Transfer issue - AI clubs buying on the cheap + valuation question

Hi all

A couple of issues that I saw recently that I'd like your thoughts on:

- I bid for someone in Jan and was quoted an astronomical £20m because the selling club clearly didnt wanna sell. West Ham come along in January (not deadline day) and buy him for £4m....slightly pissed off at that

- Two GKs in my squad have extremely similar stats (at work so can't post but can provide later) yet one in my eyes who is slightly better is valued at 650k, and the other is at 4.2m

The keeper valued at 650k is Estanislao Marcellan and the 4.2m player I can't remember, but he is rated as half a star below Marcellan. Such a discrepancy in value, is that purely down to hidden attributes? They are both 24 and I signed both in the summer - so the disrepancy isnt age or contract related.

They are both aged 24 and have 3 years left on their contracts. Why such a discrepancy?

I bid for someone in Jan and was quoted an astronomical £20m because the selling club clearly didnt wanna sell. West Ham come along in January (not deadline day) and buy him for £4m....slightly pissed off at that

The most likely scenario is that your bid set in motion a level of player unhappiness & when West Ham came in for the keeper the club accepted the offer because they were resigned to losing the player, there are other possibilities but you will need to provide more information on all the clubs & persons involved..

- Two GKs in my squad have extremely similar stats (at work so can't post but can provide later) yet one in my eyes who is slightly better is valued at 650k, and the other is at 4.2m

The keeper valued at 650k is Estanislao Marcellan and the 4.2m player I can't remember, but he is rated as half a star below Marcellan. Such a discrepancy in value, is that purely down to hidden attributes? They are both 24 and I signed both in the summer - so the disrepancy isnt age or contract related.

They are both aged 24 and have 3 years left on their contracts. Why such a discrepancy?

Contract terms are important & I would expect the keeper with the higher listed value to have a much higher value contract, other considerations will be their reputation, nationality & perceived current & potential ability.

You also need to understand that the listed value is largely irrelevant & as a general rule is best ignored, a player's market value is only what another club will pay & what you're seeing on their profile is what they are worth to your club's accountants.

cheers barside

Reputation within the world would play a role too.

I'm not one to complain about transfer activity, but something similar happened to me in a save.

I made a sizeable bid for a player. My scouts had said that the team was unlikely to sell. I knew this going in and made incremental offers up to double his market value. All rejected.

Now I didn't expect this to work, but was hoping that it would unsettle him and they'd come down on the price. So I was monitoring his morale description on a daily basis. It remained at superb or fairly good with no mention of the player wanting a move. In came a big club with a bid LESS than his market value and it was accepted. What's the logic behind this?

I'm not one to complain about transfer activity, but something similar happened to me in a save.

I made a sizeable bid for a player. My scouts had said that the team was unlikely to sell. I knew this going in and made incremental offers up to double his market value. All rejected.

Now I didn't expect this to work, but was hoping that it would unsettle him and they'd come down on the price. So I was monitoring his morale description on a daily basis. It remained at superb or fairly good with no mention of the player wanting a move. In came a big club with a bid LESS than his market value and it was accepted. What's the logic behind this?

This happened to me as well. A bid from an AI team at €4,5M was accepted, while I had a bid of up to €30M (where I stopped as I felt miffed) rejected.

Bigger teams money is worth more than smaller teams money of course. No issue here.

Bigger teams money is worth more than smaller teams money of course. No issue here.

Can't tell if sarcasm?

Bigger teams money is worth more than smaller teams money of course. No issue here.

It's not that the money's worth more. It's that there's more incentive to sell if a player wants to move.

Let's say I'm managing Everton and Lukaku is talking about leaving. With a new tycoon owner, Barnsley turn up and offer £40m. I want Lukaku to stay, and he does not particularly want to move to Barnsley - so obviously the bid is rejected.

Later, an offer comes in of £30m from Manchester City. Lukaku very much wants to leave, and I know that if I refuse to do so he may well be able to turn the squad against me. I decide to negotiate and eventually sell him for £35m.

If Barsnley came back in and offerred £40m again, I'd accept, but at this stage users managing Barnsley have normally given up and pulled out of the talks. And in any case Lukaku will choose City (and throw a strop if I don't let him), so there's little point in me pushing it. It looks as though I've sold him for £5m less than I could have done, but in reality there was never really much option.

It's not that the money's worth more. It's that there's more incentive to sell if a player wants to move.

Let's say I'm managing Everton and Lukaku is talking about leaving. With a new tycoon owner, Barnsley turn up and offer £40m. I want Lukaku to stay, and he does not particularly want to move to Barnsley - so obviously the bid is rejected.

