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vor 1 Minute schrieb iAlwaysWin:

Which is why i said can and cannot become, a wonderkid with 200 PA still has the opportunity to become world class, my player for example who has a PA of 128 will never become world class, no matter how good he becomes for me because the game is restricted to fixed numbers.

In theory yes, but it's a game and not human beings. Even the most determinded player with the highest level of professionalism won't become a superstar without talent. Even if I work hard on my accelleration I will never be as quick as salah. Some stuff is just genetic, and in my opinion this is reflected pretty good with the current system.

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29 minutes ago, Tyburn said:

Why do you know they don’t have any wonderkids? Because you checked. Stop looking and enjoy each player for what he is in the moment and what he brings to your team, in the moment.

Knowing everyone’s PA just takes the fun out of it imo.

I didn't checked. I knew from scout report and from the fact that Serie C never had wonderkids, closes to it can be Verratti but that was Serie B back in 2010. 

But you are somehow right since I've started checking PA in FM2021 because I was testing how limited the development system is 

Screenshot_4.jpg.031378fc8a0c0a56d147de625b533bf9.jpg

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10 hours ago, iAlwaysWin said:

But there's one thing that's stopping this, his capped potential ability, who decided in the real world that Tyrhys Dolan will never become a top premier league player? who has this crystal ball to set such limitations on a player?

In my pre-game editor Tyrhys Dolan has a minus PA which is what I’d expect for an 18 year-old.

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1 minute ago, Stuniverse said:

In my pre-game editor Tyrhys Dolan has a minus PA which is what I’d expect for an 18 year-old.

Yes you are correct but he still has a fixed PA number when i load the game, maybe i got a low roll on this one and maybe he can have higher on a different save with a different team, but how much higher i wouldn't think much if any to be honest, he most likely a -7, i got the roll of 128 PA in game , which is quite limited for him as a player to progress.

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1 hour ago, iAlwaysWin said:

Yes you are correct but he still has a fixed PA number when i load the game, maybe i got a low roll on this one and maybe he can have higher on a different save with a different team, but how much higher i wouldn't think much if any to be honest, he most likely a -7, i got the roll of 128 PA in game , which is quite limited for him as a player to progress.

A PA of 128 isn't limited that would give him potential to be a decent Prem player and with a good distribution of attributes he could perform on a good Prem level, yes he's not going to be World Class but that is a good PA value for a Championship youngster.

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2 hours ago, Marko1989 said:

Well, that is exactly what is the problem with current system.

I have saved this screenshot from FM 2015. I have started the save game with Pordenone, I think Serie C in Italy.

Screenshot_3.jpg.a36d0e172ad07e595b75b0fffef72ed4.jpg

For a 16 year old, with 12 passing, 13 technique, 13 acceleration, 13 decisions he was by far the best midfielder in my team. Yes, he has 6 determination. But he is just 16y old. What if he change his look on life, on football, ok he maybe has Balotelli personality but what if he changes suddenly and became more motivated and such. That is where dynamic potential/personality would be good.

So, I have this player and as I've said, he is my best midfielder. You could say, great, I will try to build my team around him, maybe he became very good midfielder. But current system does not even let you even try that. 

I already know that he will not develop much, because I already know that Pordenone has no any wonderkids, and, I already know that there is no any point of keeping him or giving him playing time since he will not develop. At 16y of age in FM you can guess players whole career.

There is nothing that can convince me that this system is not limited and that it can't be improved with something else.

He looks like a player with passing range and touch, decent speed and very limited mental abilities (probably his attributes were all random anyway...). 

Sometimes teenage players like that improve a lot to fix those flaws, but virtually none of them become stars at a higher level and the ones that do, as you say, are not playing for Pordenone. So a real manager would not expect that his rawness will disappear and he'll guide you to successive promotions if only you play him enough, Why should an FM player?

In reality Cramraro is now 23 years old and Google suggests he is now playing amateur football in one of Italy's enormous number of sixth tier local leagues after a couple of seasons in Serie D

How exactly is it a problem that the game wasn't designed for him to become a wonderkid? 

-

Equally perplexed by people using Bojan to question the idea of PA. His real life career trajectory is exactly what this thread was setup to complain about: a player who had so much talent at 17 he broke La Liga's debut season goalscoring record and then.... didn't learn anything at all from playing well in top level football alongside genuinely great players and coaches, because he'd smashed into a ceiling you might call 'potential'.

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23 hours ago, enigmatic said:

He looks like a player with passing range and touch, decent speed and very limited mental abilities (probably his attributes were all random anyway...). 

Sometimes teenage players like that improve a lot to fix those flaws, but virtually none of them become stars at a higher level and the ones that do, as you say, are not playing for Pordenone. So a real manager would not expect that his rawness will disappear and he'll guide you to successive promotions if only you play him enough, Why should an FM player?

In reality Cramraro is now 23 years old and Google suggests he is now playing amateur football in one of Italy's enormous number of sixth tier local leagues after a couple of seasons in Serie D

How exactly is it a problem that the game wasn't designed for him to become a wonderkid? 

