*official* 2008 us election thread

my first official thread, and I've definitely earned it.

nearly every potential candidate has already announced, the fundraising and politicking has started and the media is clamoring for scoops. we're about 10 months away from the first american primaries to determine the democratic and republican candidates for president in what might be the most important election since 1960.

this thread will act as a placemark as otfers have questions about the process, will show polls showing current support and news items in what will be the longest election process in american history.

first: two polls were released this week - one by usa today and the other the wall street journal.

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB1171395005154075...s5Gg2g_20080213.html

the wall street journal poll shows a remarkably tight race between clinton and obama for the democratic candidacy with edwards and gore trailing, but with respectable scores. a surprising 15% of republicans would consider voting for obama.

on the gop side, colin powell leads the pack (although he's said nothing about even considering a run) with giuliani and mccain close behind.

in a single candidate runoff, clinton still leads obama 20-10 having a large advantage in democrat and independent voters.

lastly, and maybe most significantly, 6% more republicans would be willing to consider a democrat as president than vice versa, and democrats also lead independents by a full 10%. those swing voters determine elections and can help carry downstate races.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-02-13-2008-poll.htm

in the usa today poll, the numbers to watch are:

clinton still can't pull below 40% unfavorables. obama on the other hand is pulling more favorables than nons as the public learns more about him. giuliani still looks best with a 66% favorability rating, but pundits wonder how long that will last among republicans once his pro-choice, pro-gay rights stands come to the fore as well as his ugly divorce proceedings.

in a poll of 425 (very low) republicans, giuliani is distancing himself from mccain 40-24. no one else is breaking double digits. head-to-head, giuliani leads 57-39. in a poll of 495 democrats, clinton has extended her lead over obama to 40-21, with al gore and john edwards hovering around 15%. head-to-head, clinton crushes obama 62-33.

in theoretical contests, clinton has now taken the lead over mccain 50-47 and pulled within two points of giuliani 48-50. obama is even with mccain 48-48 but trails giuliani 43-52.

considering the high profile of the other three candidates, the numbers are all positives for obama. on the other hand, clinton will be relieved to have not lost any further ground to him while at the same time keeping one eye past the primaries and movin g up against the republicans.

the edwards campaign will be very troubled by these signs. his dramatic speech in new orleans does not seem to have given him the bump he needed. he's competing for air with obama and clinton and they have the senate to broadcast from.

religious and social conservatives are not happy with either mccain or giuliani. a dark horse like sam brownback has a lot of room to flank the two frontrunners on the far right.

let's keep this thread serious and on topic.

no one cares

when is it?

USA USA USA!

I almost started this thread yesterday so I could annoy the Yanks. I wish I did now, I would have put capital letters in the thread title, shambles

Bags the *Official* 2007 Irish General Election Thread in a month or two

Originally posted by Rob1981:

when is it?

Would guess the second Thursday of November, 2008

ok i have a question.

why does clinton poll so many unfavourables? in other words, why do people either love her or hate her?

Originally posted by Rob1981:

when is it?

the primaries to determine the final democratic and republican candidate begin in january 2008. the actual election takes place in november 2008.

because of the lead clinton has in organization (inherited most of bill's people), money (a loophole in election law means you can transfer money from one campaign into another, so clinton starts off with $20,000,000 she didn't spend on her senate campaign), and visibility most of the democratic challengers entered early to give themselves time to gain ground.

john edwards, barack obama, hillary clinton, tom vilsack, chris dodd, joe biden and dennis kucinich have all announced, with wes clark and bill richardson expected to announce soon and al gore undecided.

the republicans had to jump in early as well to keep the democrats from hogging up all the air time.

john mccain, mitt romney, sam brownback and mike huckabee have all announced with rudy giuliani expected soon and newt gingrich undecided.

fyi...ralph nader is also threatening running under the green party banner again as well.

Universal healthcare or something, isn't it

Isn't McCain a bit old to be a serious candidate? Isn't he 70? Even if you agree with his politics, at that age i'd be put off voting for him.

Then again, if he's still mentally with it then there's nothing to say he'd have to go for a 2nd term should he win the first time round.

I'll make the prediction of Guiliani winning the Republican nomination and Obama is the Democrat's nominee. Guiliani wins the presidency quite comfortably as surely Guiliani's policies would interest a fair amount of Democrats and he's quite a bit more experienced then Obama which IMO will see him through.

It is simply waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early for this. I won't even care in December.

Originally posted by JK Galgreefe:

ok i have a question.

why does clinton poll so many unfavourables? in other words, why do people either love her or hate her?

goes back to bill's term in the white house. conservatives hated her line about being co-presidents, her "arrogance" about championing universal healthcare and her willingness to speak out against bias in the media (she coined the phrase "vast right-wing conspiracy").

many progressives and leftists hate her because she refuses to apologize for her iraq war vote, she's part of the dlc (a democratic group of "centrists" that are claimed to mirror many republican policies) and will take 150 polls before announcing which way she stands on an issue.

