally names/ nationalities seem to be set on the preview. Can't say I've noticed relationships changing, as I've never had anything out of the ordinary (often just me and some backroom staff as favoured personnel). I have read a thread of someone on FM17 who seemed to notice if he had a gen that shared his last name, reloading just the intake day would eventually link him as a son, but I think that might be outdated now, especially with Seb saying it's done around the preview. 

I get the whole thing is mysterious and I do understand SI not wanting FM to become an easy game to 'metagame'. Just wondered if the community had some observations from experience that may help.

I've also heard the 1/10k chance and based on my experiences of general reloading intakes, seems accurate!

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I have only ever had two sons in my FM career. One back on 17/18 who was terrible. His name was Julien, which I found even more disheartening than his lack of talent.

However, on my CAC save on this FM, I actually got a very good son. Can't find the screenshot I took of him in his prime, a time when he was captaining both England and RB Leipzig. Was hoping for a 100-not-out on caps, but 92 is still fantastic. Fired a very decent U-19s staff member to get my son in, but he seems keen to study for his coaching badges so he should reach an acceptable level of coaching/managing.

Just for those who may be suspicious as I have the editor enabled, that's simply for cosmetic purposes. I like to change my kits every season or two to keep it fresh. 

Son.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

The 1/10,000 odds have been confirmed by Miles on Twitter, and that those odds are per newgen.  So with an average intake size of about 15 kids, your odds of getting a son in any given intake are, amusingly, 1 in 666.  Well, 666.7 but that's not as fun :)

I've crunched the numbers over half a dozen intake reloads and I would say with a moderate degree of confidence that PA range is set on the preview day, but the exact PA is decided on intake day.  If you look at the below, you can see that while there's a reasonable amount of variance in the CA/PA of each player, it's generally less than 40 points (average CA variance is 25 points, for PA it's 38).  Interestingly there seems to be more variance with lower PA players, but my data set's not really large enough say for sure whether that's an actual trend or just a coincidence.

Name, nationality, and position all look to be set on Preview Day as none of these change at all.

image.thumb.png.d7c11f46a78d08b7b82b75f91b97065f.png

Player CA CA CA CA CA CA AVG MIN MAX VAR   Player PA PA PA PA PA PA AVG MIN MAX VAR
Goode 52 69 45 52 72 94 64 45 94 49   Goode 132 141 115 132 140 130 132 115 141 26
Golabek 63 56 40 40 59 63 54 40 63 23   Golabek 80 68 66 83 87 64 75 64 87 23
Addo 52 53 59 58 53 40 53 40 59 19   Addo 109 85 80 61 81 104 87 61 109 48
Besnard 68 53 51 41 50 68 55 41 68 27   Besnard 75 98 106 61 123 78 90 61 123 62
Morrison 66 40 40 52 59 41 50 40 66 26   Morrison 126 54 67 79 96 50 79 50 126 76
Hamilton 40 57 68 43 44 44 49 40 68 28   Hamilton 117 125 131 124 98 127 120 98 131 33
Allan 56 79 77 55 65 51 64 51 79 28   Allan 122 155 149 139 145 135 141 122 155 33
Morrison 47 51 68 40 56 69 55 40 69 29   Morrison 81 54 94 128 77 82 86 54 128 74
Sassi 37 45 40 58 46 53 47 37 58 21   Sassi 114 114 122 120 123 102 116 102 123 21
Burpo 76 71 61 71 79 71 72 61 79 18   Burpo 148 158 140 150 159 163 153 140 163 23
Forde 45 67 66 40 54 60 55 40 67 27   Forde 115 73 73 73 83 74 82 73 115 42
Tyrelis 59 66 48 64 45 43 54 43 66 23   Tyrelis 94 90 61 66 74 82 78 61 94 33
Odle 68 41 41 43 45 65 51 41 68 27   Odle 136 133 85 122 124 130 122 85 136 51
Evans 44 47 55 43 48 39 46 39 55 16   Evans 113 117 116 112 126 112 116 112 126 14
Riches 69 50 60 52 55 59 58 50 69 19   Riches 132 98 132 122 130 125 123 98 132 34
Bowers 82 73 62 78 70 76 74 62 82 20   Bowers 147 133 143 148 130 143 141 130 148 18
              56     25                 109     38

From that, I would say that it's clear that if you want to improve your odds of having a son appear then it's the day before Preview Day you need to be reloading.

