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Thread: Detailed experiment of youth development - Troubling results

  1. #1
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    Objective:

    I want to provide an detailed analysis of the player development model in FM08. Since SI modified the training system for FM08, this study will hopefully determine whether a long-term game is sustainable. This will also investigate as to why many talented youth are not picked by the national team.


    Motivation:

    I like to play out a career in FM over a span of 20+ seasons. In order to enjoy such a long-term game, it is crucial that the youth development and the regen system maintain a consistent level of players. There have been multiple threads complaining that the training system is broken. There are also sporadic threads complaining that regens have unrealistically low physical stats.

    Furthermore, I've also noticed in my game that national teams are not picking talented youth, but rather sticking with the veterans well past their peak. This might have to do something with the development model.


    Simulation:

    I started off a holiday game with the 8.0.1 patch. I am using a large database and have the following leagues playable:

    Argentina - Primera División
    Australia - A-League
    Brazil - Campeonato Brasileiro
    China - Super League
    England - Premiership and Championship
    France - Ligue 1
    Germany - Bundesliga
    Holland - Premier Division
    Italy - Serie A and Serie B
    Mexico - Primera División
    Portugal - Bwin Liga
    Russia - Premier League
    Scotland - Premier League
    South Africa - Castle Premiership
    South Korea - K-League
    Spain - La Liga and Seconda A
    USA - MLS

    This covers basically 5 continents with 17 countries and 20 leagues. I am saving every 2 years in August. The numbers used for analysis are obtained using Genie Scout.

  2. #2
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    Objective:

    I want to provide an detailed analysis of the player development model in FM08. Since SI modified the training system for FM08, this study will hopefully determine whether a long-term game is sustainable. This will also investigate as to why many talented youth are not picked by the national team.


    Motivation:

    I like to play out a career in FM over a span of 20+ seasons. In order to enjoy such a long-term game, it is crucial that the youth development and the regen system maintain a consistent level of players. There have been multiple threads complaining that the training system is broken. There are also sporadic threads complaining that regens have unrealistically low physical stats.

    Furthermore, I've also noticed in my game that national teams are not picking talented youth, but rather sticking with the veterans well past their peak. This might have to do something with the development model.


    Simulation:

    I started off a holiday game with the 8.0.1 patch. I am using a large database and have the following leagues playable:

    Argentina - Primera División
    Australia - A-League
    Brazil - Campeonato Brasileiro
    China - Super League
    England - Premiership and Championship
    France - Ligue 1
    Germany - Bundesliga
    Holland - Premier Division
    Italy - Serie A and Serie B
    Mexico - Primera División
    Portugal - Bwin Liga
    Russia - Premier League
    Scotland - Premier League
    South Africa - Castle Premiership
    South Korea - K-League
    Spain - La Liga and Seconda A
    USA - MLS

    This covers basically 5 continents with 17 countries and 20 leagues. I am saving every 2 years in August. The numbers used for analysis are obtained using Genie Scout.

  3. #3
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    Savegame 1: July 7, 2007

    Total number of players: 52331

    Players under 21:

    190 - 200 PA: 2
    180 - 189 PA: 21
    170 - 179 PA: 111
    160 - 169 PA: 160

    190 - 200 CA: 0
    180 - 189 CA: 2
    170 - 179 CA: 0
    160 - 169 CA: 2
    150 - 159 CA: 12
    140 - 149 CA: 34
    130 - 139 CA: 71
    120 - 129 CA: 183

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666

    All-around athletes* : 113

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

    strength >=10

    Players between 21 and 24:

    190 - 200 PA: 6
    180 - 189 PA: 39
    170 - 179 PA: 92
    160 - 169 PA: 227

    190 - 200 CA: 0
    180 - 189 CA: 2
    170 - 179 CA: 15
    160 - 169 CA: 24
    150 - 159 CA: 60
    140 - 149 CA: 173
    130 - 139 CA: 353
    120 - 129 CA: 746

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016

    All-around athletes* : 366

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

    strength >=10

    All players

    190 - 200 CA: 1
    180 - 189 CA: 18
    170 - 179 CA: 68

    International Caps

    Players under 25 with international caps: 1273
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2
    Oldest player >= 165 CA with no caps: Sebastien Frey[27] - 173 CA

    England
    Players under 25 with international caps: 13
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

    Spain
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1 Jesus Navas[21] - 166 CA

    Italy
    Players under 25 with international caps: 5
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

    France
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

    Germany
    Players under 25 with international caps: 16
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

    Holland
    Players under 25 with international caps: 20
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

    Brazil
    Players under 25 with international caps: 21
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

    Argentina
    Players under 25 with international caps: 18
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

    Analysis

    This sets the baseline at the beginning of the game. With the exception of Messi and Fabregas, talented players under 21 reach around 150 CA. There's also a good amount of players under 25 that have international caps. In fact, only 2 players under 25 >= 165 CA has not been capped yet. The only player >= 170 CA without a cap is Frey.

  4. #4
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    Savegame 2: August 4, 2009

    Total number of players: 53322

    Players under 21:

    190 - 200 PA: 6
    180 - 189 PA: 22
    170 - 179 PA: 94
    160 - 169 PA: 112

    190 - 200 CA: 0
    180 - 189 CA: 0
    170 - 179 CA: 0
    160 - 169 CA: 6
    150 - 159 CA: 13
    140 - 149 CA: 23
    130 - 139 CA: 70
    120 - 129 CA: 110

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1357

    All-around athletes* : 117

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

    strength >=10

    Players between 21 and 24:

    190 - 200 PA: 5
    180 - 189 PA: 29
    170 - 179 PA: 110
    160 - 169 PA: 189

    190 - 200 CA: 3
    180 - 189 CA: 3
    170 - 179 CA: 25
    160 - 169 CA: 65
    150 - 159 CA: 156
    140 - 149 CA: 280
    130 - 139 CA: 540
    120 - 129 CA: 821

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1300

    All-around athletes* : 331

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

    All players

    190 - 200 CA: 5
    180 - 189 CA: 23
    170 - 179 CA: 95

    International Caps

    Players under 25 with international caps: 1280
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 13
    Oldest player >= 165 CA with no caps: Amauri[29] - 175 CA

    England
    Players under 25 with international caps: 7
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1
    Leighton Baines[24] - 166 CA

    Spain
    Players under 25 with international caps: 5
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 7
    Jesus Navas[23] - 172 CA

    Italy
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1
    Lucas[22] - 174 CA

    France
    Players under 25 with international caps: 7
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2
    Jeremy Menez[22] - 168 CA

    Germany
    Players under 25 with international caps: 8
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

    Holland
    Players under 25 with international caps: 10
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0

    Brazil
    Players under 25 with international caps: 13
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1
    Lucas[22] - 174 CA

    Argentina
    Players under 25 with international caps: 13
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 1
    Gonzalo Higuain[21] - 168 CA

    Analysis

    Even just after two years, we're seeing signs that the youth development is not up to standard. While the regens have higher PA, the total number of under-21s that have >= 120 CA dropped by 79.

    For players 21 to 24, the average CA is going up. There's also an drop in the number of players with good physical attributes in both age groups. In the 21 to 24 group, there's a drop off of 716 players with good pace and acceleration.

    As for international caps, we can seeing less players under 25 getting caps. We are also seeing players who have good CA, but are not being called up. Victor Valdes, Amauri, Jesus Navas and Lucas are all examples >= 170 CA and no caps.

  5. #5
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    i've bookmarked this, you have a reader, keep it up ;-)

  6. #6
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    I wouldn't mind if average player levels would go down a bit. I love this game, but something that bothers me after few seasons is, that it seems like that even worst teams in premiership are filled with players with who got great attributes.

    If you compare premiership players since the moment you start, and then let's say 3 years it seems premier league standard goes up way too much...suddenly mid-table team having as good team as top table team at start. This due development and transfers. I feel the cap between best EPL team and worst EPL team narrows down too much and there could be more difference between their key player statistics.

