EURO 2012 - How accurate is the FM database? (some sort of CA-spoilers)

[Apaco]

Hi, less than one week to go until the start of the Euro 2012!

This is a follow up from my WC 2010 thread ( http://community.sigames.com/showthr...f-CA-spoilers) )

In this thread I will see if the best teams in CA in the latest FM database (12.2) also will win the majority of matches in the Euro 2012. In the World Cup the best team according to the database won in 55% of the matches.

To score a match I find the average CA of the players (and the coach) participating in the match played. If the "worst" team CA-wise win, the "real world" gets the point. If the best team according to the database wins the "database" wins the point.
If a draw the database "wins" if the average CA of the teams are within 5 points. If the average CA of the teams are more than 5 points, and the match ends with a draw, the database will loose and the "real world" will win.

Before the Euro 2012 starts the score is of course: Database vs Real World 0-0

Update will start when the championship starts and will be updated after every match.

And of course, this is not science but just for fun.

As a start I have taken a closer look at the 23 man big squads sent from the different nations divided into the different groups. I have also included the ca of the manager.
This will of course not be the same numbers as the manager will choose 11-14 players in each match.

Group A:
Team Squad average:
Russia 138,6
Czech Rep. 131,1
Poland: 126,9
Greece: 126,8

Best player in group: ca 170
Worst player in group: ca 90


Group B:
Team Squad average:
Germany 156,9
Netherlands 147
Portugal 142
Denmark 133,4

Best player in group: 190
Worst player in group: 95

Group C:
Team Squad average:
Spain 164,6
Italy 150,2
Croatia 137,9
Ireland 130,8

Best player in group: 183
Worst player in group: 110

Group D:
Team Squad average:
France 154,5
England 150
Sweden 135,5
Ukraine 134,1

Best player in group: 180
Worst player in group: 96

This makes a total list when we look at the squads:
1. Spain
2. Germany
3. France
4. Italy
5. England
6. Netherlands
7. Portugal
8. Russia
9. Croatia
10.Sweden
11.Ukraine
12.Denmark
13.Czech
14.Ireland
15.Poland
16.Greece

[TOUGHGUY]

I have gone through the previous thread, interesting - what might also be intriguing is taking the next FM and doing this in retrospect, i.e. after the players have presumably been changed and rated according to the seasons they have had, and their performance at the tournament. I suspect some of the results might be a bit surprising – or indeed not surprising at all, hello England – with countries and players constantly being over/underrated yet somehow performing well. Hardly a definite proof of anything nor a strictly realistic approach but a fun experiment nonetheless.

[Sheer Class]

Have you factored in consistency though? Your assuming that every player will be playing to the top of their game

[Piethief100]

I'm amazed that the database has come out like this. England below Italy, but above the Netherlands? Crikey.

This thread has just gone straight into my favourites though. Looking forward to see how it pans out.

[!.m.!]

Should be interesting, although I'm not sure what the implications are, even in FM the highest CA team doesn't always win. Tactics, form, injuries will play a part. Going to see how it pans out though.

[Apaco]

I have gone through the previous thread, interesting - what might also be intriguing is taking the next FM and doing this in retrospect, i.e. after the players have presumably been changed and rated according to the seasons they have had, and their performance at the tournament. I suspect some of the results might be a bit surprising – or indeed not surprising at all, hello England – with countries and players constantly being over/underrated yet somehow performing well. Hardly a definite proof of anything nor a strictly realistic approach but a fun experiment nonetheless.

I agree that it would be interesting to see this in a retrospect, but the database is no older than a couple of months - so I guess the changes would not be dramaticly big, but I will remember it and see if I can check it when the 2013db comes out.

And as you write in the end, this is nothing but a fun experiment, but it sure showes some strange things. You have several players participating in some squads that would not be regulars in a mediocre norwegian "tippeliga" team..hehe, that's a bit unrealistic - so some flaws do I find when I get deep into the squads. But, this is just for fun!

