city population <-> match attendance

Is match attendance in any way affected by a city's population? For example, you run a club in a small town (say 4k citizens) and you just got a stadium expansion that brings your stadium capacity to 8000 and the club's reputation is Local/Regional. Would the stadium stay empty during games simply because of the lack of citizens, despite good results/attractive play?

Also, I'm eager to figure out whether a city's population grows as time progresses in the game, and if it does, is a local club's successes of any influence on the growth?

Or does a city's population actually have no/little effect on match attendances and should I ignore the fact altogether?

Is match attendance in any way affected by a city's population? For example, you run a club in a small town (say 4k citizens) and you just got a stadium expansion that brings your stadium capacity to 8000 and the club's reputation is Local/Regional. Would the stadium stay empty during games simply because of the lack of citizens, despite good results/attractive play?

Also, I'm eager to figure out whether a city's population grows as time progresses in the game, and if it does, is a local club's successes of any influence on the growth?

Or does a city's population actually have no/little effect on match attendances and should I ignore the fact altogether?

Personally, I think that match attendance is one of the great mysteries of the universe! My attendance never really makes sense to me, as it always seems rather low, even when playing well or playing rivals.

I think it does have an effect. I don't use the editor, but I remember reading there's something called a "catchment fanbase" (its probably called something else), which is something like the largest average attendance a team can have after loads of success, and the size of the town/city that the team is based in affects the size of this.

I could be wrong though.

It seems fair to me, I think attendance is affected by your performance and reputation. Town size probably isn't that much of a factor as you might get an unspecified amount of fans from the surrounding countryside.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Fire Bracelet:

It seems fair to me, I think attendance is affected by your performance and reputation. Town size probably isn't that much of a factor as you might get an unspecified amount of fans from the surrounding countryside. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Or the other way around - a club from a small town may attract fans from a nearby metropolis.

Maybe it related...if the game realistic enough...I never think about it...my team is maybe come from a place with less population so not much attendance every time....

i think it is but if not it should be. also depends on how many top clubs are around you as well.

even if accrington stanly got to the premiership in 10 seasons and managed to integrate themselves in the premiership i doubt they'd be able to get that many fans still.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by postal postie:

i think it is but if not it should be. also depends on how many top clubs are around you as well.

even if accrington stanly got to the premiership in 10 seasons and managed to integrate themselves in the premiership i doubt they'd be able to get that many fans still. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

That's cool.

I always thought it should be like that.

So if Man U and Man C were in league two, then Bolton, Blackburn & Wigan (if in prem) would get huge attendaces as they'd be drawing support from the big city.

I don't think it works that way currently.

Catchment fanbase? Never heard of it. Anyone confirm this is true?

this is an intresting question as i dont know the answer i will be coming back often to see if anyone does

Each city has an "attraction rating" which I assume has something to do with this.

Glasgow, for example has a rating of 18 and Kettering of only 5.

or thinking about it, maybe the attraction rating has more to do with ability to attract players to that city, dunno

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by neil220779:

or thinking about it, maybe the attraction rating has more to do with ability to attract players to that city, dunno </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Thats what I'd imagine, but I didn't know that was included either! Maybe the WAGS won't like shopping in Sunderland on the next version!

As an experiment I changed the Capacity of HJK's Finnair stadium to 200,000 (all seater), and HJK's average attendence to 195,000. I also changed the Population of Helsinki from the range of 500,000-1,000,000 to 0-1000. HJK's average attendence in the 1st division for that season was 194,612. So I have no idea what a cities population affects

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by James.Clench:

As an experiment I changed the Capacity of HJK's Finnair stadium to 200,000 (all seater), and HJK's average attendence to 195,000. I also changed the Population of Helsinki from the range of 500,000-1,000,000 to 0-1000. HJK's average attendence in the 1st division for that season was 194,612. So I have no idea what a cities population affects </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hi James, thanks for your effort. The problem however lies in figuring out the right way to set up a proper simulation. Personally I don't use the editor, but for this occassion I've opened it up to nose around a bit. As was mentioned in a previous post, the "Attraction" attribute might play a part in whether people from surrounding areas are drawn to a stadium. Taking HJK's Attraction attribute into account, it is maxed out (20/20), and the club has a pretty good reputation too. On top of that, they play in the Finnish premier league. You also wrote you had edited the average attendance stat to somewhere near the stadium's capacity, which might mean that all these things combined almost filled out the stadium every match despite the population of 1000 citizens.