I would love to see SI improve the odds of having a son come through.  I've been playing this game since CM 97/98 and never had one :/

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That variance seems to line up with players getting minus numbers for their ca/pa, which gives them a range within 30 (-10 is 170-200, -9 is 160-190, -8 is 150-180 etc etc). I would guess this is set when they're created at preview day and the actual values then get set when the youth candidates come through

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On 05/03/2021 at 11:32, Britrock said:

That variance seems to line up with players getting minus numbers for their ca/pa, which gives them a range within 30 (-10 is 170-200, -9 is 160-190, -8 is 150-180 etc etc). I would guess this is set when they're created at preview day and the actual values then get set when the youth candidates come through

Agreed.

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I got a son in my first season with the club, so the old rumor that you have to be with a club for 10 years before a son appears in the intake is no longer true.

FWIW, my manager starts off at 60yo at a foreign club and with minimal reputation.

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5 hours ago, Grifty said:

Do you get a notification saying something like "Your son has come through the youth ranks" or is it a case you have to notice him?

I got one in FM19, so I don't think the preview existed back then. I noticed because he had the same last name as me, and when I looked into his favoured personnel, I was listed as father.

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On 08/03/2021 at 12:33, FMFutbol said:

I got a son in my first season with the club, so the old rumor that you have to be with a club for 10 years before a son appears in the intake is no longer true.

FWIW, my manager starts off at 60yo at a foreign club and with minimal reputation.

Very envious, over here! xD

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On 05/03/2021 at 11:28, Matt_Ray said:

Name, nationality, and position all look to be set on Preview Day as none of these change at alI would love to see SI improve the odds of having a son come through.  I've been playing this game since CM 97/98 and never had one :/From that, I would say that it's clear that if you want to improve your odds of having a son appear then it's the day before Preview Day you need to be reloading.

Some good info in your post, but I don't think you are correct with this. There's currently nothing you can do to re-load for a son, because the game won't tell you if there's a son before youth day happens. If you keep reloading preview day, you might change the names, but you won't know if there's a son amongst them, rendering the endeavour rather pointless. You'd have to save the game, holiday months from just before preview day to intake day, and then reload just before preview day again. 

   

Slightly off topic, but do you have great midfielders and weak wingers in the save where you reloaded this? Matt Burpo is rated with 2 to 3 stars potential, despite often having the best PA in the intake. In one case, a 147 PA player gets 4+1 stars. and Burpo with 148 PA gets 1½+1 star.. In another, he gets 2½ star potential with 158 PA. I'm sorry what? On the other hand Reece Bowers is very often the highest rated player by stars, and while his PA is pretty good, he's never as good as the stars would lead you to believe. Bizarre, really shows that you can't trust star ratings this early at all.

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On 16/03/2021 at 14:04, Nacaw said:

If you keep reloading preview day, you might change the names, but you won't know if there's a son amongst them, rendering the endeavour rather pointless. You'd have to save the game, holiday months from just before preview day to intake day, and then reload just before preview day again. 

Sorry, I meant more that there's no point at all reloading on the day before intake day as everything bar attributes and ability is already set in stone, and therefore the only day that will allow anything to change is the day before preview day.  But, yes, as you point out there's no way of knowing if you have a son in that intake until months later, making reloading at all, at any point, fairly futile.  I suspect this is deliberate on SI's part.

 

On 16/03/2021 at 14:04, Nacaw said:

Bizarre, really shows that you can't trust star ratings this early at all.