-

Equally perplexed by people using Bojan to question the idea of PA. His real life career trajectory is exactly what this thread was setup to complain about: a player who had so much talent at 17 he broke La Liga's debut season goalscoring record and then.... didn't learn anything at all from playing well in top level football alongside genuinely great players and coaches, because he'd smashed into a ceiling you might call 'potential'.

Where did I say it is the problem that the game didn't designed him to be  a wonderkid? I am talking about the fact that at the age of 16, with current system, you know already that there is no point of giving him playing time because he will not develop. 

That is the limitation of this system, and I will never understand why people prefer fixed PA over much more flexible dynamic potential. 

Fixed PA, good things: There are no good things except it serves for not letting players to develop infinitely.

Dynamic potential, good things: Even more variety in every save game, more close to real life, late bloomers etc.

2 hours ago, CAE82 said:

Football Manager has always had dynamic potential ability, you just need to wait until next years version is released for it to change :)

And, how do you know this? :)

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Just now, Marko1989 said:

That is the limitation of this system, and I will never understand why people prefer fixed PA over much more flexible dynamic potential. 

Fixed PA, good things: There are no good things except it serves for not letting players to develop infinitely.

Dynamic potential, good things: Even more variety in every save game, more close to real life, late bloomers etc.

Ok, I'll give my reasons for why dynamic potential is not something I think is a good idea

  1. It doesn't make sense in real life. Potential is the maximum possible anyone can achieve. Either physically or through coordination. I can NEVER run as fast as Usain Bolt, no matter how much I had trained to use the ancient example.
  2. It allows for user to get yet another advantage. The user have a lot of advantages over the AI already, and there are loads of thread complaining the game is too easy. And there are always min-max'ed training schedules available for download within a short while after the game is released.
  3. How would the potential stop if there are no limits? At the end half the game would be Messi's and Ronaldo's. Too many complain about too good newgens already and this would only multiply it.
  4. What are the real benefits to make thing change compared to let it stay, financially? What would SI gain in sales? I think the benefits are negligible and the cost of implementing it would cost many times more than they would earn.

Now, that doesn't mean I think the current system is perfect, far from it. I've made several suggestions to improve it, but I also realise there are things I do not know that could be very valid reasons why it's not done. The major one being that most players get a higher PA, but also make it MUCH harder to reach, as in only for example 1% will actually reach their PA based on a lot of factors such as the hidden attributes, training vs game time at age, facilities, coaches and some randomness. A big change, but for me that would be a lot better than dynamic since it will give an absolute ceiling, but still often have room for growth. And I realise it might be a lot of drawbacks that I haven't thought of, but that's my idea, anyway.

As for late bloomers and real life, that's been better and better now that player will have more of a curve in their development based on circumstances than before. So I feel that the game are going in the right direction as it is, and I hope SI will keep tuning this to make it better,

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42 minutes ago, XaW said:

Ok, I'll give my reasons for why dynamic potential is not something I think is a good idea

  1. It doesn't make sense in real life. Potential is the maximum possible anyone can achieve. Either physically or through coordination. I can NEVER run as fast as Usain Bolt, no matter how much I had trained to use the ancient example.
  2. It allows for user to get yet another advantage. The user have a lot of advantages over the AI already, and there are loads of thread complaining the game is too easy. And there are always min-max'ed training schedules available for download within a short while after the game is released.
  3. How would the potential stop if there are no limits? At the end half the game would be Messi's and Ronaldo's. Too many complain about too good newgens already and this would only multiply it.
  4. What are the real benefits to make thing change compared to let it stay, financially? What would SI gain in sales? I think the benefits are negligible and the cost of implementing it would cost many times more than they would earn.

Now, that doesn't mean I think the current system is perfect, far from it. I've made several suggestions to improve it, but I also realise there are things I do not know that could be very valid reasons why it's not done. The major one being that most players get a higher PA, but also make it MUCH harder to reach, as in only for example 1% will actually reach their PA based on a lot of factors such as the hidden attributes, training vs game time at age, facilities, coaches and some randomness. A big change, but for me that would be a lot better than dynamic since it will give an absolute ceiling, but still often have room for growth. And I realise it might be a lot of drawbacks that I haven't thought of, but that's my idea, anyway.

As for late bloomers and real life, that's been better and better now that player will have more of a curve in their development based on circumstances than before. So I feel that the game are going in the right direction as it is, and I hope SI will keep tuning this to make it better,

Where did I say that is has to be the type of system where potential is unlimited? 

It may be because of my poor English or something but by Dynamic Potential I think - PA that can be changed during players career. 

For example. You have some 16 y old player with 14 passing, 14 technique.

And he has potential for example, 120. Even if you don't know his exact PA, you didn't check the editor; With how this system is limited, with scout reports, stars, and just knowing that game has fixed PA, at the age of 16 you already know that he will not improve. And that makes no sense in real life, not dynamic potential as you've said. 

