"It's Unrealistic!" - Cumulative Probability and You

I keep seeing threads about “unrealistic” situations. Players smashing in hundreds of long shots. Strikers not scoring. And so on. And at first, I’m confused, as I’m not really experiencing these, with the possible exception of the GK long balls. And then I thought about it.

How many real life games are played? Well, I’ll stick to the Premiership, and that works out at 360 games over a season if I’ve done my thinking right.

Now lets look at FM. I don’t know how many copies are sold, (I know past games have sold millions), but I’ll be very conservative and say 250k. How many people play in the Premiership? Again, I’m not sure, but I’ll make a, probably conservative, estimate of a fifth. So that makes 50,000 people playing in the Premiership. How long does it take them to play a season? Well, I know some people had done it within a day or two of release, and I’m sure others haven’t finished their first, but lets say that they’ve probably averaged one season each.

These are all assumptions, but I don’t think they’re unrealistic.

So, we’ve got 50,000 seasons. Of course, you only watch your own matches, so that’s 36 a season. Or in other words, that’s 1.8 million Premiership matches played since release. 5000 times more than a full season IRL.

What does that have to do with unrealistic situations? Well, lets say, a big dumb centre back has a 0.1% chance of scoring a wonder goal every match. Not going to happen, right? But hang on a sec. If you have 1.8 million matches, you’d expect him to score in 1800 of them. So, 1800 people see big dumb centre back scoring a wonder goal. They think it’s unrealistic. They come onto the forums and make themselves known.

Same might well apply to hitting the woodwork. The chances of hitting the woodwork 9 times in a match might be tiny, but given the amount of games being played, some people are going to experience it. They, quite reasonably, think it’s unrealistic, and complain.

It’s highly unlikely a great striker will go 30 games without scoring. But it’s not impossible. And once more, the cumulative probability of the huge amount of games being played means that it’s almost certain some people will get it.

So to summarise, just because you’re experiencing something “unrealistic”, doesn’t mean there’s a flaw in the game. You might well just be a victim of cumulative probability. That’s not to say there are no problems, just that many of the supposed ones might not be so.

I keep seeing threads about “unrealistic” situations. Players smashing in hundreds of long shots. Strikers not scoring. And so on. And at first, I’m confused, as I’m not really experiencing these, with the possible exception of the GK long balls. And then I thought about it.

How many real life games are played? Well, I’ll stick to the Premiership, and that works out at 360 games over a season if I’ve done my thinking right.

Now lets look at FM. I don’t know how many copies are sold, (I know past games have sold millions), but I’ll be very conservative and say 250k. How many people play in the Premiership? Again, I’m not sure, but I’ll make a, probably conservative, estimate of a fifth. So that makes 50,000 people playing in the Premiership. How long does it take them to play a season? Well, I know some people had done it within a day or two of release, and I’m sure others haven’t finished their first, but lets say that they’ve probably averaged one season each.

These are all assumptions, but I don’t think they’re unrealistic.

So, we’ve got 50,000 seasons. Of course, you only watch your own matches, so that’s 36 a season. Or in other words, that’s 1.8 million Premiership matches played since release. 5000 times more than a full season IRL.

What does that have to do with unrealistic situations? Well, lets say, a big dumb centre back has a 0.1% chance of scoring a wonder goal every match. Not going to happen, right? But hang on a sec. If you have 1.8 million matches, you’d expect him to score in 1800 of them. So, 1800 people see big dumb centre back scoring a wonder goal. They think it’s unrealistic. They come onto the forums and make themselves known.

Same might well apply to hitting the woodwork. The chances of hitting the woodwork 9 times in a match might be tiny, but given the amount of games being played, some people are going to experience it. They, quite reasonably, think it’s unrealistic, and complain.

It’s highly unlikely a great striker will go 30 games without scoring. But it’s not impossible. And once more, the cumulative probability of the huge amount of games being played means that it’s almost certain some people will get it.

So to summarise, just because you’re experiencing something “unrealistic”, doesn’t mean there’s a flaw in the game. You might well just be a victim of cumulative probability. That’s not to say there are no problems, just that many of the supposed ones might not be so.

i play game many years and see lot of versions of match engine and can see when ai is being unrealistic. lower skill player seem to peform too well and probabilities are too bias toward acts of brilliance. just need balance. not match engine flaw, just balance of probabilities. so I half agree it is numbers but numbers are too much in favour of ai.

why can I say this? because i dont see my players doing same thing. if I did then I could not really complain, despite not liking it so 'exciting' in match, it would be fair yes?

and game seem to make me victim more than ever before. this why I raise point on forum not because I just annoyed I lose or expect to win every game with same tactic etc.

i also say before that I have had season with no problems usually first season then second season, even with new tactic and better players I see this ai getting ridiculous goals and chances from nothing.

many bugs also in match engine, like player hitting ball into back of own teammate, then rebound being goal for ai etc. silly stuff that does happen 1 in million happen 1 in 5!

I keep seeing threads about “unrealistic” situations. Players smashing in hundreds of long shots. Strikers not scoring. And so on. And at first, I’m confused, as I’m not really experiencing these, with the possible exception of the GK long balls. And then I thought about it.

How many real life games are played? Well, I’ll stick to the Premiership, and that works out at 360 games over a season if I’ve done my thinking right.

