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Over the last couple of months, we've seen activity in this thread set this topic on course for the most read and replied on OTF of all time. 

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2 minutes ago, themadsheep2001 said:

TBF,

there's not closing the borders, slow to shut down major gatherings, slow into the first lockdowns, not supporting low income families so many have to choose between isolating and work (keeping infection in community) and the entire failure around care homes leading to 20,000 deaths. That not dunking on them or hindsight criticism, all have been flagged at the time, not dealt with and have caused or are causing issues

Vaccination is the one area they have been nailing it

 

 

Voting to let children starve

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1 minute ago, Big Geordie said:

Yup - Johnson says he aims for schools to open on  March 8th - 'if the data allows'

I'll be surprised if that happens.

depends how the data starts heading. In theory if the vaccine is as effective as we hope, and the rollout continues strongly, deaths should start plummeting in a couple of weeks.

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4 minutes ago, themadsheep2001 said:

 Didn't mention that because I felt it wasn't necessarily Covid-19 specific, otherwise I agree

Fair point. More of a byproduct of Covid. 

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Government and Boris clearly culpable for many, many deaths - which is enough for them to forever be treated with contempt.

Suggesting they could be blamed for 100,000, or even 50,000 of them however, feels a tad extreme.

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1 minute ago, Reggiana said:

There's also handing out contracts worth hundreds of millions for PPE to random companies with no experience of providing it.

Actually, very poor of me not to mention this

Or the whole of test and trace

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But they've acted proportionately and appropriately and doing the best they can, right?

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Just now, Mr Adam said:

Government and Boris clearly culpable for many, many deaths - which is enough for them to forever be treated with contempt.

Suggesting they could be blamed for 100,000, or even 50,000 of them however, feels a tad extreme.

Agree on that though. All we can say is a lot more have needlessly died and that unforgivable

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I'm gonna put this out there before I read any spin or anybody else's opinion.

Announcing a continued lockdown until 8th March, with a review of data in the 3rd week February to see if schools and other things can open on 8th March - seems an incredibly sensible decision and is pretty much what I'd do / say if I was in charge. Should hopefully stop the questions about re-opening schools every day as well.

Now we need to hope the data does what we hope it will do in February.

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2 hours ago, Pompeyboyz said:

 

2 hours ago, brez22 said:

This line was the big standout for me: "Anal swabs are being deployed in Beijing quarantine as well as in some school settings, according to recent reports out of Beijing’s Daxing district."

:eek: 

No and no and no again 1 million times to that.

 

2 hours ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

Probably more comfortable than having a swab up your nose or down your throat.

 

2 hours ago, ginnybob said:

I'll be honest, I'd prefer that than a normal swab. 

*shifty eyes*

Ahem

"Up the bum, no harm done", surely? 

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3 minutes ago, Mr Adam said:

Government and Boris clearly culpable for many, many deaths - which is enough for them to forever be treated with contempt.

Suggesting they could be blamed for 100,000, or even 50,000 of them however, feels a tad extreme.

I'm not sure 50,000 will be unreasonable with where we're likely to end up. It's certainly true that we were going to have a lot of deaths under any government though.

I'd find the whole thing more acceptable if they were capable of admitting they had done anything wrong at any point rather than insisting on claiming they've made the right decisions throughout which makes it come across to me as caring far more about politics and power than people's lives.

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1 minute ago, Reggiana said:

I'm not sure 50,000 will be unreasonable with where we're likely to end up. It's certainly true that we were going to have a lot of deaths under any government though.

I'd find the whole thing more acceptable if they were capable of admitting they had done anything wrong at any point rather than insisting on claiming they've made the right decisions throughout which makes it come across to me as caring far more about politics and power than people's lives.

politicians don't admit they were wrong until they resign. cancel culture has seen to that. if one person in authority admits to any mistake, the media don't leave them alone until they're resigned.

Whether they should actually resign is a whole other question (one which I think we all know the answer to for some of the leadership)

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3 minutes ago, Confused Clarity said:

"Up the bum, no harm done", surely? 

Probably an area in England where the accent make a rhyme of that

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3 minutes ago, Mr Adam said:

politicians don't admit they were wrong until they resign. cancel culture has seen to that.

:D 

Politicians have never resigned or accepted blame until there's no other option.

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Just now, Haguey said:

:D 

Politicians have never resigned until there's no other option.

true. cancel culture has exacerbated it though. it's why in society you very rarely get any sort of authority admitting a mistake.

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No it hasn't changed it. What has changed is that they now just continue to look the other way and ignore facts and evidence and insist they were right instead, that's new. Double down or die.