With dynamic potential, his PA, can change over time based on his performance, quality of training, motivation, and every other aspects of game/life. So, for example, his PA can increase to 150. Or it can decrease for players who don't develop as researches thought they would. 

I never said player development should be infinite. But PA should change over the player career. Which happens in real life. Some players who didn't counted as wonderkids became great players, and on the other side, many wonderkids didn't do anything. That is impossible with current system, fixed PA has nothing with real life. 

And, for point 4.) yes, you are exactly right. SI would not gain financial benefits for making their development system better, since there is no competition and we will by the game no matter what. 

In short - fixed PA has nothing with real life, it is very limited and dynamic PA, PA that could change during players career is much more close to real life, but of course I don't expect any improvements because as I've said, FM players very rarely accept changes even if they would be for better. I never said player development should be infinite. 

Edited by Marko1989
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You said he won't develop because Pordenone don't have any wonderkids. Well, no he was never going to develop like a wonderkid, because he was an average footballer at a small club. Looks like Pordenone did decide to release him because they thought it unlikely he would get much better.

A football simulation game wouldn't have been improved by pretending otherwise.

The point of PA is that Cramraro wasn't good enough to play at a level higher than Serie C. The fact he actually wasn't is a strong indication in favour of a fixed PA limiting his ability to improve and against a 'dynamic PA' which isn't a real limit on growth at all, but a pointless number that keeps going up if he actually improves. 

As for the benefits of fixed potential

1) You get more realistic outcomes for real world players. The players in the third tier or youth teams that end up playing in the top tier are the ones noted for their real world talent, not the ones that happen to perform well in a couple of seasons of simulation. 

2) You actually get more realistic development curves than are possible in a 'dynamic PA' system, because the ceiling accounts for the reality that some players stop developing early, and a big gap between ability and potential gives some players a chance of being later bloomers without screwing up the probabilities of late career development for everyone else

3) There's an actual point to transfers for some youngsters who aren't already good. And an actual need to say goodbye to some players who seemed good. Like the brutal real world of football rather than the fantasy that if you like a player his potential must grow to match,

4) The transfer market functions more realistically, because the number of players capable of playing at the top level is limited and mostly known, and so money (and staff who are relatively accurate at predicting potential) counts. 

5) Youth development and consecutive promotions aren't even easier, which they would be if players' potential kept going up every time you did the right thing.

6) It's easier for a researcher to understand what PA actually does to a player's future career, and a player isn't accidentally turned into a wonderkid in most saves by some non-PA variable.

7) A system where x% of future stars are wrongly rated as low PA by researchers is still more accurate than one where the researchers still miss them but other players get magic semi-random boosts instead...

 

And above all, if you're not cheating by peeking at PA, you'd never notice any difference from a well-designed 'dynamic PA' system anyway because scouts and coaches are wrong and players fail to hit their potential

Edited by enigmatic
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I wrote a long reply but there is no point - Let me save everyone's time: I don't agree at all with people who say that the fixed PA is better; it is very limited and nothing will convince me it not, so I don't want to argue with people anymore here regarding this. 

Every year l will just make the post in "feature request" forum regarding dynamic PA, and hopefully some day development will be improved. 

Cheers

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6 hours ago, Marko1989 said:

For example. You have some 16 y old player with 14 passing, 14 technique.

And he has potential for example, 120. Even if you don't know his exact PA, you didn't check the editor; With how this system is limited, with scout reports, stars, and just knowing that game has fixed PA, at the age of 16 you already know that he will not improve. And that makes no sense in real life, not dynamic potential as you've said.

If you don't look at the number, you would never know that he's going to be limited. If he's good at 16, your coaches/scouts will be rating him very highly and not realise he 'only' has a 120 PA.

I'd really recommend trying the advice of not looking at the numbers under the hood.

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8 hours ago, Marko1989 said:

Where did I say that is has to be the type of system where potential is unlimited? 

It may be because of my poor English or something but by Dynamic Potential I think - PA that can be changed during players career. 

For example. You have some 16 y old player with 14 passing, 14 technique.

And he has potential for example, 120. Even if you don't know his exact PA, you didn't check the editor; With how this system is limited, with scout reports, stars, and just knowing that game has fixed PA, at the age of 16 you already know that he will not improve. And that makes no sense in real life, not dynamic potential as you've said. 

With dynamic potential, his PA, can change over time based on his performance, quality of training, motivation, and every other aspects of game/life. So, for example, his PA can increase to 150. Or it can decrease for players who don't develop as researches thought they would. 

I never said player development should be infinite. But PA should change over the player career. Which happens in real life. Some players who didn't counted as wonderkids became great players, and on the other side, many wonderkids didn't do anything. That is impossible with current system, fixed PA has nothing with real life. 

And, for point 4.) yes, you are exactly right. SI would not gain financial benefits for making their development system better, since there is no competition and we will by the game no matter what. 

