World Cup Betting Thread

[TigerChris]

Well decided there'll probably end up being a few on here that will place bets, so easier to have it all in one thread. Picked out some Ante Post odds for you all to scout over:

Golden Boot:

Wayne Rooney (England) 11.00 
David Villa (Spain) 11.00 
Leo Messi (Argentina) 11.00 
Fernando Torres (Spain) 12.00 
Clemente Luis Fabiano (Brazil) 13.00 
Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) 19.00 
Gonzalo Higuain (Argentina) 21.00 
Didier Drogba (Ivory Coast) 23.00 
Sergio Aguero (Argentina) 26.00 
Nilmar (Brazil) 26.00 
Miroslav Klose (Germany) 26.00 
Vincenzo Iaquinta (Italy) 26.00 
Thierry Henry (France) 26.00 
Ricardo Kaka (Brazil) 34.00 
Alberto Gilardino (Italy) 34.00 
Jermain Defoe (England) 34.00 
Da Silva Liedson (Portugal) 34.00 
Samuel Eto'o (Cameroon) 34.00 
Karim Benzema (France) 34.00 
Robin Van Persie (Holland) 34.00 
Alexandre Pato (Brazil) 34.00 
Nicolas Anelka (France) 34.00 
De Souza Robinho (Brazil) 41.00 
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (Holland) 41.00 
Mario Gomez (Germany) 41.00 
Daniel Guiza (Spain) 41.00 
Luis Suarez (Uruguay) 51.00 
Antonio Di Natale (Italy) 51.00 
Carlos Tevez (Argentina) 51.00 
Frank Lampard (England) 51.00 
Giuseppe Rossi (Italy) 51.00 
Lukas Podolski (Germany) 51.00 
Andre Pierre Gignac (France) 51.00 
Javier Hernandez (Mexico) 51.00 
Humberto Suazo (Chile) 67.00 
Steven Gerrard (England) 67.00 
Michael Ballack (Germany) 67.00 
Dirk Kuyt (Holland) 67.00 
Marko Pantelic (Serbia) 67.00 
Diego Forlan (Uruguay) 67.00 
Stefan Kiessling (Germany) 67.00 
Arjen Robben (Holland) 81.00 
Nicklas Bendtner (Denmark) 81.00 
Roque Santa Cruz (Paraguay) 81.00 
Leite Adriano (Brazil) 81.00 
Landon Donovan (USA) 101.00 
Benedict McCarthy (South Africa) 101.00 
Peter Crouch (England) 101.00 
Salvador Cabanas (Paraguay) 101.00 
Oscar Cardozo (Paraguay) 101.00 
Omar Bravo (Mexico) 101.00 
Obafemi Martins (Nigeria) 101.00 
Ikechukwu Uche (Nigeria) 101.00 
Carlos Vela (Mexico) 126.00 
Milan Jovanovic (Serbia) 126.00 
Theofanis Gekas (Greece) 151.00 
Robert Vittek (Slovakia) 151.00 
Alexander Frei (Switzerland) 151.00 
Zlatko Dedic (Slovenia) 151.00 
Jon Dahl Tomasson (Denmark) 151.00 
Eddie Johnson (USA) 151.00 
Matthew Amoah (Ghana) 151.00 
Nikola Zigic (Serbia) 151.00 
Shinji Okazaki (Japan) 176.00 
Marco Streller (Switzerland) 176.00 
Bernard Parker (South Africa) 201.00 
Keiji Tamada (Japan) 201.00 
Scott McDonald (Australia) 201.00 
Tim Cahill (Australia) 301.00 
Christopher Killen (New Zealand) 351.00 
Rory Fallon (New Zealand) 401.00 
 Others On Request

Win Outright:

Spain 5.00 
Brazil 6.00 
England 6.50 
Argentina 9.00 
Italy 13.00 
Germany 13.00 
Holland 13.00 
France 19.00 
Portugal 26.00
Ivory Coast 26.00 
Ghana 67.00 
Paraguay 67.00 
Chile 67.00 
Serbia 67.00 
Mexico 67.00
USA 81.00
Cameroon 81.00 
Uruguay 101.00 
Greece 101.00 
Denmark 101.00 
Australia 126.00 
Nigeria 126.00 
South Africa 126.00 
Switzerland 151.00 
Slovenia 201.00 
Slovakia 201.00 
Japan 251.00 
South Korea 251.00 
Algeria 351.00 
Honduras 1001.00 
North Korea 1501.00 
New Zealand 2001.00

Winner and Top Goal Scorer:

England & Wayne Rooney 26.00 
Spain & David Villa 26.00 
Brazil & Clemente Luis Fabiano 26.00 
Spain & Fernando Torres 26.00 
Argentina & Leo Messi 34.00 
Brazil & Alexandre Pato 51.00 
Argentina & Gonzalo Higuain 51.00 
Argentina & Sergio Aguero 67.00 
Brazil & Honorato da Silva Nilmar 67.00 
Portugal & Cristiano Ronaldo 81.00 
Italy & Alberto Gilardino 81.00 
Brazil & Ricardo Kaka 81.00 
Holland & Robin Van Persie 81.00 
England & Jermain Defoe 81.00 
Germany & Miroslav Klose 101.00 
France & Thierry Henry 101.00 
Germany & Mario Gomez 101.00 
France & Nicolas Anelka 151.00 
England & Frank Lampard 151.00 
Cameroon & Samuel Eto'o 151.00 
England & Steven Gerrard 176.00 
France & Karim Benzema 176.00 
England & Peter Crouch 176.00 
Holland & Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 201.00 
Italy & Vincenzo Iaquinta 201.00 
Italy & Antonio Di Natale 201.00

Had a decent time at Euro 2008, picking both Spain and Villa to be winners and top goal scorer. Also had a win on a Germany 2-1 and Podolski scoring first bet against someone too.

OVer to you lot with your ideas!

[Philip Rolfe]

I had a ridiculously good streak of FGS betting in Euro 2008, don't expect to come close to matching it.

[Glenn Wakeford]

Nicklas Bendtner (Denmark) 81.00

Value. 9 goals in 11 EPL. Basically got the award in the bag already.

[Dale Gribble]

No idea why Jermain Defoe is rated much higher than Van Persie or Tevez for the golden boot. Also England being 3rd most likely to win is hilarious. If I were a bookies I'd stick England down at 13.00 at least so everyone bets at my place, then reap in the money when everyone sticks a cheeky tenner on England winning when barring a miracle it won't happen.

In terms of top goalscorer, Italy's and Brazil's candidates as well as C Ronaldo are probably a good shout given that they have New Zealand and North Korea in their groups, given that not many games are played in the World Cup and the top goalscorer never gets too much, wouldn't be totally unusual to see one player smash 4 past a crap team in the group stage and then not have to do much for the rest of the tournament to win it.

[TigerChris]

No idea why Jermain Defoe is rated much higher than Van Persie or Tevez for the golden boot. Also England being 3rd most likely to win is hilarious. If I were a bookies I'd stick England down at 13.00 at least so everyone bets at my place, then reap in the money when everyone sticks a cheeky tenner on England winning when barring a miracle it won't happen.

As others said in the other thread, Tevez i can understand. Not a great scoring record for Argentina, and may not even start for them.

[20LEGEND]

Am on Spain to win.

Back winners.

[Chase Failey]

backed usa and the aussies a few months ago, will be looking to lay off for a small profit should they get through the group stages.

[BobMUFC08]

Only bet for me so far is Serbia to qualify from their group @evens, may put some more into it next week as it's now 2.25 on VC

[PMLF]

I doubt the top goalscorer will come from the champion, it only happened 4 times or so.

Surprising that Brazil + Robinho isn't there, he was top goalscorer of Copa América 2007 with 6 goals in 6 games and will be a first teamer (even though Nilmar is a better player IMO), so he has as much as a good chance of finishing as top goalscorer as Luís Fabiano or Kaká (to be more specific I would guess he has more than pubalgic man Kaká and less than Luís Fabiano).