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8 minutes ago, Reggiana said:

I'm not sure 50,000 will be unreasonable with where we're likely to end up. It's certainly true that we were going to have a lot of deaths under any government though.

I'd find the whole thing more acceptable if they were capable of admitting they had done anything wrong at any point rather than insisting on claiming they've made the right decisions throughout which makes it come across to me as caring far more about politics and power than people's lives.

There's been a noticeable change in strategy and communications in recent weeks (although I imagine staffing changes with number 10 have had a big part in that), which is probably as close as you'll get to an apology.

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3 minutes ago, Haguey said:

No it hasn't changed it. What has changed is that they now just continue to look the other way and ignore facts and evidence and insist they were right instead, that's new. Double down or die.

err, yeh. that can still be true with cancel culture having an effect as well.

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On Labour's idea, I think some of those occupations do have a higher death rate than the people in their 50s, so I can see some sense in it as an idea. Telling everyone it will benefit 6.2m is a bit odd though, it's not like it's leading to more vaccines being dished out.

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45 minutes ago, Lucas said:

 

The vaccine programme is the most proactive the combined Conservative governments (since the last Labour government) have been since 2016. And that is sad. 

 

We have to wait to praise/judge them on the vaccine rollout. The UK approach would always mean we get alot initially vaccinated early doors as they prioritised that over the 2nd dose. But lets see what happens March onwards when the 2nd dose is due en-mass for people.

Still seems a debate amongst scientists if the UK approach is the right one, and now talk of shortages which may effect peoples 2nd dose. Until we have people fully vaccinated, cant judge the success of anything

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4 minutes ago, Paul Bacon said:

We have to wait to praise/judge them on the vaccine rollout. The UK approach would always mean we get alot initially vaccinated early doors as they prioritised that over the 2nd dose. But lets see what happens March onwards when the 2nd dose is due en-mass for people.

Still seems a debate amongst scientists if the UK approach is the right one, and now talk of shortages which may effect peoples 2nd dose. Until we have people fully vaccinated, cant judge the success of anything

At the very least you have to give the Government credit for committing money to several different vaccines, getting contracts signed early, that sort of thing. 

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Just now, Coulthard's Jaw said:

At the very least you have to give the Government credit for committing money to several different vaccines, getting contracts signed early, that sort of thing. 

BG: Nope.

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8 minutes ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

At the very least you have to give the Government credit for committing money to several different vaccines, getting contracts signed early, that sort of thing. 

Yea they did well making sure we have so many doses of it, and the initially vaccination wave.

I just fear that they're so motivated by the number of daily vaccinations, the targets they set and telling us how much better we're than Europe that when it comes to the 2nd dose (which is far more important longterm to get us out of this mess), that the same wont apply.

Already they dont ever really mention the 2nd dose numbers, its just tucked away in smaller print

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Just avoiding a third consecutive Wednesday over 1,000

973 English hospital deaths reported on Wednesday 27th January (compared with 1,027 last Wednesday). 842 within the five days 22nd to 26th January. 106 aged 6 to 28 days. 25 aged >28 days (21 in December, 4 in November).

Seven day rolling average at 21st January is currently 772 (Last 5 7dra 757.9, 766.3, 771.3, 773.1, 772).

The Highest 7dra of the 2nd wave is currently 773.1 on 20th January; the highest single day being 19th January (817)

Regionally, 7dra for 21st January (comparison with 20th January): London 160.4 (+2.1), Mids 146.1 (nc), SE 139 (-1.1), East 114.6 (-1.4), NW 82.1 (-1.3), NE&Y 82.1 (+0.2), SW 45.6 (+2.6).

Spoiler

 

16th January was the first day to see >800 deaths. All three of 16th, 18th and 19th January are now over 800 deaths. there were only two days over 800 deaths in the first wave.

Consecutive days above a number of deaths:
200: 89 (29/Oct to 25/Jan) - first wave 47
300: 40 (17/Dec to 25/Jan) - first wave 37
400: 32 (25/Dec to 25/Jan) - first wave 27
500: 21 (4/Jan to 24/Jan) - first wave 21
600: 18 (6/Jan to 23/Jan) - first wave 17
700: 11 (11/Jan to 21/Jan) - first wave 10


Daily peaks in the second wave:

  • NE&Yorks 100 (19/Jan)
  • Mids 158 (18/Jan) +1
  • NW 90 (22/Jan) +1
  • SE 165 (12/Jan)
  • London 177 (18/Jan) +1
  • SW 58 (20/Jan) +1
  • East 126 (9/Jan and 12/Jan) +3

Top of the list for deaths in the last five days are (limit changed to >=40)

