Cup drawings mechanism

Hi all. Have been reading this forum for a bit before actually registering.

I have searched to see if there were any old threads on this issue,but couldn't find any...

Anyway,I've managed to bring little Tromso all the way to the group stage of Champions' League in 2017/2018. Saved the game at the beginning of the day of the drawings and got a group with Bayern,Atletico Madrid and AC Milan.

Since my previous drawings had been hard enough (Celtic in the playoff,worst of the picks according to the rankings),I decided to save the game on a new file and re-load the old save to see if the drawings were indeed fixed or something...and for 4 times in a row the same 8 groups were drawn!

So what,is the drawing pre-determined before one observes the actual drawing? If so,why?

Cup draws are done randomly by the AI at the end of the previous round.

You then see the draw playout a few days later.

If you save between the AI doing the draw and you viewing it you will always get the same draw.

Hi all. Have been reading this forum for a bit before actually registering.

I have searched to see if there were any old threads on this issue,but couldn't find any...

Anyway,I've managed to bring little Tromso all the way to the group stage of Champions' League in 2017/2018. Saved the game at the beginning of the day of the drawings and got a group with Bayern,Atletico Madrid and AC Milan.

Since my previous drawings had been hard enough (Celtic in the playoff,worst of the picks according to the rankings),I decided to save the game on a new file and re-load the old save to see if the drawings were indeed fixed or something...and for 4 times in a row the same 8 groups were drawn!

So what,is the drawing pre-determined before one observes the actual drawing? If so,why?

Cup draws are done randomly by the AI at the end of the previous round.

You then see the draw playout a few days later.

If you save between the AI doing the draw and you viewing it you will always get the same draw.

Which means that if you replay the final fixture, then go to the draw again, the draw will be different. Otherwise it will remain the same as Cougar says.

I used to think its was secretly weighted against user team until my Skrill North team didn't meat a league team until the 3rd round of FA cup then in 4th round we got a Skrill Premier team and lost lol.

I used to think its was secretly weighted against user team until my Skrill North team didn't meat a league team until the 3rd round of FA cup then in 4th round we got a Skrill Premier team and lost lol.

It's always weighted against you!

Until you get a nice easy draw anyway.

I'm not sure if this is coincidental or not, but I have found over a few years of different FM games, including FM14, that cups draws often match me up with the team I will be playing in the league either immediately before or after the date of the cup fixture.

For example, if I was due to be playing Everton on March 21 and the cup game date would be March 25, I would likely draw Everton.

I have also found that I draw the same teams regularly. I ended up playing Gateshead in both FA Cup and FA Trophy two seasons in a row.

Cup draws are done randomly by the AI at the end of the previous round.

You then see the draw playout a few days later.

If you save between the AI doing the draw and you viewing it you will always get the same draw.

Huh,allright.

I guess it's done in order to avoid people reloading time and again in order to get a favourable draw.

At the same time,it also means that it's not possible to verify whether the AI does indeed match you up with stronger teams more often than not.

I'm not sure if this is coincidental or not, but I have found over a few years of different FM games, including FM14, that cups draws often match me up with the team I will be playing in the league either immediately before or after the date of the cup fixture.

For example, if I was due to be playing Everton on March 21 and the cup game date would be March 25, I would likely draw Everton.

I have also found that I draw the same teams regularly. I ended up playing Gateshead in both FA Cup and FA Trophy two seasons in a row.

It does seem to happen too often to be coincidental.

I'm not sure about whether its the case in real life but maybe it's due to rescheduled league games being changed to these dates

It also seems that rival cup games happen often in cups.

True story: you and other teams will disproportionally be more likely to draw a team you'll be playing in the league game after, or the last game before it.

Edit: Oh I was actually beaten to it.

True story: you and other teams will disproportionally be more likely to draw a team you'll be playing in the league game after, or the last game before it.

Do you have statistical evidence for this or is it just your impression?

Do you have statistical evidence for this or is it just your impression?

If you pay me, I'll provide statistical evidence. Otherwise I'm going on personal experience. I know that things like this can SEEM that way, because the minority can give the illusion of being the majority by being more obvious when it happens. However it does happen more often than real life, at least in the past.

One reason for being drew in a hard Champions League group is your co-efficient.

For example as Middlesbrough my first season in Champions League I was in Pot 4 due to having no CL co-efficient points, thereby meaning I would be 'the weak team' and being in a group with Pot 1, 2 and 3 who have a higher co-efficient.

Premier League Chelsea

CL SF 1st Leg Chelsea

Premier League Liverpool

CL SF 2nd Leg Chelsea

Premier League Arsenal

Premier League Sunderland

FA Cup Final Chelsea

Snark example

It happens but I can't say it's happened consistently. Having a look at my draw from season 1 and season 2 only that bit stands out and that was in season 1 and it's not really a good example because it's a) A semi final and b) a final draw.

That said, how about that for a rough run in of games?

I had 4 games out of 6 against Monaco towards the tail-end of my previous season.