    That is why I'm glad standard of average players go down, because I don't want to face team every game where their player is 18+ on every attribute ( overstatement, but you know what I mean )

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    You see, I want great individuals stand out, but they dont if nearly every player on pitch is up his standard. I want more variety, and more weaknesses even on world's best players emphatzing their strenghts and weaknesses alike.

  8. #8
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    I'm going to try a new format by putting past results side by side. So in this post, you'll see 3 numbers. The first is savegame 1, second is savegame 2 and the rightmost is the current savegame 3.

    Hopefully, this will allow easier comparison.

    Savegame 3: August 1, 2011

    Total number of players: 52331, 53322, 53260

    Players under 21:

    190 - 200 PA: 2, 6, 7
    180 - 189 PA: 21, 22, 39
    170 - 179 PA: 111, 94, 99
    160 - 169 PA: 160, 112, 92

    190 - 200 CA: 0, 0, 0
    180 - 189 CA: 2, 0, 0
    170 - 179 CA: 0, 0, 1
    160 - 169 CA: 2, 6, 0
    150 - 159 CA: 12, 13, 4
    140 - 149 CA: 34, 23, 7
    130 - 139 CA: 71, 70, 24
    120 - 129 CA: 183, 110, 59

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666, 1357, 1033

    All-around athletes* : 113, 117, 38

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina &

    strength >=10

    Players between 21 and 24:

    190 - 200 PA: 6, 5, 3
    180 - 189 PA: 39, 29, 21
    170 - 179 PA: 92, 110, 99
    160 - 169 PA: 227, 189, 139

    190 - 200 CA: 0, 3, 2
    180 - 189 CA: 2, 3, 3
    170 - 179 CA: 15, 25, 24
    160 - 169 CA: 24, 65, 57
    150 - 159 CA: 60, 156, 133
    140 - 149 CA: 173, 280, 290
    130 - 139 CA: 353, 540, 475
    120 - 129 CA: 746, 821, 818

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016, 1300, 811

    All-around athletes* : 366, 331, 211

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

    All players

    190 - 200 CA: 1, 5, 4
    180 - 189 CA: 18, 23, 28
    170 - 179 CA: 68, 95, 105

    International Caps

    Players under 25 with international caps: 1273, 1280, 1168
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2, 13, 21
    Oldest player >= 170 CA with no caps: Amauri[31] - 175 CA

    England
    Players under 25 with international caps: 13, 7, 4
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 5
    Fabrice Muamba[23] - 166 CA

    Spain
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9, 5, 4
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 7, 5
    Bojan[20] - 177 CA

    Italy
    Players under 25 with international caps: 5, 9, 10
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 1
    Lucas[24] - 177 CA

    France
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9, 7, 6
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 2, 6
    Jeremy Menez[24] - 176 CA

    Germany
    Players under 25 with international caps: 16, 8, 1
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 0, 2
    Kevin-Prince Boateng[24] - 169 CA

    Holland
    Players under 25 with international caps: 20, 10, 7
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 0, 1
    Ismael Aissati[22] - 167 CA

    Brazil
    Players under 25 with international caps: 21, 13, 9
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 4
    Alexander Pato[21] - 181 CA

    Argentina
    Players under 25 with international caps: 18, 13, 8
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0, 1, 1
    Gonzalo Higuain[23] - 174 CA

    Analysis

    With the new format, we can see the degrade in youth development much more clearly. Youth are been regenerated with good PA, but the CA is just too low. There's only 95 under-21 with >= 120 CA.

    Compare that to 302 in the first savegame. Physical attributes are also decreasing at an alarming rate. Perhaps development is lagging behind in the physical department.

    International caps for talented youth are also dropping except for Italy. As a result, we are
    seeing players who have high CA but no caps. Amauri still has not been capped despite having over 175 CA for two years now. Meanwhile, Pato at 181 CA has not been capped. But he's still young and hopefully will be on the national team soon.

  9. #9
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    The results for the first 4 years are interesting. Youth definitely do not develop as fast as FM07. We should keep an eye on the CA for "all players". While as FM07 players stop developing at 24, I have a feeling that FM08 players continue to develop even at older ages.

    I'll continue this tomorrow. It takes a couple of hours to process a season. If there's anything else you guys want me to track, feel free to ask.

  10. #10
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    this is i think a good thing, ask ferguson.. youth development should be done carefully, or it just won't work out right.

  11. #11
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    SI just mess the youth development up...
    it don't have any problem in previous version

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    I'm glad the youth develop more slowly, it's more realistic. But if these trends continue so dramatically there might be problems in long term games.

    There is one problem though. My 20/20 scouts continue to tell me that players under 21 have reached their full potential. This is possiby the result of just asking for a report, but when he assesses a 17 year old surely he should predict a large degree of improvement, even if he is indeed playing near his potential in reality.

    Nice experiment Sin8 I look forward to some more results

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    I can give two conclusions so far.

    Either youth development in FM 2008 is spot on but the researchers are so BIASED that they inflate all their research targets especially the stars to far beyond their real / realistic ability ( This seems true whenever i look at Zlatan Ibrahimovic ) making the gap between the 'real' and 'what you get' more obvious as seen by this experiment.

    OR researchers are saints and managed a perfect snapshot of the players they governed, in which case we have a serious game issue with youth development as seen by this experiment.

  14. #14
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    My findings show that regen CA is generated too low. They peak too late and it is very hard to get them to improve by more than 15 CA/year in the 15-20 age group. I can forsee a situation of no wonderkids once we have a regen-only age group of < 21.

    Forget your Messi's, Fabregas', Aguero's etc.

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    There has been a problem with youth development in FM ever since they got rid of the 'regen' idea. Problems from the past include

    - Newgens having poor teamwork attributes
    - Newgens with poor physical attributes, much like the problem investigated here
    - Poor attribute alignment, with defenders having 20 for finishing and flair, but 8 for marking and positioning.
    - The only PPMs a newgen ever had were "shoots from distance" even if their long shots attribute was only 5. This may not be fixed yet
    - A lack of potentially world class players.

    Some of these issues may have been fixed, such as the teamwork bug, but I think the others still exist in the development engine. Interestingly, the last point seems to have been fixed in a way, but in fixing it other problems have become apparent i.e. players not reaching their potential, not enough players in the mid range etc. etc.

    The whole issue of development really needs to be sorted. These experiments have cropped up for every version of FM, each revealing shortcomings in the development engine - and yet nothings been done. Hopefully SI can sort it once and for all, and hopefully for the next patch!

  16. #16

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    A very interesting topic, SiN8. I am looking forward to you continuing it, and after that I will be looking in a way to resume your results, and posting them on another forum. If that is ok with you, of course

  17. #17
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    quote:
    - The only PPMs a newgen ever had were "shoots from distance" even if their long shots attribute was only 5.



    there are plenty of players that shoot from distance even if all their long shots end up high and wide. Just because someone isn't very good at something doesn't mean they don't do it.

  18. #18
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    quote:
    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666, 1357, 1033


    considering the match engine is heavily biased towards pace/accel, I'm not surprised with this decline.

  19. #19
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    Good experiement.

    I've not really got too far in the future yet on this FM, but on FM2007 I felt young players developed too quickly, and it was too easy to get a player to reach their PA. It needed slowing down, but this experiment so far appears to be showing that its been slowed down too much.

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    quote:
    Originally posted by GoGa70:
    quote:
    - The only PPMs a newgen ever had were "shoots from distance" even if their long shots attribute was only 5.



    there are plenty of players that shoot from distance even if all their long shots end up high and wide. Just because someone isn't very good at something doesn't mean they don't do it.


    That's not the point though is it? The fact that the only PPM newgens ever had was 'Shoots from distance' is the flaw.

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    I am currently in 2017. While I ahve noticed a good number of quality young players (not nearly as bad as some of the early alarmists suggest), there are two issues I've noticed.

    One agrees very strongly with what you've been saying: There are very few great athletes amongst the great players. There are way too many players with fantastic mental and technical skills but pace and jumping scores hovering around 10. The other is the PPM issue. Since it is so hard to transfer PPMs through tutoring, more players need to be generated with more PPMs, and that is just not happening. This was an issue with FM 07 as well.