[tcoleman1]

Serbia could be a good bet. They are a better team than people take them for, they did top the group ahead of France, who if we all remember, shouldn't be here

[Maccers]

Thinking of sticking a £5 on Germany at 13/1.

[football_master_94]

Thinking to put a £5 on Serbia to the QF or at a push Semis

[Maccers]

Serbia could be a good bet. They are a better team than people take them for, they did top the group ahead of France, who if we all remember, shouldn't be here

Only a cheat if you get caught.

I realise Henry got by 100000000000001 people, but not the ref.

[Glenn Wakeford]

Surprising that Brazil + Robinho isn't there, he was top goalscorer of Copa América 2007 with 6 goals in 6 games and will be a first teamer (even though Nilmar is a better player IMO), so he has as much as a good chance of finishing as top goalscorer as Luís Fabiano or Kaká (to be more specific I would guess he has more than pubalgic man Kaká and less than Luís Fabiano).

I don't know. It's abroad and will be cold at some games. Will he be bothered?

[PaulHartman71]

I'm going to put 10 quid on Argentina winning with Messi top scorer, pretty good odds really.

[Phat Phish]

yeah considering messi only has 13 international goals to his name

[Puevlo]

Golden Boot:

Scott McDonald (Australia) 201.00

Tim Cahill (Australia) 301.00

McDonald - Australia 15(0)

Cahill - Australia 37(19)

:o

[Phat Phish]

also you get much better odds doing, for example, rooney and england win as a double than those other odds given?

[20LEGEND]

also you get much better odds doing, for example, rooney and england win as a double than those other odds given?

Related contingencies surely?

If England win it makes Rooney winning the golden boot more likely so you can't bet on them in a double.

[G-Man11]

Golden Boot:

Scott McDonald (Australia) 201.00

Tim Cahill (Australia) 301.00

McDonald - Australia 15(0)

Cahill - Australia 37(19)

:o

Yeah I couldn't beleive that when I saw it myself . Personally hoping McDonald doesn't get near the first 11 tbh.

[Raid]

Anyone who took Ned's tip to back Chile and lay off when they've qualified will be satisfied.

Been topping up on Spain to win it for a while.

[chopra_hill]

Like the look of Landon Donovan at 100/1 ew

Will back spain heavily to win it then pick an outsider nearer the time for an added bit of interest.

and villa/spain double.

[BobMUFC08]

Got the majority of my bets mapped out now, get a nice bonus from work this week that can go towards it and plan to top up twice more before the WC starts. So far I'm on 'teams to qualify from group', 'top gs', 'England stage of elimination' and 'wc winner'. Been looking at 'name the finalists' market as well, really really fancy a Spain v Brazil final @12.00:D

[lutontown1991]

Germany to reach the final @ 11/2

[Lermon]

I'm starting to look at the first games-which is 2 weeks on Friday. Anyway my opinions.

Friday

11 Jun 15:00 South Africa v Mexico 7/4 9/4 13/8

- I think South Africa are a non-entity but (1) being the first game, (2) being hosts and (3) playing Mexico who seemed to have a suspect defence against England- its hard to call. I reckon possibly a draw.

11 Jun 19:30 Uruguay v France 3/1 9/4 1/1

-France will play it tight, but Uruguay being a bit of unknown variable to France may surprise

Saturday

12 Jun 12:30 South Korea v Greece 21/10 11/5 11/8

-I can't see anyone other than Greece winning this, Otto will have fully prepared his squad.

12 Jun 15:00 Argentina v Nigeria 8/15 14/5 6/1

-Surely ludicrous odds for Nigeria. Argentina may have amazing players but under Maradona? All depends how organized Nigeria are and how well they would be able to score- Argentina shouldn't have any problems scoring..