Have you factored in consistency though? Your assuming that every player will be playing to the top of their game

This would be make it far to much work. I found that current ability would be the "best" way to judge and compare the squads without using my whole spare time to get through the database. This is just for fun, and then I must decrease the factors as much as possible to make the job possible. I still think it gives a rather good possibility to compare the teams againt each other comparing the abilities of the players.

I'm amazed that the database has come out like this. England below Italy, but above the Netherlands? Crikey.

This thread has just gone straight into my favourites though. Looking forward to see how it pans out.

Glad to hear that you will follow this thread. I agree that the database shows some strange things. England would have been rated more like Germany if Lampard, Ferdinand, Carrick and another 3.rd goalie than Butland had been included. When it comes to Netherlands (and Portugal) their deffensive players are rated very low compared to what I thought they would be. But, this is the whole squads, when we start looking at the matches, many players will be excluded and things can come out differently (the depth in the squads varies a lot)

By the way, sorry for my bad english, it's not among my 3 best languages therefore it can be a bit bad grammar and spelling :-)

[Nobby_McDonald]

Looks a fairly accurate reflection of where the abilities of each nations squads lie.

[SCIAG]

I'm amazed that the database has come out like this. England below Italy, but above the Netherlands? Crikey.

The Dutch are really pulled down by their defence, in real life as well as the DB. Imagine if the likes of Boularouz, Bouma and Mathjisen were in the England squad.

[Davey Boy]

Woohoo Ireland aren't last

[Apaco]

Match 1:

Poland vs Greece:

Average CA of Poland (12 players + manager): 133,8

Average CA of Greece (14 players + manager): 128

According to the db it should be a close victory for Poland:

Result: 1-1

Real world vs Database: 1-0.

[Kadzidlo]

How will a game be a draw in the database? it's almost going to be impossible for both teams to have the same CA. So what factors are you adding in to decide if the Database produces a draw?

[!.m.!]

Is 128 and 133 not 5 apart? Which is a database result?

[Kadzidlo]

i'd say so, except Poland were playing at home so that needs to be accounted for too.

[Apaco]

How will a game be a draw in the database? it's almost going to be impossible for both teams to have the same CA. So what factors are you adding in to decide if the Database produces a draw?

If the difference between the teams are within an average of CA 5. That happened some times during the world cup and it almost happened in the first match in this tournament.
If you ask a researcher to increase the CA of a player with 5, they will call it a massive boost for that player so that's why I don't find the difference to small. It can differs about 60 CA points between the teams
and the db will still win at a draw with my rules, so in case the db are made with to high difference between the players, and to that I can agree :-)

Is 128 and 133 not 5 apart? Which is a database result?

It's 5.8 and that's more than 5. If the world record is 9.59, you don't beat it by running on 9.61 :-)

[Apaco]

Match 2:

Russia vs Czech Republic:

Average CA of Russia: 141

Average CA of Czech: 134,7


According to the db: A close victory for Russia

Result: 4-1

Real world vs Database: 1-1.

[BamBamBam]

You not accounting for draws?

[Apaco]

You not accounting for draws?

Yeah I do and I have tried to explain it twice. If the two teams are within a CA of 5 - the db gets the draw, because then the db sees the teams as rather equal. If the difference between the two teams are more than an average of CA 5 - the "real world" gets the draw.

[Fabio MVP]

Apaco this test of yours is not valid on many levels.

[Charlie_B]

I'm sure Apaco knows that comparing average CA is at best an extremely vague indication of team ability. It's still an interesting thread.

[Apaco]

Match 3:

Holland vs Denmark:

Average CA of Holland: 153,3

Average CA of Denmark: 136,5

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Holland:

Result: 0-1

Real world vs Database: 2-1

[Apaco]

Apaco this test of yours is not valid on many levels.