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    Let me add one of the most troubling trends is top-flight DCs with poor jumping and pace attributes.

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    Again, the rightmost number is for savegame 4. I've also added a new section that tracks players who never achieve their potential. Pretty interesting finding.

    Savegame 4: August 1, 2013

    Total number of players: 52331...53322...53260...55119

    Players under 21:

    190 - 200 PA: 2.....6.....7.....10
    180 - 189 PA: 21....22....39....41
    170 - 179 PA: 111...94....99....110
    160 - 169 PA: 160...112...92....94

    190 - 200 CA: 0.....0.....0.....0
    180 - 189 CA: 2.....0.....0.....0
    170 - 179 CA: 0.....0.....1.....0
    160 - 169 CA: 2.....6.....0.....0
    150 - 159 CA: 12....13....4.....0
    140 - 149 CA: 34....23....7.....2
    130 - 139 CA: 71....70....24....18
    120 - 129 CA: 183...110...59....77

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666.....1357.....1033.....947

    All-around athletes* : 113.....117.....38.....34

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

    Players between 21 and 24:

    190 - 200 PA: 6.....5.....3.....5
    180 - 189 PA: 39....29....21....19
    170 - 179 PA: 92....110...99....79
    160 - 169 PA: 227...189...139...93

    190 - 200 CA: 0.....3.....2.....0
    180 - 189 CA: 2.....3.....3.....1
    170 - 179 CA: 15....25....24....9
    160 - 169 CA: 24....65....57....17
    150 - 159 CA: 60....156...133...95
    140 - 149 CA: 173...280...290...182
    130 - 139 CA: 353...540...475...356
    120 - 129 CA: 746...821...818...539

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016.....1300.....811.....564

    All-around athletes* : 366.....331.....211.....139

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

    All players

    190 - 200 CA: 1.....5.....4.....6
    180 - 189 CA: 18....23....28....16
    170 - 179 CA: 68....95....105...97

    Wasted Potential
    [I]This section will track those players who never reach their potential. We're seeing regens with good PA, but they never seem to develop. This hopefully will shed some light.

    Players who underachieved* >= 50: 302.....222.....104.....104

    *Defined as players between 27 and 30 whose PA >= 150, but their PA - CA >= 20. These players are in their peak years, but have not come close to reaching their potential.


    International Caps

    Players under 25 with international caps: 1273..1280..1168..905
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2.....13....21....11
    Oldest player >= 170 CA with no caps: Gianluca Pegolo[32] - 170 CA

    England
    Players under 25 with international caps: 13....7.....4.....3
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....5.....1
    Scott Sinclair[23] - 174 CA

    Spain
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....5.....4.....2
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....7.....5.....3
    Bojan[22] - 179 CA

    Italy
    Players under 25 with international caps: 5.....9.....10....1
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....2
    Alexandre Pato[23] - 184 CA

    France
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....7.....6.....3
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....2.....6.....1
    Obertan Gabriel[24] - 167 CA

    Germany
    Players under 25 with international caps: 16....8.....1.....0
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....2.....1
    Toni Kroos[23] - 172 CA

    Holland
    Players under 25 with international caps: 20....10....7.....2
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....1.....1
    Ismael Aissati[24] - 170 CA

    Brazil
    Players under 25 with international caps: 21....13....9.....4
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....4.....3
    Alexander Pato[23] - 184 CA

    Argentina
    Players under 25 with international caps: 18....13....8.....3
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....0

    Analysis

    Since we are six years into the game, almost all under-21s are now regens. If we compare the

    current results to savegame 1, we see that regens have PA, but drastically low CA. There's only 20 players over 130 CA.

    The same thing is seen for players 21 to 24. Their average CA is now much lower than the first savegame. There's another strange occurance for this group. Notice how the number of high PAs have decreased. This is odd considering that the high number of high PA youth in the first savegame.

    Does this mean that the first batch of youth are retiring before reaching 24?

    The slow development of youth have taken its toll on international caps. There are only a handful of under-25 players in national powerhouse teams.

    As for the new wasted potential test, we are a decrease in underachievers. The results really surprised me as I thought players were not developing. But this would indicate otherwise. In fact, the high CA for all players stayed consistent. We'll have to keep our eye on this.

  24. #24
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    quote:
    Players who underachieved* >= 50: 302.....222.....104.....104


    Please disregard the ">=50"

  25. #25
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    Why does it seem more and more like SI's community members are playtesting the games for them?

    Lets face it, this new game feels like it wasn't playtested at all at times.

    interesting experiment though

  26. #26
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    quote:
    hat's not the point though is it? The fact that the only PPM newgens ever had was 'Shoots from distance' is the flaw.


    i was obviously referring to his second statement

  27. #27
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    Good post.

    I obviously haven't done any proper research like you have but anecdotally I am seeing very similar results on my game, which is now in 2015.

    There are basically only a handful of newgens in any of the national teams at the moment. I decided to give miniscout a go and check out the PA/CA and it is shocking. I actually managed to sign a striker with PA of 198 (without cheating i might add) but after years and years of me doing everything I can I have so far only managed to get his PA to 140. I found I have the same situation with some other team members I have signed.

    The AI isn't really doing much better either. I haven't seen a wonderkid since near the start of the game either.

    I'm glad to see there are players with good PA coming through on yours though because they seem to be lacking on mine. In terms of the England U21 squad the highest PA I can find on any of the players is about 150.

    Another point like you mention is players I have had for years with good CA are not being picked by the national squads either ? I find this baffling as they are not even being called up despite being better.

  28. #28
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    Actually the England national team have 2 newgens in the squad, both have a CA of 147.

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    To stand any chance with someone at 198PA they have to have:

    * 100-120 CA at 17
    * 15+ /year CA growth rate until 22.

    If not, he'll be miles off his PA and you're better off buying a guy with a lower PA but with better starting CA.

  30. #30
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    This is a clever experiment and it verifies what I suspected byt looking at new players. Their physical attributes are very bad. At first I was thinking that they will get better when they grow older. But then genie came out and I was surprised to see that the very good new players would be excellent with their technique but stay slow, weak and sissy. Thank god for the editors, or else in 10 years I'd have a team as athletic as the guys that watch them from home.

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    quote:
    Originally posted by Qceng:
    To stand any chance with someone at 198PA they have to have:

    * 100-120 CA at 17
    * 15+ /year CA growth rate until 22.

    If not, he'll be miles off his PA and you're better off buying a guy with a lower PA but with better starting CA.


    He is 21 now. 11 goals and 9 assists in 19 apps this season (his first full season in prem) so i'm not giving up yet !

    I only signed him because his description was the next Henry :P

    I've checked some of the other national teams from active leagues in my game and they pretty much all only have 2-4 newgens in the squad.

  32. #32
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    quote:
    Originally posted by Qceng:
    To stand any chance with someone at 198PA they have to have:

    * 100-120 CA at 17
    * 15+ /year CA growth rate until 22.

    If not, he'll be miles off his PA and you're better off buying a guy with a lower PA but with better starting CA.


    This is with an assumption that players stop developing at 22. While the experiment has only reached 6 years, we are seeing that the number of underachievers (see savegame4) has actually decreased. Perhaps players continue developing well into their high 20s.

  33. #33
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    Why didn't any SI staff say anything about it?

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    Cause they are too busy wading in cash filled swimming pools.

    Someone pass me the 'Luxurious Soap'

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    quote:
    Originally posted by Joshlee:
    Why didn't any SI staff say anything about it?


    They are too busy counting their money christmas presents.

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    fascinating...what is a pa & ca? ...and how can i check?

  37. #37
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    quote:
    Originally posted by Joshlee:
    Why didn't any SI staff say anything about it?


    lol look, he doesn't realize yet that they don't care...hehehehe!

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    quote:
    Originally posted by Fire Bracelet:
    quote:
    Originally posted by Joshlee:
    Why didn't any SI staff say anything about it?


    lol look, he doesn't realize yet that they don't care...hehehehe!

    Yes, I'm sure they purposely added this feature so that the game will be unplayable after a few years and will create unhappy customers.

