Wins, dominance but finishing/conversion rate problems

[fidelitywars]

Hi all,

Just curious as to what people would think is a 'good' shot conversion rate, particularly in terms of CCCs? My team seems astonishingly profligate in front of goal, which is something that has been source of ineffable frustration in the past couple of FMs. Rather than rant and sink deeper into seemingly bottomless misery, I thought that it's probably more constructive to seek help here to see if i'm making any glaring mistakes...

So, I'm managing Dinamo Zagreb in my 2nd season and at the risk of sounding hideously entitled/spoilt, the issue isn't that i'm not winning but rather, that i'm not winning anywhere near as well as I expect to given a) the relative strength of my team domestically and b) the domination and number of chances that i'm creating.

Initially, I set up with a pretty standard possession-orientated 4-3-3 with a holding player but have struggled to create with any quantity unless I play a number 10 and as such, have mostly lined up thus:

SK(d)

FB(s) CD(d) CD(d) FB(a)

DLP(d) B2B(s)

R(a) AP(s) AM(s)

AF(a)

Apologies for the formatting but it's essentially an asymmetrical 4-2-3-1 with an attacking midfielder tucking-in front the left (and set to swap positions with my AP). In terms of TIs, i'm playing control/structured with the highest line possible, lower tempo, wide width and work ball into box, play out of defence and be more expressive all ticked. In terms of raw points, it's been surprisingly successful - i'd have thought that the space behind my midfield would be exposed and that i'd be vulnerable to breaks but this hasn't really happened at all, even at CL level.

Typically, in domestic matches, my control is almost complete - I have around 25 shots (roughly half on target), 4/5 CCCs and another 6/7 half-chances, with only 3 or 4 long shots and around 60% possession whilst the opposition (even at home) rarely have more than 1 CCC. However, I'm only scoring around 2 goals per match and although I seldom concede, I'm pretty much at my wit's end seeing chance after chance roll tamely into the opposition keeper's grateful hands and the woodwork being hit an improbable amount of times.

I am just about self-aware enough to grasp that this may seem like a 'my £50s are too big for my wallet' type complaint...but is it not legitimate? Am I expecting too much/doing something obviously wrong? Is anyone else experiencing similar frustrations? I don't take the pragmatic 'a win's a win' view at all and want more than the joyless accumulation of narrow(ish) wins, particularly when the opposition are often poor. Of course, I don't expect to win 6-0 every week but with the team i've assembled, 2 or 3 times a season would be nice - as it is, I seem 'capped' at 3 (if i'm lucky), with the (very) rare 4-0 or 4-1 adding a little colour but these are typically in cup games. Ultimately, I just feel that my domination isn't reflected in the scoreline and well, I just can't enjoy the game as a consequence.

Other things of note are:

- The Raumdeuter role (which I'm instinctively averse to) isn't working as i'd expect - the player in that role is seeing an enormous amount of ball and hitting double-figures for key passes regularly, which seems at odds with its description as a 'wide poacher.' His finishing however, is largely abysmal.

- Sticking with key passes, I'm making an implausible amount. As an example, in my last match (a rare 3-0 romp), my full-backs made 12 and 13, AP and AM 12 a piece and my Raumdeuter a barely-believable 17. Now, my team is pretty exceptional technically (Croatia is the land of the playmaker, it would seem) and the opposition weren't great but does that not sound a shade excessive?

- Seemingly every AI team in Croatia plays a hyper-defensive interpretation of the 3-5-2 (perhaps explaining why i'm getting away without a holding player). Is this is a known data issue? The challenge of a save like Dinamo is obviously the CL where this is not an issue but still, familiarity breeds contempt...

- Perhaps linked to the above...but are some leagues intrinsically lower-scoring than others? My first FM16 save was with Wolves and although finishing was worlds away from clinical, it did seem that the English leagues were more conducive to high-scoring.

- I just can't get any consistency out of my centre-forward. I've tried a number of roles and ideally, i'd prefer a support duty for a lone forward but the attributes of my first choice really do point towards an AF. Initially, I brought Eduardo da Silva back to play as a false 9 in a 4-3-3 but despite very good finishing/composure/off the ball/anticipation/technique (especially at this level), he was next to useless. He was also poor as a trequartista.

Is any of the above valid or is this all just an embarrassing tantrum?

[Deego619]

I don't think this is out of the ordinary per say. You are playing a possession game which will allow the other teams time to regroup defensively. Add to that they play 3-5-2s you have a solid defensive unit. Have you watched the shots from your games via the analysis tab? You can easily rack up 30 shots in a match with more than half being from shot to nothings.

