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Group stage permutations and potential round of 16 matchups


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Just seen this on Twitter which is super cool:

image.thumb.png.952ae00367fc88dbdad678d064152e7b.png

Not sure how the remaining match results are being forecast, but only gives Germany a 20% chance of winning their group after their defeat against Mexico (and a 40% chance of going out altogether).  Therefore if Germany get through, Brazil v Germany in the R16 is statistically the most likely scenario.  Posted this in a few threads but this really does play into England's hands if they can manage to overcome a Group H team and then avoid both Brazil and Germany in the quarters.  Especially so when our group is the last to be settled so we will go into our final game knowing for certain what the two paths are.  Potentially we could be looking at Senegal/Japan in the R16 and then Mexico or Sweden or Switzerland or Serbia in the QFs.  But to do this we'd need to finish 2nd in the group and not win it. 

So best results at the weekend would be England and Belgium both win again, but we stay behind Belgium on goal difference.  Then we can play out a draw against Belgium on the last day.  If we rack up a big win vs Panama or Belgium drop points against Tunisia we could end up leading the group when it would be better for us not to.  Surely the England guys and coaching staff will have looked at this?  So if all of the above still looks likely after the next lot of games in Brazil's and Germany's groups... we should be easing off against Panama if we get it to 2-0 instead of racking up a load more goals.

Edited by Rob1981
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Also interesting how little chance it is giving Iran when they now only need to nick a 1-0 win against Portugal to go through at their expense.

 

Edited by Rob1981
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I mentioned this a few days ago as soon as Germany lost that it makes a massive difference to how England's chances are now. You can see it in their odds, having already been cut to 12/1 in some places.

 

They could have a very easy run right through to the SF potentially.

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Just now, skybluedave said:

I'm dumb and don't understand that. So is that each teams percentage chance of winning the group?

It's the % chances of the team being in that "slot", for example,  it gives England a 43% chance of finishing first and being 1G, and a 44% chance of them finishing second and being 2G. The %'s are the likelyhood of the teams being in that slot.

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22 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

Also interesting how little chance it is giving Iran when they now only need to nick a 1-0 win against Portugal to go through at their expense.

 

Portugal have a very high ELO ranking which is what this is based on.

 

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We'll never learn as England fans will we :D

2010 World cup - If we won our group consisting of USA, Slovenia & Algeria we'd have had a 2nd round match Vs Ghana, followed by a Uruguay QF then a semi Vs the Dutch or Brazil, we screwed that up by drawing twice in the group and finishing 2nd on GD to USA then got humbled by Germany in the last 16.

2012 Euros done okay (QF penalty exit to Italy after topping group) followed by 2014 World Cup which was a mess however 2016 Euros all we needed to do was win a group consisting of Wales, Slovakia & Russia to get a potential route of Northern Ireland, Belgium then Portugal to reach the final however we messed that up by again drawing twice in the group and getting a route of Iceland, France then Germany before the final however we were thunderslapped out by overlooking / underestimating Iceland.

I've been really optimistic about our chances before typing that but I'm now thinking we're going to draw with Panama and Belgium and get a nightmare route aren't we? and even then we'll overlook / underestimate our opponents again and start thinking how we have to navigate the QF and we'll subsequently lose to Japan or Senegal in the round of 16 :seagull:

Isn't it great being an England fan, the extreme optimism and full blown pessimism? I think it's time we learnt our lesson so let's just go game by game lads.

**** it!

We're winning this tournament aren't we? :hammer:

:stop::idiot: :lol:

Edited by Hodgy
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8 hours ago, Rob1981 said:

Also interesting how little chance it is giving Iran when they now only need to nick a 1-0 win against Portugal to go through at their expense.

 

they're giving Iran about a 23% chance which seems reasonable to me (8% chance of winning the group, 15% chance of second).  Bookies have them at 5/1 to beat Portugal.

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12 minutes ago, Hodgy said:

2010 World cup - If we won our group consisting of USA, Slovenia & Algeria we'd have had a 2nd round match Vs Ghana, followed by a Uruguay QF then a semi Vs the Dutch or Brazil, we screwed that up by drawing twice in the group and finishing 2nd on GD to USA then got humbled by Germany in the last 16.

Worst thing about that was that we went out on goals scored, not even on goal difference.  And from about 80 minutes we were holding the ball in corner at 1-0 up against Slovenia, then USA went and scored in the other game.

Just a terrible WC campaign from start to finish, even the brief higlight of qualifying for the R16 was ruined by us shooting ourselves in the foot at the death and ending up with Germany :(

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I think if England don't have to play Brazil or Germany in the QF, then they'll make the semis. I think Switzerland will be difficult if that's who they face - their record deserves more respect than it will get on here - but I think they'll have enough to get through.