I could be wrong, but I think how the star ratings are calculated has changed - certainly how "best position" is worked out has.  A player's attributes for a position now seem to be far more important to their star rating than their ability score, which makes sense I guess.  A player with great speed and decent crossing and technique could still make an effective winger even if the rest of his stats are mediocre.  Likewise, Best Position is now a reflection of their attributes and positional strength, rather than just the latter.  Previously I think it was just whichever position the player was a natural in, whereas now I'm seeing lots of players having Best Position for a position they're only "accomplished" in.

Oh, and to answer your question, I would say my first team wingers are of a higher standard than my midfielders so I don't think that's what's affecting the ratings.

Edited by Matt_Ray
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  • 2 months later...

I've been following this thread because I hoped that someone would report getting a son, and I could ask to see their preview in case there was a clue within it heralding the arrival of a son.

Well, I've had a son, and there was absolutely nothing in the preview that could be a code or indication.

I'll chuck it here, just to firmly establish that it offers zero clues. My son is an unpromising central midfielder in the lower half of potential.

20210528154531_1.thumb.jpg.cf6e87f6892a2ab864ac170808ceab90.jpg

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Only happened to me once (been playing since CM2 days) He was awful and had a name which my wife said we wouldn’t ever pick if we had a child! Haha

Didn’t stop me picking him every week, good old nepotism! 

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Posted (edited)

Almost certainly never get a son again. My son's name is awful too; Barry!

What I'm hoping for is the golden ticket, Barry to come out as gay in the game.  That really would be a rarity. A gay son.

If he is gay, I'm going to force him into an arranged marriage with one of my others players called Harry Barry. 

I have the honour of introducing you for the fist time to the newly married couple Barry and Harry Barry.

Edited by vikeologist
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On 30/05/2021 at 13:21, vikeologist said:

I've been following this thread because I hoped that someone would report getting a son, and I could ask to see their preview in case there was a clue within it heralding the arrival of a son.

Well, I've had a son, and there was absolutely nothing in the preview that could be a code or indication.

I'll chuck it here, just to firmly establish that it offers zero clues. My son is an unpromising central midfielder in the lower half of potential.

So it's confirmed, then - there's no advance warning at all, and nothing you can do as a player to improve the odds. I really hope SI do something about this - it should never be a dead cert but there should be something we can do to improve our chances, and some sort of notice that it's happening.  I mean, realistically, if you were managing at a club then you'd fricking know when your son joins the academy, surely? xD

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2 hours ago, Matt_Ray said:

So it's confirmed, then - there's no advance warning at all, and nothing you can do as a player to improve the odds. I really hope SI do something about this - it should never be a dead cert but there should be something we can do to improve our chances, and some sort of notice that it's happening.  I mean, realistically, if you were managing at a club then you'd fricking know when your son joins the academy, surely? xD

The flipside is of course that should your 10,000-1 odds come up, you can keep reloading until you get a son with decent ability / potential. Obviously there are limits. Like my son was rubbish, (and because I'm doing a challenge I didn't reload to make him better, and also because it didn't occur to me). I did later go back though and see how good a son I could generate from reloading, and i did generate a few slightly better versions. He was in the lower middle of my intake, so he would never be a wonderful player. the parameters for each player are somewhat set before they arrive.

But that was just a test. In my actual save, I'm stuck with a donkey.

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On 05/06/2021 at 19:22, vikeologist said:

The flipside is of course that should your 10,000-1 odds come up, you can keep reloading until you get a son with decent ability / potential. Obviously there are limits. Like my son was rubbish, (and because I'm doing a challenge I didn't reload to make him better, and also because it didn't occur to me). I did later go back though and see how good a son I could generate from reloading, and i did generate a few slightly better versions. He was in the lower middle of my intake, so he would never be a wonderful player. the parameters for each player are somewhat set before they arrive.

But that was just a test. In my actual save, I'm stuck with a donkey.

Mate, if I ever get a son actually come through, I would have zero qualms about using the in-game editor to give him 200 PA xD

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