  39. #39
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    quote:
    Originally posted by roofel:
    Why does it seem more and more like SI's community members are playtesting the games for them?

    Lets face it, this new game feels like it wasn't playtested at all at times.

    interesting experiment though


    You say that as if you know that testers don't perform similar procedures...

  40. #40
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    Sin8: Cool experiment. Would you be able to do the same exact thing with 07 and compare the results? That would indicate if there really is something different between 07 and 08 that is responsible, and how great the difference is.

    And if other people have scout genie and 08 they can run the same experiment and see if they get similar results.

  41. #41
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    Sin8: Also, is it possible that you need to have 'deeper' leagues in order to get proper youth development?

    I noticed that most of your leagues had the top tier only. Maybe this creates a problem if the 'top' teams will act similarly to the int'l teams, in that they'll stick primarily with experienced players and let youth players sit around on the bench. If this happens, solid youth players may not have an outlet to get regular first team experience, the way they might if you could sell on or loan out younger players to lower division teams. (For instance, in my 07 game, I send as many under-21 players as possible out to teams that will treat them as valuable first team additions. This nearly always sends them to a lower div. team.) An AI team with only limited options for loaning players out may keep younger players sitting around doing nothing, unless it treats youth development as an important goal, in and of itself. But that seems doubtful, given the results you've seen.

    Anyway, I'm wondering if the way you set up the experiment may account for why youth players aren't developing as well as you'd hope. So you might want to see what happens if you run the experiment with more lower tier divisions, even if this means you have to reduce the number of countries. See if you still get the same kind of results.

  42. #42
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    NEW SECTION - Tracking players - Savegame 1

    Since development is obviously modified/broken, I'm going to keep track of three players. Each
    player is in their own unique situtaion and might lead to the root cause of this problem.

    Lulinha is a 17 yr old Brazilian AMC with 104/187. His high PA indicates he could be in the first XI in any side. Currently playing for Corinthians in 2007, he is quite well known for a 17 year old with a reputation of 5064. Will Lulinha should be picked up by a European team soon and blossom in the top flight leagues?

    Dean Vaughn is an American center back who starts the game as a 16yr old with 66/189. With proper guidance, he should be a world-class player. However, since he is playing for BYU Cougars in USA, his reputation is very low at 50. Will he be discovered by top European teams and nurtured into a top player? Or will he waste away his career as well as his potential in the MLS?

    Thiago starts off as a 17 yr old MC at Barcelona with 90/173. His PA should see him be a good player, but not necessarily world class. Since Thiago has a high reputation already at 3750, top teams are keeping an eye on him. And Thiago is probably keeping an eye on them also with his ambition of 18. However, he probably will not be starting for the top sides. Will Thiago's development languish as he sits on the bench? Also, will the Spanish registration bug also hinder Thiago?

  43. #43
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    Tracking players - Savegame 2

    Lulinha - 19 yr - AMC - Suwon
    2007 - 104/187
    2009 - 133/187

    Lulinha had a torrid 2 years with Corinthians. Even though he played in 45 league games over the last 2 seasons, his ratings were below a 6. He was sold to K-League Suwon in Dec 2008 for a 800k pounds. Lulinha become a regular for Suwon immediately and saw his new Korean side take home the East Asian Champions League. His CA increased 29 points which isn't too bad.

    Dean Vaughn - 18 yr - DC - BYU Cougars
    2007 - 66/189
    2009 - 68/189

    Dean played a total of 45 league games for BYU Cougars and had relatively good ratings. However, it was a complete disaster in terms of development with only increase of 2 CA. This area needs to be looked at by SI.

    Thiago - 18 yr - MC - Zarazoga
    2007 - 90/173
    2009 - 124/173

    Thiago didn't get to play much his first season. He got one game in Barcelona B and 3 games with the senior team. He was sold to Zaragoza for 1.2m pounds at the beginning of the 08-09 season. For Zaragoza, Thiago again played sporadically with 2 reserve games. It is somewhat surprising that he didn't get more games in the reserve leagues. This could be caused by the Spanish registration bug. However, his development was quite good, gaining 34 in CA.

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    Tracking players - Savegame 3

    Lulinha - 21 yr - AMC - Braga
    2007 - 104/187
    2009 - 133/187
    2011 - 150/187

    Lulinha played ok for Suwon with 36 league games and 25 cup games. In July 2011, he was sent to Braga for 1.9m pounds. His two years of service in the K-League saw a gain of 17 CA. If Lulinha is to reach full potential by 24, he'll have to pick up the slate a bit.

    Dean Vaughn - 20 yr - DC - BYU Cougars
    2007 - 66/189
    2009 - 68/189
    2011 - 73/189

    What a waste of a talent! Dean played 52 games for BYU Cougars in the last two years. He was also picked by New York in the MLS draft and sent off to NOVA FC in the loan. Despite playing regularly for NOVA FC, Dean only increased his CA by 5. Seems like playing in USA does nothing for development.

    Thiago - 20 yr - MC - Zaragoza
    2007 - 90/173
    2009 - 124/173
    2011 - 151/173

    Thiago's third season included 7 games in Zaragoza's senior team which surprisingly won the Champions League. The fourth season had him playing 18 games in league and 6 in cup. He also earned his first international cap for Brazil at age 19 against Denmark. In terms of development, Thiago is really blossoming into a good player with an increase of 27 CA.

  45. #45
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    Tracking players - Savegame 4

    Lulinha - 23 yr - AMC - Braga
    2007 - 104/187
    2009 - 133/187
    2011 - 150/187
    2013 - 174/187

    Lulinha well for Braga with 13 league games at 6.85 rating. Just after one season, Napoli came knocking and picked him up for 5.5m pounds. At Napoli, Lulinha played 35 league games at 6.51 rating. His development went up 24 points. He might reach full potential after all. No caps yet.

    Dean Vaughn - 22 yr - DC - BYU Cougars
    2007 - 66/189
    2009 - 68/189
    2011 - 73/189
    2013 - 82/189

    Dean spent another year on loan at NOVA FC before getting shipped off to California. At California, he played 30 games. However, Dean should really find another profession as his CA is still only 82 after 6 years of simulation.

    Thiago - 20 yr - MC - Inter
    2007 - 90/173
    2009 - 124/173
    2011 - 151/173
    2013 - 165/173

    Thiago played regularly for Zaragoza in the last two years and did quite well. He was sold to Inter for 17m pounds. His CA is now at 165 and is within 8 of full potential. However, Inter might not guarantee a 165 CA player a regular spot. Will this hurt Thiago?

  46. #46
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    Oops...Thiago is 22 yrs old in savegame 4.

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    quote:
    Originally posted by bflaff:
    Sin8: Cool experiment. Would you be able to do the same exact thing with 07 and compare the results? That would indicate if there really is something different between 07 and 08 that is responsible, and how great the difference is.

    And if other people have scout genie and 08 they can run the same experiment and see if they get similar results.


    I've already deleted FM07 from my computer. However, I played 20+ seasons on it and never realized any big problems with regens.

  48. #48
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    SiN8, you're writing style is exceptional. Following this with interest

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    Could training facilities play a part in training?

  50. #50
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    SIN8, you have really done a good job here, mate, keep on it!
    and I'm sure SI will recognize it one day(probably after enjoying their christmas holiday)
    Beside that, I think SI should consider hiring SIN8 as one of their testing team, because the currently testing team they have can't even figure out this obvious BUG

  51. #51
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    This problem might be a knock-on effect from the lowering of scout/coach accuracy that occurred in 8.0.1. Simply, most low CA/high PA/low Rep players are not spotted by scouts from good teams and as such never get a chance to play at clubs with decent coaches and training facilities and thus never grow in CA.

    What needs to be found is a balance between this and the unrealistic situation in 07 where every player reached their PA by the age of 20.

  52. #52
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    Please KUTGW !!!
    Very interesting as i am doing the dafuge challenge, i am now in 2020.. almost all players on the english squad is regens..

  53. #53
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    I don't think that every player with potential has to be blossom into a good player. If he's lazy or even just unlucky he may never get anywhere near his full potential.