Later, an offer comes in of £30m from Manchester City. Lukaku very much wants to leave, and I know that if I refuse to do so he may well be able to turn the squad against me. I decide to negotiate and eventually sell him for £35m.

If Barsnley came back in and offerred £40m again, I'd accept, but at this stage users managing Barnsley have normally given up and pulled out of the talks. And in any case Lukaku will choose City (and throw a strop if I don't let him), so there's little point in me pushing it. It looks as though I've sold him for £5m less than I could have done, but in reality there was never really much option.

not really the same scenario though. I'll give my exact example, although funnily enough I forgot which player it was for. Let's say Daniele Rugani.

I was playing as Liverpool. His market value was something like 30 million. I bid 30m, then continued to increase until I was bidding up to 65m (US dollars) and they still wouldn't accept.

I didn't expect this to work. I know when a player has the "club unlikely to want to sell player" tag, teams will ask for ludicrous amounts. I think their counter offers were in the 200 million plus range.

So I monitored his morale daily to see if it changed. There was no change and he remained happy at his club. Then Man Utd swoop in and buy him for I think it was 35-40m (USD). There is no explanation I can think of where this would make sense. He wasn't unsettled at the club.

The only thing I can think of is that when I came in as Liverpool he didn't care that my offer was rejected. But when Man Utd. came in maybe he "instantly" was unsettled at his team rejecting it? Like maybe it wouldn't show in his information screen, and the club decided right then and there to let him go.

Barring that scenario, there's no good explanation

not really the same scenario though. I'll give my exact example, although funnily enough I forgot which player it was for. Let's say Daniele Rugani.

I was playing as Liverpool. His market value was something like 30 million. I bid 30m, then continued to increase until I was bidding up to 65m (US dollars) and they still wouldn't accept.

I didn't expect this to work. I know when a player has the "club unlikely to want to sell player" tag, teams will ask for ludicrous amounts. I think their counter offers were in the 200 million plus range.

So I monitored his morale daily to see if it changed. There was no change and he remained happy at his club. Then Man Utd swoop in and buy him for I think it was 35-40m (USD). There is no explanation I can think of where this would make sense. He wasn't unsettled at the club.

The only thing I can think of is that when I came in as Liverpool he didn't care that my offer was rejected. But when Man Utd. came in maybe he "instantly" was unsettled at his team rejecting it? Like maybe it wouldn't show in his information screen, and the club decided right then and there to let him go.

Barring that scenario, there's no good explanation

That's a very plausible explanation. Not as extreme as my example of course, but Manchester United do have a much higher reputation and recent success than Liverpool at the start of the game. Don't know what's happened in your save, but unless Liverpool have been massively successful United a probably still a more attractive destination.

Its a bug, i had this here as well. http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/450122-Having-to-offer-more-than-the-AI-to-get-bids-accepted

Try reporting there as its very annoying because the AI will cheat players out of you.

If this made sense you should bid 40 mill, let them reject it, make player unhappy and unsettled, go back in with 4mil, just like real negotiating. Been like this for years, but its defended every year which probably explains why.

The AI know when to bid and how much, when we bid they arent for sale, they dont care about the money, the AI simply doesnt make a bid. The AI bids when they know they can buy them and they will sell, and at the sensible price they will sell at. Thats why they make poor bids for your players, they dont know with a human. I guess the terrible bids they give a human is because thats what the AI would sell them for cos they wont value the player like we do. Probably your star player would be in the reserves if the AI was controlling them.

Is there anything I can learn from this discussion that would help me understand how to get ANY of my players sold? With a promoted club and settling on a tactic, I have four or so players who each are said to be "good players for most Championship sides," yet round after round of offers that decline in asking price go unanswered. Eventually, I have players who would probably jump at the chance to start for a Championship side who are going to rot on the bench or be let go on free transfers because seemingly nobody is interested in players.

Is there some strategy I should be using to entice offers?

There is no set strategy other than not signing players to lengthy contracts if your aim is to secure promotion & you're not sure if those players are good enough for the higher level.

If the players do not want to go back to the Championship then clubs at that level will not bid for them & if clubs at that level are not looking to sign players in the position they play they will not bid for them, all you can do is transfer/loan list the players & wait for them to change their mind on dropping back down, run out their contract or for clubs to identify a gap in their squad that can be filled by one of your unwanted players & hope they have the finances to strike up a deal with you & the player

Is there anything I can learn from this discussion that would help me understand how to get ANY of my players sold? With a promoted club and settling on a tactic, I have four or so players who each are said to be "good players for most Championship sides," yet round after round of offers that decline in asking price go unanswered. Eventually, I have players who would probably jump at the chance to start for a Championship side who are going to rot on the bench or be let go on free transfers because seemingly nobody is interested in players.