In short - fixed PA has nothing with real life, it is very limited and dynamic PA, PA that could change during players career is much more close to real life, but of course I don't expect any improvements because as I've said, FM players very rarely accept changes even if they would be for better. I never said player development should be infinite. 

I'm trying to go with you down the rabbit hole here to see if there is indeed a possibility of a dynamic PA, but there are so many questions you've left unanswered.

Perhaps you didn't say that potential is unlimited, but then what is the limit other than another PA? When will it stop if it always increases if the player do well and have a good personality? This all seems to loop back into a fixed ceiling (ie PA).

And how would the game make sure that not too many players venture outside the wanted range of ability? By this I mean that the game makes sure there are X number of players within the very top level, and that X should stay about the same throughout the game. And then there is Y players at the next level, and so on. If potential is dynamic how will this be maintained? If every player that plays good is bumped up, then there will be too many good players after a number of seasons. So what the counter measure for this?

And please don't use that "FM player will not accept changes", because I really do want to improve this in any way possible. I've not bought a player for about 3 FM's now, and I've mainly played the youth challenge even longer, so I've developed (and failed to develop) a lot of young players. This concept is not foreign to me, and I really want it to be the best it can be. What I DON'T want from it is an easy way to become the best within a few years because every player (with a good personality) can become Messi with a bit of toying with training and game time. Youth development is really hard in real life, and I want it to be hard in FM as well, that's where the challenge is. So an influx of too talented players (or potential to make it happen) is not on my wanted-list.

If you seriously want this change to happen, you need to accept that others will have counter arguments and questions about your suggestions. And so far I've seen no reason to think a dynamic potential is better than the current system, especially based on the questions of this and my previous post. And if you can work out how to answer those questions, then you are at the very least closer to a working solution for the problems that a dynamic potential is bringing and your suggestions to SI will be more rooted out and much more likely to be taken into account.

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9 hours ago, XaW said:

The major one being that most players get a higher PA, but also make it MUCH harder to reach, as in only for example 1% will actually reach their PA based on a lot of factors such as the hidden attributes, training vs game time at age, facilities, coaches and some randomness. A big change, but for me that would be a lot better than dynamic since it will give an absolute ceiling, but still often have room for growth. And I realise it might be a lot of drawbacks that I haven't thought of, but that's my idea, anyway.

I've thought similar, however, just forget PA altogether and have an essential CA cap of 200. In a way, it would almost be like a dynamic PA. 

Imagine a lower-league youngster, not great attributes, but playing games and averaging say 6.8. The club has poor facilities and poor staff with few good older pro's to mentor him. He could just plod along and have a decent career, slowly developing and by the time he retires he's reached a peak CA of 120.

Now, in another game, the same player, maybe due to good tactics and management (and his underlying hidden personality attributes) starts to play well, has a good season and is signed by a bigger club. They have better staff, facilities and better pro's to mentor him with. He can then further develop and improve. In this universe he may end up retiring with a peak CA of 140.

Of course, if his big move doesn't work out (he doesn't play, gets a bad injury, plays poorly and is sold) then he will reach a lower peak CA.

I think the game is actually very similar to this already, as the vast majority of players do not reach their PA anyway, it would just stop those cases in which players hit their peaks very early and also allow the Jamie Vardy-type curve in which a lower-league player may finally sign for a top club with good staff and facilities and then 'unlock' more potential and room for growth.

As you say, the key is ensuring that it is nigh on impossible to ever reach the theoretical maximum of 200.

 

 

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13 hours ago, CAE82 said:

Football Manager has always had dynamic potential ability, you just need to wait until next years version is released for it to change :)

Hahaha loving this.

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8 hours ago, matt_2292 said:

I'd be interested to know what the OP thinks Dolan's range of dynamic PA should be? Should it plummet to 21 if he in game got a gambling addiction, say? Or went up by 30 points when he started taking steroids?

I'm sure if Dolan turned out to be a Ballon D'Or winner, the researchers who decided his stats would be more than happy to hold their hands up and say they got it wrong. Likelihood is though that their judged stats are probably quite accurate, they literally get paid a living to do it.

Would the OP bet any money on Dolan being the Ballon D'Or winner on the chance that it's not impossible for him to turn out world class? Don't think so.... If you don't look at PA and play the game the way it's designed to be played, you can look at every player the way you look at Dolan and you have your desired effect.

Do you want realism or a virtual game? Do you genuinely believe in real life that Dolan has the chance to be world class?

He doesn't need to be world class or win the Ballon D'Or to become a better player than he can become on my game, his PA in my game is 128, average to good player is pretty much his limitation, a 20 boost in PA wouldn't exactly make him world class would it.

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I think people seem to think too badly of PA. There was a discussion about growth that touched this point, but I dont really think fixed PA is a problem. Is not maybe the perfect solution but it does its job.

 

We have to remember this a game. A simulation that wants to achieve something, and fixed PA does the job and does it pretty good.