12 Jun 19:30 England v USA 1/2 10/3 11/2

-I'm staying far away from betting on this- the USA in the confederations surprised but it did take 4 or so matches for them to 'warm-up' to that. Still 1/2 doesn't look great odds for England.

Sunday

13 Jun 12:30 Algeria v Slovenia 11/5 9/4 13/10

-I quite like Algeria but should be a fierce contest.

13 Jun 15:00 Germany v Australia 1/2 3/1 6/1

-er Germany, undeniably good at tournaments, Australia just don't have the same quality.

13 Jun 19:30 Serbia v Ghana 6/5 9/4 12/5

-pass, I reckon Serbia but I'm going by each qualifying record.

Interesting in hearing other people's opinions on these matches.

[JamesMathews]

Used a free bet from Bluesquare for £11. Was going to go for Ivory Coast but realised Sven is managing them, so went with Holland. Will probably do a cheeky lay if they get through the group...

[damienroden]

Betting noob, never seen odds represented as one number, how do you work them out?

[Blanco]

These are much easier - if you put a pound on, you get whatever the number is back

[Philip Rolfe]

I'm starting to look at the first games-which is 2 weeks on Friday. Anyway my opinions.

Friday

11 Jun 15:00 South Africa v Mexico 7/4 9/4 13/8

- I think South Africa are a non-entity but (1) being the first game, (2) being hosts and (3) playing Mexico who seemed to have a suspect defence against England- its hard to call. I reckon possibly a draw.

Under 2.5 goals, edge to South Africa for me but then I'm in a minority who isn't impressed with Mexico. So they had a load of possession at Wembley, what did they do with it? They've had unconvincing wins over Angola and Chile, drawn with Ecuador and lost to England and Holland this month, struggling for goals (5 in 6) and I favour RSA to edge it.

11 Jun 19:30 Uruguay v France 3/1 9/4 1/1

-France will play it tight, but Uruguay being a bit of unknown variable to France may surprise

France to win this, but it'll be close.

Saturday

12 Jun 12:30 South Korea v Greece 21/10 11/5 11/8

-I can't see anyone other than Greece winning this, Otto will have fully prepared his squad.

On the contrary, South Korea are a better side for me. In-form, picking players who should be picked, the complete opposite to Greece.

12 Jun 15:00 Argentina v Nigeria 8/15 14/5 6/1

-Surely ludicrous odds for Nigeria. Argentina may have amazing players but under Maradona? All depends how organized Nigeria are and how well they would be able to score- Argentina shouldn't have any problems scoring..

For all Argentina's failings, Nigeria aren't very good.

12 Jun 19:30 England v USA 1/2 10/3 11/2

-I'm staying far away from betting on this- the USA in the confederations surprised but it did take 4 or so matches for them to 'warm-up' to that. Still 1/2 doesn't look great odds for England.

Don't buy into the US being as strong as people are pointing out myself. Second rate to England all over the pitch.

Sunday

13 Jun 12:30 Algeria v Slovenia 11/5 9/4 13/10

-I quite like Algeria but should be a fierce contest.

Flip a coin.

13 Jun 15:00 Germany v Australia 1/2 3/1 6/1

-er Germany, undeniably good at tournaments, Australia just don't have the same quality.

Germany should stroll it.

13 Jun 19:30 Serbia v Ghana 6/5 9/4 12/5

-pass, I reckon Serbia but I'm going by each qualifying record.

Serbia the better team with a much better defence and an abundance of midfield options.

[Lermon]

ah interesting reply. Would you say South Korea was the best of the bunch of the Asian teams then?

[Samamatara]

right now I'd say south korea is the best, debatable with australia also being pretty good but form wise, korea edges it. and japan is just out of sorts at the moment.

i have no idea about the greece team, but if they're a solid defense oriented team it would worry me because we run out of ideas pretty quickly if we get shut down offensively.

[Samamatara]

also one strong bet I will probably get on is over 2.5 or 3.5 in the Argentina vs Nigeria game, pretty obvious reasons, if I was to bet a big stake to get a free bet or something that would be my bet

[Qolumbo]

Australia, South Korea and Japan are pretty much equal in my opinion, but the Koreans have an easier group than the others.

