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Thread: When do you give up on a youth player who almost makes it?

  1. #1
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    Question When do you give up on a youth player who almost makes it?

    I was just wondering when do you guys think thats enough in a youngsters development? For example their always the cull when their youth contracts expire, but I was wondering about players who almost make it but not good enough so in their early 20s or earlier?
    I always tend to hope and loan them out and basically let them go in the last year of their contract if their potential was ok (so for me Man Utd decent/good EPL level , so i can make a profit of selling if they turn out at decent level ) but they just havent progressed then i tend to offer out or loan them out and hope they have increased when they get back for me to offer a new contract.

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    When I feel it is right for any given player. I don't have a hard and fast rule.

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    I never have a general rule as well depends on weather I like the player personally or not etc. However for youth I find 21 is normally the time their development begins to slow down unless their a keeper. I'll loan them 3 or 4 seasons in a row until that time and then play them as back up to the team or sell them. Though sometimes I'll just go and sack 10/11 half a start U18's to clear up space.

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    Its always difficult, ain't it? I mean, if you had a kid since he was 17, and he was highly touted, and now here you are, looking at a 23 year old striker, barely started a game in his life, with good pace, but poor technical and mental attributes, pretty much like he was at 17, just marginally better! I try to remember that when I see a youth at 19 or 20 or 21 that I really like, and remind myself, get him into the first team sooner rather than later! If they haven't made an impression on me after getting a bit of a look in then I will loan then until they are around 23, because value can increase quite a lot from 21 to 23 even when the attributes don't change all that much. And I don't like seeing my rejects then go on to develop as stars, because it means I messed up, and sold early, or even worse, gave up on them too early!

    So yeah, if its a player I like I always tell myself they will keep improving (with more match experience) till they are 26/27 (slower, but still improving), and if its a player I have become disappointed with their progress its loan deals till about 23, and then the final judgement! Have a good season on loan? Win French Most Promising Youngster, or similar award? Welcome to the first team!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nobby_McDonald View Post
    When I feel it is right for any given player. I don't have a hard and fast rule.
    Just wondered not as a rule as such but if there was any general guidance you use :P

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    Generally, I take a long look at the player in the summer window in the last year of his contract (usually 18-21 years), then an equally long look in the youth team to see if there is anyone there that will surpass him given the first-team time he would get.

    Then I try to sell or loan them out for the season, not because the money is important but because I'd like the players coming from my youth team to reach their potential and not rot in some reserve team (including mine).

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    It depends for me, if I've got a player who has 4-5 star potential at 16-18 and by the time they're 21-22 but have played enough games, been loaned out and tutored by the best players available and they've dropped to less than 3 stars then they're sold at the highest price to however will have them. Which is usually a lower league team, I'll occasionally check up on them though to check if they've improved

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    If after 2-3 years they've not progressed at all, even after loan spells and first team chances, (I usually sign youngsters at about 16-17), then I'll usually sell them. General rule though is that I sell them for nothing up front, but 50% of next sale. Non negotiable. Will also put a 5-10 million buy back price on them. So if I've made a mistake, I can rectify it without paying too much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BiggusD View Post
    Generally, I take a long look at the player in the summer window in the last year of his contract (usually 18-21 years), then an equally long look in the youth team to see if there is anyone there that will surpass him given the first-team time he would get.

    Then I try to sell or loan them out for the season, not because the money is important but because I'd like the players coming from my youth team to reach their potential and not rot in some reserve team (including mine).
    Same here although I don't always loan. I try to sell with a 50% sell on but if there are no takers and the player is of reasonable quality then I may even extend his contract by a year. If your a biggish club there are usually takers first time round anyway.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chalky1989 View Post
    If after 2-3 years they've not progressed at all, even after loan spells and first team chances, (I usually sign youngsters at about 16-17), then I'll usually sell them. General rule though is that I sell them for nothing up front, but 50% of next sale. Non negotiable. Will also put a 5-10 million buy back price on them. So if I've made a mistake, I can rectify it without paying too much.
    Good thinking. I have recently had to cull some promising lads just due to having way way too many up coming RM and RW (I wanted to make sure one of them was good enough, I guess) and if I can get a buyback I am happy, but I will never sell without a % of next sale, for the very same reason, in case I need to buy the lad back!

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    Usually sell at 19 if they haven't played a first team league game by that point, such is the quality of youths I pick up. Those who look promising but could do with first team football I try to sell with a buy-back clause and 50% sell on clause.

