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COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic


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2 minutes ago, Sons FC said:

Can you share the Lancet article IP? - I can't find it - unless you are referring to the correspondence from John Robertson, which I have seen and which contains numerous errors.

Feel free to address the errors if you like. 

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2 minutes ago, InigoPatinkin said:

Feel free to address the errors if you like. 

That would take too long and its not for a forum like this.

If you want to look at it in more depth, send me a DM.

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15 minutes ago, Paul Bacon said:

Tell that to the media (and general public going on what ive seen on social media). They all seem to be reporting and thinking those no earlier than dates are actual dates for opening. Like when my sister got loads of calls after the announcment for bookings on the 12th April for their hair styled.

Should just say no earlier than June and have done with it, be less specific but still giving people a date to work towards

But that's on them rather than him. Sorry, but it was literally plastered all over the slides. If people can't be bothered to read the minimum available information that's on them.

People clamouring for information and then ignoring it is peak British stupidity

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Just now, Sons FC said:

That would take too long and its not for a forum like this.

If you want to look at it in more depth, send me a DM.

Happy to address it in DM's, I had a look through the data referenced for the NAb titres and it looked as described but if you saw some errors there's probably a decent Lancet correspondence publication in it for you. 

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8 minutes ago, themadsheep2001 said:

But that's on them rather than him. Sorry, but it was literally plastered all over the slides. If people can't be bothered to read the minimum available information that's on them.

People clamouring for information and then ignoring it is peak British stupidity

Not disagreeing with you, but we know people like to read what they want to read :D Media dont help mind

You can guarantee if we dont open up on the dates Boris will get it in the neck, so dont open yourself up for it.

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3 minutes ago, InigoPatinkin said:

Happy to address it in DM's, I had a look through the data referenced for the NAb titres and it looked as described but if you saw some errors there's probably a decent Lancet correspondence publication in it for you. 

Exactly - it all depends what clinical weight you want to allocate to the correspondence section, which tends more towards opinion.

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Had the text today to book my vaccine, must be because I have asthma.

Could have booked in for tomorrow but I have online meetings all day, so having it done Friday morning :thup:.

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1 minute ago, Sons FC said:

Exactly - it all depends what clinical weight you want to allocate to the correspondence section, which tends more towards opinion.

I'm not really sure what you mean, I just looked at the actual clinical data that was cited in the correspondence to see if it said what Robertson said it did. As far as I'm aware it does. 

Happy to discuss the errors you found over DM if you would still like to though! I have 3 more hours of work and very little to do today :D I was half tempted to do some stats on the school data on the other page but it was too much effort to get the raw data.  

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28 minutes ago, InigoPatinkin said:

I'm not really sure what you mean, I just looked at the actual clinical data that was cited in the correspondence to see if it said what Robertson said it did. As far as I'm aware it does. 

Happy to discuss the errors you found over DM if you would still like to though! I have 3 more hours of work and very little to do today :D I was half tempted to do some stats on the school data on the other page but it was too much effort to get the raw data.  

Thanks IP - I am happy to go through it as well if we think there is merit in doing so - he has been very selective on some of the points he has made, there are errors in there and he has either deliberately (I wouldn't have thought so) or inadvertently ignored a great deal of other evidence, some contradictory to the evidence he quotes.

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3 minutes ago, Sons FC said:

Thanks IP - I am happy to go through it as well if we think there is merit in doing so - he has been very selective on some of the points he has made, there are errors in there and he has either deliberately (I wouldn't have thought so) or inadvertently ignored a great deal of other evidence, some contradictory to the evidence he quotes.

Like I said, feel free to drop me a DM about it. I'm interested. 

If there's anything of merit in it I might even email him about it :D

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3 hours ago, Sons FC said:

Where did you see this Reggi?

According to the WHO criteria for virus eradication, it is not technically feasible. To eradicate a virus we would need an effective intervention - the vaccines provide that. Secondly, outbreaks and cases need to be identified with sufficient timeliness and accuracy to know immediately where the intervention is necessary - this cannot happen with COVID latency, asymptomatic cases and its resemblance to other respiratory illnesses and finally, infections cannot restart from animals or the environment - in other words, COVID is not present in the animal or environment reservoir, when it is clearly in both.

