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Sudden total collapse in form


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Hi guys, wondering if you could help me with a total sudden collapse in form from my team in FM19. I'm managing Bray Wanderers who were in the beginning considered relegation candidates in my league. I'm in my 4th season now. We barely survived relegation in the 1st season but in the last 2 seasons we've achieved 3rd (57 points from 36 games) with a domestic cup win and 2nd place (69 pts) which I feel was deserved based on how we performed (despite media predictions putting us near the bottom of the table). We even won a few EL qualifying matches. Things were looking good, squad was happy, the squad was improving and it was a very enjoyable save. My players are not world beaters (for our division), but it's a hard working and determined squad who have played pretty well over the last 2 seasons.

The 4th season started well and we were 1st in the league after 9 games. However, a home defeat to St. Patrick's Athletic and another defeat to them in the cup through penalties in the next game has caused a total collapse in form. We have only won once and drawn once in the last 10 games since then. Now team morale is abysmal and they have met with me to say they're unhappy with my dressing room management.

Our results this season

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Primary tactic for my 2 successful seasons, which I used about 90% of the time

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This is my first FM game and I have about 300 hours in it from 3 saves. I have a fairly good idea about tactics but still a bit unsure how to apply them in game effectively. I created this tactic based on the abilities of my players and I have spent some time analysing matches and stats to tweak the tactic. Once I came up with this I found enough success with it to not change it too much for 2 seasons. However, this collapse in form has brought me back to the drawing board. I've made a few alterations but none have been much good so far. We have the 2nd best avg. possession (54%), passes completed and pass completion ratio (77%) but have the worst tackle success rate (85%) and 8th worst headers won (57%) in the division, if that helps for tactical analysis.

Here is the analysis from our last 5 games:

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I'm struggling to understand why this has happened. I have a few concerned players but they're only young players who wanted to go out on loan and I have generally kept them satisfied. I had a solid defence last season where we conceded only 26 goals in 36 matches with 15 CS (2nd best in the league). However, this season that same defence has become significantly worse, making many more mistakes and just defending poorly in general. My team has sometimes struggled to score goals but I made up for that through our solid defence and I acquired a new winger and CM for the new season who I felt could help with a bit of creativity. It's possible we may have overachieved a bit and we're now returning to the mean, but I don't think our change in fortunes should have been this sudden and extreme.

What makes it worse is that we've had a bad run of luck lately. A lot of shots hitting the post/crossbar, AI scoring worldy long shots and FKs, own goals, you name it. But that doesn't take away from the fact we most likely would not have won those matches anyway.

I'm finding it hard to turn it around. Our fixtures are quite congested and against tough opposition.  I'm trying to keep morale up by holding team meetings, praising players etc. but that can only go so far.

If any of you could give me some tips on my tactics and how to recover from this bad run of form, it would be much appreciated, thanks.

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I will suggest try to fix your tactics first. What I suspect is your tactics work previously because teams were willing to concede space behind. Now they see you more of a threat and have played more defensively up until a point that your attack is no longer effective. The ball progression is also likely to be slow with two playmakers and with a bottom heavy formation which means that you will struggle with breaking down low blocks. And with such an aggressive defensive set up, once the attack stalls, the defensive weakness will get exposed by opposition counters. 

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6 hours ago, zyfon5 said:

I will suggest try to fix your tactics first. What I suspect is your tactics work previously because teams were willing to concede space behind. Now they see you more of a threat and have played more defensively up until a point that your attack is no longer effective. The ball progression is also likely to be slow with two playmakers and with a bottom heavy formation which means that you will struggle with breaking down low blocks. And with such an aggressive defensive set up, once the attack stalls, the defensive weakness will get exposed by opposition counters. 

Yeah I've heard this is a case and from watching the matches I've definitely seen a common theme of my team struggling to break down a low block following by a quick break from the opposition leading to a goal. It is something I've seen much more frequently this season.

4 hours ago, Analog said:

I feel like you need more threat from midfield, but that depends on the PPM's for your midfielders.  AP(S) can be very attacking with dribbling PPM's, or arrives late in box, etc., but iirc AP(S) has "hold position" locked in.  So you have a passive DLP, a passive AP(S), and a passive DM behind them.  If you want to play that way then I might suggest seeing if you can get more threat from one of your wingbacks.

But it also looks like your problems might be defensive, based on the average ratings.  Right side in particular seems to be problematic.  Then look at your bench, another RB with low ratings.  It might also be due to overlaps.  I'd look at the stats and see where your goals are conceded from and by what type of play (pass, cross, etc.)

