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Thread: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

  1. #1
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    Default Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Hey people just a quick question regarding pre match odds and how they affect the outcome.

    Having brought Leeds United back into the premier league and survived the first season in 14th overall (thanks to some well timed reloading), I have just lost my fourth game in a row. Okay my first four games have been horrible match ups - Liverpool 0-3 (H), ManU 7-2 (A), Everton 0-2 (H) and Chelsea 5-1 (A). I am playing Blackburn next in an away game. The odds are against me and my second in charge can't see past a Blackburn victory... and it seems that he's right !

    Do you guys ever get the feeling that you just can't win a game no matter what you try? I've tried to replay this game for about 10 times and every time I have lost. Best result was a 5-4 defeat while my average was around 3-0. I've realised that for some games where your odds are a little more balanced out, I tend to get different results when I replay it or at least secure scrappy draws with 4-5 reloads when applying different tactical approaches.

    But for this game I've tried out all my tactics - attack, balanced, counter, control, defend... nothing seems to work... Their squad ain't that great and I'm desperate for something after four straight defeats.

    But yeah are some games just impossible to win especially when the odds are heavily stacked against you and you're team morale is in the gutters?

    Oh and I've got Villa next at home... great...

    Cheers

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Why do you re-load the game? - surely no point in having the game if all you want to do is win every single game?!

    Anyway, look at Derby last season - lost almost every single game. Try looking at where you are weak and improve that area, or maybe you should just accept the fact that this season isn't yours and maybe a spell back in the Championship will do you good, try to re-build for the future (thats what i find exciting about the game, not just wanting to win all the time)

    Good luck.

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    I don't think any game is impossible to win, but if the odds are agaisnt you coupled with low morale and a losing streak, it's unlikely you're going to do much in the game no matter what changes you make. Of course from time to time you can pull a fly one and amaze the world, but not very often.

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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Quote Originally Posted by oi_oi_ginger_roy View Post
    Why do you re-load the game? - surely no point in having the game if all you want to do is win every single game?!

    Anyway, look at Derby last season - lost almost every single game. Try looking at where you are weak and improve that area, or maybe you should just accept the fact that this season isn't yours and maybe a spell back in the Championship will do you good, try to re-build for the future (thats what i find exciting about the game, not just wanting to win all the time)

    Good luck.
    He bought the game, he can re-load as much as he likes. Doesn't affect anyone else.

    It's not for all of us, but who really cares if others choose re-load?

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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    The problem with reloading, New Xieland is that the only thing changing are tactics/maybe line ups. So you would expect very similar results because of other events leading upto the match, such as media interaction, player morale (which after four defears, will be low) losing previous game etc. So that feeling your getting is probably not the AI thinking 'He ain't going to win me!'.

    If you're so desperate to win, get FMM and knock down the condition of some of their first teamers so they wont be selected, you could also give your team higher morale etc.

  6. #6
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    Question Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike7077 View Post
    He bought the game, he can re-load as much as he likes. Doesn't affect anyone else.

    It's not for all of us, but who really cares if others choose re-load?
    You're right - i'm sorry

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Quote Originally Posted by Neji View Post
    The problem with reloading, New Xieland is that the only thing changing are tactics/maybe line ups. So you would expect very similar results because of other events leading upto the match, such as media interaction, player morale (which after four defears, will be low) losing previous game etc. So that feeling your getting is probably not the AI thinking 'He ain't going to win me!'.

    If you're so desperate to win, get FMM and knock down the condition of some of their first teamers so they wont be selected, you could also give your team higher morale etc.

    The voice of experience?

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Quote Originally Posted by oi_oi_ginger_roy View Post
    Why do you re-load the game? - surely no point in having the game if all you want to do is win every single game?!

    Anyway, look at Derby last season - lost almost every single game. Try looking at where you are weak and improve that area, or maybe you should just accept the fact that this season isn't yours and maybe a spell back in the Championship will do you good, try to re-build for the future (thats what i find exciting about the game, not just wanting to win all the time)

    Good luck.
    Well some times when I lose a game that I feel that I should have a chance of winning or at least drawing, I reload it and try out a different tactics. If I manage to better my previous result, then I know that it was my tactics. However with this recent Blackburn one it looks like I'll just have to cop the defeat and move on...

    However at times I just feel that its beyond my control... Sometimes with my mentality set to defensive and and tight marking across the board I still end up conceding 3-4 goals. Other times when I have a highly attacking tactics, even against the computer's 4-2-4 formation I don't end up conceding at all and often score on the counter. It also appears that when you're chasing a game or defending a lead, by changing your formation and dropping in that extra DMC or AMC / FC can do more harm that good... hmmmmm

    Anyhow back to my reload... let see if I can beat them tonight ;)

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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike7077 View Post
    The voice of experience?
    In terms of using FMM, yes. Like I've said in others posts before, I sometimes run cheat games and other times run non-cheat games. If I'm playing a long term career game I don't touch third party tools but if I'm bored of a long term game, then I will play a new game with a big club and use FMM to edit the club.

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    when the odds arent in your favour, wish them luck before the match, that normally helps for me

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Quote Originally Posted by New_Xieland View Post
    Hey people just a quick question regarding pre match odds and how they affect the outcome.