The only virus ever eradicated is smallpox. We have failed to eradicate any other virus. Given the uncertainty over COVID mutations, it will be suppressed through regular, seasonal vaccines, like the flu programme.

Well even without the vaccine there are various countries that have managed to eradicate the virus, so it clearly is possible to do it. Whether it is worth the neccessary costs is another question.

There are also plenty of viruses with much higher R numbers like measles that we haven't eradicated but have managed to get case numbers down to negligible numbers.

Maybe we can't completely eradicate it, I can see your point regarding it being able to be reintroduced from animals, but I'm struggling to see why we need to accept it being like flu and accept thousands of deaths every year when the vaccine seems to be a lot more effective than the flu vaccine.

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8 minutes ago, Reggiana said:

Well even without the vaccine there are various countries that have managed to eradicate the virus, so it clearly is possible to do it. Whether it is worth the neccessary costs is another question.

There are also plenty of viruses with much higher R numbers like measles that we haven't eradicated but have managed to get case numbers down to negligible numbers.

Maybe we can't completely eradicate it, I can see your point regarding it being able to be reintroduced from animals, but I'm struggling to see why we need to accept it being like flu and accept thousands of deaths every year when the vaccine seems to be a lot more effective than the flu vaccine.

Those countries hit it hard and early when levels were low, in all likelihood they're still going to have to live with it in the same way we are because so many countries couldn't or wouldn't do the same. What they did was negate the massive loss of life prior to what those levels look like when we reach some kind of equilibrium with the vaccine. If all countries had been able to do it then we might have been in a position to adopt this approach, but it isn't feasible. 

We may one day totally eradicate covid, depending on how effective and economically viable vaccine development continues to be. The sad truth is that it likely won't be seen (and I'm not saying this is even a bad thing, it's a difficult decision ethically) to be worth it to totally eradicate it if we can get it down to flu like levels of deaths.  

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One thing I do hope we keep up with is wearing masks in shops and other similar public spaces, it's such a simple thing and it will make a meaningful dent in not just covid related deaths but also flu and other respiratory illnesses. 

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I have massive sympathy for teaching staff and I absolutely think they should be next in line for vaccines if schools are to open. But I do still think schools should open.

This is a pandemic and a tragedy and there isn't a perfect solution / answer. There are always going to be some people taking the brunt.

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Level 4 in Scotland until end of April. 

Feeling a bit underwhelmed at that decision, as someone who has struggled with mental health for the past 12 months hearing that news today has mad me feel sad. 

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4 minutes ago, Reggiana said:

Well even without the vaccine there are various countries that have managed to eradicate the virus, so it clearly is possible to do it. Whether it is worth the neccessary costs is another question.

There are also plenty of viruses with much higher R numbers like measles that we haven't eradicated but have managed to get case numbers down to negligible numbers.

Maybe we can't completely eradicate it, I can see your point regarding it being able to be reintroduced from animals, but I'm struggling to see why we need to accept it being like flu and accept thousands of deaths every year when the vaccine seems to be a lot more effective than the flu vaccine.

Thanks Reggi.

There is a big difference between being COVID free within certain countries and eradication - we can't equate the two.

Management and suppression of the virus is another matter and although it is increasingly likely that it will be manageable seasonally, it is not possible to talk of "thousands of deaths each year" just now.

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Just now, StevehFC said:

Level 4 in Scotland until end of April. 

Feeling a bit underwhelmed at that decision, as someone who has struggled with mental health for the past 12 months hearing that news today has mad me feel sad. 

Looks like you're doing things a couple of weeks slower than we are. Things will get better so hang in there !

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6 minutes ago, InigoPatinkin said:

Those countries hit it hard and early when levels were low, in all likelihood they're still going to have to live with it in the same way we are because so many countries couldn't or wouldn't do the same. What they did was negate the massive loss of life prior to what those levels look like when we reach some kind of equilibrium with the vaccine. If all countries had been able to do it then we might have been in a position to adopt this approach, but it isn't feasible. 

We may one day totally eradicate covid, depending on how effective and economically viable vaccine development continues to be. The sad truth is that it likely won't be seen (and I'm not saying this is even a bad thing, it's a difficult decision ethically) to be worth it to totally eradicate it if we can get it down to flu like levels of deaths.  

You and Sons are probably right, you seem to better versed on the subject than I do.