Would dynamic PA be more sophisticated? Yeah. Would it be easy to make it work better than current fixed PA? No, it would be nightmarish.

We have to think what PA achieves right now (or wants to). The idea behind it basically boils down to:

- Ensuring theres a realist spread of player quality

- Giving players a ceiling. To reflect how, realistically, everyone has a limit and no matter how good the conditions are they wont get better pass that point.

 

Now, once this is clear you think now, what advantage would dynamic PA bring to justify the effort of implementing it in a balanced way, and how you can make sure you still fulfill what fixed PA is doing now.

The first part I think is simple. The advantage would be higher variance on what ability young already existing players can reach. How much this is worth it for someone may vary greatly. With regens it would barelly matter as the randomness around their creation (weighted based on reasonable and logical reasons) already means you have complete variance.

The second point is the complex one. And it boils down to the big question: "What should make PA change?"

This, I find its a very difficult question to answer. Most people I have seen suggesting playing "well". But that seems a very dangerous approach.

First, playing well is very relative to how a player is used on the pitch, and the game already struggles at times to recognize when a player plays well or not in some situations. A player may be continously creating space for your team, and denying it to the opposition and won't get rewarded by the system because theres no stat to track.

Second, because balance would be a nightmare. If a player is already playing well and this holds a lot of weight in making him grow, then he is very likely to end player even better if he stays at the same level. So you would have a feedback loop with no balance point in which many player could easily fall and just grow too much in an unrealistic way.

Other alternatives, like the ones OP mentioned, are basically very similar if not the same that already drive CA. So if you are going to do that it would be much easier just been more lenient with higher PA's all around and making growth slower/more exigent based on those paramaters. That would give the variance needed but may still end in too high CAs if not balanced properly AND it will probably make easy for the player to play the system. He would take any youngster that its not that famous and its far easier to adquire and then, knowing what he has to do, will pump him up to the top.

 

So yeah, dynamic PA is a dream, but we have to be pragmatic too. It has no worth if SI can't get it to work well, and we have to understand that its no simple thing to achieve.

 

 

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1 hour ago, iAlwaysWin said:

He doesn't need to be world class or win the Ballon D'Or to become a better player than he can become on my game, his PA in my game is 128, average to good player is pretty much his limitation, a 20 boost in PA wouldn't exactly make him world class would it.

There are only three English right wingers with a CA higher than 148, and the weakest of those has over 30 England caps (and will probably get downgraded to less than 148 in the next update)

Maybe it isn't surprising the researcher doesn't think that a player Preston were unwilling to offer a professional contract to is likely to be that good

Edited by enigmatic
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1 minute ago, enigmatic said:

There are only three English right wingers with a CA higher than 148, and the weakest of those has over 30 England caps (and will probably get downgraded in the next update)

Maybe it isn't surprising the researcher doesn't think that a player Preston were unwilling to offer a professional contract to is likely to be that good

Only used the increase of 20 in PA ability to counter argument the fact that it wouldn't exactly make him world class would it, it would give him the potential to be a very good player granted.

Also not suggesting Dolan deserves a increase of 20 points in PA ability either, and how many English young players in general have a potential ability higher than 148 to be more specific, because CA is the current standard, we are talking about potential.

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21 minutes ago, iAlwaysWin said:

Only used the increase of 20 in PA ability to counter argument the fact that it wouldn't exactly make him world class would it, it would give him the potential to be a very good player granted.

Also not suggesting Dolan deserves a increase of 20 points in PA ability either, and how many English young players in general have a potential ability higher than 148 to be more specific, because CA is the current standard, we are talking about potential.

How many English young players have a potential ability higher than 148? Well the answer will be slightly different each time as most young players (including Dolan) have a semi-random potential. Semi-random because whilst a bit of variation is good, it's probably better that researchers don't assume the player Liverpool gave a debut to and the player Preston decided wasn't worth keeping turn out about the same on average. 

But in the game I opened up it's only six young right wingers, two of whom are already England internationals and only one who hasn't already played top flight football.

PA gets rationed for a reason: it's a bit too easy and a bit pointless having a big transfer budget and worldwide scouting setup if random teenage pace merchants are easily turned into England internationals by playing well in the Championship, as opposed to the more common real life career path of their limitations being found out at the top level. CA128 is plenty to have a good career if he actually hits it anyway 

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1 hour ago, Jervaj said:

This, I find its a very difficult question to answer. Most people I have seen suggesting playing "well". But that seems a very dangerous approach.

 

I don't understand that view from the dynamic PA advocates at all. Playing better is a function of the player's CA increasing into the space between CA and PA. That playing time, along with training will shape the direction of the improvement in terms of attribute changes.

If I have passing of 10 and game time and training improves it to 12, it doesn't expand my potential it means that I have fulfilled some of my potential.

Better performances are the output of improving CA not an input to PA.  Practice is the input to improving CA.

 

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18 minutes ago, enigmatic said:

the player Preston decided wasn't worth keeping turn out about the same on average. 