Is there some strategy I should be using to entice offers?

The two most likely explanations are that Championship clubs cannot afford him financially, or he has no interest in playing for them but isn't good enough to attract Premier League interest. Offerring him out may sometimes give you a clue as to which, but if not you can try multiple solutions anyone.

If it's the first issue, you need to offer a financially attractive package to them. Offerring the player out for low or no fee, as well as with a percentage contribution from you to his wages, may attract some interest. If not, you need him to want to move enough to lower his wage demands, in which case the solutions are the same as the ones for the second issue below.

If it is the second issue, the first thing you can do is to encourage him to take an interest in dropping down a league. If he thinks he may get playing time in your squad he will want to stick around and try, so make sure you've already sorted out replacements in his position with a higher ability if you can afford to take that risk financially. Otherwise, over time he will realise he isn't going to and become more interested - although in turn not playing for months will make clubs less interested in him, so be careful! The other thing you can try is loading more foreign leagues with a reputation between that of the Championship and Premier League in the hope one of them will be low enough to take an interest and high enough for him to be interested.

Of course, if they played well in the Championship there is always the third way - play them and see what happens! Maybe they'll surprise you and be good enough to keep (your assistant CAN be wrong), or at least be good enough to attract interest from other Prem clubs. Don't assume that it's you who's right as to the player's aptitude for this level of football and the player who's wrong

Is there anything I can learn from this discussion that would help me understand how to get ANY of my players sold? With a promoted club and settling on a tactic, I have four or so players who each are said to be "good players for most Championship sides," yet round after round of offers that decline in asking price go unanswered. Eventually, I have players who would probably jump at the chance to start for a Championship side who are going to rot on the bench or be let go on free transfers because seemingly nobody is interested in players.

Is there some strategy I should be using to entice offers?

Nope, some fms I went 20 seasons without managing to sell anyone, climbing up the leagues. The way the game is the wage demand out prices 99% of players to the point most players would rather end up unemployed on benefits then play football.

This year I'm surprised cos I actually managed to sell one player in less than 3 year, which is alot more than normal. A player that couldnt even get in my non league team the AI saw something in him I didnt, a championship club came along and paid 100k, snapped his hand off. Never played a game for them and is currently unemployed, I wouldnt even take him back for nothing. Yet I got decent players, with great stats, player of the season, no interest whatsoever. Hes unemployed now cos his wages got too high.

I see slight interest once or twice, no bids except one form a championship team which was well under his valuation, I said no, player was unhappy, so bad I he spent the rest of the season in reserve until he left on a free, now plays for gateshead.

Get zero joy offering players, even for nothing, any fm since 2010 or something.

This kind of thing and the OP has been complained about for almost a decade.

Nope, some fms I went 20 seasons without managing to sell anyone, climbing up the leagues. The way the game is the wage demand out prices 99% of players to the point most players would rather end up unemployed on benefits then play football.

This year I'm surprised cos I actually managed to sell one player in less than 3 year, which is alot more than normal. A player that couldnt even get in my non league team the AI saw something in him I didnt, a championship club came along and paid 100k, snapped his hand off. Never played a game for them and is currently unemployed, I wouldnt even take him back for nothing. Yet I got decent players, with great stats, player of the season, no interest whatsoever. Hes unemployed now cos his wages got too high.

I see slight interest once or twice, no bids except one form a championship team which was well under his valuation, I said no, player was unhappy, so bad I he spent the rest of the season in reserve until he left on a free, now plays for gateshead.

Get zero joy offering players, even for nothing, any fm since 2010 or something.

This kind of thing and the OP has been complained about for almost a decade.

How often do you see transfer fees paid for players in real life below Championship level?

Much of this could be solved if SI removed the offer to clubs functions, it's not a realistic approach & too often it seems that people have an expectation that it is an easy way to shift deadwood.

Increasing boardroom interference would also be nice but I can imagine the rage from people managing BvB when their star player is sold for less than €30m.

I remember FM 2014 my 20 year save they was a distinct change in the behavior of players from when the game world starts to before it, abit of jumping about clubs every 2 or 3 year, where suddenly almost every player stayed at the same club years on end until they either left on a free or retired, with the last 2 or 3 years not playing a game for a club. Legends left in reserves for 2 year cos nobody was willing to pay them 3 times the wages they were on, I'm not far enough in this one to see it yet, so I dont know if its improved.