I find the mentality of that scenario very interesting. Not sure what kind of message it sends out when you play for a result to avoid a specific opponent. You'll have to play them eventually

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I can still see Germany winning their group, I wouldn't be surprised if Mexico draw their last two group games or even lose to Sweden.

I agree with Hodgy, a couple of results have gone our way so now we're getting excited based on every other game going to form 

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So if England beat Panama and Belgium beat Tunisia we might have a weird situation where neither England or Belgium will want to win their last game together or they’ll end up in a worse part of the later draw. 

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Basically if Belgium beat Tunisia we need a win against Panama but not a big win by more than a couple of goals. Then we are through but stay behind Belgium on GD and we can play out a draw in the final game and finish second. Or even let them win it.

Best thing for Belgium to do in the last match if that plays out would be them leathering the ball into their own net in the first minute, then sitting down at 0-1 for the rest of the match. I would love them to actually do this. Imagine the howls of protest from the English media if we are “robbed” of the runner up spot and end up being forced to win the group by Belgium’s skullduggery :D 

Edited by Rob1981
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I don't care about next round permutations. I'd rather just go out and try a win each game and see where it takes us. I mean we celebrated getting Iceland instead of Portugal at the last Euros and that turned out well. I mean if we win 4 games and then play Brazil then bring it on. 

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I mentioned it in the England thread, but I'd like England to win the group so we play on Friday night in the quarter finals rather than Saturday afternoon.  Friday night around England on the 6th of July will be LIT! 

 

(providing we qualify AND beat the second round team :D

Edited by Bliss Seeker
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5 hours ago, Redshift said:

So if England beat Panama and Belgium beat Tunisia we might have a weird situation where neither England or Belgium will want to win their last game together or they’ll end up in a worse part of the later draw. 

Yes. I wrote this somewhere else earlier this week, I'll copy & paste here:

 

The most interesting (and given the weekend’s results somewhat realistic) scenario is as follows…

  • Brazil win their group ahead of Switzerland
  • Germany finish 2nd in their group behind Mexico
  • England and Belgium both beat Panama and Tunisia

This would mean whoever wins the England vs Belgium match will definitely face either Brazil or Germany in a possible quarter final, and whoever loses it will definitely face either Switzerland or Mexico in a possible quarter final.

So it could be a festival of own goals!

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England vs Belgium could be like that episode of South Park where the kids baseball league is full of teams trying to intentionally lose so they can go home and play videogames.

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5 hours ago, skybluedave said:

I don't care about next round permutations. I'd rather just go out and try a win each game and see where it takes us.

Easy to say that.  "Oh yeah, if we want to win it we need to be able to beat anyone" etc.  But if we lose to Brazil/Germany in the quarters it goes down as yet another mediocre World Cup where we couldn't go out and perform above expectations.  If we get Mexico/Serbia/Sweden/Switzerland and beat them and then lose to Spain or someone in the semis people could be talking about these games in 20-30 years the way we talk about Italia 90 and Euro 96.  If the draw means we're fortunate enough to play last and our results in the first two games mean we can effectively control Game 3 and "choose" our path from there, why on earth wouldn't we. 

Best we can hope for is being able to draw 0-0 though and at least make it look like we were trying a bit.  I can't honestly see either us or Belgium actually losing on purpose although if we did it would be up there with the great World Cup "bantz" like West Germany v Austria 1982 or the Zaire lad smashing that Brazil free kick away.

Edited by Rob1981
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8 minutes ago, Rob1981 said:

If the draw means we're fortunate enough to play last and our results in the first two games mean we can effectively control Game 3 and "choose" our path from there, why on earth wouldn't we.

Just to clarify this point, England's group is the very last to conclude so we will definitely know all of the possible permutations prior to kicking off.

Honestly, if England and Belgium have both qualified and a second place finish guarantees a much more doable route to the semi-final, we could see some serious chaos.

Having said that, I don't think either Southgate or Martinez are the types to start playing silly buggers when it comes to stuff like this. I predict England will produce their best World Cup performance in 50 years to beat Belgium 3-0, and then lose 1-0 to Germany in the quarters because we played our way onto their side of the draw :D 

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Yes. The right attitude should be not giving a flying crap about the next opponent. This is the World Cup, and it will be a knockout tournament in the coming days. Anything can happen. The Mexicans showed they could beat the Germans. England shouldn't be afraid. If you're afraid before the game, you already lose before stepping onto the pitch. Go out there and play your game. Do your best so that you don't regret anything when going back to the tunnel.