    I recently had a young Spanish striker come through my youth system who attracted interest from Barca when he was 17. His physicals weren't improving as well as I would like and thought being at Barca would mould him more, so sold him for £2.8m, £7m buy-back, and 40% sell on clause. As it transpired, he couldn't agree a new contract with them so he came back to me on a free, and though he had improved greatly, he still wasn't good enough to cement a regular place. One season being back with me, and I sold him to Inter for £15.75m. I wanted him to make it with me but he was just short of the quality required... but £18m isn't a bad return on him.

  12. #12

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    Its also important to sometimes give a player a chance. Sometimes I have had a player in the ranks for a full year, and not used them (because they are 18 or 19, but I want them training with the first team, and available for selection) and they spend the next year on loan. Well, on attributes alone the player maybe doesn't deserve a run in the team, but I have a player on my team that the scouts rated as having potential of 2.5 stars, with the current star forwards rated at 3 or even 3.5.

    I gave the kid a look in because of his work rate and finishing, and he is even now the only forward without pace that I will tolerate (12 or 13 pace, 14 acc), but the fact is, the kid scores goals. By the bucketload. More than faster players, more than better rated players, more than two-footed players... He can win headers, and whip in a very deadly corner (19). Basically he is a fantastic role player, and truth is, I rate him a lot higher than the scouts do!

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    scouts know nothing really, I buy certain players because they bring certain things to the team.
    i signed a fantastic newgen, well not fantastic, but decent as a backup right back, have no hesitation in using him over evra.
    and tutoring can change a lot. I signed Tony Trindade de Vilhena for man utd in my first season, tutored by ryan giggs his determination has gone up by 7, and is developing into a very nice central midfielder.
    Last edited by scott MUFC; 07-04-2012 at 02:52.

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    I'm currently managing in Germany at Bayern, i like how there youth is set up. I will move a player from the Under 19's to the under 23 then if he's a success in both i will give him a few games in the first team. If he fails at under 19s he will be shipped off but if he does well in the U19s but fails to grow in the U23 then il loan him out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ncfc_king View Post
    I'm currently managing in Germany at Bayern, i like how there youth is set up. I will move a player from the Under 19's to the under 23 then if he's a success in both i will give him a few games in the first team. If he fails at under 19s he will be shipped off but if he does well in the U19s but fails to grow in the U23 then il loan him out.
    This is slightly off topic but I have a question regarding your post. In Germany, do players in the U23's use youth training schedules like the U19's or is it like other nations reserve leagues where you can put them on first team schedules?

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    After youth league, I keep them in reserves/first team for a year to develop them a bit more to my liking, if they are not ready to start I loan them out after that, if in their loan they stagnate (I always view staff of the loaner and make sure they are ok) and get bad ratings, I feel dissapointed, when they come back have a last look at them, they may have stayed the same, so loan out - sell - keep as back up depending on what I see.

    @Gee_Simpson
    My German reserves use the youth training if players are changed directly from the youth team, 18 or below, not sure if it is age dependant or from which team you put them into reserves. EG: not sure if an 18 yr old from first team will go on youth training if changed from first team.
    Not a lot of help I am sure, but when season finishes I have to put my youth into first team if I want them trained the same as the first team, in U23 they remain on the youth training.

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    For me it is usually age 21 - I will have a look at their attributes and if they do not look very good then they are sold.

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    Yeah 21 for me. When they get to the age that they need to be registered in the 25 man squad I get rid if they're aren't good enough. I like to keep the younger players around and keep sending them out on loan even if I know they won't be good enough for me it can generate interest from buyers if they're performing at a lower level.

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    if i bring them in under 18 then i think 21 is a good cut off point as they have 5 to 6 years to develop depends on age if there a bit older i give them till bout 23 if there just not good enough at 23 then its bye bye but to be honest the way this fm is normally just pop them in my reserves till there contract goes

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blidly View Post
    Just wondered not as a rule as such but if there was any general guidance you use :P
    Probably the only 'rule' I do have is if they are good enough they are old enough. I had a 16 year old who I put straight in the first team at Newcastle Town in the Conference Premier. After scoring nearly a goal a game for two seasons, I sold him to Manchester United and a few years later he is England's record scorer.

    That sort of player comes through very rarely though.

    In terms of how long I give them, it's how long I see fit. Some players are worth perserverance, some aren't.

