[FM21] A journeyman with a spreadsheet

[Mikal]

And here we are again, another year another journeyman. Have no real plans for where I want to take this save club wise, so it'll be one day at a time in that regard. The main aim is using the stats and analytical information that's in the game, as well as what I can put together out of it, to make informed decisions.

I’ll be playing this save with a few basic principles throughout, though.

Playstyle

For majority of games, I will focus on a 2-3-5/3-2-5 approach in attack, i.e. I want to have 5 players in the final third when we progress and/or counter, with 5 back (split between numbers in midfield and in the defensive line).

Statistics & Analysis

I’ll be looking at making team and squad decisions based on in-game stats. I’ll be using individual player stats as part of my scouting analysis to identify targets. I'm hoping to put together some data visuals and analysis as part of this.

Game Mods

The only mod I’ll use in the game is to remove specific player attributes and replace with coloured bars which represent attribute ranges, example.

Red = 1-5

White = 6-10

Yellow = 11-15

Green = 16-20

Save started July 2020 (turned first transfer window off) and I holidayed to December 2020 to allow for some manager changes to come into effect. So, let’s introduce to the first club.

 

A first-time visit to South America. We’ll be stopping by a country known for food, wine, big city culture, tango and, of course, football. Dancing shoes at the ready.

Our first club is Chacarita Jrs in the Primera Nacional Division in Argentina.

Situated in Buenos Aires, just 30 minutes from Boca Juniors. An exciting challenge to become the dancehall kings of Buenos Aires.

A good-sized stadium and good training facilities.

A club vision we can all get behind, building around youth. Hopefully being able to delve into the analytics side of things will help us unearth some solid players.

They just want us to avoid relegation this season, and you’ll see why shortly.

As you can see, we sit 15^th in the league at just over the half-way stage of the season (30 games).

Squad Analysis

The season has stopped for the Winter break, so we have some time to review the current team and where we should focus our attention.

We are largely below average in most metrics at both ends of the pitch. We let a lot in, and don’t really put many in ourselves. Our shots on target ratio is good, however, so if we can create chances there’s the possibility we’ll do some damage.

Note: This is showing all clubs across the two groups (A & B) in the Primera Nacional

Right the way up there in the worst part of the graph. We are facing a massive 12 shots per game and bar one other side have the highest conversion rate against us.

Note: This is showing all clubs across the two groups (A & B) in the Primera Nacional

Not the worst here. We’re average with our conversion rate, but find ourselves below average with the amount of shots we’re having per game

Based off this information, we can slowly paint a picture that we have more competence and ability in the final third than we do in the defensive third.

Team Analysis

It’s time to look at the numbers the team have put forward to date and see if we can piece the puzzle of the season-so-far together.

Note: These are averages across all players within a club in the Primera Nacional Group A with minimum of 5 appearances.

Defensive

It’s clear we’re often engaged in a lot of defensive actions. We have high average tackles/90 per player as well as interceptions/90. While winning the interceptions are good, we’re committing too many fouls and not winning our fair share of tackles sitting in the 20^th percentile for tackle success. This could be a case of having good positioning to complete the interceptions, but 1-on-1 engagement can let us down.

Aerially we’re very middle ground. I will need to look into the squad specifically to see how individual performers are when it comes to winning headers.

Creativity

While we compete when it comes to ball retention, and generally move the ball about more than other teams, it seems we don’t really create all that much. Our chances created/90 and key passes/90 are low. We do, however, look to be quite useful on the flanks with the success of our crosses (I made an error with the chart, the crosses attempted/90 number should be 2.30 per 90).

Attacking

Man, those numbers are grim reading. While our conversion rate from previous analysis was good, it’s still a conversion on a low number of attempts.

The average goals scored per player is a poultry 0.10/90, generally meaning we don’t have a good spread of goal scorers, nor a high amount of actual goals scored. So far in the season we only have 3 players with more than 1 goal.

Our average xG/90 across the squad ranks low, indicating we’re simply not creating enough quality chances overall on a consistent basis, as seen above with our creativity. The majority of our total xG falls to 3 players. The average xG/90 in the league is 0.20 per 90, so while we rank low, I don’t think we’re a million miles away.

We also rank in the lower percentile for dribbles/90. We only have 1 player who performs more than 1 dribble per game on average.

Team Report

 

A quick look at our squad depth.

A few things stand out:

• A number of good CBs
• Quality in central midfield
• A lot of depth down the right-hand side
• Very weak left-hand side

Tactical Approach

At first glance, this is what I’m initially considering. The 3-2-5 in attack as noted at the start.

Defence

We have plenty of good CBs and makes sense to try and make the most of it. The only concern with those 3 starting CBs, is Godoy is primarily a midfielder, so I’ll need to keep an eye on his performances. I may move him to the left CB position, but he is our best progressor from the back.

We have no players capable of playing left wingback, so I’ve got a natural RB there at the moment as the inverted wingback, with the idea that the Mezzala can vacate from the midfield and drift wide, while the inverted wingback takes up that central position.

I’ve dropped our defensive line as our backline is pretty slow. I’ll also for now force the opposition wide, and we’ll do our best to rely on our ability to intercept balls from wide as well as see how our aerial ability is. Most of the goals we have conceded have come down our left hand side, which is no surprise. I will keep an eye on if forcing the opposition out wide is the right move.