@Sons FC So is the talk of living with it like flu and accepting thousands of deaths a year a bit of a case of jumping the gun? In that from a scientific point of view really there's not yet enough accurate data to be sure of exactly how controllable the virus will be once everyone has been offered the vaccine?

On that last point I think I've said before that part of the problem with the news (except possibly C4) is that you get a lot of the coverage and information being given out by people with absolutely no background in science, which means they jump on things that Whitty/Vallance/Van Tam say as definite when they are often talking about possibilities.

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11 minutes ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

Looks like you're doing things a couple of weeks slower than we are. Things will get better so hang in there !

The only thing keeping me focused at the moment is this will be all over one day. 

At least the new winter update for FM21 is out so have plenty time to play that. :D

Edited by StevehFC
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PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: My wife had a phone call from the GP about a non-Covid health issue, and we found out that our practice isn’t organising vaccine appointments.  Consequently, we’d have to wait for a letter or the online booking system to update.  However, on the off chance I suggested she call 119 as she is in group 6 (moderately vulnerable). And she’s booked in for a week’s time!

So if you haven’t heard anything yet but are in one of the at risk groups (I’m presuming no one in here is 60+), ring 119.  I suspect they always have gaps where people who’ve been invited have been tardy or don’t want it, and they’ll quickly book you in.

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@Reggiana Depends on the effectiveness of the vaccines, and not just their raw effectiveness, but the longevity of their effectiveness, how good we are at "boosting" the population when we need to and how quickly we address mutations and how deadly those mutations are. Part of the reason flu deaths vary so wildly is that the yearly flu shots have to "guess" which strains of flu are going to be important to vaccinate against that year. Getting it wrong can increase the death count considerably. 

It could literally be anywhere between low hundreds to 5 figures depending on all of the above and weather etc. and largely out of our control. The main focus now is getting the population effectively vaccinated and into something resembling normality without a massive spike in cases. How well we do that will see how quickly we can understand what "life with covid" is going to look like. 

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22 minutes ago, StevehFC said:

Level 4 in Scotland until end of April. 

Feeling a bit underwhelmed at that decision, as someone who has struggled with mental health for the past 12 months hearing that news today has mad me feel sad. 

I know that feeling, buddy. I was slightly optimistic too that perhaps Scotland would begin easing things a bit sooner than England are able to but it looks like Sturgeon has gone the other way and pushed things back a bit more. The thing that is getting me through is the knowledge that this is the final push and final "proper" lockdown we're (hopefully) ever going to have to endure again. 

We're still just a matter of weeks away from freedom in what has been a year-long battle with this virus. The light is still there at the end of the tunnel.

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1 hour ago, InigoPatinkin said:

Like I said, feel free to drop me a DM about it. I'm interested. 

If there's anything of merit in it I might even email him about it :D

IP - you're right - I have read it properly and he is only referring to the Pfizer vaccine, rather than the AZ as well. He is right about the uncertainty but there is more evidence on the delays between doses with the Moderna vaccine, which was developed on the same RNA platform.

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10 minutes ago, Dave Vessey said:

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: My wife had a phone call from the GP about a non-Covid health issue, and we found out that our practice isn’t organising vaccine appointments.  Consequently, we’d have to wait for a letter or the online booking system to update.  However, on the off chance I suggested she call 119 as she is in group 6 (moderately vulnerable). And she’s booked in for a week’s time!

So if you haven’t heard anything yet but are in one of the at risk groups (I’m presuming no one in here is 60+), ring 119.  I suspect they always have gaps where people who’ve been invited have been tardy or don’t want it, and they’ll quickly book you in.

Yea my Mum couldnt get booked in using the link the GP sent as no vaccine available. Rang 119 and got in next day at another centre

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11 minutes ago, Dave Vessey said:

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: My wife had a phone call from the GP about a non-Covid health issue, and we found out that our practice isn’t organising vaccine appointments.  Consequently, we’d have to wait for a letter or the online booking system to update.  However, on the off chance I suggested she call 119 as she is in group 6 (moderately vulnerable). And she’s booked in for a week’s time!

So if you haven’t heard anything yet but are in one of the at risk groups (I’m presuming no one in here is 60+), ring 119.  I suspect they always have gaps where people who’ve been invited have been tardy or don’t want it, and they’ll quickly book you in.