I think how bad this is can get depends on how many players you load up. If you only have a few it looks pretty normal, maybe not have a problem as I guess competition is higher, load alot and the market is flooded with samey players that nobody needs to buy cos theres pages of them floating about for free. Thats was my guess anyway.

Much of this could be solved if SI removed the offer to clubs functions, it's not a realistic approach & too often it seems that people have an expectation that it is an easy way to shift deadwood.

Increasing boardroom interference would also be nice but I can imagine the rage from people managing BvB when their star player is sold for less than €30m.

Hear hear!

I remember FM 2014 my 20 year save they was a distinct change in the behavior of players from when the game world starts to before it, abit of jumping about clubs every 2 or 3 year, where suddenly almost every player stayed at the same club years on end until they either left on a free or retired, with the last 2 or 3 years not playing a game for a club. Legends left in reserves for 2 year cos nobody was willing to pay them 3 times the wages they were on, I'm not far enough in this one to see it yet, so I dont know if its improved.

I think how bad this is can get depends on how many players you load up. If you only have a few it looks pretty normal, maybe not have a problem as I guess competition is higher, load alot and the market is flooded with samey players that nobody needs to buy cos theres pages of them floating about for free. Thats was my guess anyway.

Having a balanced player database is incredibly important if you're planning a long career save, it's also incredibly easy to get it wrong the moment you open up the advanced database options & ruin that long term save before it has even started. My advice is that unless you actually know what you're doing is to always go with the default medium database option.

I'm not far enough in this one to say yet but previous FMs, Its not realistic to offer out your players for nothing every other week, but the reason people were doing it because there was no transfer activity. Theres no poaching when you wanted to keep him, and now you want rid its equally nothing happening.

What the AI thinks is a decent player and what you do seemed miles apart. I'm have no clue what the AI see in some players sometimes, and what makes them ignore others, thats why AI team building was crazy, Then the crazy wages pricing themselves out of all markets. And no incentives to sell or buy. That was the problem with previous fms anyway.

I'm hoping thats not the case again cos it takes about 12 season+ to see it usually.

For me a key issue is that clubs are too profitable in FM & as such there is no financial imperative to sell, this drives up player values to the point that it can cause some stagnation in the transfer system, I've raised a few observations with SI on the issue & hopefully this input will help identify any underlying causes.

Using the BvB example after a season or two they & other German sides are able to match Bayern for wages & because Bayern can't increase their wage spend much higher than the starting point they lose their advantage, this pattern is repeated in other leagues with Italy being another that has rapid financial growth of clubs below Juventus.

Having a balanced player database is incredibly important if you're planning a long career save, it's also incredibly easy to get it wrong the moment you open up the advanced database options & ruin that long term save before it has even started. My advice is that unless you actually know what you're doing is to always go with the default medium database option.

Ive made that mistake loads then I guess then. I always tried to max out players. With few leagues running as that is what makes the performance take a hit. I guess it probably took me too long to realize that could be the cause. This year I didnt go crazy for a change, its pretty balanced, so hopefully I see some improvement in the transfer market.

Actually what I noticed was FM 2008 this problem didnt exist, then I got a PC that could perform better so started maxing out players for the last 8 year, went back to 2008 thinking it was the days the game used to work, maxed that out with players and it had that problem aswell now. I just thought I remembered the game more fondly than I should of, but putting 2 and 2 together says that its too many players thats caused me the problem year in year out.

Not sure what I can & cannot say due to NDA's I signed while working at SI but what I can say is that when adding in players via the advanced database option the key is to only use it if all the top division clubs in that nation have full squads (25+ players) & ideally the same applies to all clubs in the second tier of that nation. The reason is to make sure that clubs in non-playable nations have a market to sign players as they lose their starting squad to retirement or transfers, it's no use adding players to the top 3 or 4 clubs of an unplayable nation because they need to have smaller clubs to buy from.

Think of it as a food-chain, the alpha animals can only exist if the grubs exist.

I've noted that having additional leagues helps a lot. Typically Spain and England. When using only the league being played in, I primarily got a few offers from teams in or below my league and very rarely from outside.

Opening that up allowed much healthier transfer activity, not just for me, but for the league also.

In older iterations of FM, I do remember though, having bids of say 15M rejected, I would see an offer come in a while later from another club at 5M. I would then bid the same 5M and it would get rejected, upwards until I get to my original offer of 15M still without success.

The player would then sign for the other offering club at 5M whilst my bids had never been accepted.