Sometimes I find when the quality gap between you and the other teams in the your division is so vast, it's best off playing some gung ho stuff. I had a 20 year save in the Irish Premier Division last year where my team would of won with a 1-0-9 formation but regardless I played the same formation as you and just put them on an Attacking mentality and watched sparks fly. Try upping the tempo in some of your games and see how it goes.

I think your R/A is doing the same thing as your AF/A and as such I have a feeling he's actually supplying the AF/A like a winger because he's being forced wide. I personally don't like playing IFs/Rs in a 4-2-3-1 such as yours, I'd just put them both as wingers and let them supply the AF. Alternatively, change your AM to an Enganche and ST to a Support Role so your R has more space to exploit.

[DavidPengilley]

How 'clear cut' where the clear cut chances? That statistic and it's name is quite misleading as it makes you think it was easier to score than miss, and it's not always the case. Example being a cross to a striker 8 - 10 yards out, header but keeper saved. Marked as a clear cut chance. What it doesn't tell you is how good the guy was at heading (8 attribute) and the keeper's reflexes (16) - not a clear cut chance.

I'd review them, and if you have time the other shots and the build-up play, to see if they are chances or if they are very difficult shots to make. Are the shots making it to the goal or are they being blocked by defenders in front of them?

[fidelitywars]

Thanks for the replies - I've been reticent to up my tempo/mentality as i've previously found it to be far too aggressive and resulted in a daft compulsion for speculative shooting from all players, regardless of their goal threat, position or PIs. That said, it must be worth a try so i'll certainly test it out if people have had success with this approach.

Regarding the raumdeuter - I tend to agree; as I stated, I don't particularly like the role (as it's described, at least) as it seems far too limiting but then, the alternatives aren't really what i'm looking for, once inside forward is discounted. I'm no great fan of wing play so am reluctant to set anyone to that role owing to locked-in PI of 'cross more often' - this is diametrically opposed to what I'm after and would limit the more cerebral, creative attributes of that player (who would also be disadvantaged owing to his left-footedness). I want to win by playing patient, probing football with my superior players unpicking opposition defences with interplay/throughballs...which does happen but then the shooting opportunities are hideously squandered. Something I find strange is that the relatively poor opposition and AI managers never seem to allow their heads to drop - IRL the floodgates often open following an opening goal from a dominant team but this just never really seems to happen in FM.

Changing my AM to an enganche however isn't something i'd considered so that's something to pursue. I experimented with the role in FM15 but found it far less productive (in terms of goals/assists) than an AP but will see how/if that's altered in this version.

The types of chances i'm creating do seem clear - like I say, i'm keen to limit crosses so there aren't a huge number of crosses. Still, even if there were, my AF has a 15 for heading and the quality of goalkeeping in Croatia isn't great on paper...though this seems to be frequently overruled in practice. I usually have a few shots blocked per game but not a huge percentage by any stretch. What does seem to happen fairly regularly is that the 'keeper will make a double-save and my player will then somehow hit the post with the 3rd attempt, effectively missing at least 2 CCCs in the same move.

[Cleon]

Can you provide some images please? Particularly this image of your strikers or the people who should be scoring goals please;

You can find it in the player profile then stats tab.

[fidelitywars]

Yeah, can do once i've got access to my laptop - should be able to this evening.

Can you just print screen the image, save and then use the 'insert image' option from the quick reply options or do I need to upload images via another program?

[Cleon]

You use the link the image hosting site gives you (you can't upload to SI it needs to be an image hosting site like imageshack.us or http://imgur.com/ and then you add it here using the 'image' option on the options when you post. So you click the 'image' icon, choose from URL and add the link you got from the image hosting site into the empty box. Also untick the box that says 'Retrieve remote file and reference locally if you get that option (you don't always but sometimes you do)

[fidelitywars]

Cool - thanks for the reply/info. I'll get the images as soon as possible.

[fidelitywars]

This is the player I hoped to be my main attacking threat - he's played either as a raumdeuter or inside forward and as you can see, his ratings have been exceptional (the complaint was never that I'm not winning) but his profligacy can be infuriating.

This is Eduardo da Silva, a signing I thought was something of a coup but who's proved anything but. Sadly, it doesn't look like you can post the stats from previous seasons as he was equally inept in a different set-up last season.

My box-to-box midfielder. Another who's contribution in every facet of play other than the decisive touch has been exemplary.