Dolan was considered Preston best young prospect, performing well in the youth setup, and Preston have went on record saying the youth prospect's who where ready for a fulltime contract are extremely unfortunate to be let go, most likely due to Covid-19 financial struggles. He's went on to sign a professional contract at a more prestigious club like Blackburn, so please don't be so disingenuous towards Dolan talent as a 18 year old kid, which at this point in his career we have no idea how good he will become other than the fact he is considered a good young prospect, who has started 16 games and scored 3 goals as a 18 year old in the championship, which is quite good going.

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1 hour ago, Jervaj said:

The second point is the complex one. And it boils down to the big question: "What should make PA change?"

 

See, for me the answer is simple.  "Nothing".  The problem is that it's the wrong question.  Whatever limitations the system may or may not have aren't down to PA being fixed, they are potentially down to the journey towards that fixed amount.   So the question should be "How can we better model CA changes?"

 

20 minutes ago, rp1966 said:

I don't understand that view from the dynamic PA advocates at all. Playing better is a function of the player's CA increasing into the space between CA and PA. That playing time, along with training will shape the direction of the improvement in terms of attribute changes.

If I have passing of 10 and game time and training improves it to 12, it doesn't expand my potential it means that I have fulfilled some of my potential.

Better performances are the output of improving CA not an input to PA.  Practice is the input to improving CA.

 

Exactly.  People get way too hung up on the ceiling and forget about everything below it.  Having a fixed number for PA is not the issue.  It never has been.  Every player should just have a different journey towards that PA.  Maybe some charge towards the value by the time they're 21 and never get beyond that.  Maybe one never improves at all.  Maybe one suddenly hits hot form at 29 and sees their CA rocket.  None of that requires PA to change at all.

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22 minutes ago, rp1966 said:

Better performances are the output of improving CA not an input to PA.  Practice is the input to improving CA.

I don’t believe you are correct there. I’ll try and find the thread I’ve seen it in, but it was from either a mod or maybe Seb Wassell. It seemed to suggest game time alone was not enough but performances mattered too. That causes the player to develop, which results in increased attributes and hence an increase in CA.

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5 minutes ago, CAE82 said:

I don’t believe you are correct there. I’ll try and find the thread I’ve seen it in, but it was from either a mod or maybe Seb Wassell. It seemed to suggest game time alone was not enough but performances mattered too. That causes the player to develop, which results in increased attributes and hence an increase in CA.

That's a practice feedback loop to my mind - game experience at a higher level improves CA more than game experience at the same or lower level. The calculation may use performance ratings as part of generating the level of CA increase, but that's just the mathematical equivalent of "The only way to get smarter is by playing a smarter opponent".  In any case it still doesn't relate to changes in PA only CA increasing towards PA.

 

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12 minutes ago, forameuss said:

 

See, for me the answer is simple.  "Nothing".  The problem is that it's the wrong question.  Whatever limitations the system may or may not have aren't down to PA being fixed, they are potentially down to the journey towards that fixed amount.   So the question should be "How can we better model CA changes?

This gets to the nub of it because CA changes in a save seem to follow the same model more often than not. There is not much variety in journies towards a players full potential

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1 minute ago, iAlwaysWin said:

Dolan was considered Preston best young prospect, performing well in the youth setup, and Preston have went on record saying the youth prospect's who where ready for a fulltime contract are extremely unfortunate to be let go, most likely due to Covid-19 financial struggles. He's went on to sign a professional contract at a more prestigious club like Blackburn, so please don't be so disingenuous towards Dolan talent as a 18 year old kid, which at this point in his career we have no idea how good he will become other than the fact he is considered a good young prospect, who has started 16 games and scored 3 goals as a 18 year old in the championship, which is quite good going.

Nowhere have I said that Dolan is a bad player or had no future in football. In fact I've repeatedly hinted that the dice roll landing on a CA of 128 allowing him a chance of Premier League football if things go well might actually be about right. Contrary to your insistence otherwise, that's more than enough to have a great future at Blackburn. Good enough for Preston too obviously, but not good enough to be a sure bet to rescue the financial future of the club.

What I have suggested is that it's extremely disingenuous on your part to assume that the verdict he probably doesn't have "all the raw abilities to become a top Premier League player" worth more than the entire Preston squad put together is some weird quirk of the researcher's judgement, as opposed to the verdict of both the academies that released him and the academies of the several bigger clubs in the area who spend vast sums of money on players they actually think might be that good

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24 minutes ago, forameuss said:

 

See, for me the answer is simple.  "Nothing".  The problem is that it's the wrong question.  Whatever limitations the system may or may not have aren't down to PA being fixed, they are potentially down to the journey towards that fixed amount.   So the question should be "How can we better model CA changes?"

Yeah, of course. I was approaching it from the point of view of "I want dynamic CA". There is a reason this was the second question. The first one was why would you want this for a reason.