The biggest question however is if the Attraction and Inhabitants attributes are dynamic - do these change depending on the club's success?

I think to properly test this, you need a 3rd-party editor application, so you can open up a save game and watch if those stats have changed over the seasons, since this is not possible with the default editor.

You'd probably need to start out with a lower league club in a small town and achieve decent/good(/astronomal might do the trick too) successes for a couple of seasons to see whether this effects either the value of the population and/or the attraction attribute.

Another set of attributes which are worthy to see if they're dynamic are the (Minimum/Maximum) Attendance ones. James posted that he set the average attendance stat at 195k and it was pretty much 195k in the end. I'm not sure how well he performed in the league, but it might be that it's in fact that statistic that decides the attendance, despite the club's reputation, city size, etc.

So if this statistic is dynamic, it might be calculated based on the club's reputation, city's population and attractivity, though this is just speculation.

If anyone thinks (or knows, for the smartasses) he can add anything informative about this subject please don't hold back and post away!

It's a very interesting set of questions posed, and definitely ones I would like to see an answer to. I wouldn't say they're 'critical', not at all, but definitely interesting and could have an affect on the game as we play it.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by postal postie:

i think it is but if not it should be. also depends on how many top clubs are around you as well.

even if accrington stanly got to the premiership in 10 seasons and managed to integrate themselves in the premiership i doubt they'd be able to get that many fans still. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

You just need to consider Wimbledon as an example. Non-league to top flight London club - with no history or sizable fan base they couldn't build up a fanbase to sustain them.

Consider, conversely, Gretna. Town population about 2-3000 with a rural hinterland - but the chairman has aspiration to build a stadium that seats more than the whole population!

well fans couls travel a fair distance to follow their team they arnt always local people. i used to live 20 mins from cambridge united then moved 60 miles away and still went to the home games at the abbey so it doesnt always depends on the city the team is in fans come from everywhere im sure!!

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by nick...:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by postal postie:

i think it is but if not it should be. also depends on how many top clubs are around you as well.

even if accrington stanly got to the premiership in 10 seasons and managed to integrate themselves in the premiership i doubt they'd be able to get that many fans still. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

That's cool.

I always thought it should be like that.

So if Man U and Man C were in league two, then Bolton, Blackburn & Wigan (if in prem) would get huge attendaces as they'd be drawing support from the big city. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

i dont think it should work quite like that.

the manchester fans will still be manchester fans.

but the new football fans from that area will more often than not gravitate towards the teams higher up in the league structure.

for example if a new merseyside team was created and found themselves in the prem after awhile i doubt they would ever get a particularly large fan base what with everton and liverpool taking most of them. even when you have tranmere as well.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by JR866Gunner:

well fans couls travel a fair distance to follow their team they arnt always local people. i used to live 20 mins from cambridge united then moved 60 miles away and still went to the home games at the abbey so it doesnt always depends on the city the team is in fans come from everywhere im sure!! </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

but you started as a fan when living within the catchment area.

if you were born and brought up in manchester would you still support cambridge? maybe but not likely.

yes you get the glory hunters that have never set foot in manchester who support man utd but these come through from sustained achievements. to gain sustained achievements i believe you need a sizable fan base from your home town to start with since the money that would bring would be huge.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by postal postie:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by nick...:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by postal postie:

i think it is but if not it should be. also depends on how many top clubs are around you as well.

even if accrington stanly got to the premiership in 10 seasons and managed to integrate themselves in the premiership i doubt they'd be able to get that many fans still. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

That's cool.