Because they're a good team and we're a good team and good teams often do well in cup competitions.

If you pay me, I'll provide statistical evidence. Otherwise I'm going on personal experience. I know that things like this can SEEM that way, because the minority can give the illusion of being the majority by being more obvious when it happens. However it does happen more often than real life, at least in the past.

In my last 5 seasons I've not once played the same team twice in a row. That includes strong leage cup, fa cup and champs league runs.

It's not necessarily back to back but over the past few years I've noticed a very strong trend in a majority of seasons of having the same opponent in a cup and the league with just a game or two at most in between. I haven't done a statistical analysis or anything but it's been consistent enough to be very noticeable. Just loading up my current save (on FM11) to look...

Chornomorets

2011-12 - back to back with Dnipro

2012-13- 3 matches in between league and cup games with Arsenal Kiev, which admitedly isn't that close but borderline

2014-15 - One league match between games against Nyva Vinnytsya, technically similar with Shakhtar but that was the final so that doesn't count.

2015-16 - another borderline Arsenal Kiev example, otherwise the only one of my 6 seasons in Ukraine where I got past a couple of rounds and it didn't happen.

Slavia Prague

2017-18 - Sparta just two games apart

2018-19 - Most just one game apart

And that's my last full season so far though I lost a lot during a laptop issue and there were definitely a bunch more from the 'lost seasons'. Only once so far have I got past multiple cup rounds and not had it happen so while I wouldn't go so far as to call it an issue, it's definitely a clear trend.

In my last 5 seasons I've not once played the same team twice in a row. That includes strong leage cup, fa cup and champs league runs.

But have you looked at other teams? I wouldn't rely on just your results over 5 seasons, you'd need a slightly bigger pool.

If you pay me, I'll provide statistical evidence. Otherwise I'm going on personal experience. I know that things like this can SEEM that way, because the minority can give the illusion of being the majority by being more obvious when it happens. However it does happen more often than real life, at least in the past.

This by far and away us the best comment I've seen on these forums. I agree, they expect people to do extensive research for them on a volunteer basis. For example, research positions. They get people expressing their desire to be a researcher and if they don't do so in their REQUIRED method, they are rude to them.

if you play in strong and competitive league that gives a lot euro cup spots and you are also a strong club in the league, chances are that strong clubs will have games rescheduled for euro competitions. if you add domestic cups later rounds you will quite often play against teams who are of similar quality that do well in europe who also had games rescheduled. This is even amplified with not so strong teams, but those who should have played those strong teams in rescheduled games. don't think it is so unusual.

I haven't done any extensive testing but there may be some merit to your theory. However, this doesn't make sense in Skrill N/S for example as rescheduling is fairly rare. Also most of the times I've noticed this the league games were already there before the cup draw.

I'm not sure if this is coincidental or not, but I have found over a few years of different FM games, including FM14, that cups draws often match me up with the team I will be playing in the league either immediately before or after the date of the cup fixture. For example, if I was due to be playing Everton on March 21 and the cup game date would be March 25, I would likely draw Everton.I have also found that I draw the same teams regularly. I ended up playing Gateshead in both FA Cup and FA Trophy two seasons in a row.

I know that's how it should work but it seems to indicate otherwise. It would take extensive testing to find out. In the end this is a minor issue and we are being whiny bitches. You do see similar things happening IRL so maybe it's realistic, just the frequency may be a bit high.

I'm not sure if this is coincidental or not, but I have found over a few years of different FM games, including FM14, that cups draws often match me up with the team I will be playing in the league either immediately before or after the date of the cup fixture.

For example, if I was due to be playing Everton on March 21 and the cup game date would be March 25, I would likely draw Everton.

I have also found that I draw the same teams regularly. I ended up playing Gateshead in both FA Cup and FA Trophy two seasons in a row.

On the flip side, you may have been due to play Tottenham on the 28th but got drawn against Everton in the cup on the 25th. People never mention the game on the other side, which automatically halves the odds.

I'm going to go back through my fixtures at some point this weekend and see how many times this has happened to me and also how many times it hasn't happened.

I remember a thread from, was it last year about Cup draws where someone did some calculating.

Turns out playing the same team before or after in the league is much more likely to happen than you would think, especially in later rounds.

I'm not sure if this is coincidental or not, but I have found over a few years of different FM games, including FM14, that cups draws often match me up with the team I will be playing in the league either immediately before or after the date of the cup fixture.

For example, if I was due to be playing Everton on March 21 and the cup game date would be March 25, I would likely draw Everton.

I have also found that I draw the same teams regularly. I ended up playing Gateshead in both FA Cup and FA Trophy two seasons in a row.

Been getting this for many years

I've been back through my fixture lists and found that the last 75 times a cup match has preceded/succeeded a league match, it was always different teams.

Well that is too far in the other direction. I would hope you would check other saves. If this is a pattern that would seem to be an issue.