    This is some great work buddy! keep it up

  54. #54
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    A very interesting and articulate thread. If only there were more like this and less "WTF!? SI HAVE RUINED MY LIFE" type posts.

    Will follow this with interest. Good luck with it!

  55. #55
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    Please disregard...testing new formatting method

    123 \t 3435 \t 6234 \t 2623
    12 \t 2345 \t 1 \t 2

  56. #56
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    It's a shame that regens are a mayor troublepoint again. After years and years of different flaws, the regens in the last FM 2006 patch and in FM 2007 were very good. Not spot on, some minor flaws but all in all very playable.
    I did some tests as well for FM 2007. Topic still might be around here somewhere.

    It seems that now SI decided to redo the training system, everything has gone to waste and we're back where we were before FM 2006. I'm not pretending to be more wise that the SI-staff (far from) but a new training module should only be implented if it doesn't cause any problems in terms of player's developement.

  57. #57
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    Maybe, just maybe, what you are seeing with Dean Vaughn means that 20 year olds should not be playing all the time, because their progress then halts?

  58. #58
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    quote:
    Originally posted by Lyssien:
    Maybe, just maybe, what you are seeing with Dean Vaughn means that 20 year olds should not be playing all the time, because their progress then halts?


    That's what I'm thinking.

    In my current game some reserve players values are £45K-£55K and they only make a few sub appearances for the first team.

    First team players who make around 35-40 appearances per season are only worth £3k

    Don't want to check CA/PA for them as it could give me an unfair advantage.

    Maybe training is more beneficial than playing?

  59. #59
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    quote:
    Originally posted by LutonNil:
    quote:
    Originally posted by Lyssien:
    Maybe, just maybe, what you are seeing with Dean Vaughn means that 20 year olds should not be playing all the time, because their progress then halts?


    That's what I'm thinking.

    In my current game some reserve players values are £45K-£55K and they only make a few sub appearances for the first team.

    First team players who make around 35-40 appearances per season are only worth £3k

    Don't want to check CA/PA for them as it could give me an unfair advantage.

    Maybe training is more beneficial than playing?


    I don't think it is. Because I have become bored of the game I have taken to cheating by using mini scout to view CA/PA. The only way CA seems to rise is by playing them regular in the first team at a high level - even out on loan in a lower division you are lucky to see CA rise by more than about 5 in a season.

    I loaned some players out to League one who had CA of around 100-110 but with PA in the region of 180-190. The AI doesn't even play them most of the time - the ones left in my reserves have seen no increase in CA at all.

    The ones who I am playing often in my first team, but not enough to tire them out, are getting around 15 CA increase per season.

    It seems the AI are only willing to play players based on their CA alone and don't take into account the PA of the player and are not willing to give them a chance. Once they are forced into playing these players they do see a CA increase and eventually become decent.

  60. #60
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    Savegame 5: August 1, 2015

    Total number of players: 52331...53322...53260...55119...55755

    Players under 21:

    190 - 200 PA: 2.....6.....7.....10....7
    180 - 189 PA: 21....22....39....41....41
    170 - 179 PA: 111...94....99....110...123
    160 - 169 PA: 160...112...92....94....93

    190 - 200 CA: 0.....0.....0.....0.....0
    180 - 189 CA: 2.....0.....0.....0.....0
    170 - 179 CA: 0.....0.....1.....0.....0
    160 - 169 CA: 2.....6.....0.....0.....1
    150 - 159 CA: 12....13....4.....0.....1
    140 - 149 CA: 34....23....7.....2.....2
    130 - 139 CA: 71....70....24....18....22
    120 - 129 CA: 183...110...59....77....76

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666.....1357.....1033.....947.....944

    All-around athletes* : 113.....117.....38.....34.....36

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

    Players between 21 and 24:

    190 - 200 PA: 6.....5.....3.....5.....10
    180 - 189 PA: 39....29....21....19....31
    170 - 179 PA: 92....110...99....79....89
    160 - 169 PA: 227...189...139...93....80

    190 - 200 CA: 0.....3.....2.....0.....0
    180 - 189 CA: 2.....3.....3.....1.....0
    170 - 179 CA: 15....25....24....9.....4
    160 - 169 CA: 24....65....57....17....23
    150 - 159 CA: 60....156...133...95....51
    140 - 149 CA: 173...280...290...182...136
    130 - 139 CA: 353...540...475...356...234
    120 - 129 CA: 746...821...818...539...423

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016.....1300.....811.....564.....464

    All-around athletes* : 366.....331.....211.....139.....99

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

    All players

    190 - 200 CA: 1.....5.....4.....6.....6
    180 - 189 CA: 18....23....28....16....10
    170 - 179 CA: 68....95....105...97....84

    Wasted Potential
    Players who underachieved*: 302.....222.....104.....104.....120

    *Defined as players between 27 and 30 whose PA >= 150, but their PA - CA >= 20. These players are in their peak years, but have not come close to reaching their potential.


    International Caps

    Players under 25 with international caps: 1273..1280..1168..905...650
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2.....13....21....11....2
    Oldest player >= 170 CA with no caps: Deigo Cavalieri[32] - 173 CA
    Highest CA without caps: Alexandre Pato[25] - 188 CA

    England
    Players under 25 with international caps: 13....7.....4.....3.....2
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....5.....1.....0

    Spain
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....5.....4.....2.....6
    Undeserved Callup - Joni, a regen, with 124/131 has been called up 6 times!! He has a rating of 6.32 in 2013 season for At. Madrid.

    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....7.....5.....3.....0

    Italy
    Players under 25 with international caps: 5.....9.....10....1.....2
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....2.....1
    Biggest Snub - Mario Balotelli[24] - 169 CA

    France
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....7.....6.....3.....1
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....2.....6.....1.....0

    Germany
    Players under 25 with international caps: 16....8.....1.....0.....2
    Undeserved Callup - Viktor Kruse with 131/133 has been called up twice
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....2.....1.....0

    Holland
    Players under 25 with international caps: 20....10....7.....2.....0
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....1.....1.....0

    Brazil
    Players under 25 with international caps: 21....13....9.....4.....2
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....4.....3.....0

    Argentina
    Players under 25 with international caps: 18....13....8.....3.....1
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....0.....0

    Analysis

    The stats for under-21 are starting to stablize as all the real players have aged out. The regens do indeed have low CA. The PA for the 21-24 players do also match up with the under-21 PAs. It seems that researchers have a bias to assign higher PAs than what the regen system does. As you progress in the game, there are only 200 player between 21-24 with >= 160 PA. The researchers had this number at 350.

    The CA keeps on decreasing for 21-24 age group. A couple of more years down the line and we'll also see this number stabilize out. Again, either the researchers overinflated numbers or the development system isn't panning out.

    Quality players are still being snubbed by national teams. A couple of notables are Pato, Ben Arfa, Higuain, Kroos, Aissati, Lulinha, Menez, Banega, Cavani and Aaron. All of them have >= 170 CA with Pato at 188 CA. How does Brazil and Italy both snub Pato for so long? Also, due to the lack of development, we are hardly seeing anyone under 25 capable playing for a national side.

    We are also seeing a slight increase in underachieving players.

  61. #61
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    Is the "National teams do not pick the best players" a known problem? If that is so, this is another showstopping bug. Can we assume this is a problem as the above analysis has shown?

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    I've just done a test at the regen generation point (19th June in england) and the number of fantastic regens is low to non existant.

    I reloaded 20-25 times and only got very, very few players who fit my criteria of someone who will become outstanding at a relatively young age (22-23).

    Criteria: PA is always 180+.

    age: 15.0 - 70+ CA
    age: 16.0 - 85+ CA

    It's difficult to imagine that in 20-25 years maybe only 2-3 players exist that will reach 175+ CA at a reasonable age, I'm not even saying 20 like Messi or Fabregas, but more like 22-23 but this is the scenario that's playing out. Even the game itself starts with 3 in the first year (lulinha, Kroos and Banega) and then nothing.

    I think this needs a bit of calibration by SI.

