Massive first half of the season, always destroyed second half

Hello and good day!

I'm looking to get some help with my tactic and training and maybe even team talks. I just don't know how to analyze the situation and what to change. When we play well, we play exactly like I want it. I just don't know how to keep performance up.

(Notice: I am playing a custom database, I've added a local team into the Swedish Allsvenskan. I've added the same TV-deals as England got and I've changed the season so it's played like the English league)

The problem:

I'm playing a simple fluid tactic, the idea is to overload the middle and it's been working well for the last 3 seasons, for the first half of each season. Then we crumble.

It's been the same for all three seasons, we play really well for the first 13-16 games and then we just stop scoring. We create the same amount of chances, clear cut chances. We have the same amount of possession, shots and basically everything. The stats are the same, which makes it hard for me to analyze why we go from winning to constantly losing by 0-1 and 0-2. Rarely more as the opposition at the most have 4 shots on our goal (except against much better teams out in Europe).

The first 12 league games we got 9-2-1. The last win coming with 3-0. The last 5 games, we got 0-0-5. Having scored 0 goals, letting in 7.

First 12 league games: 25 goals for, 9 against.

The last 5 games: 0 goals for, 7 against.

Tactic:

-------------- GK(D)

FB(S) - CD(D) - BPD(D) - FB(D)

------BWM(D)-AP(S)-BWM(S)

-----------AM(A) - AM(S)

-----------------F(A)

TIs: Exploit The Middle, Push Higher Up, Close Down More, Stay on Feet, Be More Expressive

Mentality: Standard and Counter

Team Shape: Fluid

My thoughts:

1. Since we play so narrow and all goal-scoring is expected to be done from the middle, are we too easy to read?

2. Since we are not expected to win the league, could it actually be so that my players choke up when we claim the top spot and it's up to us to keep it? I see a lot of nervous players out there.

3. My counter tactic is slightly different, it's assymetric with the AM(A) out on the wing as a W(S). I have also removed Push Higher and Exploit The Middle on it. Anything else I should do?

It's probably not a mystery-

"Since we are not expected to win the league" and yet you win a lot in the first half of the season. By mid-season, teams are now recognizing that you are a threat and a top side. This leads them, especially in away games, to adopt a much more defensive strategy against you.

"Since we play so narrow and all goal-scoring is expected to be done from the middle, are we too easy to read?" Think about this in relationship to the above. Now you have teams playing deep and compact against you and they are a lot harder to break down, especially if your attack is one dimensional and aimed right where they have packed the pitch.

One last point- teams playing defensive or counter are going to eat you for breakfast with that midfield. Look how many of them are pushed up the pitch in general: Two BWMs who aggressively close down and go out of position, and AP (S) who pushes up a good bit, two AMs: When you turn it over trying to break into that packed defensive third, your back line is left hanging out to dry.

Thank you! It was along my own lines of thinking. Sometimes confirmation is good! I will try to adapt my counter-attacking to be able to deal with this issue.