Please explain xG

[SebastianRO 629]

Hi guys, would somebody please explain what xG is ? I understand it provides statistics, etc, but what makes it unique compared to what we had before ? Also, I have seen that in FM21 Beta there is xG under Match Stats section, which updates real-time What is that ? Thanks in advance.

[Neil Brock 5,714]

It's touched upon a bit in this article by our Features Producer Stephen Davidson - https://www.pcgamesn.com/football-manager-2021/gestures-quick-chats-xg

[Freakiie 383]

xG (expected goals) is a statistical calculation of how likely it is that a shot will be a goal. So a penalty, which is a really good chance has like a 79% chance of being a goal, thus a 0.79 xG.

The real time updates are nothing more than the xGs for every single chance you (or your opponent) creates added up.

Basically it's a much more accurate representation of how good your chances are compared to the old Half Chance/CCC system and a way to rate your strikers, as a good Striker will score more goals than his xG would suggest, whereas a poor finisher will fluff a bunch of chances and score less goals than his xG.

[SebastianRO 629]

13 hours ago, Neil Brock said:

It's touched upon a bit in this article by our Features Producer Stephen Davidson - https://www.pcgamesn.com/football-manager-2021/gestures-quick-chats-xg

 

12 hours ago, Freakiie said:

xG (expected goals) is a statistical calculation of how likely it is that a shot will be a goal. So a penalty, which is a really good chance has like a 79% chance of being a goal, thus a 0.79 xG.

The real time updates are nothing more than the xGs for every single chance you (or your opponent) creates added up.

Basically it's a much more accurate representation of how good your chances are compared to the old Half Chance/CCC system and a way to rate your strikers, as a good Striker will score more goals than his xG would suggest, whereas a poor finisher will fluff a bunch of chances and score less goals than his xG.

Thanks guys. Both of you really helpful

[XaW 4,496]

12 minutes ago, SebastianRO said:

Thanks guys. Both of you really helpful

Also do note that what fans and commentators say are a "100% chance" really isn't. Even a pen is only about 75-80% (I've read different things different places).

[Svenc 1,229]

 

 

[andu1 332]

Basically a new trendy and fancy tool that the media uses to analyse match stats.

[joaocm 39]

Ok. But xG alone gives you very low info about your team. I think you always have to complement xG with the number of shots you make. Is this correct? If you have a xG of 3 but you make 60 shots per game is different of having xG of 3 and making only 6 shots... 

[Svenc 1,229]

4 minutes ago, joaocm said:

Ok. But xG alone gives you very low info about your team. I think you always have to complement xG with the number of shots you make. Is this correct? If you have a xG of 3 but you make 60 shots per game is different of having xG of 3 and making only 6 shots... 

Yees.... That naturally may mean that you have few shots, but very high quality, and vice versa....  

https://www.theringer.com/soccer/2018/6/27/17511596/2018-world-cup-germany-south-korea-mexico-sweden-elimination

The media may have only picked this up fairly recently, but I'd argue the general idea is anything but a trend. It's grabbing football by its.. well, balls. Obviously teams that consistently create high quality chances have better chances of winning football matches.

Edited November 11, 2020 by Svenc

[zyfon5 244]

1 minute ago, joaocm said:

Ok. But xG alone gives you very low info about your team. I think you always have to complement xG with the number of shots you make. Is this correct? If you have a xG of 3 but you make 60 shots per game is different of having xG of 3 and making only 6 shots... 

yes. in fact this was one of the concerns that I raise at another post a long time ago. Players that do not have the ability to analyze games will not able to do so with xG or not. However it does help that a user can now post his xG map and let others figure it out for him instead of the 8 clear cut chances and 0 goals rant in the past.

[Dan1297 0]

Hey, just to touch on this; how do I see individual xG for my players? I had expected it to be in the statistics tab but cannot see it. Am I being obviously  blind? 

[Karnack 143]

11 minutes ago, Dan1297 said:

Hey, just to touch on this; how do I see individual xG for my players? I had expected it to be in the statistics tab but cannot see it. Am I being obviously  blind? 

I think it's missing in a couple places, including Squad view. It's included in known issues. This might also have been reported as a bug, not entirely sure!

[Svenc 1,229]

The community too apparently have already tried to do some explaining. 

https://footballmanagertips.com/what-is-xg-on-football-manager-2021-how-to-use-xg-on-fm21/

 

Somebody was even trying to apply it all to FM 19 already.  
https://dictatethegame.com/getting-expected-goals-or-xg-into-fm19/

Edited November 16, 2020 by Svenc