Final group game permutations thread

POINT SYSTEM :

Three points for a win, one point for a draw, and no points for defeat.

TIE-BREAKER RULES :

If two or more teams finish equal on points after all the group matches have been played, the following criteria will be applied to determine the ranking :

(a) Greater number of points obtained in the matches between the teams in question.

(b) Goal difference resulting from the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).

© Greater number of goals scored in the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).

(d) Goal difference in all the group matches.

(e) Greater number of goals scored in all the group matches.

(f) Higher position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking.

(g) Fair Play conduct of the teams (final tournament).

(h) A drawing of lots by the Organising Committee.

Current tables:

Group A:

http://livescore.com/euro-2012/group_a/

Group B:

http://livescore.com/euro-2012/group_b/

Group C:

http://livescore.com/euro-2012/group_c/

Group D:

http://livescore.com/euro-2012/group_d/

NO team is yet fully qualified.

(However) Russia and Germany have relatively extreme situations for them to go out.

(Russia, need to not be beaten by Greece*(?)) (Germany's only chance of being knocked out is if Denmark win AND Portugal win with BOTH Portugal and Denmark attaining better goal differences from those results)

Netherlands chances of going through- must hope Germany BEAT Denmark, and must beat Portugal by a 2 goal margin. IF either Portugal or Denmark draw or win; Netherlands Euro2012 is over.

I think Holland are gone,I just can not see them doing it against Portugal and even if they do I can still see Germany taking it a bit easier and Denmark getting a point.

And Poland and Russia from the other group,although would not shock me to see Greece sneak through.

I think Holland are gone,I just can not see them doing it against Portugal and even if they do I can still see Germany taking it a bit easier and Denmark getting a point.

And Poland and Russia from the other group,although would not shock me to see Greece sneak through.

You think Greece can beat Russia? Would be interesting if that happened cos if Poland beat the Czechs it would come down to GD 3 ways of RU, PL & GR. GR would obviously be top with 1 win and 1 draw from the two teams in question. PL would be 2nd with GD of 0. Russia out based on losing to Greece.

You think Greece can beat Russia? Would be interesting if that happened cos if Poland beat the Czechs it would come down to GD 3 ways of RU, PL & GR. GR would obviously be top with 1 win and 1 draw from the two teams in question. PL would be 2nd with GD of 0. Russia out based on losing to Greece.

It would not surprise me tbh,I think both Poland and Russia will go through but the Greece side are a tricky team to play against sometimes,lets be honest they played well against Poland in the 2nd half of the opening match.

The way Russia play will suit the Greece side.

You think Greece can beat Russia? Would be interesting if that happened cos if Poland beat the Czechs it would come down to GD 3 ways of RU, PL & GR. GR would obviously be top with 1 win and 1 draw from the two teams in question. PL would be 2nd with GD of 0. Russia out based on losing to Greece.

Have you not seen the fighting spirit and teamwork of the Greeks? They can certainly pull together and beat the Russians. They won the Cup 8 years ago when no one thought it possible.

It would not surprise me tbh,I think both Poland and Russia will go through but the Greece side are a tricky team to play against sometimes,lets be honest they played well against Poland in the 2nd half of the opening match.

The way Russia play will suit the Greece side.

Would be quite exciting to see that happen. Turn the group on its head. I'm kind of worried about Poland. I think the Czechs are one of the worst teams in the tournament, but at the same time Poland failed to put their chances away against Greece in the first half when dominating and could've won against Russia but didn't take advantage. It's a youngish team without too much experience in major tournaments, especially not in big games like this. Could see the Czechs boring them to death and nicking a goal and draw maybe. Possibly just being skeptical because of past disappointments. Think man for man Poland are the better team and also have the home advantage, but the pressure makes it tough.

Have you not seen the fighting spirit and teamwork of the Greeks? They can certainly pull together and beat the Russians. They won the Cup 8 years ago when no one thought it possible.

They have fighting spirit but also have a dreadful defence and are nowhere near as organised as 8 years ago. Barely have anyone left from that team so barely worth mentioning it. Also down to third string keeper now after last game. Big ask against a Russian team with so much speed and attacking talent. Greece will fight hard but don't have many creative players and don't have the organisation and defensive solidity of 8 years ago. Would love them to win but can't see it. Their inconsistency does suggest they are due a good performance however (maybe).

