Dibber Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 What are these the odds of ? being sacked ? keeping your job ? getting the job ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GazTheDoood Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 I was wondering this too. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herbie2100 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 odds is "next to get fired" Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomis07 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Are you sure? At the start of my save Guardiola is 6/4 at Bayern. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiitastic Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Odds of getting fired, I am sure of it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcWeir Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 i dont think it is of being fired because in my save wimbledon doesnt have a manager but there is an odd of 12-1 but the odds are of what then if there is no manager Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
9sublime Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It could be odds on you becoming the next manager? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomasmc135 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It could be odds on you becoming the next manager? That would make more sense. I've seen vacant jobs at really lowly teams with odds of 5,000-1 next to them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomis07 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It could be odds on you becoming the next manager? I thought that too, but when I loaded my save the odds at Bayern were 6/4 and at Inverness 5000/1. The Bayern odds have really thrown me, I can't imagine that's the odds of Guardiola getting sacked, without even playing a game, and I can't see me getting better odds to get the Bayern job when Inverness don't even have a manager. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dafuge Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I was wondering about this. If it was odds for getting sacked, clubs without a manager shouldn't have odds. If it's the odds on you getting the job then your own club shouldn't have odds. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babak G Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Maybe raise this in bugs forum. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
amero11 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The odds reflect the teams chances at winning the league. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomis07 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 No they don't. My latest save lists 90% of the teams as 50/1. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
podunkboy Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 No they don't. My latest save lists 90% of the teams as 50/1. perhaps "50 to 1" is the "field odds", when a team isn't considered a contender they assign them "field odds" as a chance of winning. At least that's how they do it when the bookies set odds for tournaments/playoffs here in America. That way, you can bet on an "also ran" but if they win, there's not a tremendous payout, like the time Phil Mickelson put down $1000 on the Baltimore Ravens one year, when they were 200-1 to win the Super Bowl at the start of the season, and they won it, making him a very nice chunk of change. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomis07 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 That would be fair enough if the likes of Man City weren't 50/1, along with Aston Villa who are also 50/1. I just don't get the odds at all. On first loading the save Guardiola and Bayern Munich were 6/4, whereas Paul Lambert and Aston Villa were 150/1, so that can't be odds on being sacked because it would imply that, without playing a league game, Guardiola is more likely to be sacked than Paul Lambert. A few games later and both are sitting at 50/1, which couldn't be odds on winning the league because it would imply that Villa have as much chance of winning the Premier League as Bayern do winning the Bundesliga. It can't be odds on you getting a job, because at the start of the game all of the vacant positions are 5,000/1, which implies you have no chance of getting them, when we all know that you're going to get one of them. I'm not mentioning it in the bugs forum because there's probably a reasonable explanation, i'd just love to know what it is. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
amero11 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Its 100% odds of winning he title. I start unemployed, just signed with a 2nd div Uruguay side with Media Prediction of coming first. Checked all 2nd Div teams in Uruaguay and the odds are pretty much based on media prediction of winning title check it out. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dafuge Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Its 100% odds of winning he title. I start unemployed, just signed with a 2nd div Uruguay side with Media Prediction of coming first. Checked all 2nd Div teams in Uruaguay and the odds are pretty much based on media prediction of winning title check it out. It sounds like you are thinking of a different kind of odds. Are you looking at the job security page? Or the media prediction page? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
amero11 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Job Security Page first, then have a look at media predictions. Not sure if this changes later in the season but at the beginning it makes the most sense. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hashisgod Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Seems to be odds of next getting the sack. Order by division, and then sub-order by job status. You'll notice that for teams with managers, the odds correlate directly with job status. Someone with a job status of 'Precarious' or 'Very Insecure' will be odds-on and most others who are safe will have 500/1+ odds. Only thing I'm confused with is when there is no manager...seem to get some really random odds. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomis07 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Its 100% odds of winning he title. I start unemployed, just signed with a 2nd div Uruguay side with Media Prediction of coming first. Checked all 2nd Div teams in Uruaguay and the odds are pretty much based on media prediction of winning title check it out. It's 100% not odds of winning the title. If it were then Barcelona and Real Madrid are 200-1 to win La Liga on my save i.e. no hope whatsoever. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