A recent signing and much more a conventional number 9/advanced forward than any of the above. I know it's a small sample size but 5 goals from 45 attempts i'd suggest isn't great for a player who's comfortably the best striker in the Croatian top flight.

My team instructions - this has largely been what i've used but there has been the odd bit of experimentation with increased tempo and a fluid shape but such changes failed to yield improved results so were quickly shelved.

To re-iterate, i'm attempting a patient, passing game with long shots discouraged so the stats shouldn't be skewed by wild, speculative smashes from absurd angles/distance. I'm more than willing to accept that my tactical set-up isn't great and is effecting my efficiency but I still can't shake the impression that finishing in FM16 just isn't very crisp.

[Dr. Hook]

The Images are not showing up. Once you get then hosted on photobucket or whatever, it should give you a code to copy and paste into your post.

[HUNT3R]

Fixed now. You just needed a .jpg after the image name.

[fidelitywars]

Thanks HUNT3R - this uploading images thing is clearly very new to me. Sorry about that - hope such rookie errors don't detract from my points!

[pattricb]

Whats the thinking behind instructing your team to play so wide? Surely if you want to play a slow possession game you'd want your players to be closer to each other.

[fidelitywars]

Yeah, it's somewhat counter-intuitive but domestically, absolutely everyone plays hyper-defensively and it was an attempt to stretch the play a little and allow my playmaker a little more space. I did initially have width set to 'fairly narrow' (pretty much my default approach on saves) but found that play was a little congested.

[mibsweden]

By playing with a high defensive line aren´t you just congesting the final third even more, especielly when teams are playing very defensively against you.

[fidelitywars]

Possibly, yes but isn't a high line a basic tenet of a possession-orientated system? IRL, pretty much all teams that seek to dominate push their line up the field and aim to play in the opposition's half. It does mean that 'through ball' is the predominant assist type of goals I concede but I accept and expect that as a risk. This set-up does create plenty of chances - the issue is that (I feel) far too many of them are wastefully squandered.

[mibsweden]

This article by Cleon on his blog opened my mind: http://sisportscentre.com/building-a-tactic-from-the-beginning-the-walls-of-jericho/

[themadsheep2001]

Bit confused by this now. You've seemingly come to your conclusion on other threads about finishing. So I'm not sure what we can offer if you have already decided what it's going to be?

[fidelitywars]

Bit confused by this now. You've seemingly come to your conclusion on other threads about finishing. So I'm not sure what we can offer if you have already decided what it's going to be?

I'm an optimist at heart, you see. I was hoping that there'd be something i'd overlooked that was causing my team to frequently squander CCCs or failing that, an acknowledgement that finishing does need a little work. As things now stand, i'm genuinely surprised that wasteful finishing isn't something the Mods on these boards think isn't a problem.

[RTHerringbone]

i'm genuinely surprised that wasteful finishing isn't something the Mods on these boards think isn't a problem.

What mods think isn't important.

I just looked through the Match Engine section of the bugs forum. Guess how many threads there are about poor finishing? The late Terry Nutkins could count them on one of his otter ravaged hands.

[jcw163]

The players in the stats above are all scoring 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 of their shots on target, and putting 1 in 3 or 1 in 2 of their total shots on target

I'm not sure what's wrong with this

[fidelitywars]

What mods think isn't important.

I just looked through the Match Engine section of the bugs forum. Guess how many threads there are about poor finishing? The late Terry Nutkins could count them on one of his otter ravaged hands.

I did notice that and yes, it did make me feel like i'm sinking deep into insanity. There are numerous complaints about it in the latest patch feedback thread, however.

If it remains as is, I suppose i'm just going to have to write-off this version of FM which after all these years, I think is pretty sad and i'm trying to find a resolution that presently just doesn't seem forthcoming. Still, the Mrs will be pleased, I suppose!

[fidelitywars]

The players in the stats above are all scoring 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 of their shots on target, and putting 1 in 3 or 1 in 2 of their total shots on target

I'm not sure what's wrong with this

I must have exacting standards. They miss a boatload of sitters.

[ajsr1982]

Here's my two cents.

I think what often gets lost in all of this is that the ME is still just a computer programme. An approximation to reality. It doesn't deal in perception. It deals in cold, hard facts and figures. So what looks like a sitter to you on screen, may well be intepreted/calculated differently by the ME. It has some kind of programming around spatial distribution and contact, of course, but it clearly isn't sophisticated enough to explicitly replicate reality. Nor should it be - that's insanely difficult, I would think.