Midfield

I’m looking for Perdomo and Sanchez to the heartbeat of the squad. I’ll have the play go through them and hopefully they can provide the support needed to the forward line. Every chance I change to focus play down the right hand side though.

Attack

It’s an aging front 3 with two 30+ year olds. But look like they should have the ability to see us through the rest of the season.

Transfer Plans

We have a transfer budget of £0 and we’re £4k OVER our wage budget. We do not have much, if any, room for signings here. A sell before we can buy type of window. Also clubs can only make two signings in this winter transfer window.

Positions to look at:

• Left back/wing back
  • We are just so strapped in this position

I think that’s all I’m going to look at, I don’t see a need to overhaul, not that we have the funds to anyway. I expect I’ll need to look at players with minimal data, particularly if we’re looking for loans, or freebies. We’ll see what magic our recruitment team can work as well.

Next update will be at the end of the transfer window (1st Feb).

Edited December 6, 2020 by Mikal

[Mikal]

Winter Transfer Window

Set out for a left back and that's what we've done. Not anyone we can keep, a couple stop-gaps, but left backs nonetheless.

Rafael Santos - on loan from Cruzeiro

Spoiler

Carlos Vargas - on loan from CF América

Spoiler

Pretty happy to bring these two in. No real data to work with when it came to loan signings and freebies cause almost all of them that were interested hadn't played all that much, so relied on our recruitment to make some decisions.

We got rid of a couple and a couple extra thousand off the wage bill.

Tactical Changes

With a now real left back I've changed our set up a bit. Godoy has moved from CB into DM; I think he'll offer us a slightly better outlet here, but we do have him dropped between as our progressor from the back. The fullbacks have both moved down from wingback to fullback spots. I've also opted for now the double playmaker in central midfield. We'll see how that goes.

Results

February 2021

Originally on taking over, I hadn't realised that those first 3 opponents were all top 4 at the time of playing them; Quilmes in 3rd, Belgrano in 1st and Estudiantes in 4th. It wasn't really a surprise to see us drop points straight away. We followed it up with a very tidy point away at Belgrano, I'd have taken that all day, but it was still two games in and no goals, and not really creating a whole lot over those two games. We then got our first win of the season in classic smash and grab tactics. Not quite the free-flowing attacking football I'm hoping for, but for now it's about getting points on the board. Santos down the left flank, crosses the ball and Evangelista tries to clear but clears it into his own net. Let's take a quick look at the goal:

higher quality video here

A nice move in all starting with some nice width created by Santos. I'd have liked a bit more adventure from the RB, and for one of the forwards to make the near post run.

The final game of the month saw us with a more dominant win and good to see we're capable of putting a few goals past an opponent.

Some good movement away from the relegation zone and now find ourselves 7 points above 16th and moving up two positions in doing so.

Performance Data

Definitely improvements across the board here, and considering the opposition we faced this hopefully bodes well for the rest of the season.

Not really any change on last post. The average on conversion has dropped while puts us slightly above on that, but still low ranking on shots per game. That Belgrano (the Group B version) in top right are scoring machines. 

While still clearly at the arse end of where we want to be, the opposition conversion rate for us has dropped from around 14.5% to 12.5%.

 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Mikal

[Mikal]

End of Season 20/21

The final 8 games of the season have been played.

League Table

When we took over we found ourselves in 15th and 4 points above relegation, and we ended the season in 15th but 12 points clear of relegation. Despite the position, I think we're at that midtable level.

A quick look at the player stats shows Giodrana clearly our player of the season. By way of team stats it feels we should have ended the season around midtable given our pretty good goals conceded record, but average goal scoring ability.

Performance Data

Pretty average I think is a fair reflection of our season. The main take away from this is the low # of shots per game against the average.

No real improvement on our attacking front. Pretty much knew what we were going to get.

An improvement on defence of the last part of the season. While the conversion rate has largely remained the same (slightly increased), we've done well to reduce the number of shots the opposition have been having.

Bit hard to gauge our xG performance given they lump both groups into one table, but below us in this table the other clubs in our group were: Gimnasia (huge difference!), Dep. Moron, Atl. Rafaela, Nueva Chicago and All Boys. All of us bar Gimnasia and Dep. Moron (relegated) finished within 2 points of each other. 

A few more interesting pieces of team data over the course of the season.

Across both groups we finished top by way of getting our shots on target. Very happy with that.

Pretty much at relegation standard for our defence over the course of the season. Much improved toward the backend, though,

As we saw in the previous update, I was interested in bringing in a player or two who could dribble, simply because we had very little individual progression with the ball at feet. Above demonstrates how poor we were in that regard.

Now a few player data pieces.

Giordana up in 6th for xG. As we can see he scored bang on his expected goals.

Ledesma putting up some great defensive numbers. Excellent tackles won ratio, and at 22 years old looks a great prospect.

Next I'll be taking a look transfers. We have quite  lot of contracts up, but initially I'll be looking for:

First Team

Goal Keeper

Centre Back

Left Back

Left Winger

Striker

Rotation

Right Back

Considering we have next to no money to spend, it'll be interesting to see what we can do.