SebastianRO 642 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 Hi guys, would somebody please explain what xG is ? I understand it provides statistics, etc, but what makes it unique compared to what we had before ? Also, I have seen that in FM21 Beta there is xG under Match Stats section, which updates real-time What is that ? Thanks in advance. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Neil Brock 5,950 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 It's touched upon a bit in this article by our Features Producer Stephen Davidson - https://www.pcgamesn.com/football-manager-2021/gestures-quick-chats-xg Link to post Share on other sites
Freakiie 448 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 xG (expected goals) is a statistical calculation of how likely it is that a shot will be a goal. So a penalty, which is a really good chance has like a 79% chance of being a goal, thus a 0.79 xG. The real time updates are nothing more than the xGs for every single chance you (or your opponent) creates added up. Basically it's a much more accurate representation of how good your chances are compared to the old Half Chance/CCC system and a way to rate your strikers, as a good Striker will score more goals than his xG would suggest, whereas a poor finisher will fluff a bunch of chances and score less goals than his xG. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
SebastianRO 642 Posted November 11, 2020 Author Share Posted November 11, 2020 13 hours ago, Neil Brock said: It's touched upon a bit in this article by our Features Producer Stephen Davidson - https://www.pcgamesn.com/football-manager-2021/gestures-quick-chats-xg 12 hours ago, Freakiie said: xG (expected goals) is a statistical calculation of how likely it is that a shot will be a goal. So a penalty, which is a really good chance has like a 79% chance of being a goal, thus a 0.79 xG. The real time updates are nothing more than the xGs for every single chance you (or your opponent) creates added up. Basically it's a much more accurate representation of how good your chances are compared to the old Half Chance/CCC system and a way to rate your strikers, as a good Striker will score more goals than his xG would suggest, whereas a poor finisher will fluff a bunch of chances and score less goals than his xG. Thanks guys. Both of you really helpful Link to post Share on other sites
XaW 5,654 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, SebastianRO said: Thanks guys. Both of you really helpful Also do note that what fans and commentators say are a "100% chance" really isn't. Even a pen is only about 75-80% (I've read different things different places). Link to post Share on other sites
Svenc 1,281 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 2 Link to post Share on other sites
andu1 359 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Basically a new trendy and fancy tool that the media uses to analyse match stats. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
joaocm 39 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Ok. But xG alone gives you very low info about your team. I think you always have to complement xG with the number of shots you make. Is this correct? If you have a xG of 3 but you make 60 shots per game is different of having xG of 3 and making only 6 shots... Link to post Share on other sites
Svenc 1,281 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, joaocm said: Ok. But xG alone gives you very low info about your team. I think you always have to complement xG with the number of shots you make. Is this correct? If you have a xG of 3 but you make 60 shots per game is different of having xG of 3 and making only 6 shots... Yees.... That naturally may mean that you have few shots, but very high quality, and vice versa.... https://www.theringer.com/soccer/2018/6/27/17511596/2018-world-cup-germany-south-korea-mexico-sweden-elimination The media may have only picked this up fairly recently, but I'd argue the general idea is anything but a trend. It's grabbing football by its.. well, balls. Obviously teams that consistently create high quality chances have better chances of winning football matches. Edited November 11, 2020 by Svenc 1 Link to post Share on other sites
zyfon5 293 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 minute ago, joaocm said: Ok. But xG alone gives you very low info about your team. I think you always have to complement xG with the number of shots you make. Is this correct? If you have a xG of 3 but you make 60 shots per game is different of having xG of 3 and making only 6 shots... yes. in fact this was one of the concerns that I raise at another post a long time ago. Players that do not have the ability to analyze games will not able to do so with xG or not. However it does help that a user can now post his xG map and let others figure it out for him instead of the 8 clear cut chances and 0 goals rant in the past. Link to post Share on other sites
Dan1297 0 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Hey, just to touch on this; how do I see individual xG for my players? I had expected it to be in the statistics tab but cannot see it. Am I being obviously blind? Link to post Share on other sites
Karnack 144 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Dan1297 said: Hey, just to touch on this; how do I see individual xG for my players? I had expected it to be in the statistics tab but cannot see it. Am I being obviously blind? I think it's missing in a couple places, including Squad view. It's included in known issues. This might also have been reported as a bug, not entirely sure! Link to post Share on other sites
Svenc 1,281 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 (edited) The community too apparently have already tried to do some explaining. https://footballmanagertips.com/what-is-xg-on-football-manager-2021-how-to-use-xg-on-fm21/ Somebody was even trying to apply it all to FM 19 already. https://dictatethegame.com/getting-expected-goals-or-xg-into-fm19/ Edited November 16, 2020 by Svenc Link to post Share on other sites
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