  • Birmingham (86/2081 +42)
  • East Suffolk and North Essex (64/929 +18)
  • Frimley (60/961 +22)
  • Derby and Burton (54/1332 +15)
  • Mid and South Essex (54/1851 +19) (see note at bottom)
  • Lewisham & Greenwich (49/870 +19)
  • UH Dorset (48/308 +34)
  • Portsmouth (45/698 +7)
  • Royal Free (44/926 +11)
  • Sandwell & West Birmingham (44/883 +11)
  • Barts (42/1449 +18)
  • Chelsea & Westminster (40/691 +10)


Six trusts between 35 and 39 deaths
Three trusts between 30 and 34 deaths
Ten trusts between 25 and 29 deaths
Sixteen trusts between 20 and 24 deaths
Twenty-three trusts between 15 and 19 deaths
Twenty-two trusts between 10 and 14 deaths
Twenty-three trusts between 5 and 9 deaths

149 (+1) of 226* trusts have had deaths in the last five days

*Mid and South Essex was formed (in April 2020) by the merger of Basildon and Thurrock (778 up to yesterday), Mid Essex (419) and Southend (635). The three trusts' data has been merged today, and the new trust is the second highest overall in terms of deaths

With Mid and South Essex automatically over 1000 deaths, Leicester became the 10th trust to reach that figure.

 

 

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No surprise on the school announcement but it's deflating nonetheless. I've got it reasonably "easy" in the sense that my wife doesn't work so she's doing the home schooling, but this isn't good for the kids or her. 

Thoughts with the teacher's too. I know we have a few in here who aren't having a great time of it - hopefully this is the final stretch 😬

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21 minutes ago, Coulthard's Jaw said:

At the very least you have to give the Government credit for committing money to several different vaccines, getting contracts signed early, that sort of thing. 

The EU have done that as well though haven't they, they've just backed some of the wrong horses.

I don't know enough about vaccine development to know how much is luck and how much is skill in terms of signing contracts for the right ones.

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Still no clear criteria on what we are measuring or what it needs to show before we change things, but we have announced the date we are aiming for anyway. Hard to believe they are still so bad at this.

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4 minutes ago, Reggiana said:

The EU have done that as well though haven't they, they've just backed some of the wrong horses.

I don't know enough about vaccine development to know how much is luck and how much is skill in terms of signing contracts for the right ones.

We backed lots of horses though (and all using varying technologies so if only one horse was viable we'd still be good) and got supply agreements set up about as early as possible. It was a gamble, because if the early vaccines had not worked in the trials it would have all been for nothing, but this was a situation where taking that gamble was worth it.

And the EU seem to have backed the same horses as us, but they just delayed a few months and here we are.

Edited by Coulthard's Jaw
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Just now, Coulthard's Jaw said:

We backed lots of horses though (and all using varying technologies so if only one horse was viable we'd still be good) and got supply agreements set up about as early as possible. It was a gamble, because if the early vaccines had not worked in the trials it would have all been for nothing, but this was a situation where taking that gamble was worth it.

I think this one of those times where being small and agile *grimace emoji* has paid off. We could negotiate multiple deals for multiple vaccines in total quantities that wouldn't even have covered the EU's population.

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The EU being slow? Well, I never...

I read that Hungary have had enough and have decided to try and negotiate their own vaccine supplies from Russia and China. Is that true?

 

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23 minutes ago, Paul Bacon said:

I just fear that they're so motivated by the number of daily vaccinations, the targets they set and telling us how much better we're than Europe that when it comes to the 2nd dose (which is far more important longterm to get us out of this mess), that the same wont apply.

Already they dont ever really mention the 2nd dose numbers, its just tucked away in smaller print

Government deal in abstractions so that's all that really matters to them. 

But agree the worry on the 2nd dose, we will just have to wait and see.

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28 minutes ago, Paul Bacon said:

Yea they did well making sure we have so many doses of it, and the initially vaccination wave.

I just fear that they're so motivated by the number of daily vaccinations, the targets they set and telling us how much better we're than Europe that when it comes to the 2nd dose (which is far more important longterm to get us out of this mess), that the same wont apply.

Already they dont ever really mention the 2nd dose numbers, its just tucked away in smaller print

I dont know why I bother myself to get involved in these conversations but i'm going to anyway.

I'm not sure what your worry actually is here? Your post indicates you think the 2nd dose is important for long term vaccination. I also agree this seems to be what all the scientists are saying (admittedly I don't read nearly as much as some others) but the general consensus is the 1st dose will protect you.

so this means we are rushing to a point where as many people as possible are protected, this will buy us time...

we could use that time, to, I don't know, roll out the 2nd vaccine?

 

damn those tories!

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