Now lets look at FM. I don’t know how many copies are sold, (I know past games have sold millions), but I’ll be very conservative and say 250k. How many people play in the Premiership? Again, I’m not sure, but I’ll make a, probably conservative, estimate of a fifth. So that makes 50,000 people playing in the Premiership. How long does it take them to play a season? Well, I know some people had done it within a day or two of release, and I’m sure others haven’t finished their first, but lets say that they’ve probably averaged one season each.

These are all assumptions, but I don’t think they’re unrealistic.

So, we’ve got 50,000 seasons. Of course, you only watch your own matches, so that’s 36 a season. Or in other words, that’s 1.8 million Premiership matches played since release. 5000 times more than a full season IRL.

What does that have to do with unrealistic situations? Well, lets say, a big dumb centre back has a 0.1% chance of scoring a wonder goal every match. Not going to happen, right? But hang on a sec. If you have 1.8 million matches, you’d expect him to score in 1800 of them. So, 1800 people see big dumb centre back scoring a wonder goal. They think it’s unrealistic. They come onto the forums and make themselves known.

Same might well apply to hitting the woodwork. The chances of hitting the woodwork 9 times in a match might be tiny, but given the amount of games being played, some people are going to experience it. They, quite reasonably, think it’s unrealistic, and complain.

It’s highly unlikely a great striker will go 30 games without scoring. But it’s not impossible. And once more, the cumulative probability of the huge amount of games being played means that it’s almost certain some people will get it.

So to summarise, just because you’re experiencing something “unrealistic”, doesn’t mean there’s a flaw in the game. You might well just be a victim of cumulative probability. That’s not to say there are no problems, just that many of the supposed ones might not be so.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

cound'nt agree more!

with the op

I think the majority of people who are making complaints about the game engine are doing so because they're seeing the same problems occuring regularly, rather than because it happened once and they aren't happy.

Also, it's 380 games in a Premier League season, not 360.

I'm at work and therefore can't offer the kind of response I would like but I just wanted to say I thought that was an excellent original post and I hope this thread sticks around and dome interesting discussion ensues.

I think the majority of people who are making complaints about the game engine are doing so because they're seeing the same problems occuring regularly, rather than because it happened once and they aren't happy.

Also, it's 380 games in a Premier League season, not 360.

yes. thank you for saying in one line what I cant say in my shitty english in 10 line. lol.

i play game many years and see lot of versions of match engine and can see when ai is being unrealistic. lower skill player seem to peform too well and probabilities are too bias toward acts of brilliance. just need balance. not match engine flaw, just balance of probabilities. so I half agree it is numbers but numbers are too much in favour of ai.

why can I say this? because i dont see my players doing same thing. if I did then I could not really complain, despite not liking it so 'exciting' in match, it would be fair yes?

and game seem to make me victim more than ever before. this why I raise point on forum not because I just annoyed I lose or expect to win every game with same tactic etc.

i also say before that I have had season with no problems usually first season then second season, even with new tactic and better players I see this ai getting ridiculous goals and chances from nothing.

many bugs also in match engine, like player hitting ball into back of own teammate, then rebound being goal for ai etc. silly stuff that does happen 1 in million happen 1 in 5!

The game does not favour the AI... In fact in my experience I swear it favours me!

What you're experiencing is called paranoia!

The game does not favour the AI... In fact in my experience I swear it favours me!

What you're experiencing is called paranoia!

i am french.

seriously : not to mistake me saying silly things and wonder goals and skill happen too much to me saying game bias. I think it not intentional, just bad balance. also I think season gap cause weird things to happen to ai probabilities and bonuses. player seem to be up for match against me if I favourites, sure this is fair, but he can be a little too good on the day. you understand me?

If I was being completely honest, I'd have to say that I feel as if the match engine favours me a lot more than it works against me.

I think the majority of people who are making complaints about the game engine are doing so because they're seeing the same problems occuring regularly, rather than because it happened once and they aren't happy.

Cumulative probablity applies to this too. Someone having a 30 yarder scored against them once doesn't raise eyebrows. Someone having them scored against them 10 games in a row seems unrealistic. But given how many people play FM it's pretty much certain that some of them will experience this.

As I said at the end, I'm not saying none of the problems are real, just that because something seems wrong, it's could well just be you being unlucky.

Also, it's 380 games in a Premier League season, not 360.

OK, yes, that's true. My maths sucks

I dont think people are moaning if they see one wonder goal, I think they are seeing it week after week and it happens a lot more often than IRL.

I dont think people are moaning if they see one wonder goal, I think they are seeing it week after week and it happens a lot more often than IRL.

yes and important point: from weak player with poor stat often against run of play.

I'd say on the whole I agree with what the Op had to say. It's a very good point and perhaps accounts for a large percentage of problems posted on here. Granted, as we all know, there are bugs present in the game but surely the fact that not everybody experiences all of them can be held accountable to what was mentioned in the opening post.

I think a big problem with forums such as this, is that it doesn't necessarily always paint an accurate picture. If you go with the figure of 250k games sold, then only a very small percentage of those people post in here, and people generally only post if they have a problem. In my eyes this might make the game look worse then it actually is due to some of the hysteria created on here.