  63. #63
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    Just to add:

    Banega: age 19.0 - 133 CA
    Kroos: age 17.7 - 120 CA

    Good luck getting regens that reach those figures at that age, particularly Kroos.

  64. #64
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    I'd like to emphasize even ignoring the CA/PA ratio, the lack of physical skills in regens is a huge problem. It's very difficult to find a regen who doesn't have lower league physical stats after about 10 years of game time.

  65. #65
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    Seriously, its hardly THAT big of a deal.. i found there are some good players in my long term game, and i can say its not ruining one bit of my game.

    Look at some of these players i have:
    Becker
    Field
    Ormaetxea
    Romero
    Clark
    Mendes[/QUOTE]
    Bradshaw
    Couno
    Veldhuizen

  66. #66
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    There you go, most of the players you have posted are mid twenties or above.

    I've noticed the U21 teams are not picking the high PA players either. They are only picking players based on their CA. This means that none of them actually go on to play for the full international teams, becuase most have a PA of about 120-140. The other players are taking so long to develop they don't get into the national teams until they are much older.

    My 198 PA regen was French and played for the U21's but because they were playing a 33 year old Anelka and 32(?)Cisse up front he didn't get picked, and has now gone to play for Cameroon instead.

  67. #67
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    well it was more a pointing out of the players in my game are just as good as the players in the start of the game

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    quote:
    My 198 PA regen was French and played for the U21's but because they were playing a 33 year old Anelka and 32(?)Cisse up front he didn't get picked, and has now gone to play for Cameroon instead.


    Old players should retire from int'l football more often in the game.

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    quote:
    Originally posted by kaNovi:
    well it was more a pointing out of the players in my game are just as good as the players in the start of the game


    From looking at their stats, I wouldn't rate any of those players as world-class. Their physical attributes are much too low.

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    Tracking players - Savegame 5

    Lulinha - 25 yr - AMC - Roma
    2007 - 104/187
    2009 - 133/187
    2011 - 150/187
    2013 - 174/187
    2015 - 176/187

    The next two season saw Lulinha play 39 league games for Napoli, but his rating was just 6.35. Subsequently, Napoli sold him to Roma for 9.75m pounds in July 2015. Lulinha's development pretty much stalled after gaining only 2 CA. Although an excellent player, he probably will never reach his full potential. Too bad since he still has not been called up by Brazil.

    Dean Vaughn - 24 yr - DC - Chivas USA
    2007 - 66/189
    2009 - 68/189
    2011 - 73/189
    2013 - 82/189
    2015 - 98/189

    Dean was signed for free by Real Salt Lake in the MLS. However, he played only 2 games before he was released. Luckily, Chivas USA signed Dean and quickly made him a starter. Dean so far played 25 games in the 2015 MLS season. The MLS experience actually allowed a 24 yr old Dean to develop faster than any other stage in his life. He might even break 100.

    Thiago - 24 yr - MC - Inter
    2007 - 90/173
    2009 - 124/173
    2011 - 151/173
    2013 - 165/173
    2015 - 168/173

    Thiago proved me wrong by quickly breaking into the first XI. Over the two years, he played 72 games for Inter and 12 times for Brazil. This is made more remarkable since Thiago has not cracked the 170 CA mark. But he's playing well and should continue to have a great career.

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    Hmm you might be right, i cant find a single player who is listed as World Class or Wonderkid

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    I'm glad to see that they are actually coming close to their PA though. The main thing I love about FM is developing new players in the long term. It seems a bit slow but at least they get there in the end.

    It's certainly not a show stopper but it does look like it needs tweaking by Si.

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    quote:
    Originally posted by SiN8:
    quote:
    Originally posted by kaNovi:
    well it was more a pointing out of the players in my game are just as good as the players in the start of the game


    From looking at their stats, I wouldn't rate any of those players as world-class. Their physical attributes are much too low.


    Exactly, not a single player with a 15 in pace and jumping.

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    You have to look at players hidden stats; ambitions and professionalism . Your 80 ca 190 pa 17 year old youngster will never get anywere near hes PA if he does not have any ambitions. High professionelism = he likes to train hard ..which means fast progress over the years.
    Also the clubs training facilites has a big impact too.
    Tutoring youngsters with an old professional player is actually very usefull.

    I did a quick test with milan, where I told Nesta to work with some 17 year old central defender(70 ca 155 PA) . He was had 11 professionalism, 12 ambition when I started the game - and now in the beginning of 3rd season he got 17 professionalism and 16 ambition... CA is 115.

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    Excellent experiment.

    I have sort of changed my mind about this thread - I agreed 100% at the start but have thought a lot about it.

    The fact that 2 out of your 3 players have almost reached their PA shows they can develop.

    Most players in real life don't get anywhere near their full potential. Just recalling a few Man Utd players over recent years that had massive PA - you would think "where are they now?" or "WHO!!"

    Grant Brebner, Phil Mulryne, Bodan Djordic, Michel Twiss, Luke Chadwick, Guiliano Maiorana (better than Giggs) and Ronnie Wallwork just to name a few.

    I've just come to the conclusion that youth development is almost right and the current young players have been massively over-rated - especially in England. I wouldn't rate any of the England squad (barring Rooney) at anything over 160 CA and 170 PA.

    People say Messi has a PA of 198 now in the game -- what would Pele, Best and Maradona be rated at then??

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    quote:
    have sort of changed my mind about this thread - I agreed 100% at the start but have thought a lot about it.

    The fact that 2 out of your 3 players have almost reached their PA shows they can develop.

    Most players in real life don't get anywhere near their full potential. Just recalling a few Man Utd players over recent years that had massive PA - you would think "where are they now?" or "WHO!!"

    Grant Brebner, Phil Mulryne, Bodan Djordic, Michel Twiss, Luke Chadwick, Guiliano Maiorana (better than Giggs) and Ronnie Wallwork just to name a few.


    There should be players that dont reach their potential but the problem is that regen players do not get anywhere near their potential untill their late twenties (and their is a lack of them). Look at giggs he was near his potential at a early age, rooney was, in fact some players are better at a early age (owen, ronaldo).

    I find this wont spoil my enjoyment of the game, ill just never play a game longer than 10 seasons because it just starts to look so unrealistic (which is the opposite of what fm has always tried to achieve).

    I find it very strange that si never picked up on this, its as if they didnt have any testers playing games longer than a few seasons.

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    quote:
    Originally posted by LutonNil:
    Excellent experiment.

    I have sort of changed my mind about this thread - I agreed 100% at the start but have thought a lot about it.

    The fact that 2 out of your 3 players have almost reached their PA shows they can develop.


    The sample rate is quite small. Furthermore, both Lulinla and Thiago started off with good CA and high reputation. Dean started with 66 and never got picked up by a top club. Since most regens have low CA, they might be following in the footsteps of Dean Vaughn instead of Lulinha.

    I'd rather base my conclusion on the overall numbers, which show a large decline in quality. Even though researchers can be biased, I still think that ratings are pretty good for this game. Therefore, regens should achieve a comparable level.

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    quote:
    People say Messi has a PA of 198 now in the game -- what would Pele, Best and Maradona be rated at then??


    can hardly compare best with the other two, i think messi is a much better player

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    A Few of the regens I have n my team (some on loan from bigger clubs). I don't know their Ca/Pa but for their ages 18-21, these look good/great to me.










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    quote:
    can hardly compare best with the other two



    These three are generally regarded as the best 3 players ever (I know you'll try to come up with alternatives) Cruyff, Garrincha, Steve Bull

    What would Best have achieved if he played for Brazil

    People seem to remember him for being an alcoholic

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    Here's a link to a 2034 savegame (It's not my own)
    http://rapidshare.com/files/68216281...ja2032.fm.html

    While the regens in that save game are on par with the best in the starting database, since there is now way of reggresing it, there is now way of really knowing how they got to be that way (wonderkids, late bloomers etc...) and as such doesn't answer any questions regarding development. However it allays any fears that 20 years in the future there will be a lack of quality players in the game.