    Having brought Leeds United back into the premier league and survived the first season in 14th overall (thanks to some well timed reloading), I have just lost my fourth game in a row. Okay my first four games have been horrible match ups - Liverpool 0-3 (H), ManU 7-2 (A), Everton 0-2 (H) and Chelsea 5-1 (A). I am playing Blackburn next in an away game. The odds are against me and my second in charge can't see past a Blackburn victory... and it seems that he's right !

    Do you guys ever get the feeling that you just can't win a game no matter what you try? I've tried to replay this game for about 10 times and every time I have lost. Best result was a 5-4 defeat while my average was around 3-0. I've realised that for some games where your odds are a little more balanced out, I tend to get different results when I replay it or at least secure scrappy draws with 4-5 reloads when applying different tactical approaches.

    But for this game I've tried out all my tactics - attack, balanced, counter, control, defend... nothing seems to work... Their squad ain't that great and I'm desperate for something after four straight defeats.

    But yeah are some games just impossible to win especially when the odds are heavily stacked against you and you're team morale is in the gutters?

    Oh and I've got Villa next at home... great...

    Cheers


    your season must last months if you load your game after losing.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Just grin and bear it. bad runs are really tough to get out of on FM2008 due to the morale having a big say in things.

    You coudl try 1 of 2 things tell your players basically they prob will loose and play tactically liek this v defencively and CA and pray but if they get something their morale will leap up. Or try to suprise a Blackburn team that may get complacent/over commit to get the win they fell they shoudl and after 10-20 min of tight play up tempo closing down and have a right go at them, if it comes off your players will feel dead good about themselves

  13. #13
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    I only do the thing Neji said with Inter Milan...because Ibrahimovic is absolutely infuriating. Then again, it didn't exactly work. Ibrahimovic fired in a overhead kick with 54% condition to win the game for them. Needless to say I was smashing the keyboard after that.

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    I have had similiar experience of of losing streaks. One thing I have tried that occassionally works is to use the pre-match team talk, "the pressure is off". I then use a similiar talk at half-time.

    For some reason the players go and play their hearts out.

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    I'd like to know why my opponents who aer fourth from bottom are 1-6 on to win when I'm 7th ?

  16. #16
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Quote Originally Posted by New_Xieland View Post
    Well some times when I lose a game that I feel that I should have a chance of winning or at least drawing, I reload it and try out a different tactics. If I manage to better my previous result, then I know that it was my tactics. However with this recent Blackburn one it looks like I'll just have to cop the defeat and move on...
    Not necessarily. Sometimes you can reload and try the same tactics and win, or lose worse than previously. I've had the same tactic over 10 replays produce results of 1-1, 5-5, 5-1, 0-3, 1-2, 0-4, etc.. This is part of the trap of reloading: That you'll make changes to your tactics and have success and then think it was your genius tactical changes when it may well have been down to the luck of the day.

    This can make it very difficult to improve your tactics if you're having a hard time 'reading the game' to know what areas are weak. Sometimes you'll fix your tactic and then go on a run of bad results. You may now have a better chance of good results, but you might not know it unless you have faith in your tactic and/or know how to read the game very well.

    So be careful about the traps of reloading and changing tactics. Confirmation bias is rife in football, and nowhere moreso than in FM!

  17. #17
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    On various FM forums, this is sometimes called the "second season syndrome", it is known that the second season is always going to be more difficult, due to the AI being more resistant. The computer considers you a better opponent now, thus will give you more resilience.

  18. #18
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Try shutting up shop with defence tactics and then tick counter attack.

    Is better to have 0-0 draw then a loss

  19. #19
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    You can't usually expect to bounce right back after a series of losses; the best you should aim for is to grind out a draw or a narrow win and then build on that for your next games. The pre-match odds are a good indication of how you should be playing.

  20. #20
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Quote Originally Posted by New_Xieland View Post
    Well some times when I lose a game that I feel that I should have a chance of winning or at least drawing, I reload it and try out a different tactics. If I manage to better my previous result, then I know that it was my tactics. However with this recent Blackburn one it looks like I'll just have to cop the defeat and move on...

    However at times I just feel that its beyond my control... Sometimes with my mentality set to defensive and and tight marking across the board I still end up conceding 3-4 goals. Other times when I have a highly attacking tactics, even against the computer's 4-2-4 formation I don't end up conceding at all and often score on the counter. It also appears that when you're chasing a game or defending a lead, by changing your formation and dropping in that extra DMC or AMC / FC can do more harm that good... hmmmmm

    Anyhow back to my reload... let see if I can beat them tonight ;)
    Wonder if Alex Ferguson would like to reload the Liverpool Match ;)

  21. #21
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    Default Re: Pre Match Odds and Chance of Winning

    Can I just add a question based on some of the replies I have seen here... Is there a random factor that affects your results too? I was playing FM08 and I beat chelsea with arsenal 4-0 and my battery died on the laptop. When I reloaded I used the same media responses, same players and tactics etc so everything was identical and I lost 2-1.

    It was my first game since loading so nothing else will have affected the players morale etc

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