Also, if you're over 60 it looks like you can book in, possibly depending on postcode, even though the text says 64 or over. I just tried to get through under my dad's details and I could book a jab for him.

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My Mother and Father have had the vaccine over the last few days  (my Dad got the call on Friday Afternoon & had it Saturday), My Mom's a health worker and had it yesterday, both had headaches as a minor side effect. But they were impressed with how professional it all was. Vaccine take up is excellent and the excellent news from protection etc should IMO encourage people who were a bit worried about the speed of the vaccines etc to take it up, The worrying thing in Birmingham currently is the more inner-city areas where the take up is lower then it should (Think Lewis Goodall highlighted this last week)

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25 minutes ago, Reggiana said:

You and Sons are probably right, you seem to better versed on the subject than I do.

@Sons FC So is the talk of living with it like flu and accepting thousands of deaths a year a bit of a case of jumping the gun? In that from a scientific point of view really there's not yet enough accurate data to be sure of exactly how controllable the virus will be once everyone has been offered the vaccine?

On that last point I think I've said before that part of the problem with the news (except possibly C4) is that you get a lot of the coverage and information being given out by people with absolutely no background in science, which means they jump on things that Whitty/Vallance/Van Tam say as definite when they are often talking about possibilities.

The flu analogy is not that great because as Inigo says, the strains are predicted on guesswork by the WHO, in February, for our flu season from October onwards. We don't know for certain yet but it is looking increasingly likely that vaccine variation to take into account emerging strains may be quicker with COVID - it depends on the time taken for testing and licensing.

We also have no idea what the potential annual death rate will look like but with effective vaccines it shouldn't ever get this high again.

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Just now, Sons FC said:

IP - you're right - I have read it properly and he is only referring to the Pfizer vaccine, rather than the AZ as well. He is right about the uncertainty but there is more evidence on the delays between doses with the Moderna vaccine, which was developed on the same RNA platform.

Yeah the AZone is not mRNA based and we have loads of evidence (admittedly not in covid, but in a whole host of other stuff) that the protection from the initial dose of vector based vaccines lasts a long time and actually results in a stronger immune response for the second dose. mRNA vaccines generally give a relatively high spike of protection which falls off and needs to be boosted. There's probably quite a strong argument for prioritising the 2nd shots of the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine over second shots of the AZ ones because of this, especially if the age profile of the Pfizer recipients is older than that of AZ (which I am not sure of, but I'm sure I read somewhere). 

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11 minutes ago, Gizmo7 said:

I know that feeling, buddy. I was slightly optimistic too that perhaps Scotland would begin easing things a bit sooner than England are able to but it looks like Sturgeon has gone the other way and pushed things back a bit more. The thing that is getting me through is the knowledge that this is the final push and final "proper" lockdown we're (hopefully) ever going to have to endure again. 

We're still just a matter of weeks away from freedom in what has been a year-long battle with this virus. The light is still there at the end of the tunnel.

On a bit more of a positive note, meeting outdoors with at least 2 households is planned to be back on the cards from March 15. So a chance to at least meet some folk outside their house is something to focus and look forward to.

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1 minute ago, InigoPatinkin said:

Yeah the AZone is not mRNA based and we have loads of evidence (admittedly not in covid, but in a whole host of other stuff) that the protection from the initial dose of vector based vaccines lasts a long time and actually results in a stronger immune response for the second dose. mRNA vaccines generally give a relatively high spike of protection which falls off and needs to be boosted. There's probably quite a strong argument for prioritising the 2nd shots of the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine over second shots of the AZ ones because of this, especially if the age profile of the Pfizer recipients is older than that of AZ (which I am not sure of, but I'm sure I read somewhere). 

Totally agree.

AZ caught up with the older age groups in the latter part of the trial (I think the Brazilian arm), so the data are coming in later. This is partly countered by the immune response rates after the first dose, which showed an identical immune response in all age groups, which increases confidence that it will work as effectively across all ages.

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5 minutes ago, InigoPatinkin said:

Yeah the AZone is not mRNA based and we have loads of evidence (admittedly not in covid, but in a whole host of other stuff) that the protection from the initial dose of vector based vaccines lasts a long time and actually results in a stronger immune response for the second dose. mRNA vaccines generally give a relatively high spike of protection which falls off and needs to be boosted. There's probably quite a strong argument for prioritising the 2nd shots of the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine over second shots of the AZ ones because of this, especially if the age profile of the Pfizer recipients is older than that of AZ (which I am not sure of, but I'm sure I read somewhere). 