Ain't nobody trying to give Newt Gingrich some. l don't give a f**k, you ain't never gonna hear Newt Gingrich go: ''Man, l wish these hoes would back up off me. I wish they would just back the f**k up off me. Let a player play, s**t!'

what does 'gop' stand for? i think i asked this before and got an answer, but my goldfish-like memory excels itself once more

Originally posted by San:

It is simply waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early for this. I won't even care in December.

your privilege and I can't really dispute you for it. on the other hand, as I said earlier, this election is historic in its importance and the early candidacies. hopefully this thread could act as a clearinghouse for tidbits of news so you won't have to wade through dozens of 4 and 5 reply threads.

Originally posted by Nick OGS20:

what does 'gop' stand for? i think i asked this before and got an answer, but my goldfish-like memory excels itself once more

grand old party

Originally posted by Nick OGS20:

what does 'gop' stand for? i think i asked this before and got an answer, but my goldfish-like memory excels itself once more

"Grand Old Party" iirc.

Originally posted by Moreclaw:

Isn't McCain a bit old to be a serious candidate? Isn't he 70? Even if you agree with his politics, at that age i'd be put off voting for him.

Then again, if he's still mentally with it then there's nothing to say he'd have to go for a 2nd term should he win the first time round.

I'll make the prediction of Guiliani winning the Republican nomination and Obama is the Democrat's nominee. Guiliani wins the presidency quite comfortably as surely Guiliani's policies would interest a fair amount of Democrats and he's quite a bit more experienced then Obama which IMO will see him through.

it's a concern since his health isn't as good as perceived publicly due to the torture and conditions of his imprisonment in vietnam.

a 1-term deal with the vp piggybacking off of him might be likely, but he is singularly focused on becoming the president and I doubt this will slow him down enough to matter.

he's also not that much older than reaganwhen he took office and reagan's the gop's patron saint.

giuliani's biggest problem is going to be the primaries. conservative blogs are up in arms just about him dressing up in drag as a gag on a sort if hignfy-type show.

Top Gear teaches me that the south needs to chill a bit.

Honestly though, I don't see how dressing up in drag for TV would make the slightest difference to anything - I can't see how anyone would think it would effect the sort of president he would be. It's not as if he's made a career out of being a US Lily Savage.

Originally posted by Moreclaw:

...I'll make the prediction of Guiliani winning the Republican nomination and Obama is the Democrat's nominee. Guiliani wins the presidency quite comfortably as surely Guiliani's policies would interest a fair amount of Democrats and he's quite a bit more experienced then Obama which IMO will see him through.

I disagree with the prediction of any Republican winning quite comfortably: the whole party is stained in the eyes of many Democrats, and I don't think even Guiliani will be able to distance himself sufficiently from the Bush presidency.

Right now I think the Dem. candidacy is between Clinton and Obama. Of the two I would prefer Obama, who seems more prone to independent thought. And I think the Dem. candidate will win.

Is there any real chance of Powell being involved?

I'm counting on Guiliani's personal cross party popularity seeing him through, rather then counting on solely the fact that he's running as a Republican.

There's almost 2 years until the election, plenty of time for the situation to recover a bit for the Republicans.

Originally posted by Moreclaw:

Top Gear teaches me that the south needs to chill a bit.

Honestly though, I don't see how dressing up in drag for TV would make the slightest difference to anything - I can't see how anyone would think it would effect the sort of president he would be. It's not as if he's made a career out of being a US Lily Savage.

that's the dynamic of politics today and how much the fundamentalist religious right have come to dominate the republican party.

MAN LOVE RULES OK

NASCAR SUCKS

COUNTRY AND WESTERN IS RUBBISH

Originally posted by Daaaaave:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Moreclaw:

Top Gear teaches me that the south needs to chill a bit.

Honestly though, I don't see how dressing up in drag for TV would make the slightest difference to anything - I can't see how anyone would think it would effect the sort of president he would be. It's not as if he's made a career out of being a US Lily Savage.

that's the dynamic of politics today and how much the fundamentalist religious right have come to dominate the republican party. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Sad state of affairs really, but it gives Top Gear plenty to work with.

What Hairy Coo said.

Originally posted by Oggy73:

Is there any real chance of Powell being involved?

no. his real draw was with crossover democrats and independents and neither of them would touch him after his prostituted his integrity to sell the war in iraq.

Mon the black guy

Originally posted by Daaaaave:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Oggy73:

Is there any real chance of Powell being involved?

no. his real draw was with crossover democrats and independents and neither of them would touch him after his prostituted his integrity to sell the war in iraq. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>and he's caring for his mentally ill wife.

can all the mongo Brits please stay in the celebrity Big Brother thread, the adults have to talk about serious things in here kthx

It's finished though

Originally posted by Moreclaw:

It's finished though

Originally posted by Daaaaave:

as I said earlier, this election is historic in its importance and the early candidacies.