I always thought it should be like that.

So if Man U and Man C were in league two, then Bolton, Blackburn & Wigan (if in prem) would get huge attendaces as they'd be drawing support from the big city. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

i dont think it should work quite like that.

the manchester fans will still be manchester fans.

but the new football fans from that area will more often than not gravitate towards the teams higher up in the league structure.

for example if a new merseyside team was created and found themselves in the prem after awhile i doubt they would ever get a particularly large fan base what with everton and liverpool taking most of them. even when you have tranmere as well. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I should have mentioned there would be a time lag on the effects of this, so the fans of Man U & C will still be their fans, but the youngsters just choosing their team woul be more likley to choose the 'local' club they see every week on match of the day, rather than (nececarily) th giants who to all intents and purposes have dissapeared off the footballng landscape (otherwise everyone in Nottingham would support Forest, instead of premeir league teams)

As you and phnompenhandy say, if there are still other, more established teams in the area doing as well, then this effect would be muted, and significantly muted if more than one.

Forest Green Rovers have bigger crowds than the population of the village of Forest Green. The difference there though is they also pull supporters from surrounding villages and small towns too.

Since noone seems to have actual knowledge of whether match attendance is influenced by city population, I'm guessing we won't find out how this works. What I'm still wondering though is if population is a dynamic variable: does the population of the city your club plays in grow over (a large period of) time?

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by SKYRiM:

Since noone seems to have actual knowledge of whether match attendance is influenced by city population, I'm guessing we won't find out how this works. What I'm still wondering though is if population is a dynamic variable: does the population of the city your club plays in grow over (a large period of) time? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I can't give a definitive answer I'm afraid, but my hunch would be no. Population modelling is a very difficult science (I should know, it's part of what I do), so to introduce that to the game would be an entirely new and IMO unnecessary level of complexity. There are more people living in this country now than there were say 50 years ago, yet attendances haven't increased proportionately. What would make more sense would be for the cachement area of clubs to increase as they gain success. For example if Man Utd go through a lean patch for 20 years, and Man City win everything in sight, the number of Utd fans (and therefore attendees) would go down, and the number of City fans would increase.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content"> What would make more sense would be for the cachement area of clubs to increase as they gain success. For example if Man Utd go through a lean patch for 20 years, and Man City win everything in sight, the number of Utd fans (and therefore attendees) would go down, and the number of City fans would increase. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

A successful club will attract the support of the kids, say Leeds in the 70's, Liverpool in the 80's, ManU in the 90's, Chelski since the Abravovic takeover, so your idea makes total sense, especially over a period of time.

But, to stay with your example, Man United had a lean patch, the kids might just as easily support Barcelona nowadays, or Real Madrid and any of the other top clubs.

Maybe people from Manchester, Glasgow, Liverpool, etc can comment how likely it is for support to "cross the city" - like, does it happen that dad will support Everton and junior will support Liverpool?

The same question to people from Madrid, Milano, etc. Do you (do your children) cross the line?

Attraction is to do with how attractive the town is to incoming/outgoing players. Its not a huge difference maker, but it can have an effect. For example, youth players not wanting to leave London or Manchester to go play in Portsmouth - I had a couple of players wouldnt join me from big city teams with Merthyr Tydfil.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by sten_super:

What would make more sense would be for the cachement area of clubs to increase as they gain success. For example if Man Utd go through a lean patch for 20 years, and Man City win everything in sight, the number of Utd fans (and therefore attendees) would go down, and the number of City fans would increase. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

This wouldn't be true to life as we saw Utd relegated in the 70's and they maxed out the stadium every week, even in the 80's when they were really poor they had bigger attendances than higher performing teams.

Same with City, only a few years ago they were in League 1 and were getting a full house week in week out.

For clubs like this attendance just wouldn't drop because they have a huge amount of loyal fans.