24 minutes ago, forameuss said:

 

Exactly.  People get way too hung up on the ceiling and forget about everything below it.  Having a fixed number for PA is not the issue.  It never has been.  Every player should just have a different journey towards that PA.  Maybe some charge towards the value by the time they're 21 and never get beyond that.  Maybe one never improves at all.  Maybe one suddenly hits hot form at 29 and sees their CA rocket.  None of that requires PA to change at all.

And this its basically what I mentioned. Also in the other topic I dont remember now about development. I really think like you that PA is not the place to look for improvements if what we want is variety. Is how CA grows. Not that is terrible now, but yeah, it would be easier and yet more imapctful as things stand right now in given more varied results than designing a complex variable PA system.

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1 hour ago, rp1966 said:

That's a practice feedback loop to my mind - game experience at a higher level improves CA more than game experience at the same or lower level. The calculation may use performance ratings as part of generating the level of CA increase, but that's just the mathematical equivalent of "The only way to get smarter is by playing a smarter opponent".  In any case it still doesn't relate to changes in PA only CA increasing towards PA.

 

https://community.sigames.com/forums/topic/465429-i-dont-think-player-development-is-realistic/?do=findComment&comment=11705910

Playing at a level too high for the current ability can harm development.

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Dynamic PA couldn't work for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, there are a considerable number of players in the lower levels of football who have great work ethics, who have great application and certainly have the mindset or frame of mind needed to improve to a premier league quality player. The reality is that most of these players are too limited to make it when it comes to their technical capabilities. 

A dynamic system would mean the shackles would be removed from these players and once they're given access to better facilities, a higher level of competition it would mean human players could simply bring through a batch of late developers and people would build their teams for next to nothing from lower league journeymen. 

Secondly, even if you didn't want to just pick up cheap players with good mental attributes, you could instead just turn your eye to youth players. Cherry picking those who have certain attributes but are really lacking in other areas, or even just taking your own and before long we would see "Forum Poster X's Guide to 200 PA youngsters" and then it'd just become a cookie cutter game with a fixed meta of how you most successfully play the game.

- - -

Sure, SI could put some measures in place but then they would be far more unrealistic. Arbitrary caps on development, they'd have to come up with a criteria list of what actually triggers improvements in PA. They'd then have to alter the criteria depending upon the position of the player to perhaps cater for any positions in formations that skew unusually high or low in performance metrics. 

What actually counts as a good young player in FM would lose all credibility since they'd all be good young players if you just played the game right. 

My expectation is that the development system will continue to gain more nuance over time and more implementation of measures that better encompass the whole journey but these are already incredibly subtle now with a number of people who criticise the system not even being aware of these aspects. Its possible that some of those players who develop too consistently in the game need to be approached a little differently from a research perspective rather than the games development system that enables players to improve. 

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Amazing that experienced FM players confuse performance and ability so often. As the manager the performance is the only thing you have to focus on. Of course high ability will increase the chances of a good performance (but there are also hidden attributes and external circumstances that will affect performance). Great performance may indicate high current ability but says nothing about potential ability. The performance can be BECAUSE OF or DESPITE the player's ability.

To enjoy the game as much as possible you should know as little as possible about the database. You should base your decisions on in-game performance, your own and your staff's perceptions about player's current and potential ability (PCA and PPA respectively).

Just because we are updating the database before every new release with new information from the real world does not mean your save-game should collect new data from the real world every season in that save-game. Your save-game is it's own world.

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19 hours ago, Marko1989 said:

Where did I say that is has to be the type of system where potential is unlimited? 

It may be because of my poor English or something but by Dynamic Potential I think - PA that can be changed during players career. 

For example. You have some 16 y old player with 14 passing, 14 technique.

And he has potential for example, 120. Even if you don't know his exact PA, you didn't check the editor; With how this system is limited, with scout reports, stars, and just knowing that game has fixed PA, at the age of 16 you already know that he will not improve. And that makes no sense in real life, not dynamic potential as you've said. 

With dynamic potential, his PA, can change over time based on his performance, quality of training, motivation, and every other aspects of game/life. So, for example, his PA can increase to 150. Or it can decrease for players who don't develop as researches thought they would. 

I never said player development should be infinite. But PA should change over the player career. Which happens in real life. Some players who didn't counted as wonderkids became great players, and on the other side, many wonderkids didn't do anything. That is impossible with current system, fixed PA has nothing with real life. 

And, for point 4.) yes, you are exactly right. SI would not gain financial benefits for making their development system better, since there is no competition and we will by the game no matter what. 

In short - fixed PA has nothing with real life, it is very limited and dynamic PA, PA that could change during players career is much more close to real life, but of course I don't expect any improvements because as I've said, FM players very rarely accept changes even if they would be for better. I never said player development should be infinite. 

I'm not sure if this is a language issue, but it looks like you are confusing player development, PPA, and PA with PA.

PA - Is the max possible level their CA can increase to, however outside of using an editor this info isn't visible inside the game.