Whats the point with your comment?? Read the answer from the post under from Charlie_B

I'm a researcher myself for a couple of teams so I know very well how rating a player is done, and CA is a rather important part of how a player is - but I know it's far from the only important factor.
If you had cared to read this thread before coming with pointsless comments you would have seen that this is just about fun, and nothing else.

[Apaco]

Match 4:

Germany vs Portugal:

Average CA of Germany: 161,8

Average CA of Portugal: 147,9

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany:

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 2-2

[!.m.!]

What result what you deem successful or expect. As in I would expect the database to probably be able to win by 3 or 4.

[Piethief100]

Whats the point with your comment?? Read the answer from the post under from Charlie_B

I'm a researcher myself for a couple of teams so I know very well how rating a player is done, and CA is a rather important part of how a player is - but I know it's far from the only important factor.
If you had cared to read this thread before coming with pointsless comments you would have seen that this is just about fun, and nothing else.

You're quite right.

It's interesting to keep an eye on, and I know a few of us are doing so. Please keep it up!

(And come on Ireland!)

[Apaco]

Match 5:

Spain vs Italy:

Average CA of Spain: 168,5

Average CA of Italy: 154

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Spain:

Result: 1-1

Real world vs Database: 3-2

[Apaco]

What result what you deem successful or expect. As in I would expect the database to probably be able to win by 3 or 4.

At the world cup the db won 55% of the matches. At least I would expect a higher percentage than that. In the db it's quite a big gap between the top 4-5 nations and the rest, so the database needs those teams to go far to win :-)

[Apaco]

Match 6:

Croatia vs Ireland:

Average CA of Croatia: 142,5

Average CA of Ireland: 136

According to the db it should be a victory for Croatia:

Result: 3-1

Real world vs Database: 3-3

[La Furia Roja]

who do you research?

[Apaco]

Match 7:

England vs France:

Average CA of England: 153,1

Average CA of France: 156,5

According to the db it should be a victory for France or a draw.

Result: 1-1

Real world vs Database: 3-4

[Apaco]

who do you research?

I research a couple of norwegian teams.

[Apaco]

Match 8:

Ukraine vs Sweden:

Average CA of Ukraine: 137,8
Average CA of Sweden: 139,1

According to the db it should be a victory for Sweden or a draw.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 4-4

[Koki]

Very interesting thread. Even if it's not highly scientific, it is fun to read though. But one question:

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany:
Result: 1-0
Real world vs Database: 2-2

The DB predicts an easy victory for Germany and you give the point to the DB although the victory wasn't so easy. The same with the close victory for Russia which wasn't really close. So "easy" and "close" are just words that are not taken into account for distributing the points, right?

[Apaco]

Match 9:

Czech Rep vs Greece:

Average CA of Czech: 134,9
Average CA of Greece: 126,7

According to the db it should be a victory for Czech rep.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 4-5

[Apaco]

Very interesting thread. Even if it's not highly scientific, it is fun to read though. But one question:
The DB predicts an easy victory for Germany and you give the point to the DB although the victory wasn't so easy. The same with the close victory for Russia which wasn't really close. So "easy" and "close" are just words that are not taken into account for distributing the points, right?

Thanks.
Yes, I use the words to say something about the predictions (if the average ca is about 10 in difference - I call it an "easy" victory etc, but as you see it's nok taken into account. That would only make more rules and make it more complicated

[Apaco]

Match 10:

Russia vs Poland:

Average CA of Russia: 142,8
Average CA of Poland: 132,6

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Russia.

Result: 1-1

Real world vs Database: 5-5

[alanbiley]

Like the thread, for what it's worth. Just makes me think what a shame it is that FM doesn't provide the tool for you to simply set up a one-off match with the players/managers of your choice and play it out in the match engine. THAT would be a great way to look at the Euro's.