The vast majority of the early vaccines were Pfizer, so I'm pretty sure the age profile for those must be older.

I think they published data on numbers for the two vaccines after about 10/11 million doses and there had only been a couple of million AZ and 8/9 million Pfizer.

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3 minutes ago, Reggiana said:

The vast majority of the early vaccines were Pfizer, so I'm pretty sure the age profile for those must be older.

I think they published data on numbers for the two vaccines after about 10/11 million doses and there had only been a couple of million AZ and 8/9 million Pfizer.

 

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548 deaths reported today - down from 799 last Tuesday

8,489 cases down from 10,625 last Tuesday

 

Good progress after a minor hiccup yesterday

Lowest new case figure since 2nd October

Edited by Mr Adam
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372 English hospital deaths reported on Tuesday 23rd February (compared with 474 last Tuesday). 280 within the five days 18th to 22nd February. 54 aged 6 to 28 days. 38 aged >28 days (35 in January, 3 in December)

Seven day rolling average at 17th February is currently 333.4 (Last 5 7dra 396.3, 378.6, 361.7, 348.3, 333.4).

The Highest 7dra of the 2nd wave is now 822.4 on 22nd January (exceeding that of the first wave - 784.7); the highest single day remains 19th January but is now 856

Regionally, 7dra for 17th February (comparison with 16th February): Mids 77 (-3), NW 56.7 (-2.2), NE&Y 51.1 (-1.6), London 43.9 (-3.5), East 43.7 (-0.3), SE 42.7 (-1.3), SW 18.3 (+0.2).

Spoiler

 

Last day above a number of deaths:
800: 21/Jan
700: 25/Jan
600: 29/Jan
500: 3/Feb
400: 10/Feb (could change)
300: 16/Feb (likely to change)

Daily peaks in the second wave:

  • NE&Yorks 104 (19/Jan) +1
  • Mids 165 (24/Jan)
  • NW 105 (22/Jan) 
  • SE 169 (12/Jan)
  • London 182 (18/Jan)
  • SW 62 (20/Jan)
  • East 147 (20/Jan)

Top of the list for deaths in the last five days are (limit changed to >=15)

  • Birmingham (30/2467 +15)
  • Nottingham (26/1063 +6)
  • London North West (19/1158 +5)
  • Sandwell & West Birmingham (19/1083 +3)
  • Pennine (18/1505 +5)
  • Mid and South Essex (16/2241 +14)
  • Walsall (16/686 +6)
  • Liverpool (16/1406 nc)
  • Portsmouth (16/850 +4)
  • East Suffolk & North Essex (15/1157 +5)
  • North Midlands (15/1323 +9)

These figures didn't make sense yesterday - because I calculated them wrong :rolleyes:


Twenty trusts between 10 and 14 deaths
Fourty-one trusts between 5 and 9 deaths

123 (+13) of 221 trusts have had deaths in the last five days

 

 

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Huge load off my chest, as both mom and dad got their first doses. Dad got Chinese one, week or so ago, Sinopharm (only one available here at the time), mom just got AZ one. Considering you guys are using it, what can you tell me about it, efficiency, et cetera? What are recommended time frames for second dose? Dad is going for it in three weeks, mom is waiting till middle of May.

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1 hour ago, Mr Adam said:

I have massive sympathy for teaching staff and I absolutely think they should be next in line for vaccines if schools are to open. But I do still think schools should open.

This is a pandemic and a tragedy and there isn't a perfect solution / answer. There are always going to be some people taking the brunt.

Exactly this, I appreciate teachers are on the front line so would support vaccination to aid them. Schools have to reopen though - if they don't nothing does (and nothing should). Schools first, everything else 2nd. If they need vaccinations fine, PPE fine, do what it takes. This should have been sorted months ago, what are the Unions actually playing at?

My wife is weirdly eligible for a vaccination now due to being a carer for my daughter  (autism spectrum).  After home-schooling for 6 of the last 10 school months she deserves a bit of fortune!

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Since schools are being seen as so important I really don't see why teachers haven't been prioritised for vaccines, even if just to ensure schools can stay open because they will definitely have enough staff.

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