PPA - This is how good staff members think a player can be and is used for the Potential Star Rating in game and any references in game to Potential are to this value which can and does change.

Development - Is how a player develops (how his CA and attributes change over time).

So using your above example the staff members will set a PPA Rating based on how they think he will improve with his PA only making up a small part of the rating (for example a 19yo with CA10 and PA200 will likely get a worse PPA rating than a 16yo with CA50 PA150 as it's unlikely the first player will ever get to his PA or have anything to show he has that potential to the staff member). Assuming that players Passing and Technique don't use up nearly all his CA and he doesn't have dreadful mental/hidden attributes that player will likely get a decent PPA rating depending on where he was generated as a PA120 would be a good/leading Championship potential - So in game he'd likely get a Championship/Prem Potential Rating initially (with it being over/underestimated depending on his other attributes and CA) and will likely be one of the better players in the youth intake (unless you are playing as an elite club).

Then as he develops between 16-18 his PPA will adjust as the staff members try to gauge whether he will improve further or not, if he stagnates his PPA may drop and at 18 he gets released from a mid-table Prem side as they now think he will only be a decent Championship player, and gets picked up by a League Two side who play him where he does well and his exposure to first team football seems him kick on and develop and his attributes develop to suit his role, team gets promoted and Championship sides take another look at him because they now think he may reach his potential when previously it looked like he wouldn't.

In another game he may still have got released at 18 and been picked up by a League Two side that struggled and he didn't get a chance so didn't develop further and ended up only being a League Two rated player.

Third option he got a contract with his first team and continued to develop and developed the key attributes for his role which ensured he became a useful squad player without ever setting the world alight.

All three options are possible in game and if you didn't check an editor you'd never know if in say game two he wasted his potential or if he never had that potential to begin with.

It's also perfectly possible in game to have great non-wonderkid players or failed wonderkids, especially as the wonderkid tag in game is determined by age, reputation and CA.

 

What isn't possible in game is for every player (or certain players) to be World Beaters, which again is realistic if it was easy to become a World Class player then teams wouldn't spend millions on trying to find the next Messi, instead they'd just recruit from their local school and rely on their training facilities to turn them all into World Beaters.

Another good thing to consider with the discussion over PA is to separate real players and regens - For regens the PA system is perfectly fine as everything is controlled by the game, for real players the issue isn't PA but that the values have to be set by researchers but as they don't have a magic ball they will never get it 100% correct so you can always find the player that will break the rules.

The other thing to remember is that the game is a computer program and they run on numbers, so even if the game had a dynamic PA system at some point that dynamic number would have to be converted to a fixed number - for example most young players have their PA set in the database as a range which then gets converted into a real number within that range upon the creation of your save game.

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1 hour ago, Vänsterback said:

Just because we are updating the database before every new release with new information from the real world does not mean your save-game should collect new data from the real world every season in that save-game. Your save-game is it's own world.

Contradicting yourself there am afraid, on one hand your like just because the real world updates on a yearly basis doesn't mean our save games should, but then on the other hand your telling us our own save game is it's own world...which is it?

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8 hours ago, iAlwaysWin said:

Contradicting yourself there am afraid, on one hand your like just because the real world updates on a yearly basis doesn't mean our save games should, but then on the other hand your telling us our own save game is it's own world...which is it?

I don’t see any contradiction here? He’s saying that once you start a save that is it’s own world that develops and changes over time in its own way/path, and that you can’t retrospectively dump updated real world data into it at a later point

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I think these issues always stem from seeing the PA values under the hood. The game does a pretty good job overall at making coach reports somewhat unreliable, even with the best reporting available. 
 

As an example, here’s a screenshot from my youth development save, this was some time ago and the players in this shot are all 25+ now so I’ve no issue checking their actual PA values as it makes no difference to my game. 
 

spacer.png
 

These star ratings are for a strong Champions League level club for reference. So someone at 4 gold stars is going to be roughly 155-170CA as a rough guide, obviously not exactly but thereabouts.

Of the top 9 on that list (3 gold star potential and above), the highest PA is 158, lowest is 128. One of them is now a regular starter for me, most others have either been sold, released or similar and there’s one other squad player on here too. Mikel Simon had the highest potential, but had an awful personality and I couldn’t develop it enough sadly. 

Clearly here my very good coaches have a reasonable amount of uncertainty over player potential given the variety of star ratings comparable to actual PA. This is what makes the game exciting, you don’t know for sure who will and won’t develop. Your in game coaches not being 100% sure of a players developmental potential is absolutely key, they’re mostly on the right lines but not always right. Now put that at a lower league club and you’ll likely never know how much potential your players have for sure due to the uncertainty around the staff reports, you’ve just gotta roll with the punches.

Fixed PA gives an ultimate best level a player can reach, the challenge is getting an accurate fixed PA for real players as this will always be opinion. The researchers have to make their best judgement here. If you don’t like their rating then just use the editor to play the game how you want based on your opinion. 

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