[sporadicsmiles]

I like this idea a lot. It is so far showing no correlation between real life and database. I predict a 50-50 split by the end, the sample size should be big enough for that.

mmm stats =}

[forzamr_b]

Hi Apaco,

Very interesting thread. I came across a Euro 2012 pack for FM. It will enable accurate groupings in-game as well as start the game with accurate squads. However, the latest start date available in FM is Feb 2012, so squads may change in-game when the tournament starts.

Anyways, I want to add an additional element to these tests and include the ME. It'll be interesting to see how much influence CA has on the ME in full sim and how accurately the ME reflects the real world. I won't hijack this thread, so I'll post my results here: http://community.sigames.com/showthr...CA-spoilers%29

I hope I have your blessing =)

[Apaco]

Match 11:

Portugal vs Denmark:

Average CA of Portugal: 147,4
Average CA of Denmark: 136

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Portugal.

Result: 3-2

Real world vs Database: 5-6

[Apaco]

Match 12:

Germany vs Holland:

Average CA of Germany: 160,8
Average CA of Holland: 152,9

According to the db it should be a victory for Germany.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 5-7


First day that the database had the best team as winners in both matches!

[Apaco]

Match 13:

Italy vs Croatia:

Average CA of Italy: 153,8
Average CA of Croatia: 143,3

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Italy.

Result: 1-1

Real world vs Database: 6-7

[Apaco]

Match 14:

Spain vs Ireland:

Average CA of Spain: 167,6
Average CA of Ireland: 132,9

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Spain.

Result: 4-0

Real world vs Database: 6-8

[Apaco]

Match 15:

France vs Ukraine:

Average CA of France: 154,8
Average CA of Ukraine: 136,4

According to the db it should be an easy victory for France.

Result: 2-0

Real world vs Database: 6-9

[Apaco]

Match 16:

England vs Sweden:

Average CA of England: 153,7
Average CA of Sweden: 139,5

According to the db it should be an easy victory for England.

Result: 3-2

Real world vs Database: 6-10

[!.m.!]

3 in a row. Database is running away with it now.

[Apaco]

3 in a row. Database is running away with it now.

Yeah, the db is doing good now - but it has also been a big difference in ca between the teams in the last 3 matches, so the db really should get this games too.
By now the db has got it right in 62,5% of the matches, in the world cup it was right in 55% of the matches - so it's doing better, but still 15 matches to go!
To be continued

[Apaco]

Match 17:

Russia vs Greece:

Average CA of Russia: 141,8
Average CA of Greece: 129,6

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Russia.

Result: 0-1

Real world vs Database: 7-10

Match 18:

Czech Rep vs Poland:

Average CA of Czech: 133,9
Average CA of Poland: 133,1

According to the db it should be a victory for Czech or a draw.

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 7-11


The 2nd and 4th best team from the group went through to the next round, so the db had one right and one wrong here too

[Nobby_McDonald]

Match 16:

England vs Sweden:

Average CA of England: 153,7
Average CA of Sweden: 139,5

According to the db it should be an easy victory for England.

Result: 3-2

Real world vs Database: 6-10

It didn't look like an easy victory to me.

[Apaco]

Match 19:

Germany vs Denmark:

Average CA of Germany: 160,8
Average CA of Denmark: 136

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 7-12

Match 20:

Holland vs Portugal:

Average CA of Holland: 153,1
Average CA of Portugal: 145,6

According to the db it should be a victory for Holland.

Result: 1-2

Real world vs Database: 8-12

In this group did the best and the 3rd best team according to the db go through, so 1 right and 1 wrong for the db also in this group.

[Apaco]

It didn't look like an easy victory to me.

Me neither, that game was filled with bad defending both ways.

[!.m.!]

Match 19:

Germany vs Denmark:

Average CA of Germany: 160,8
Average CA of Denmark: 136

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 7-11

Match 20:

Holland vs Portugal:

Average CA of Holland: 153,1
Average CA of Portugal: 145,6

According to the db it should be a victory for Holland.