The way Russia play will suit the Greece side.

This. Poland played counter-attacks against Russia and had some great chances to convert into a win, Greece will play very similar. I just want Poland to beat Czechs and I don't care who else will be in the quarters. I'd like to see Russia drop out though.

Germany out please.

surely those tie breaker rules should end after (f) given that one team is always ranked higher?

surely those tie breaker rules should end after (f) given that one team is always ranked higher?

No, two teams can be tied in ranking.

think fair play should come before rankings (dont think rankings should count at all)

hoping germany rest some players and Denmark pick up a point on Sun

Fair play is great, it's always awesome when a tactical yellow card comes back to haunt a side.

I was going to ask but reading the OP it looks like head-to-head is in play for this then

Funniest thing is Germany's not that safe actually despite beating the two theoretically strongest teams they had to face, Portugal wins and Denmark wins and they're out. Unless it's a bizarre result like 3-2, 4-3, 5-4, ...

You think Greece can beat Russia? Would be interesting if that happened cos if Poland beat the Czechs it would come down to GD 3 ways of RU, PL & GR. GR would obviously be top with 1 win and 1 draw from the two teams in question. PL would be 2nd with GD of 0. Russia out based on losing to Greece.

If Poland beat the Czechs they will go through with 5 points. A Greece win over Russia will leave them both on 4, with Greece going through on head to head.

Another interesting scenario; If Greece beat Russia and Poland draw against the Czechs, Poland will finish bottom of the group despite being the only unbeaten team, with the other 3 teams tied on 4 points.

Italy are in exactly the same position they were in Euro 2004. A 2-2 fix between Croatia-Spain will send them out, regardless of what they do against Ireland.

conspiracy theory alert

If we go into the last game in Group C with Spain 4, Croatia 4, Italy 2, Spain and Croatia could engineer a 2-2 draw and send both of them through at Italy's expense?

heh and 1-1 would mean the team that beats Ireland the least will go out

The hope is that it will depend on who finish 1st and 2nd in Group D and who wants to avoid whom. This way, a draw won't be enough.

heh and 1-1 would mean the team that beats Ireland the least will go out

Yep, because then it goes to goal difference overall.

An update on the final day permutations for Group C: Ireland are ****ed.

*For Ireland to go through they need to beat Italy and hope for a points deduction on Spain or Croatia.

conspiracy theory alert

If we go into the last game in Group C with Spain 4, Croatia 4, Italy 2, Spain and Croatia could engineer a 2-2 draw and send both of them through at Italy's expense?

Yes.

Spain will be through even with a 1-1 draw, but the 2-2 would see both advance.

Considering Croatia's chances to overcome Spain are slim anyway, and a loss for them would mean elimination, the 2-2 looks like a very very likely scenario.

Italy can cry foul as much as they want, but once again (like in 2004) it's their fault for failing to win games when it matters.

Croatia must be really regretting going easy on Ireland after going 3-1 up. Goal difference looks like coming back to bite them in the arse. Would've been so much easier if they knew drawing with Spain would've given them a chance rather than most likely needing the win now.

So Spain win the group if they win. If they draw they must draw 1-1 or higher and hope to have beaten Ireland by a higher margin than Italy to win group. (presuming Italy win)

Italy take second qualifying spot if they win and Croatia lose.

If Spain-Croatia end up 2-2 both Spain/Croatia are through.

If Spain-Croatia end up 1-1, it's out of Italy and Croatia who whipped Ireland harder. (presuming Italy win)

If Spain-Croatia end up 0-0 and Italy win versus Ireland it's Spain/Italy through.

If Croatia win, Croatia win group. And qualify with Italy if Italy win their match.

If Croatia win, and Italy don't win. It's Croatia/Spain who qualify.(obvious)

yeah, because if Croatia-Spain is 0-0, then Italy would only need to win to go through. So basically Croatia must score.

but Spain know ofc that if they draw 0-0 and Italy win, Spain will be 2nd. So that gives them an incentive to go for the win, although obviously they don't want to lose

but Spain know ofc that if they draw 0-0 and Italy win, Spain will be 2nd. So that gives them an incentive to go for the win, although obviously they don't want to lose

You think they care who they play out of France and England (most likely). It's not like either is a particularly good or dangerous team. If they had to win to avoid Germany I could understand it, but doubt they feel even remotely threatened by anyone from Group D.