It has to have some sub-optimal behaviour written into it to make it work. In the same way that it makes you tear your hair out when defenders inexplicably fail to track their man, sometimes your forwards will miss seemingly easy chances with more regularity than you'd expect. It's all just a bunch of algorithms with a basic (compared to some computer games) graphical interface overlaid onto it.

Put it this way; if you watched the match on text, would you be voicing the same complaints?

A quick internet search showed me that on average in the Premier League, about 50% of shots on goal are on target, and around 15% go in. You're not doing so badly.

[fidelitywars]

Here's my two cents.

I think what often gets lost in all of this is that the ME is still just a computer programme. An approximation to reality. It doesn't deal in perception. It deals in cold, hard facts and figures. So what looks like a sitter to you on screen, may well be intepreted/calculated differently by the ME. It has some kind of programming around spatial distribution and contact, of course, but it clearly isn't sophisticated enough to explicitly replicate reality. Nor should it be - that's insanely difficult, I would think.

It has to have some sub-optimal behaviour written into it to make it work. In the same way that it makes you tear your hair out when defenders inexplicably fail to track their man, sometimes your forwards will miss seemingly easy chances with more regularity than you'd expect. It's all just a bunch of algorithms with a basic (compared to some computer games) graphical interface overlaid onto it.

Put it this way; if you watched the match on text, would you be voicing the same complaints?

A quick internet search showed me that on average in the Premier League, about 50% of shots on goal are on target, and around 15% go in. You're not doing so badly.

Thanks for the reply. I do sometimes watch games on 'commentary only' mode when pushed for time and if anything, it makes things seem worse! You learn to dread lines like 'there's only 1 outcome from here' and '<insert name> surely!'

Yeah, i've seen those stats but they're surely they're skewed in that they account for teams who are poor and as such, will have lower conversion rates? Even so, if I converted 15% of my shots, i'd be wild with feral joy... Perhaps a self-imposed FM break really is for the best....

[RTHerringbone]

Put it this way; if you watched the match on text, would you be voicing the same complaints?

The whole post is bang on. The issue is representation rather than some nebulous rubber-banding which forces woeful shots onto the user to suppress cricket scores. SI would love to be in a position where shot selection is more varied and adds "reality" to the representation and they are working towards it. We have significantly more animations this year than last, and I'd assume the same increase for FM17. The range of shots and variety of placement is pretty limited at the moment, but even when SI are in a position where the range of shots matches real life, it won't necessarily result in increased conversion rates.

[vincenzo143]

Here's my two cents.

I think what often gets lost in all of this is that the ME is still just a computer programme. An approximation to reality. It doesn't deal in perception. It deals in cold, hard facts and figures. So what looks like a sitter to you on screen, may well be intepreted/calculated differently by the ME. It has some kind of programming around spatial distribution and contact, of course, but it clearly isn't sophisticated enough to explicitly replicate reality. Nor should it be - that's insanely difficult, I would think.

It has to have some sub-optimal behaviour written into it to make it work. In the same way that it makes you tear your hair out when defenders inexplicably fail to track their man, sometimes your forwards will miss seemingly easy chances with more regularity than you'd expect. It's all just a bunch of algorithms with a basic (compared to some computer games) graphical interface overlaid onto it.

Put it this way; if you watched the match on text, would you be voicing the same complaints?

A quick internet search showed me that on average in the Premier League, about 50% of shots on goal are on target, and around 15% go in. You're not doing so badly.

This has got to be one of the best responses I've ever read on the whole interwebs Have my thumbsup oh level headed person of the net.

[ajsr1982]

Thanks for the reply. I do sometimes watch games on 'commentary only' mode when pushed for time and if anything, it makes things seem worse! You learn to dread lines like 'there's only 1 outcome from here' and '<insert name> surely!'

Yeah, i've seen those stats but they're surely they're skewed in that they account for teams who are poor and as such, will have lower conversion rates? Even so, if I converted 15% of my shots, i'd be wild with feral joy... Perhaps a self-imposed FM break really is for the best....

Take a look for yourself. It's quite interesting.

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/chancenverwertung/wettbewerb/GB1/saison_id/2015/plus/1

Look who is bottom, think about how they play, and see if there are any parallels between that and your style. I can see a few.

Sorry, I'm being a little facetious there which isn't helping your despondency, but there is something to be drawn from it I think.

EDIT: Just to say that I often share your frustrations. You're doing better than me at this FM lark, for what it's worth. It's clearly possible to improve upon. Up to you whether you take that on, however. Seems like a decent challenge though, no?