Result: 1-2

Real world vs Database: 8-11

In this group did the best and the 3rd best team according to the db go through, so 1 right and 1 wrong for the db also in this group.

Should be 8-12 mate.

[Sikker]

Match 18:

Czech Rep vs Poland:

Average CA of Czech: 133,9
Average CA of Poland: 133,1

According to the db it should be a victory for Czech or a draw.

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 7-11


The 2nd and 4th best team from the group went through to the next round, so the db had one right and one wrong here too

Match 19:

Germany vs Denmark:

Average CA of Germany: 160,8
Average CA of Denmark: 136

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany.

Result: 2-1

Real world vs Database: 7-11

Match 20:

Holland vs Portugal:

Average CA of Holland: 153,1
Average CA of Portugal: 145,6

According to the db it should be a victory for Holland.

Result: 1-2

Real world vs Database: 8-11

In this group did the best and the 3rd best team according to the db go through, so 1 right and 1 wrong for the db also in this group.

You forgot to count the first match so I guess the standing is 8-12

Edit: And beaten to it

[Apaco]

Thanks and thanks! Fixed the score now

[Nobby_McDonald]

Me neither, that game was filled with bad defending both ways.

So how come the database got the win in that one? 3-2 is not an easy victory.

[Apaco]

So how come the database got the win in that one? 3-2 is not an easy victory.

It's been answered before, just read the thread

[Apaco]

Match 21:

Spain vs Croatia:

Average CA of Spain: 167,6
Average CA of Croatia: 141,5

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Spain.

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 8-13

Match 22:

Italy vs Ireland:

Average CA of Italy: 153,6
Average CA of Ireland: 136

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Italy.

Result: 2-0

Real world vs Database: 8-14


First group where the 2 best teams according to the db also went through to the quarter-finals!

[Apaco]

Match 23:

Sweden vs France:

Average CA of Sweden: 138,6
Average CA of France: 155,4

According to the db it should be an easy victory for France.

Result: 2-0

Real world vs Database: 9-14

Match 24:

England vs Ukraine:

Average CA of England: 155,5
Average CA of Ukraine: 133,8

According to the db it should be an easy victory for England.

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 9-15

[Apaco]

Match 25:

Portugal vs Czech:

Average CA of Portugal: 147,3
Average CA of Czech: 131,2

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Portugal.

Result: 1-0

Real world vs Database: 9-16

[Apaco]

Match 26:

Germany vs Greece:

Average CA of Germany: 161,2
Average CA of Greece: 129,3

According to the db it should be an easy victory for Germany.

Result: 4-1

Real world vs Database: 9-17

[Apaco]

Match 27:

Spain vs France:

Average CA of Spain: 168,1
Average CA of France: 157

According to the db it should be a rather easy victory for Spain.

Result: 2-0

Real world vs Database: 9-18

Now the database has had the correct result in 2 out of 3 matches! 4 matches to go!

[Apaco]

Match 28:

England vs Italy

Average CA of England: 156,2
Average CA of Italy: 152,4

According to db it should be a win for England or a draw.

Result: 0-0 (Italy won after penalty)

Real world vs Databse: 9-19

[SCIAG]

The database is running away with it.

[Koki]

Hmm, I'm looking for a different term for "Real world". Because technically, all matches were played in the real world, thus, the real world got it right 27 times

[Apaco]

Match 29:

Spain vs Portugal

Average CA of Spain: 167,7
Average CA of Portugal: 145,7

According to db it should be an easy win for Spain.

Result: 0-0 (Spain won after penalty)

Real world vs Databse: 10-19

[Apaco]

The database is running away with it.

Yeah. The database seems to get 2 out of 3 matches right this time. Compared to the world cup 2 years ago it's a lot better.

[Apaco]

Match 30:

Germany vs Italy

Average CA of Germany: 161,4
Average CA of Italy: 153,2

According to db it should be a win for Germany.