I agree, I think the incentive not to lose is much greater than the incentive to win

yeah. Likelihood is Spain will beat Croatia on football anyway.

well, they know Croatia must score, so sit back and pick them off.

You think they care who they play out of France and England (most likely). It's not like either is a particularly good or dangerous team. If they had to win to avoid Germany I could understand it, but doubt they feel even remotely threatened by anyone from Group D.

They have to win to avoid Germany in the semis

conspiracy theory alert

If we go into the last game in Group C with Spain 4, Croatia 4, Italy 2, Spain and Croatia could engineer a 2-2 draw and send both of them through at Italy's expense?

But the difference with 2004 is that Denmark and Sweden were reasonably evenly matched in terms of quality, so playing for the draw made sense for them; push too hard for the win and you might end up losing. I doubt Spain feels much fear of being eliminated so why would they give two hoots about who goes with them to the QF?

I doubt Spain feels much fear of being eliminated so why would they give two hoots about who goes with them to the QF?

Because you never know who'll make it to the final... Should the Group C runner-up somehow make it all the way to the final, I'm sure Spain would rather meet Croatia than Italy

And because they may want to give their key players a night off, so having the B-team playing for a draw is a reasonable choice.

Thing is the "B" team for Spain is very good... And they'll also want to prove themselves, they won't just go out for some kind of draw Put in the Germany factor for the semis and you have Croatia going home. I really hope I'm wrong, but I can see the Italians squeezing into the next phase

Group B

They have to win to avoid Germany in the semis

Yea winning the group and avoiding Germany in the Semis (which would be known when the Cro v Spa match is played) is good incentive for Spain to win.

I do find it amusing that it is the Italians that again find themselves at the wrong end of a possible 2-2 results.

ah nice el sid.

*England to qualify need an ability to not throw it away.

Group D:

http://livescore.com/euro-2012/group_d/

I don't know what England need to go top.

*If Ukraine win, they qualify at expense of England unless Sweden really whip France.

*If England draw they qualify at expense of Ukraine. They can qualify top drawing only if Sweden win against France.

*If France win, and England win, England need to win by a extra +1 goal margin to come top.

*If France draw, and England draw, obviously France come top.

*If France draw, and England win. Then it'll be England/France order.

As I understand, any Greek win tomorrow will see us go through? (won't happen, but i need some reason to be optimistic).

What will be interesting if somehow Italy or even Croatia top group C the night before, then England/France/Ukraine go into last game knowing that winning group D means you'd play Spain in quarter final !

Surely that will be a bit of a strange feeling to have.

If somehow that did happen, England would easily only have to play for a draw then.

As I understand, any Greek win tomorrow will see us go through? (won't happen, but i need some reason to be optimistic).

that's a confusing one but I believe so.

Yeah that's a strange one as it doesn't sound right given the results, but yes a Greek win qualifies Greece automatically regardless of the score of the win and whatever happens in the other game. A draw or a defeat throws Greece out of the competition tho, obviously.

Quite complicated maths yet it doesn't get any simpler than this - win: qualification, no win: elimination.

Italy can cry foul as much as they want, but once again (like in 2004) it's their fault for failing to win games when it matters.

So, let me see if I'm reading this right...

If Croatia and Spain rig a game, it's all on Italy for not winning?

Amazing.

So, let me see if I'm reading this right...

If Croatia and Spain rig a game, it's all on Italy for not winning?

Amazing.

You don't think Italy are themselves responsible for yet again unnecessarily placing themselves in a postion where they are dependent on what others do? Croatia were ripe for the plucking after 45 minutes, surely Italy can only blame themselves for not killing off the game.

Surely if Croatia and Spain hold out for a draw, Italy win by 3+ goals (which they are capable of against Ireland) then Italy go through, so Croatia won't want the draw will they, or have I missed something here. :confused:

Also, Spain will want to win every match, especially if they play their 'B'team, will want to prove themselves.

The draw needs to be higher than 1-1 to cancel out all possibilities for Italy to go through.

Yeah just read that, so if the draw is 2-2 or more, Italy go out whatever they win by, I see.