I don't remember too much about this, other than the league was a playable league, but not one I was managing in, nor were the team in question our rivals.

I haven't noted this happening in any of my last few saves, nor if this was noted in past threads.

wrong thread

Having a balanced player database is incredibly important if you're planning a long career save, it's also incredibly easy to get it wrong the moment you open up the advanced database options & ruin that long term save before it has even started. My advice is that unless you actually know what you're doing is to always go with the default medium database option.

Easy to say. I posted a question regarding this exact issue when FM16 was launched, namely how to achieve a well balanced set-up for a long term save.

I received zero help whatsoever.

As I said the easiest way is to select a medium db with no additions & afaik this is often stated as the case by others when the subject has come up in the past.

There should be a warning and a how to balance it for best results guide in game. Say you select 100,000 players the game should say 'recommended 40 leagues' or something. They should have a maximum but balanced option, Or they should try to balance it better to how many players you load.

The problem is it often takes you alot of time to realise its not working, wasted time and a broke save. How many seasons over the years Ive given up on this game cos Ive found out the transfer market is broken.

I'm wondering about the effect regens have aswell, cos when the regens first generate thats a massive boost in player count, they must come faster than they retire too. So you might start out with 100K but 9 months later you could have 125k

As I said the easiest way is to select a medium db with no additions & afaik this is often stated as the case by others when the subject has come up in the past.

I don't want the easiest, I want information on how to get the best out of the game.

There should be a warning and a how to balance it for best results guide in game. Say you select 100,000 players the game should say 'recommended 40 leagues' or something. They should have a maximum but balanced option, Or they should try to balance it better to how many players you load.

The problem is it often takes you alot of time to realise its not working, wasted time and a broke save. How many seasons over the years Ive given up on this game cos Ive found out the transfer market is broken.

I'm wondering about the effect regens have aswell, cos when the regens first generate thats a massive boost in player count, they must come faster than they retire too. So you might start out with 100K but 9 months later you could have 125k

It's not a simple case of number of players/number of clubs & as each game evolves it could produce a different set of result therefore any pre-start warning would be nothing more than a worthless guess.

Newgen's are balanced by retiring off unattached players who have been without a club for a set period of time, throughout the life of a save the total player numbers will show very little change from the starting number.

I don't want the easiest, I want information on how to get the best out of the game.

The only way to do what you want is to create a matrix for every possible combination of active leagues & additional players loaded in the advanced options plus what is best for you might not be the best for someone else. Using the advance options is the same as setting up a game based on processing speed criteria, you have to try a number of settings until you narrow them down to the ones that work best for you which is why medium is the simplest option for those who are unable to take the time to find their optimal setting.

Barside, are you able to elaborate at all on the trade-offs between the leagues being ran and the size of the DB? Not the full matrix, just generally what to expect.

For simplicity sake, what's the effect on transfer markets between choosing 1, 5, or 10 visible leagues with small, medium, or large DBs?

This save is starting to look like every other save Ive had on this game for the last 10 year, no interest from AI in any of my players, and almost every player at every club trying for a testimonial.

I'm wondering if I can get from non league south to the premier league without ever having to sell or buy a player, or have the dilema of wondering whether to sell or not.

And for that matter, I'm wondering if I can go from non league to premier league, without ever being approached by a club to be their manager from any one other than a club below me who sacked their manager cos they are 21st or below in the league, like its some kind of tempting offer, I know there an achievement for bveing offered a job at a club better than yours, is that why.

or whether I can get in the championship with a 2k stadium.

This save is starting to look like every other save Ive had on this game for the last 10 year, no interest from AI in any of my players, and almost every player at every club trying for a testimonial.

But there are transfers in the game world, right? Just not your players?

What game version is this? 16.x.x ?

As I said the easiest way is to select a medium db with no additions & afaik this is often stated as the case by others when the subject has come up in the past.

Out of curiosity, a medium DB with how many nations selected? The default is just 1 nation.

Perhaps a bit off topic, was just wondering.

I'm in the January, 2016 transfer window, and I just made an enquiry into Per Ciljan Skjelbred of German 1st Division side Hertha. I was told he was not for sale at any price. Meanwhile, they've accepted a bid of ZERO dollars from Celta. What the serious what?

Was there a pre-existing contract clause that Celta were able to activate.

Out of curiosity, a medium DB with how many nations selected? The default is just 1 nation.

Perhaps a bit off topic, was just wondering.

With a medium db I'd suggest a minimum of 3 but fewer than that will not present a major problem until unless there's a freak development at some point during the save.