COME ON, ENGLAND!

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I was expecting 7 points each before, but with Belgium edging it on GD. Given that a draw wouldn't be a bad result for either side in terms of momentum it'll be weird that a booking could seal who finishes where and therefore feasibly an 'easier' game.

I don't like that though, particularly after the 'easy' Iceland draw in the Euros. Take on whoever.

Edited by ginnybob
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Try and win the game against Belgium and go from there. We could easily play Colombia wherever we finish and that will not be easy. Have to take it game by game and just try and win every match possible.

It's a world cup, you're not winning it by facing *****, you have to play good teams.

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14 minutes ago, georginho_juventusygr said:

The right attitude should be not giving a flying crap about the next opponent.

Don’t buy this at all.

We could have Japan followed by Mexico/Serbia/Switzerland 

or we could get Colombia followed by Brazil/Germany

You can look at this and if it’s in your hands you should be savvy enough to play for the one that looks easier. Without this being a sign of weakness or nerves or mental fragility. Nobody wins a World Cup with seven great performances in a row. You win a World Cup by turning it on if you need to but making life easy for yourself where you can.

i can’t believe we have now basically gone top of the group by accident :D Convinced Gareth sent them back out and told them not to score again.

Edited by Rob1981
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Fast forward two weeks and imagine we get our arses handed to us by Brazil, while Belgium make the semis after only having to play Japan and Switzerland.

As if everyone is posting in here afterwards going “oh well, at least we didn’t fear anyone and didn’t care who we played”.

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I guess it depends on what mentality you instill into the players beforehand. If it's a "Let's go for second as we'll only be playing Japan, lads" mentality then it could cost us. I fear that is exactly what happened against Iceland.

Not sure Southgate will have them thinking the same this time out though. I have warmed to him as manager after really disliking the appointment initially.

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Every team is looking for an easy route, this "I don't give a ****" is BS.

No team wants that hard route, you are always hoping for for a bit of luck when it comes to the knock outs.
Is there an England fan that wouldn't take Japan and then Switzerland instead of Colombia followed by Brazil?

Well maybe @ginnybob as he doesn't give a ****.

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Not saying we played for that, but I think going into the match we thought it would be a pushover. If you;re playing for the 'easier' tie it could slip into complacency.

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Of course I'd take Japan and Switzerland you ****ing dullard :D

I just don't give a **** if it was Colombia and think they are some heavyweight team that we need to fear. Pretty sure I never mentioned Brazil.

Edited by ginnybob
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Group H finishes after ours, so we could easily play for 2nd and then end up with Colombia winning that group and play them.

Of course if you're picking opponents you want Japan then Mexico/Switzerland, but football doesn't work like that. We're not even guaranteed on where Brazil or Germany are going to finish yet either.

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Group H actually finishes before. England's group, bizarrely, is the last to complete.

Are England actually top? I thought that Panama goal put them second again

Edited by Astafjevs
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29 minutes ago, Astafjevs said:

Group H actually finishes before. England's group, bizarrely, is the last to complete.

Are England actually top? I thought that Panama goal put them second again

Oh, that's odd :D

Still, I think deliberately trying to get second is just asking to losing in the second round. It's tempting fate and I really wouldn't want to see it.

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The Belgium game is in 4 days time. If we come top of the group our next game will be 4 days after that. If we come second our next game is in 5 days time. So it might be worth resting players, especially the defence and wingbacks.

Of course coming top in the group means we have 5 days rest instead of 4 for the Final.

:ackter:

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Think Japan will win Group H, Poland have been so bad I can’t see Japan not beating them. Then they would stay top unless Senegal beat Colombia by a bigger score.

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For selfish reasons I want us to win the group so our 1/4 can be on a Friday night (if we get there :D). Can you imagine the atmosphere around the country for that? 

I do agree with Rob though, if you can engineer an 'easier' path then you should do it. 

Don't care though, I'd love to beat Germany and Brazil on the way to smashing Spain in the final \o/

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Why are so many people insistent that England should go and try and beat Belgium?

 

What exactly am I missing? Do we get some kind of automatic bye if we beat Belgium which takes us to the semi finals or something?

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9 hours ago, Readingfanman said:

Why are so many people insistent that England should go and try and beat Belgium?

 

What exactly am I missing? Do we get some kind of automatic bye if we beat Belgium which takes us to the semi finals or something?

I'm seeing the same with people insistent we should try and finish second. Neither position guarantees us anything so we should try and carry on the momentum with a win.

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