Where does SI get the match odds from as I would like to make that my bookie ;)

[daylight]

Honestly it makes no sense.

I am playing as Nuneaton and after 2 promotions I am in League 2,I spend hours and hours searching through free players and get myself some real finds(1 who is rated as a future leading Premier league player of the future),Anyway..

I start the season and even though I am predicted to finish 24th my players(as I expected)are doing really well and we sit in 2nd place after some 15 match's.

Now this is really starting to bug me but I am playing teams in say 23rd place or 20th place and I am given odd's of 7/2 to win!
It is just insane.

On top of that it seems it is a steamroller effect and the guy predicting the result says I will lose and then to add even more insult my assistant manager gives the pre-match talk "tell the team we have nothing to loss as we are the underdogs".

Honestly this begs belief,my team is far better and we have shown it on the pitch.
No bookmaker would give these odds,neither would the football focus guys give these predictions,also no assistant manager worth their salt would tell a better team they are the underdogs and just to enjoy the game.

Does this match engine just continue too use the pre-season information and disregard the actual form of the teams as that is the only thing I can think of for this situation.

[mije1983]

I think the pre match odds are mainly based on reputation. As you have had such a rapid rise I would guess your rep hasn't gone up as quickly which is why you are often underdogs.

[daylight]

Would that explain my assistant manager giving a team talk saying we are the underdogs?

Honestly we have been playing great and are some 25-30 points clear of these other teams but still all the way down the line from odd's to assistant manager talks they are so much better than us,it really feels like a match engine fault here and not a rep problem.

[mije1983]

Would that explain my assistant manager giving a team talk saying we are the underdogs?

If the assman's team talks uses the same reasoning as the match odds, yes.

[daylight]

If the assman's team talks uses the same reasoning as the match odds, yes.

So it is a match engine bug

[mije1983]

So it is a match engine bug

No, because it has nothing to do with the match engine.

Rep is used for a lot of reasons in game and I'm guessing it's the easiest and fairest way to determine a wide range of situations. While it's not ideal (as you have pointed out), it's better than just using league position. In that case you could get a newly promoted team as favourites away to Man Utd just because they happen to be above them after 3 games.

[Dr. Hook]

Something that reflects the reality is the "I" guy at the match preview screen,y'know the doofus "I fancy XX to just about win this one." That seems to better account for form and league standing than the bookie odds which are seemingly all about rep.

[FrazT]

Its not a match engine issue, but as was said above, it is based on the club reputation. If you start at the bottom, then it can take some time for your success to be fully reflected in the reputation figure, so that is reflected in match odds. I also believe that the odds do not change throughout the season, so current form is not a factor.

[daylight]

so current form is not a factor.

Pretty unrealistic then.

Also that would not answer why my assistant manager keeps giving the team talks saying we are the underdogs and just go out and enjoy the match,if we are in second place playing a team in the relegation spots I am sure the assistant would be telling them to get stuck in.

[haunted1234]

the problem here is as i see it, the "media predicitions" are generated at the start of the season, so taking into account your team at this point, you are seeded 24th, as you said took you a while getting some transfers done etc... but this prediction never gets re-evaluated so you will be just sitting 24th whole season, nothing else matters anymore at this point

[daylight]

as you said took you a while getting some transfers done etc

It took about a week of game time,many many hours in real time.

Yeah I figured it just went by my pre-season seeding but surely this should be adjusted as the season progresses.
Also the Asst Man's team talks are just pure wrong at this point as he should know how good the team is,maybe something they can work on for future releases.

[dafuge]

The match odds have always been a bit dodgy, this one always makes me laugh.

[bearsy2]

Ive the same issue in my game. I've won the league as Newcastle for the last 3 years, and many cups including a Euro Champs Cup and only now am I considered SECOND favourite for the title at the start of my 4th season. Ah well.

[Koki]

The match odds should take more into account than just reputation. I was just promoted to the 2nd division, won my first match 6-0 against the team with media prediction 3rd and the next thing I read is: "Club XY are going to have a hard time to survive"... I just hate these moments when you can't pretend that FM is real...

[Brilliantine Mortality]

This always bugs me a bit. I recently faced Everton (who had already been relegated as bottom placed team) with my Worcester team in our second season in the Premiership with three games to go. I was 6th and about 8 points of 7th but the odds in the match preview suggested that I didn't have a hope in hell of beating them. Surely there could be a tweak in the odds/team talk suggestion that takes into account recent form/long term league position. I'm not complaining it's just a tad annoying having to disregard some of the 'Match day info' and apply some common sense to the situation.

Actually now I say that I realise that things like this, in a weird way, actually endear me more to the game. FM has been full of these little quirks for as long as I've played it and I love it for it. I suppose I'm a sucker for the unfinished, 'work in progress' feel about it. Perfection in imperfection.

[scott MUFC]

Chelsea wre givewn match odds against my man utd side for the stamford bridge leg of a champions league match