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    quote:
    These three are generally regarded as the best 3 players ever (I know you'll try to come up with alternatives) Cruyff, Garrincha, Steve Bull

    What would Best have achieved if he played for Brazil

    People seem to remember him for being an alcoholic


    sorry might seemed like i was being a bit pedantic but i just think he has always been a bit overrated.

    why shouldn't a player such a messi get a pa of 198, why should he not be able reach the ability of the greats. Every generation has a batch of players that are probably just as good if not better than the batch before, athletes of all types get better and better.

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    I agree Messi could reach his potential (or get very close to it - 190+)

    But looking back at the savegame 1 stats there are 96 players with a CA of 170+ , 123 in save 2 and 137 in save 3

    This leads me to think that all players are currently over-rated - I don't believe there are 137 players in real life with a CA of 170+

    For example a good Blue Square North player in the game has a CA of 40-50 -- way over-rated compared to an average Premier player CA of 120-130

    The over-rating of current players is the thing that is screwing things up and I think the regen system over a length of time will even things up. You will still get world class players - this guy is close and there may be better players than him in this save.

    Lulinha - 25 yr - AMC - Roma
    2007 - 104/187
    2009 - 133/187
    2011 - 150/187
    2013 - 174/187
    2015 - 176/187

    He could hit 180 in the next year or two which would make him world class in my opinion.

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    i can see where you are coming from in that there could bt too many young players at the start of the game which are overrrated, but to only have 2 u21 players over CA140 in 4th save, and only 4 over CA140 in the 5th save is completley wrong. Most big teams throughout europe probably have atleast 2 u21 players which are way over a CA140

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    quote:
    The over-rating of current players is the thing that is screwing things up and I think the regen system over a length of time will even things up. You will still get world class players - this guy is close and there may be better players than him in this save.


    The ratings will even themselves out in the end but who wants national teams full of grandads in the meantime

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    Interesting experiment. I've been playing in the dafuge challenge and I have to say that I'm not seeing any wonderkids that are being signed by the big clubs like a Cristiano Ronaldo or Bojan type player.

    But, I'm still enjoying the game, and it'll be much more interesting when those types of players pop-up once every 5 years or something.

    However, I think you need to run all the divisions in those leagues to strengthen your argument, because the teams in the bottom division always end up loaning players.

    Another reason for high CA youths is maybe that they are based in poor countries. In my game I tried signing a regen (who was jobless) from the US but couldn't get him due to work permit.

    In conclusion, I think that there should be a couple of high CA/PA players regenerated every couple of years, cause your research does show that the CA of U-21 decreases thru the years.

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    quote:
    Originally posted by SiDolman:
    i can see where you are coming from in that there could bt too many young players at the start of the game which are overrrated, but to only have 2 u21 players over CA140 in 4th save, and only 4 over CA140 in the 5th save is completley wrong. Most big teams throughout europe probably have atleast 2 u21 players which are way over a CA140


    TBH I think 130-140 CA is a bit high for most U21's in real life anyway - with obvious exceptions

    These players shouldn't be hitting their peak until 25/26

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    let me put it another way. In the 4th and 5th save there are 119 and 100 players with over CA170, but there are no u21's in these totals. Out of the best 119 players at the moment could you not name a few u21's?

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    Savegame 6: August 1, 2017

    Total number of players: 52331...53322...53260...55119...55755...55817

    Players under 21:

    190 - 200 PA: 2.....6.....7.....10....7.....5
    180 - 189 PA: 21....22....39....41....41....39
    170 - 179 PA: 111...94....99....110...123...132
    160 - 169 PA: 160...112...92....94....93....85

    190 - 200 CA: 0.....0.....0.....0.....0.....0
    180 - 189 CA: 2.....0.....0.....0.....0.....0
    170 - 179 CA: 0.....0.....1.....0.....0.....0
    160 - 169 CA: 2.....6.....0.....0.....1.....0
    150 - 159 CA: 12....13....4.....0.....1.....1
    140 - 149 CA: 34....23....7.....2.....2.....4
    130 - 139 CA: 71....70....24....18....22....16
    120 - 129 CA: 183...110...59....77....76....60

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 1666.....1357.....1033.....947.....944.....936

    All-around athletes* : 113.....117.....38.....34.....36.....28

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

    Players between 21 and 24:

    190 - 200 PA: 6.....5.....3.....5.....10....9
    180 - 189 PA: 39....29....21....19....31....36
    170 - 179 PA: 92....110...99....79....89....103
    160 - 169 PA: 227...189...139...93....80....85

    190 - 200 CA: 0.....3.....2.....0.....0.....0
    180 - 189 CA: 2.....3.....3.....1.....0.....3
    170 - 179 CA: 15....25....24....9.....4.....5
    160 - 169 CA: 24....65....57....17....23....27
    150 - 159 CA: 60....156...133...95....51....58
    140 - 149 CA: 173...280...290...182...136...130
    130 - 139 CA: 353...540...475...356...234...241
    120 - 129 CA: 746...821...818...539...423...391

    Pace and acceleration >= 15: 2016.....1300.....811.....564.....464.....423

    All-around athletes* : 366.....331.....211.....139.....99.....79

    *Defined as pace & acceleration >=15, agility & balance & jumping & natural fitness & stamina & strength >=10

    All players

    190 - 200 CA: 1.....5.....4.....6.....6.....2
    180 - 189 CA: 18....23....28....16....10....14
    170 - 179 CA: 68....95....105...97....84....65

    Wasted Potential

    Players who underachieved*: 302.....222.....104.....104.....120.....135

    *Defined as players between 27 and 30 whose PA >= 150, but their PA - CA >= 20. These players are in their peak years, but have not come close to reaching their potential.


    International Caps

    Players under 25 with international caps: 1273..1280..1168..905...650...536
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2.....13....21....11....2.....2
    Oldest player >= 170 CA with no caps: Lucas[30] - 181 CA
    Highest CA without caps: Lucas[30] - 181 CA

    England
    Players under 25 with international caps: 13....7.....4.....3.....2.....1
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....5.....1.....0.....0

    Spain
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....5.....4.....2.....6.....4
    Undeserved Callup - Three players with CAs of 140, 151 and 152. It's becoming somewhat of a habit for Spain

    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....7.....5.....3.....0.....0

    Italy
    Players under 25 with international caps: 5.....9.....10....1.....2.....3
    Undeserved Callup - Two players with CAs of 144 and 153

    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....2.....1.....0


    France
    Players under 25 with international caps: 9.....7.....6.....3.....1.....5
    Undeserved Callup - Two players with CAs of 125 and 152. The 125 CA has been called up 9 times!! Do they really have no one better?

    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....2.....6.....1.....0.....2
    Biggest Snub - Phillippe Texier[24] - 167 CA

    Germany
    Players under 25 with international caps: 16....8.....1.....0.....2.....11
    Undeserved Callup - Nine of the eleven under 25 players have less than 160 CA. The worst callups are 125, 125, 128 and 133 CA.

    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....2.....1.....0.....0

    Holland
    Players under 25 with international caps: 20....10....7.....2.....0.....4
    Undeserved Callup - All four players are < 160 CA with the worst at 133.

    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....0.....1.....1.....0.....0

    Brazil
    Players under 25 with international caps: 21....13....9.....4.....2.....5
    Undeserved Callup - Two players with 150 CA and 158 CA.

    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....4.....3.....0.....0

    Argentina
    Players under 25 with international caps: 18....13....8.....3.....1.....1
    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 0.....1.....1.....0.....0.....0

    Analysis

    Both under-21 and 21-24 group regens stats have stabilized. Compare it to savegame 1 and there are drastic differences. We are starting to see a decrease in CA in "all players" as real life players retire. It will be clear in a couple more years.

    Due to the lowered CA, top international squads now regularly pick some truly undeserving players. For example, France has used a 125 CA right fullback 9 times. This is especially odd considering they have a 27 year old D RLC with 162 CA who has not been capped yet. In fact there are 12 players who >= 170 CA, but no caps. But at least Pato finally got his first cap at 26 with a CA of 188.