I'm going to wait until after all the friendlies before making any bets. Even though they are mostly meaningless, you still get some information about the form of the teams.

[Macca_SAFC]

Gone for one small bet to kick off, Anelka 80/1 for golden boot at bwin.

Finish exams tomorrow, will look at the rest then.

[Marquez]

South Korea should overwhelm Greece, Greece haven't had a victory in 2010 yet. I'm also thinking of going for matches gone extra time 4.5 under

[GillsMan]

I'm still haunted by my Euro 2008 syndicate bet of Kuyt + 3-1 when Holland played France at 350/1. Kuyt scored first, France equalised, Holland went 2-1 up then 3-1 up until 90+4 in the game when Sneijder scored to make it 4-1. Hideous.

[Hom3r]

I went for Di Natale for the golden boot at 50/1. Seemed incredibly high as I thought he was a starter and they have New Zealand in the group. Has he been dropped or something?

[pago]

i put on a couple of golden boot bets today.

£5 van persie @ 16 ish - holland have a reasonably weak group and should win it. they then play runners up in italy's group who should also be weak. and group stages/last 16 is likely to be where the golden boot will be won i reckon. hopefully he will play as the main striker, and possibly be on freekicks (although snjeider may contest those with him).

£5 Gilardino @ 50 - same reasons as above. italy dont normally score that many goals so that's a worry. plus they lost to mexico tonight which doesnt bode well. also not sure if he will be starting and i was wondering why his odds were so long. i think he was favourite of the italy players though. and 50 seems massive for a team that should do quite well. i am expecting someone to point something out to me now that will explain teh long odds!

£2 Crouch @50 - just a cheeky couple of quid. he's got a good goal scoring record for england and if he plays against the weaker teams could probably get a few. and i know numbers dont mean much but he got the no.9 ahead of heskey, so he could well start if capello goes 2 up.

and the over 2.5 in the argie-nigeria match is just under evens. which seems quite good to me (the over 3.5 was better odds obviously but i cant remember what exactly). havent bet on this though.

[pago]

hmmm, seems di natale for italy was top scorer in serie A. he was 60s on betfair. im hoping he will play more on the wing though.

[Bren24]

Hello, got sent a promo email from centrebet.

Place a £20 bet and get a free bet for every goal my chosen team scores in the group matches (Max of 3 per game btw).

Depending on the team I choose, the value of the free bet changes, so I was hoping you could help me choose who to pick.

£5 free bet:

Spain, Brazil, England, Argentina, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, France, Portugal

£7 Free bet:

Cote Divore ???, Chile, Ghana, Mexico, Serbia, Australia, Paraguay, USA, Denmark

£10 free bet:

Greece, Nigeria, South Africa, Uruguay, Cameroon, Switzerland, Japan, Slovakia, Slovenia

£15 free bet:

south korea, algeria, honduras, korea dpr, new zealand

Soooo. Who should I choose for maximum value? I was thinking spain/holland have fairly easy groups and are likely to score a lot. But then USA should also really be qualifying from the group, so would have to score at least a few to do that. Hmmmmm.

Help me with the OTF Wisdom

[Qolumbo]

I'd go with South Korea. I think it's unlikely that the top teams would score three times as much when restricted to three goals per game.

Or Honduras with similar reasons.

[mkr2010]

All ive got up to now is some on spain and a few small FGS bets, main bet ive put on up to now is this.