It's also the first election since 1928 that an incumbent president or vice president is not running, which means it's more wide-open than normal.

By the time the actual election comes round, this thread will be dead...surely.

Originally posted by Jonno-Blood:

By the time the actual election comes round, this thread will be dead...surely.

Apoligies, and I hope they're accepted

Originally posted by Jason the Yank:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Daaaaave:

as I said earlier, this election is historic in its importance and the early candidacies.

It's also the first election since 1928 that an incumbent president or vice president is not running, which means it's more wide-open than normal. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

haha unless you believe the "cheney will resign and mccain will become vp" rumors

Way too early for a thread like this. The parties havent even finalised their candidates yet :/

no ****. now go play in traffic

Originally posted by Daaaaave:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Jason the Yank:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Daaaaave:

as I said earlier, this election is historic in its importance and the early candidacies.

It's also the first election since 1928 that an incumbent president or vice president is not running, which means it's more wide-open than normal. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

haha unless you believe the "cheney will resign and mccain will become vp" rumors </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Complicated by the fact Bush still hates McCain, IIRC.

Originally posted by Daaaaave:

nah

Could that be any more awkward?

meh, it'll be McCain beating Hillary when it's all said and done :/

Brilliant of you to start this thread I've been pushing Jason to do so for a while, but he's refused every time.

Originally posted by Daaaaave:

he's also not that much older than reaganwhen he took office and reagan's the gop's patron saint.

"I will not, for political gain or otherwise, make my opponent's experience an issue of this campaign"

Originally posted by Oggy73:

I don't think even Guiliani will be able to distance himself sufficiently from the Bush presidency.

IIRC, Giuliani practically gave Bush a verbal blow job at the Republican convention in 2004.

Originally posted by Jason the Yank:

It's also the first election since 1928 that an incumbent president or vice president is not running, which means it's more wide-open than normal.

That's quite an interesting statistic. Didn't Truman back out of running for a second term, though - but I guess his VP still ran?

that's where the smart money is, but the evangelicals refuse to support mccain despite bush's marching orders and the early announcements means hillary's money doesn't count quite as much, plus she's already getting irritable about being asked about iraq constantly.

long ways to go

and as stated in another thread, obama clowning on australia's pm howard makes him look like a serious player who won't take ****

Originally posted by Daaaaave:

and as stated in another thread, obama clowning on australia's pm howard makes him look like a serious player who won't take ****

I hadn't heard of that, but I just googled it. If only our PM would commit a similar folly as Howard!

can anyone be arsed to explain the 'primaries' process? must admit I don't have a clue how they actually arrive at the candidates.

Originally posted by BoroPhil:

can anyone be arsed to explain the 'primaries' process? must admit I don't have a clue how they actually arrive at the candidates.

each state has a vote. different states have different rules for how the votes are transferred into support for the candidates, either % of total vote or winner take all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_primary

iowa and new hampshire are historically the first two states to hold their primary and these are watched very closely. in 2004, dick gephardt was supposed to do well in iowa because of his midwest background and strong union ties, likewise wesley clark skipped iowa and spent all of his time campaigning in new hampshire. both of them did poorly in those states and their candidacies were essentially over before february of 2004.

on the other hand, john edwards set up a formidable grassroots organization in iowa, and finished second in the voting. he went from running 5th or 6th in national polls to 3rd overnight.

cheers

the 2008 primary calendar as it stands right now.

January 14, 2008 - Iowa

January 19, 2008 - Nevada

January 22, 2008 - New Hampshire

January 29, 2008 - South Carolina

February 5, 2008 - Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma,Utah

February 9, 2008 - Nebraska

February 10, 2008 - Maine

February 12, 2008 - District of Columbia, Tennessee, Virginia

February 19, 2008 - Wisconsin

February 26, 2008 - Hawaii, Idaho

March 2008 (date to be determined) - American Samoa, Democrats Abroad, Guam, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Virgin Islands, Wyoming

March 4, 2008 - Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont

March 7, 2008 - Colorado

March 8, 2008 - Kansas

March 11, 2008 - Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi

March 18, 2008 - Illinois, Oregon

April 2008 (date to be determined) - Alaska

April 1, 2008 - Pennsylvania

May 6, 2008 - Indiana

May 13, 2008 - West Virginia

May 20, 2008 - Kentucky

May 27, 2008 - Washington

June 3, 2008 - Montana, South Dakota, California

some states (notably california) are trying to get their primary moved up.

march 4 is what's known as "super tuesday" since it's the day with the largest number of delegates to be voted.

California voted to move it up into February yesterday I think.

I think Illinois is trying to move theirs to Feb. 5 as well.

March 2008 (date to be determined) - American Samoa, Democrats Abroad, Guam, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Virgin Islands, Wyoming

'Mon

Would AS, Guam, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico ever become states, instead of territories or whatever they are now?