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    I'm not using an editor so I cannot give specific details. However, having taken over as manager of Scotland in 2012 I have been shocked at the quality of player coming through. There is not one regen that has been good enough to get into the national squad, or even near it. I have an aging squad with no sign of quality youngsters on the horizon.

    I was beaten by Lichtenstein and resigned in early 2013. All this despite being extremely successful as manager of Rangers.

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    Your Thread is truly Epic KUTGW

    It unequivocally confirms a suspicion I’ve had for a long time, that the game isn’t play tested nearly enough, definitely isn’t play tested long enough i.e. into 2025, and WE are the people that do the majority of the play testing, and it is up to US to point out the NUMEROUS bugs. I think that SI have become ever more reliant on us over the last few releases to do the play testing for them.

    Like you, I also like to play career games, and I am currently into 2018 with my Tottenham side, but at this point FM has become less of a game, and more of a doss-about, because it’s just too easy. As you have pointed out it is nearly impossible to find a “natural athlete” on the game, or even just a player who posses a modicum of pace and acceleration, the results of this are that defenders just get done for pace all the time, forwards and attacking midfielders simply run past defenders like they weren’t there. Take a look at this, Gabriel Agbonlahor in 2016, the same is also true for Scott Sinclair of Chelsea. Players armed only with the weapons of speed and acceleration will go on to score goals for fun, just look at Agbonlahor, he has finishing 12, yet 20 goals in 20 games tells its own story. I also concur with you regarding club teams and nations not recognising the ability of players, Banega, Ustari, Lulinha, and Pato are all uncapped on my game too, plus look at the club Agbonlahor’s at as well, they got him on a free because Villa didn’t think he was up to the grade.

    I think that to solve the problem of low quality regens, the game needs to be tweaked so that;

    1. Regens should have a better PA, they should also have better Aerobic and Strength stats, or more easily improvable strength and aerobic stats (through training)

    2. AI Club managers and national managers should play youngsters more and “blood” them at an earlier age, good youngsters do exist, it’s just a matter of playing them more, and sooner so they reach their PA. As I did with Tim Lichte, a regen I found (without using MINIscout) then played him gradually, as you can see “Tim Lichte's History” he’s had a very believable rise to become a first team regular, with a CA of 192 at the young age of 25. but this would never happen if he was managed by an AI manager, as they just play older players for longer.

    You may also be interested to know that I am currently experimenting; I’ve edited all the Belarusian clubs so that they all have Training 20, Youth setup 20 and they all have Youth Academies, to see if it makes any difference to the quality of the regens. I’ll keep you posted with the results later, when I’ve done enough seasons.

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    quote:
    Players under 21:

    190 - 200 PA: 2.....6.....7.....10....7.....5
    180 - 189 PA: 21....22....39....41....41....39
    170 - 179 PA: 111...94....99....110...123...132
    160 - 169 PA: 160...112...92....94....93....85

    190 - 200 CA: 0.....0.....0.....0.....0.....0
    180 - 189 CA: 2.....0.....0.....0.....0.....0
    170 - 179 CA: 0.....0.....1.....0.....0.....0
    160 - 169 CA: 2.....6.....0.....0.....1.....0
    150 - 159 CA: 12....13....4.....0.....1.....1
    140 - 149 CA: 34....23....7.....2.....2.....4
    130 - 139 CA: 71....70....24....18....22....16
    120 - 129 CA: 183...110...59....77....76....60


    Looking at this section of your experiment (which is fantastic, btw) I think one of the larger problems is poor youth development. The potential for great players is there, but they are either not being picked up early, or are not being developed properly by the time they hit 21-22.

    Another issue I'd like to raise is the point of the rapidly dropping number of players in the 110-150 CA category. While this is dropping in-game, the numbers you have given don't lie, but there could be many more youth players with a CA of 120-150 who WILL reach their potential early on in their career. My point is that without data on every CA and PA level, it is still hard to determine whether what we are seeing is permanent reduction or simply a pattern that changes every generation.

    But I will say fantastic work, gathering all this data is a great achievement, it really helps with some insight into how the game world works. Great job!

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    quote:
    PA of 120-150


    Forgive my lack of proofreading

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    What I can get from that data.


    Under 21 regens have just as much potential as the original players did. However, their current ability is a lot lower.

    21-24 again potential is as good if not better than at the start of the game. But actually, you are seeing decent current ability here too (and overall its also similar). Which means, players are developing. They just dont immediately start as instant superstars.

    In short, stop talking about this 'lowered CA' when actually your data shows that its still matching what it was at the start of the game. The only interesting thing is the lack of wonderkids, they are now having to train and get experience to get good.

    It does show lowered physical stats as you progress. Maybe SI is reading into the all kids are now obese thing a bit too much.

    Young players arent getting caps because they are taking more time to develop. I think we can safely say the second bit of data about young players with high CA not getting caps totally failed. Mainly because there are not as many young players WITH high CA.

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    I'm surprised no one has mentioned this more but the decline in physical stats is astounding. I'm assuming this must be a bug with the development of new players or their starting stats. To go from 2016 players with >15 pace and acceleration to 423 10 years later is a pretty drastic change!

    Great thread by the way SiN8!!

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    quote:
    Originally posted by Ross1:
    What I can get from that data.


    Under 21 regens have just as much potential as the original players did. However, their current ability is a lot lower.

    21-24 again potential is as good if not better than at the start of the game. But actually, you are seeing decent current ability here too (and overall its also similar). Which means, players are developing. They just dont immediately start as instant superstars.

    In short, stop talking about this 'lowered CA' when actually your data shows that its still matching what it was at the start of the game. The only interesting thing is the lack of wonderkids, they are now having to train and get experience to get good.

    It does show lowered physical stats as you progress. Maybe SI is reading into the all kids are now obese thing a bit too much.

    Young players arent getting caps because they are taking more time to develop. I think we can safely say the second bit of data about young players with high CA not getting caps totally failed. Mainly because there are not as many young players WITH high CA.


    Since youth are generated with lower CA, they have a much more difficult time reaching their PA. Compare savegame 3 (with all real life players) and savegame 6 (should be all regens) for 21-24 group. There's a substantial difference in quality.

    As for talented youth not been selected, there are still problems.

    Players under 25 >= 165 CA without caps: 2.....13....21....11....2.....2

    Savegame 3 (with all real players) show 21 players who got snubbed. The only reason the number decreased after that is because the lack of regens >= 165 CA. Pato got his first cap at 26. He was over 180 CA for 4 years before he got selected.

    As far as taking longer for youth to develop, we'll have to wait a couple of years before that can verified. In 2017, there are only 18 regens that have >= 170 CA. Averaging savegame 1 to savegame 3, you had about ~100 real life players with over 170 CA. I don't believe that regens will develop that well.

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    It will be interesting to see what SI have to say about this (if that is they choose not to ignore it...) as i've seen a few threads with people challenging the quality of regens and all they've got from SI is "it's fine" and that's been the end of it. It will be interesting to see them argue with just numbers.

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    A very interesting experiment with some startling results.

    It seems clear that there is no problem with the number of players generated who have the potential to be excellent. But the figures you've given clearly show that there is a problem with the number of young players with a lot of ability.
    It seems that more regens should appear who have a CA that is a little closer to their PA. Otherwise you'll just not see any wonderkids when you get further into the game and all players will take until their mid 20's to get near their potential. Some players should be quality when they are younger, as in real life.

    What's more alarming is the drop in the number of players with decent physical attributes. There has been a dramatic decrease hear and this definitely needs further investigation.

    KUTGW.

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    Gary Busey's dustbin
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    53,483

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    Great thread here, really great in-depth look at the regens. If you've got any of the save games avaliable, we'd really like to take a look at these so if you could upload them to the FTP we can use these statistics to have a good look at the regens.

  100. #100
    Amateur
    Join Date
    25th July 2005
    Location
    Germany
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    135

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    actually i have to say i am satisfied with the way youth develop now. in fm2007 i had after 15 seasons too many players that were class (ca 175++). it was just too much and like 20 high lvl teams were all rated the same (genie scout). now its rly making the difference between high lvl teams


    i hope it wont be changed, maybe only rebalance the physical stats a bit

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