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    If I feel that a youth player is good enough to be developed further, I will draft him into the first team and let him stay there.

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    I keep the average players, yes they might be worse than the whole of my starting side but I'd rather not spend money on backups.
    Last edited by hursty2; 12-04-2012 at 09:13.

  23. #23
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    I re-evaluate my younger players twice a year, january and july.

    Those who can't contribute to the club, not even in the future, get sold or axed ASAP... Nothing worse than keeping a kid around just because the coach "sees" something it's not really there or isn't going to develop and ending up with a "never-was" on a costly 3 years contract and no appeal.

    So if I have a "promising" 19yo player who's clearly NOT going to cut it, I'll sell him in a heartbeat, before it's too late.

    Luckly AI still can't separate a brilliant prospect from a glittering turd, so as long as the future skill (aka PA) is high enough they'll pay good money for players who are bound to fail

  24. #24
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    I'll usually give a player until he's 22 or 23. Sometimes I have a really good prospect, who is good enough to play but just can't dislodge the senior player or other young prospect. It's a tragic waste sometimes because you'll see him go on to have a good career somewhere else or even to have a worse career he would have had staying with you.

    I've made numerous mistakes selling strikers I thought weren't up to it, only to see them go on to become 30/40 goal a season strikers elsewhere.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by santy001 View Post
    I'll usually give a player until he's 22 or 23. Sometimes I have a really good prospect, who is good enough to play but just can't dislodge the senior player or other young prospect. It's a tragic waste sometimes because you'll see him go on to have a good career somewhere else or even to have a worse career he would have had staying with you.

    I've made numerous mistakes selling strikers I thought weren't up to it, only to see them go on to become 30/40 goal a season strikers elsewhere.
    I don't think that is relevant as an argument against selling him. Not because hindsight isn't better sight, but because a striker could easily score 80 goals in 40 matches for the AI without this being an indication that he would necessarily have strengthened your team. This would have been a mistake only if his development after leaving you made him into a player that would provide something unique to the team as a whole. Any good player isn't just any good player, since every attribute and ppm combination is unique.

    If you sold a prospect that looked to have stagnated (but hadn't) and signed a prospect that looked to become a worldwide star (but didn't), I would say that was a mistake, but if the player you signed went on to fulfil his potential too then it is really a non-issue.

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    That has taught me something though, it made me realize players don't stop developing at 22 or 23, when they are talented and have untapped potential, of course. I have seen some late bloomers, players who don't really kick on in their career until 25 or 26. And it made me realize my scouts are better at judging talents than my coaches, and that even if a coach says a player is 3 stars with 3 stars Potential, it doesn't mean he can't improve. And when an already good player improves, they usually become great players!

    I sold a striker to Valencia for some $50m, because he had been on the team for a decade (he was 27) we had atleast 3 other top class strikers, and there were youth who needed 1st team playing time to develop. He went on to score quite an obscene amount of goals for Valencia, but atleast I knew I got a top price for him, and that I had to sell one of my strikers at that time.

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    I play in Italy, so it's something like...

    - Every promising young player gets an initial pre-contract that takes them to 19-20 (depending on what they ask for).
    - Every young player who performs well for the youth team is rewarded with a contract, regardless of whether they are promising or not (the reasoning is that they deserve it, and their performances might transfer over to other teams when on loan, meaning I can make money through sell-on clauses when I do sell them)
    - Most players go out on loan 2-3 times. Some walk straight into my first-team, of course, while others might take 4 or even 5 loans depending on my squad depth and my level of certainty.
    - At 20-22, I start to make decisions on whether I sell the player or not that season. I never sell players before 20 as a hard rule, even the rubbish ones, because I can usually sell them for more a year later once they develop further on loan. Exceptions exist for truly outrageous offers or problematic players.
    - At 22-24, if I get a tempting co-ownership offer and I'm unsure about a player, I usually accept it. I never accept co-ownerships for players I know will make the first-team in the future.
    - By 23-24, they are usually either in the team or I sell them. I try to give every player a fair shot at the first-team unless they've had 4 or more loans, in which case I usually just sell them because it's taken too long. I try to give players at least one season in the first team if I give them a try.

    I evaluate players every 6 months and send players on half-year loans in January if I think they are required, or if my youth team is too deep and there's too much rotation.

    So I sort of "give up" at 24, give or take a year depending on loan circumstances and the depth of my squad, or if I get a tempting offer - whichever comes first.

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