Brazil/Italy/England/Spain/Holland/Serbia/Mexico To all qualify thru groups at around 5/1 (this was a few weeks ago maybe a lil shorter now)

Also a few group forcasts are stupid odds, granted the most likely wont hit, but at 3000/1 for favs, its worth a quid

1st - France 2nd - Mexico @ 5.00

1st - Argentina 2nd - Nigeria @ 3.00

1st - England 2nd - USA @ 2.87

1st - Germany 2nd - Serbia @ 4.00

1st - Holland 2nd - Cameroon @ 3.50

1st - Italy 2nd - Paraguay @ 2.37

1st - Spain 2nd - Chile @ 2.10

3100/1 on that one

1st - Argentina 2nd - Nigeria @ 3.00

1st - England 2nd - USA @ 2.87

1st - Germany 2nd - Serbia @ 4.00

1st - Holland 2nd - Cameroon @ 3.50

1st - Italy 2nd - Paraguay @ 2.37

1st - Spain 2nd - Chile @ 2.10

500/1 on that with the more dodgy groups not included

Anything could happen but covering a few angles at those odds is worth a couple quid to keep some interest if nothin else

[Pukey]

Is Milito a starter for Argentina?

[Junkhead]

Just had £5 on Argentina - Brazil final @ 20/1 on bet 365 which I thought was quite nice, also, in reference to the above, have just put on the below group bets;

1st - 2nd

Mexico - Uruguay

Argentina - South Korea

England - Algeria

Germany - Serbia

Holland - Cameroon

Italy - Paraguay

Brazil - Portugal

Spain - Chile

£1 = £66,797.52

1st - 2nd

France - Uruguay

Argentina - Greece

England - USA

Germany - Ghana

Holland - Cameroon

Italy - Slovakia

Brazil - Portugal

Spain - Switzerland

£2.00 - £90,402.02

Also, although I doubt bany will fancy it, just whacked a quid on the below double;

South Africa 1-1 Mexico

Forlan 1st Goal & Uraguay 2-1

£1 = £365

[Calypso]

betting on no african or asian teams to progress past the group stage.

[CircusCarnie]

Got a £25 free bet to use. Thinking of putting it on top scorer for tournament. Villa is the obvious choice with a relative weak group but only 9/1. Di Natale had a good season but unsure if he's a starter for Italy, avail around 40's. Also think to possibly go with someone like Santa Cruz or Cardoza for Paraguay. In a weak group and they could get a few against New Zealand, Italy are slow starters so also a chance they could top the group for an easier last 16 tie.

Suggestions?

[dudge7]

Just set up an epic coupon over the first six days which will net me £150k for 50p

Put a fiver on Higuain being top scorer ages ago, can't remember the odds then.

[Samamatara]

Got a £25 free bet to use. Thinking of putting it on top scorer for tournament. Villa is the obvious choice with a relative weak group but only 9/1. Di Natale had a good season but unsure if he's a starter for Italy, avail around 40's. Also think to possibly go with someone like Santa Cruz or Cardoza for Paraguay. In a weak group and they could get a few against New Zealand, Italy are slow starters so also a chance they could top the group for an easier last 16 tie.

Suggestions?

i really like van persie right now.

he seems to be making up for the lost time injured this season, on fire

[tony_cfc]

I had a few quid on the qualifiers from some the groups in Euro2008 and won over £100. Trying my luck again this time and just done an accy of forecasts for the groups with odds of over 15000/1 .

[Lermon]

I think theres some good odds for winner and team to bottom the group on Betfair. Because its obviously not going to go as predicted- there is always shocks- its just wondering who that will be..

I mean on Betfair:

These odds for winner of their groups:

France: 2.48

Mexico: 3.95

Uruguay 4.6

South Africa 7.4

Argentina 1.48

Nigeria 6.6

Greece 9.6

South Korea 13

England 1.41

USA 5.7

Slovenia 13

Algeria 22

Germany 1.95

Serbia 4.2

Ghana 6.6

Australia 9.8

Netherlands 1.59

Denmark 5.7

Cameroon 6.4

Japan 20

Italy 1.63

Paraguay 4

Slovakia 7.6

New Zealand 70

Brazil 1.59

Portugal 4.5

Ivory Coast 6.6

North Korea 130

Spain 1.28

Chile 7

Switzerland 14

Honduras 60

Looking here Euro 2008- Germany came second in their group behind Croatia and went to the final:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2008