Even if we took it to an extreme and said Liverpool were awful under Roy Evans and had a full house every week but Chelsea didn't see the kind of support they do now. In game then it should be that even if Liverpool were Championship fodder they were getting the following but teams like Chelsea would see a dramatic decrease.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Nomis07:

This wouldn't be true to life as we saw Utd relegated in the 70's and they maxed out the stadium every week, even in the 80's when they were really poor they had bigger attendances than higher performing teams.

Same with City, only a few years ago they were in League 1 and were getting a full house week in week out.

For clubs like this attendance just wouldn't drop because they have a huge amount of loyal fans.

Even if we took it to an extreme and said Liverpool were awful under Roy Evans and had a full house every week but Chelsea didn't see the kind of support they do now. In game then it should be that even if Liverpool were Championship fodder they were getting the following but teams like Chelsea would see a dramatic decrease. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

This was why I talked about a 20 year period. Man Utd had 1 season in Division 2 (as it was then). Man City had about 7 years out of the top flight. If they had been there for 20 years or longer then their attendances would have started to drop.

Incidentally Man Utd didn't fill Old Trafford in the 2nd division, that is something of a myth. They did have far and away the highest attendance in the division though, and a higher attendance than a lot of teams in the division above. This was only 5/6 years after they won the European Cup though, so they were bound to have a lot of fans.

Sorry but I disagree totally. 20 years or not, some clubs just have a loyal following and that makes a difference.

5/6 is a long time in football, Southampton can't fill St Mary's and they are in the Championship whereas City fans suffered it for the same amount of time and showed true loyalty.

Man Utd went over 20 yrs without a league title and sparse cup successes yet were always there or there abouts attendances wise. Compare that to a team like Chelsea, Boro etc etc.

The suggestion that a Utd or Liverpool would lose support even over a 20 year period is just wrong, sorry. They have had the support from the outset and that support is passed down from parent to child.

Whilst it would be acceptable for parents of "Brit Pop" teams to have their children support the Real's and Milan's because of prestige it would be unheard of in certain quarters int he UK.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Nomis07:

Sorry but I disagree totally. 20 years or not, some clubs just have a loyal following and that makes a difference.

5/6 is a long time in football, Southampton can't fill St Mary's and they are in the Championship whereas City fans suffered it for the same amount of time and showed true loyalty.

Man Utd went over 20 yrs without a league title and sparse cup successes yet were always there or there abouts attendances wise. Compare that to a team like Chelsea, Boro etc etc.

The suggestion that a Utd or Liverpool would lose support even over a 20 year period is just wrong, sorry. They have had the support from the outset and that support is passed down from parent to child.

Whilst it would be acceptable for parents of "Brit Pop" teams to have their children support the Real's and Milan's because of prestige it would be unheard of in certain quarters int he UK. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Where do supporters of teams like Chelsea come from then? Pre-Abramovich they had a hard-core of fans and not much else, now you see Chelsea shirts all over the place. Are you suggesting that these are all new converts to football, that neither them nor their parents ever supported a different football team? If Man Utd were in the 2nd divison for 20 years, even if daddy was a hardcore Man Utd fan, he can't force little Jonny to become one. Clubs at all levels lose fans to other clubs; I'm a Brighton fan, and we seem to lose an almost constant stream of fans to Premiership clubs in London and elsewhere. You make think that Brighton are a small club, that they don't have many fans, but in the early 80s we were in Division 1, and had a significantly larger attendance than we do now. Forest had much higher attendances when they were winning and challenging for honours under Clough.

To suggest that all of the large footbal clubs in the land would continue to get large attendances no matter what division they were in and no matter how long they were there is pretty naive, in my opinion.

Sorry, wish I could edit posts. Just found this website, which pretty much makes the point

http://www.european-football-statistics.co.uk/englandcontent.htm

Note how teams like Blackburn have seen crowds diminish (albeit not massively) since they won the title.

I accept that there are a hardcore of fans that will follow the club no matter what; I just don't think there are quite as many of them as you think there are.

No you're right they can't force their children but there is a differing ethos from certain teams and a different history.