QWERTYOP Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Odds of being sacked. I've seen "untouchable" managers with odds of like 2000-1. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomis07 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 As the season has progressed it seems to have levelled out and the issues that I saw at the start seem to be no more, the odds now make sense in terms of odds to be sacked. What's the deal with the vacant team odds, though? Are they odds on us getting the job? E.g. i'm an ok rep and it's showing 1/12 for Brechin and 13/1 for Liverpool. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babak G Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Its still confusing and would help if a definitive answer came from SI. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
@ChrisLewis_1994 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I'm thinking it's more to do with the odds of you becoming the next manager at that club. But I agree that it needs some sort of clarification. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jase19 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Something that has always bothered me about FM is you could win the treble one year and be 90% into your job security as untouchable and then the new campaign starts and you're back to 50% or whatever starting all over... not very realistic... Especially if you do great a few years in a row and you still end up going back to the middle over and over. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DANNY1000000 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Can't be to get sacked, Arsene Wenger was 5000-1 on my game and he was insecure! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamman Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 The odds are weird anyway. The odds at the beginning of the season are a punters dream. All the top 4 teams were 16/1 to 20/1 to win the league. Wish that happened in real life, Id have a rather large bet on all of them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyNameIsJohn Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Odds are a mess in the game - books are either massively overbroke or overround. If you need someone who understands betting books then PM me! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
@ChrisLewis_1994 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I just saw Man City at the beginning of the game with odds of 25/1 to win the league. Surely this is wrong. Does seem like a decent way to make some money in real life with those odds. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wazza Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm thinking it's more to do with the odds of you becoming the next manager at that club. But I agree that it needs some sort of clarification. Can't see the odds been for you becoming the next manager on a previous Beta save I started unemployed and got the Stockport job with a Sunday League rep in the Skrill North - the odds of me getting the job where 5000-1. That means I was least favourite for it by the way of the odds - the way I understand it is that if someone bets £1 they will get £5000 back if it comes in plus £1 stake money (5000/1 x £1 = £5000 + £1 stake total winnings £5001 - making me least favourite as the bookies would loose a fortune if it came in. Bookies would generally put low odds on favourites so they don't have to pay alot out and loose money However with the league been the lowest and my rep bee the lowest I should actually be one of the favourites for the job - hence me getting it and everyone who bet on it winning a fortune lol. To me if it is correct that the odds are for you to become the next manager they are the wrong way round. Another example is that the Quatar and South Korea National managers jobs are available quoting at 10-1 that would mean of somebody put £1 on they would get 10/1 x £1 = £10 + £1 stake = total winning £11 making me a favourite for the job as bookies wont want to pay out much if your favourite - not possible imo to be more favourite for a national team than a non league team with Sunday League rep SI can you please clarify what the odds mean as there is alot of confusion. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomis07 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 You understand it correctly, wazza, and i've seen a number of instances similar to yours. Me being untouchable at lowly Olhanense and listed as 5,000-1 for Fulham, but 6-4 for Liverpool. Same goes for odds of being sacked, at the very start of the game the top teams are 6-4 etc, which means their manager is odds on for the chop. It's not a major thing, it's just really irritating not knowing what they mean. If SI said they were slightly off and not working 100% I wouldn't even be bothered, certainly not as bothered as I am by not understanding their purpose Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wazza Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 You understand it correctly, wazza, and i've seen a number of instances similar to yours. Me being untouchable at lowly Olhanense and listed as 5,000-1 for Fulham, but 6-4 for Liverpool. Same goes for odds of being sacked, at the very start of the game the top teams are 6-4 etc, which means their manager is odds on for the chop.It's not a major thing, it's just really irritating not knowing what they mean. If SI said they were slightly off and not working 100% I wouldn't even be bothered, certainly not as bothered as I am by not understanding their purpose I've copied my post in the bugs forum as even though I dont do alot of betting I had a look at a couple of betting sites to explain how odds and payments are made as I thought it was wrong but wasn't 100% until I checked - If it is for you to become the next manager it is the wrong way round imo from what I understand Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
@ChrisLewis_1994 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Looking at Miles's twitter account, he replied to a few different tweets about the odds, saying that those odds shouldn't be on the job security page, they will be removed for the the full release. They are a "Weird mismash of different odds." Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babak G Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Thought so. Now that makes sense that there was no sense to be made whatsoever from those numbers. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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