But have you looked at other teams? I wouldn't rely on just your results over 5 seasons, you'd need a slightly bigger pool.

If you can tell me the odds how often this happens in real life (in England, Spain, France and Germany with all leagues and teams included), I can do the same research in my save...

You said it happens to you all the time, I said it has never happens to me. So it's a draw so far...

Also: I play a season in roughly a week. So if something happens once a season, it happens weekly to me. That might give a wrong impression of it happening all the time. This is not only for special cup draws but also for strange results or heavy injuries...

I think everybody needs to provide some evidence. It is all to easy to say it doesn't happen or it always happens without testing it.

AFIK IRL it does happen and that there will be a cup tie and a league fixture within two games fairly regularly. Especially at top division level and in later rounds. I suspect thus is mainly due to top teams being the only team left. However I'm no maths whiz. What are the chances of randomly drawing the 3 remaining cup teams and the the same one of 19 league teams at the same time. It could be due to rescheduled league games being moved to dates near cup dates, still you still have to luck out and draw those same teams in the cup. Of course if the rescheduled league game is against a remaing cup team the chances if a double up are 1 in 3 so really the frequency seems pretty correct IMO.

If it is random as it should be the frequency should reflect real life with slight variation as the nature of randomness deemands this. I think everybody seems to have a conspiracy theory and I think my explanation goes some way to supporting SI in proving its random after all.

I think everybody needs to provide some evidence. It is all to easy to say it doesn't happen or it always happens without testing it.

AFIK IRL it does happen and that there will be a cup tie and a league fixture within two games fairly regularly. Especially at top division level and in later rounds. I suspect thus is mainly due to top teams being the only team left. However I'm no maths whiz. What are the chances of randomly drawing the 3 remaining cup teams and the the same one of 19 league teams at the same time. It could be due to rescheduled league games being moved to dates near cup dates, still you still have to luck out and draw those same teams in the cup. Of course if the rescheduled league game is against a remaing cup team the chances if a double up are 1 in 3 so really the frequency seems pretty correct IMO.

If it is random as it should be the frequency should reflect real life with slight variation as the nature of randomness deemands this. I think everybody seems to have a conspiracy theory and I think my explanation goes some way to supporting SI in proving its random after all.

I agree. It is probably due to memory effects that you remember these 'special' cases better than if this situation does not happen. Even so, the chance is very small. The chance of drawing the same club in the semi final as well as playing them in the league is roughly 1,75% I guess.

Randomness combined with probability. Leaves some very different results. For example, save a game before a match. Play once, reload and reaload over again. You will probably get quite different results even if playing exact same team and tactics. The game takes into account all the constants and randomises the variables. This is further proof that the cup draws are indeed random. The game takes into account the rules of the comp which are the constants and randomises the teams.

I agree. It is probably due to memory effects that you remember these 'special' cases better than if this situation does not happen. Even so, the chance is very small. The chance of drawing the same club in the semi final as well as playing them in the league is roughly 1,75% I guess.

Take a 20 team league.

Presuming you play a team from the same league in the semi final then the chance of playing them in the next league game is 1/19 = 5.25%. Equally the chance of playing the same team in the prior league game is 5.25%.

Its a while since I did probability but I think that means the chance of playing the same team either before or after the cup match = 10.5%.

Shouldn't you also include the probability from the semi final cup drawing? That's what I did: the chance you get a certain team in a semi final drawing (1/3) times the probability that it is the same team you play in the league (1/19), which is 1.75%. You are right in taking the double percentage of that since for this instance it does not matter if you play the same team before or after the cup match. This would add up to 3.5%.

I don't believe so Koennn although I could be wrong.

You are calculating the probability that you play the team you draw in the cup in the next or previous league game so the cup game is a fixed event that has already happened and you don't need to calculate the 1/3.

Ah I see your point. My calculations would be the game's calculations before the previous cup round has finished and the draw is fixed. I think you are right. Ten percent is actually a pretty good chance.

I don't believe so Koennn although I could be wrong.

You are calculating the probability that you play the team you draw in the cup in the next or previous league game so the cup game is a fixed event that has already happened and you don't need to calculate the 1/3.

I prefer to look at it in the terms of say you have a resceduled game against Chelsea in the league you then have a 1/3 chance of drawing the same team.

But you look at it in absolute probability terms you would have to add 1/19 to 1/3. So to add these fractions you need to either add the decimals or find a common denominator which would be 57. So it would be 3/57+19/57=22/57. So there would be a 38.6% chance. Seems high to me. Like I said I'm no maths whiz.

Shouldn't you also include the probability from the semi final cup drawing? That's what I did: the chance you get a certain team in a semi final drawing (1/3) times the probability that it is the same team you play in the league (1/19), which is 1.75%. You are right in taking the double percentage of that since for this instance it does not matter if you play the same team before or after the cup match. This would add up to 3.5%.

I think you are correct and my previous post was rubbish. Taking this into account it does happen too much in game from what I've seen. But it could be my subjective view influencing this.