Result: 1-2

Real world vs Databse: 11-19

[Apaco]

Match 31:

Spain vs Italy

Average CA of Spain: 168,2
Average CA of Italy: 154,3

According to db it should be an easy victory for Spain.

Result 4-0

Real world vs Databse 11-20

Database was right in 64,5% of the matches....almost 10% better than in the World Cup.


If we look at the best teams that the nations has used in this tournament:

1. Spain: CA 168,5 - ended as winner!
2. Germany: CA 161,8 - semi final.
3. France: CA 157,0 - Quarter final.
4. England: CA 155,5 - Quarter final.
5. Italy: Ca 154,0 - 2. place!
6. Holland: Ca 153,3 - Group stage
7. Portugal: Ca 147,9 - Semi final
8. Croatia: Ca 143,3 - Group stage
9. Russia: Ca 142,8 - Group stage
10. Sweden Ca 139,5 - Group stage
11: Ukraine Ca 137,8 - Group stage
12: Denmark: Ca 136,5 - Group stage
13: Ireland Ca 136,0 - Group stage
14: Czech rep Ca 134,9 - Quarter final
15: Poland Ca 133,8 - Group Stage
16: Greece: Ca 129,6 - Quarter final

[MrPompey]

FACT - FM database won

Suggest you do this on the new FM13 db when it comes out and get down the bookies - Sorted

[Wege]

Well done. Sick thread. Good to know our database is competent.

[Nocuous]

When you consider that England are artificially high (because most of the customers are from England), then the database has done very well.

[Fabio MVP]

When you consider that England are artificially high (because most of the customers are from England), then the database has done very well.

You're very wrong.

[Sikker]

You're very wrong.

Normally one would back such a statement with an argument...

[Govnar1]

I would be very interested to hear how English fans perceive ability of their national team (physical, mental and technical ability of players)? Do fans blame players or managers or both for perceived lack of success in past 20 years? In my personal (and very biased) opinion managers definitely were not the problem (8 different managers + 3 caretakers) nor was the undeniably poor technical ability of most English players. The real problem is that English players for some reason really lack tactical intelligence and discipline.

[Fabio MVP]

Normally one would back such a statement with an argument...

Really? To back a statement without argument with an argument? Of course that isn't correct if you count ''because most of the customers are from England'' as an argument?

[samdiatmh]

I would be very interested to hear how English fans perceive ability of their national team (physical, mental and technical ability of players)? Do fans blame players or managers or both for perceived lack of success in past 20 years? In my personal (and very biased) opinion managers definitely were not the problem (8 different managers + 3 caretakers) nor was the undeniably poor technical ability of most English players. The real problem is that English players for some reason really lack tactical intelligence and discipline.

i feel that it's due to the immense physicality of the english premier league
players become so adapted to playing to that style, just a shame that it doesn't work internationally

of course, you've also got the quality of the players as well
the fact that almost 50% of the English team comes from mid-table teams such as Everton/Villa/Liverpool(to an extent) speaks volumes, especially when most great nations have their from the top teams
(Spain is dominated by Real and Barca players; Italy is AC, Inter and Juve; Germany is Bayern and Dortmund)

also think that the media is partly an issue too, the team is so focussed on not failing, that negativity creeps into the play (see match vs Algeria in SouthAfrica)
it's probably the appeasal of these why most of the squad that FAILED to qualify for Euro2008 is still playing, despite the talented youth coming through (England u19s made the Euro u19s final back in 10, they lost to Ukraine - they've continually made the u19 competition as well)

it's not just one thing, but a whole heap of issues

edit: with regards to OP, i'd have expected the database to predict mainly correct
the scouting team in FM is second to none, and there's plenty of discussion in the data issues sections

[Piethief100]

It did turn out to be an interesting read after the Euros.

Now, I wonder how much you would have won, or lost, if you had put a fiver on each database predicted winner for every game.