RB - 6.56

DCR - 6.61

bench RB - 6.69

bench LB? (using Kehoe as LB?) - also 6.63

It's likely not simply down to them not being good enough, you're probably asking too much of that position since it seems problematic on the wings.

Yeah the midfield roles is something I need to adjust it seems, as I can't rely on my wingbacks to be able to fulfil both offensive and defensive duties competently. I'll delve into the stats and have a look for problem areas.

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5 minutes ago, Analog said:

WB's tend to get their fair share of yellows as it is, but I'd look at fouls.  High numbers of fouls and cards there usually means they're getting caught out.  I rarely play with two attacking types of fullbacks unless it's system dependent (4-2-2-2, etc.).  You can try to just use one on attack for more balance.  Here's how I'm playing atm.  I kind of have to play with the defensive left side because I have youngsters coming through there, but honestly I still wouldn't really change the system.  Not only am I more solid defensively, when you play IWB(D) alongside a CM(D) you get a very nice double pivot in midfield.  Also, if you decide to balance the system like that you can also start to recruit attacking FB's for one side and more solid defensive ones for the other side.

 

tac.png

How do you fare without a DM as a screen for your defence? I'd prefer to go without one but I feel like my defence would be too exposed without that screen to protect them. My defence oriented CMs are below average defensively (8-10 in tackling, marking, positioning) so I'm afraid they wouldn't be able to provide enough defensive cover.

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Collapses in form - sudden or not so sudden - can happen for a variety of reasons, so it's hard to speculate. Therefore, I can only comment on your tactic and its (potential) weaknesses.

Let's start with the defensive side:

- with a combo of standard D-line and higher LOE, your level of compactness is less than optimal (the opposite combination would be far more sensible)

- which is then compounded by an aggressive manner of defending (more urgent pressing, get stuck in and counter-press)

- and with both wide midfielders on attack duty and in inherently attack-minded roles (IW and W) - plus the overlap TI on both flanks, which increases both fullbacks' individual mentalities - your flanks are potentially too vulnerable even without the aforementioned aggressive defensive TIs (let alone when they are included)

All this means that your players need to cover considerably more ground when defending in order to execute your demanding defensive instructions, which is extremely difficult if they are not top-class in terms of stamina, work rate, teamwork, acceleration, anticipation, bravery, tackling, positioning, determination and so on... 

Attacking-wise, you have both contradiction and overkill in your instructions.

A clear example of contradiction - focus play through the middle, but then telling the keeper to distribute to flanks and using extremely wide width ??? Tactical inconsistency is never a good idea. 

An example of overkill - focusing play through the middle when you already have 2 playmakers in that very middle. And 2 playmakers so close too each other are a tactical overkill per se. 

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13 hours ago, Experienced Defender said:

Collapses in form - sudden or not so sudden - can happen for a variety of reasons, so it's hard to speculate. Therefore, I can only comment on your tactic and its (potential) weaknesses.

Let's start with the defensive side:

- with a combo of standard D-line and higher LOE, your level of compactness is less than optimal (the opposite combination would be far more sensible)

- which is then compounded by an aggressive manner of defending (more urgent pressing, get stuck in and counter-press)

- and with both wide midfielders on attack duty and in inherently attack-minded roles (IW and W) - plus the overlap TI on both flanks, which increases both fullbacks' individual mentalities - your flanks are potentially too vulnerable even without the aforementioned aggressive defensive TIs (let alone when they are included)

All this means that your players need to cover considerably more ground when defending in order to execute your demanding defensive instructions, which is extremely difficult if they are not top-class in terms of stamina, work rate, teamwork, acceleration, anticipation, bravery, tackling, positioning, determination and so on... 

Attacking-wise, you have both contradiction and overkill in your instructions.

A clear example of contradiction - focus play through the middle, but then telling the keeper to distribute to flanks and using extremely wide width ??? Tactical inconsistency is never a good idea. 

An example of overkill - focusing play through the middle when you already have 2 playmakers in that very middle. And 2 playmakers so close too each other are a tactical overkill per se. 

Thanks for this, some good points to take on board. And yes my players are most definitely not world class :lol:. They mostly are 10-12 in their primary attributes for the role. Another user mentioned that another reason for the collapse is that the opposition underestimated my team have since adjusted mentality to counter it. I think this is the case but could the rest of the league really underestimate my team for over 2 seasons?

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