In 1995 waht was the incentive to support Liverpool for instance?

The Chelsea point seems to back up my argument about areas and fans behaviour, you seem to have misunderstood my point.

I started supporting Utd in the early 80's because my dad told me to. They were bloody awful but I loved every minute of it.

I'm not arguing against your point re certain clubs. What i'm srguing is that certain clubs and certain fans a different ethos and respectability than others, which would always have an impact no matter what.

Me being naive is your opinion of course but suffice to say your as wrong as you were when you started.

One obvious point - Manchester United fill Old Trafford every week and have tens of thousands of fans to spare so even if they lose tens of thousands of fans over a period of no success they would still have enough to fill or nearly fill their stadium.

Other clubs who pretty much fill their stadia currently in the Premiership probably do so with relatively few fans to spare so when they start losing fans they come straight off the attendances.

As for the point of whether city size changes during game I'd assume not. As stated elsewhere population modelling is complex and non of the factors that contribute to it are simulated in the game anyway. A successful football team would have very little, if any, impact on population growth in a city. A small number of obsessives might move simply to be closer to a successful team, most support their local team, support their "glory hunter" team from their settee or travel large distances to watch them.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Nomis07:

No you're right they can't force their children but there is a differing ethos from certain teams and a different history.

In 1995 waht was the incentive to support Liverpool for instance?

The Chelsea point seems to back up my argument about areas and fans behaviour, you seem to have misunderstood my point.

I started supporting Utd in the early 80's because my dad told me to. They were bloody awful but I loved every minute of it.

I'm not arguing against your point re certain clubs. What i'm srguing is that certain clubs and certain fans a different ethos and respectability than others, which would always have an impact no matter what.

Me being naive is your opinion of course but suffice to say your as wrong as you were when you started. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Sorry, didn't mean to be offensive. Apologies.

I think we'll probably just have to agree to disagree. My initial point was that attendances at big clubs would drop off over long periods of times, and I stand by it. It's something that gets me hot under the collar as it costs my club dear, all these fans staying away (or even worse converting to Chelsea fans) because they can't be bothered with League 1 football!

I guess I can relate my FM07 experience relevant to this ...

BTW, the game does have a field for "Hard Core Fan Percentage." I'm pretty sure it's the percentage of max attendance that will show up, no matter what.

Anyway, each year, I create a fictional side to play. I use real towns that don't have a senior side, and I research these towns diligently. I even go as far as to go onto Google Earth and pick a place where a top-tier stadium could be built and name it after a nearby local landmark, or the road it's on.

For FM07, I used Tonnerre, France. It's a smallish town a bit south of Troyes, population about 4000. I figured L'Orage (the team's nickname) would eventually pull fans from Troyes, if that r/l side remained in Ligue 2 while Tonnerre rose to European greatness.

Sure enough, as the black-and-yellow grew, so did their attendance. By 2020, when we were consistant treble winners and champs of Europe, we had crowds in excess of 50,000 for every home match. But early on, we had trouble getting our 5000-seated, 7537 capacity Stade Rougemont filled.

I'm convinced that attendance is a formula with such variables as reputation, capacity of stadium, average attendance, maximum and minimum attendance, hard-core fan percentage, importance of the match, reputation of the opponent (and their key players, to a smaller degree), and probably one or two other things I can't think of at the moment.

I know for a fact that attractiveness is static.

I honestly believe population has little to do with it. If population is anything other than cosmetic, it has a weighted influence on attractiveness when used to decide a player's desire to sign for a club.

The maximum attendance field is a fairly critical one, and does indeed change over time. For stadium expansion, for instance, if your maximum attendance doesn't exceed your stadium's current capacity, the board won't expand. And it will only expand by a percentage of the difference, probably a weighted random number between .9 and 1.5 or so ( (max - cap) * rand ) ...

I don't think population has nothing to do with it.

dola ... grrr ..... I wanna edit my posts ....

* I don't think population has anything to do with it. *