January drop off

[Guest]

Hunch says that the AI will have learnt nothing from your first encounter, the English cup competitions are horribly broken & this is made even more obvious as the AI finds it very difficult to simulate squad rotation,

[heathxxx]

As well as squad rotation, we also come back to the situation with reputation again. Difficult to believe (unbelievable though Altrincham facing Man Utd in the Q/F of the cup is), it's highly unlikely that in reality, United would field so many untried youngsters.

That said, anything we do versus the AI teams is =/= unreality. AI vs. AI is perhaps more balanced?

[Guest]

As an outsider looking in reputation is IMHO at the heart of many problems currently hampering FM.

Many iterations ago the system provided balance to the game but as more layers have been added the system has become the dominating aspect of the game & appears to be the key value in any calculation regardless of whether it is intended to be, the AI is simply incapable of looking beyond reputation whereas we can, sometimes this is a distinct advantage & other times it goes against us despite logic saying it shouldn't

The key aspect of this thread is how the AI appears to use reputation to determine its tactical approach & that it creates an unrealistic, almost instant universal shift in playing style the moment the game recognises that a team is performing far beyond their initial expectations & reputation.

[milnerpoint]

The key aspect of this thread is how the AI uses reputation to determine its tactical approach & that it creates an unrealistic, almost instant universal shift in playing style the moment the game recognises that a team is performing far beyond their initial expectations & reputation.

But it doesnt, you make it sound like the AI uses two options A and B, A being attacking, B defensive and as soon as jan hits and you have played well it instantly switches to B against you from that point onwards, its not like that at all. I very rarely suffere from any second half of the season problems. The AI does not suddenly change everything it is doing against you in January if your plaing well, it really doesnt.

[Guest]

But it doesnt, you make it sound like the AI uses two options A and B, A being attacking, B defensive and as soon as jan hits and you have played well it instantly switches to B against you from that point onwards, its not like that at all. I very rarely suffere from any second half of the season problems. The AI does not suddenly change everything it is doing against you in January if your plaing well, it really doesnt.

Stop trying to claim that I am stating anything as fact, the use of 'appears' should indicate that my statement is a hypothesis rather than any all knowing statement confirming the existence of a pre-determined January slump & stop with the counter argument as being fact (unless you're actively involved in the coding of the AI), the thread exists because there is a perception that this is happening & it is worth investigating purely on that basis alone.

So long as people do not assume that because something is being discussed it must exist then anything that people have to say on the subject can be of value & help identify inherent weaknesses in the game.

Without questions or discussion we do not advance knowledge or ability.

[Moonshine]

I feel that the post-Chritmas slump is indeed an occurence in FM, particularly, as Barside says, in those that exceed expectations pre-Christmas. Looking back at my 7 seasons this time out, and producing some facts (looking purely at League Games) we get:

2011/2012: Lledia Esportieu, Spanish B3.

Predicted 5th

Position after 19 games (half the season): 6th

Final Position: 9th

Pre Jan 1st: 9W, 4D, 6L Pts 31, Points-per-game: 1.63

Post Jan 1st: 8W ,3D, 8L Pts 27, PPG: 1.42

Jan/Feb Form: 3W 3D 2L PPG: 1.5

2012/2013: Lleida Esportiu, Spanish B2

Predicted 12th

Position After 19 games: 5th

Final Position: 3rd

Pre Jan 1: 11W 0D 7L Pts 33, PPG: 1.83

Post Jan 1: 10W 7D 3L Pts 37, PPG: 1.85 (2 more games)

Jan/Feb form: 3W 2D 3L PPG: 1.38

2013/2014: Lleida Esportiu, Spanish B2

Predicted 4th

Position after 19 games: 2nd

Final Position: 1st

Pre Jan 1: 11W 5D 1L Pts 38, PPG: 2.24

Post Jan 1:12W 6D 3L Pts 42, PPG: 2.00 (4 more games)

Jan/Feb form: 4W 3D L2 PPG: 1.67

Looking at Lleida, we get a slight difference in performance between the start ad end of a season, played predominantly using the same tactics for each match (yes yes, I know. In the season we overachieved the most versus our expectations (2012/13, 7 places above media prediction at halfway), we achieved 2.3 pts more (weighted) in the second half than the first half.

Ignoring 2014/15, as I moved clubs, we now get:

2015/16: Morton, Scottish D1

Predicted 9th

Position after 18 games: 3rd

Final Position: 1st

Pre jan 1: 11W 2D 8L Pts 35, PPG: 1.67

Post Jan 1: 8W 5D 2L Pts 29, PG: 1.93 (6 less games)

Jan/Feb Form: 3W 3D 1L PPG: 1.71

Here we see a total reversal, with me picking up many more points after January.

The final season analysis will be again 2 years later, as I once more moved clubs:

2017/2018, Sheffield Wedsnesday, English Championship:

Prediction 14th

Position After 23 Games: 8th

Final Position: 2nd

Pre Jan 1: 11W 8D 5L Pts 41, PPG: 1.71

Post Jan 1: 15W 4D 3L Pts 49, PPG: 2.23 (2 less games)

Jan/Feb Form: 5W 2D 2L PPG: 1.89

Once again, we see that where I most overachieve, I pick up more points in the second half of the season than the first. All three times where I've been predicted middle to bottom, with all three clubs and finished in the top 3 (Lleida 12/13, Morton 14/15 and Wednesday 17/18) we have achieved significantly better, despite playing above expectations. In the Championship, I can put this down to my position (8th) relative to my predicted position, meaning teams will continue to play the same against me. The others I'm unsure as to how to explain.

However, in all bar the final season (where my expectations match my position), we see either a drop or a statistically irrelevant (0.05PTS in 15/16) rise (essentially remaining steady) in the January/February months. This is particularly relevant if we look at a newly promoted side, such as Morton in 16/17, or Wednesday in 18/19:

Morton, SPL, 2016/17:

Pre Jan1: 5W, 4D, 11L PPG: 0.95

Post Jan1: 3W 1D 12L PPG: 0.63

Jan/Feb: 1W 0D 7L PPG: 0.38

Wednesday, EPL, 2018/19:

Pre Jan 1: 7W, 3D, 10L PPG: 1.20

Jan/Feb Form (up to 17th Feb, now): 0W, 1D, 4L PPG: 0.20

There may be a case...

[Ellisio]

I'm stunned. For the first time in 5 seasons morale has NOT dropped and I'm actually doing well. Won the World Club Cup and form has continued in the league. I have not done anything different to previous seasons which makes me think that reputation does play a HUGE part in this.

In previous seasons I was not expected to win the league, yet was consistently in 1st or 2nd spot come January. The difference now is, last year I won the Champions League, League Cup and Premiership and therefore now am EXPECTED to challenge this year. Plus, at the end of last season the club was taken over by a very ambitious businessman who demanded we win the league this year!