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AI Experiment - A Whole New World...


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Walcott's Wonderkids presents....

AI Experiment - A Whole New World

Introduction

Hello everyone and welcome to this brand new AI Experiment.

This experiment, along with a few others of late, is done using a ‘no player’ database. I plan to load the top league from every playable country in the FM World and to the use Genie Scout to analyse the how the FM World develops over time.

I am using the one provide by Dietspam on the editors forum (credit to him for the db), which has all the players removed but still keeps all the staff. I would also like to credit Kipfizh as some of my updates are adaptations of how he presents data.

So what will I actually be talking about:

1. I will give seasonal updates on how the distribution of players ability is made up and how it is spread across the globe

2. How the nations and teams are performing in well-known competitions.

3. Every year I will be selecting a few chosen individuals who I follow over the length of their career to see how they develop.

So what questions am I looking to answer with this experiment:

1. Over time will the same traditional powerhouses of football dominate again?

2. Will any of the lesser nations come to the fore and make it big over time?

3. With similar experiments done in the past it is usually the greyed out clubs / nations that star at first until the other sides come up to scratch - how long will this affect last for? And now that 51 nations across the globe are been used will this mean that tournaments such as World Cup 2010 features games like Macedonia v Solomon Islands or Faroe Islands v Guatemala?

4. How long will it take for the 51 ‘league’ nations to come back up to scratch again?

5. Will the continued existence of top managers such as Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger play a baring in bringing through players?

So let the game begin.... :):thup:

Background details to the game

* Large database size - whilst maybe not crucial at the start, will hopefully help provide a more diverse database of player nationalities.

* The base domestic league is the Hong Kong league.

* I am running on full detail:

- All senior international competitions

- All club based continental competitions.

* No domestic leagues are being run in full detail (apart from Hong Kong).

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you must have a pretty powerful machine to run 51 leagues, even if it is top division only. :D

It gets annoying to see this stated all over the forums.

On my save game I'm using a large database with every possible playable division (not all on full detail though) and it doesn't run slowly at all. I'm using a laptop which can't even run Portal at a normal speed but it can handle all the playable divisions in FM2008 with no trouble at all.

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July 2007 (Part One)

So the game begins. As soon as the game begun I loaded up Genie Scout to provide the initial stats of this FM gaming world.

Here is the basic data from July 2007:

Initial Stats

Individuals

                               July 2007

No. of players		=	14,724

Oldest	players		=	20yr

Youngest players	=	14yr



Highest individual CA	=	100  (USA)  (Note: next highest CA is 90)


Highest individual PA	=	3 players with a PA of 188  (2 Brazilians, 1 French)

General FM World

Spread of top 20 players in the world according to current ability:

USA           -  18

Burkino Faso  -   1
Canada	      -   1


Spread of top 20 players in the world according to potential ability:

Brazil	     -  4
USA	     -  4

France	     -  2
Holland	     -  2

Austria      -  1
Benin 	     -  1
China	     -  1
Colombia     -  1
Italy 	     -  1
Norway	     -  1
Russia	     -  1
Switzerland  -  1



Spread of CA's greater than 150:

July:      2007

150+   =   None



Spread of PA's greater than 150:

July:      2007

190+   =     0
180+   =    11
170+   =    57
160+   =    98
150+   =   246

Notes

- For the large No. of Americans who have the highest CA's, the majority of them are not actually with MLS clubs at the start of the game.

- The reason for lots of Americans having the highest CA's could be in part down to the USA season already having begun by the time the game started in July 2007, however even accounting for this there are other leagues which start earlier than July / August that haven’t seen an effect like this!

- Interesting that apart from USA, Brazil is the country that has the highest No. of potential superstars amongst those with the top 20 PA's.

Next up, introducing the first 5 players who we will be following...

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Guest roberto922

But the importance of football is low so that should factor, why don't China and Russia have loads if you're going by that?

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I wonder if the high presence of American players has anythig to do with the draft system as a large number of players need to be generated for that (it would explain why some of them are not at MLS clubs too if they were overlooked when players were picked).

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But the importance of football is low so that should factor, why don't China and Russia have loads if you're going by that?

I think the most peculiar thing about this is that the good Americans aren't even at MLS clubs to start with.

It's no a fluke as well as when I did a trial run of the experiment for a few seasons it was noticeable that the Americans had several good players initially!

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The Spotlight: Players to Watch

July 2007 Edition

Julian Jordan

CA = 100

PA = 179

This 19yr old American is rated as currently the best player in the World in July 2007, having a CA of 100, ten points greater than anyone else in the FM World.

He currently plays for non-league Cape Cod Crusader in the USA, but surely it won't be too long until a MLS club picks up his services.

Gilson Ferreira

PA = 188

This 15yr old Brazilian forward is currently on the books of Cruziero. It will be interesting to watch how long he stays in Brazil for before moving to Europe.

Jackson Santos

PA = 188

Also a fellow 15yr old Brazilian forward, Santos is being touted as the next 'Jairzinho'. Currently with Corinthians, he could form a formidable partnership with fellow Brazilian striker Ferriera in the future.

Regis Charrier

PA = 188

The 15yr old French right-back is currently with Lens. It will be intriguing to see how a potentially good defending will develop compared to the 2 young Brazilian strikers.

and finally...

Igor Sokolovskyi

I had to bring him to your attention, mainly because I've not seen a 52 player / coach in FM previously. Will be intriguing to see how much longer he lasts as a player!!!

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Great experiment, looking forward to see how this turns out. And...

1. Over time will the same traditional powerhouses of football dominate again?

I believe so, I remember seeing in Kipfizh's experiment with England, Spain and Italy remaining the top 3 leagues in Europe even after so many years (and regens). Probably not as relevant with every disappearing at the start.

League reputation (and consequently prize money) should mean we'll see the same leagues at the top eventually.

2. Will any of the lesser nations come to the fore and make it big over time?

Should be very competitive at the start with so little difference between the nations, could probably come down to who has the best manager (tactically, motivation and whatever else) to see which nations come out on top.

Though after your first update, the USA seems a good chance.

3. With similar experiments done in the past it is usually the greyed out clubs / nations that star at first until the other sides come up to scratch - how long will this affect last for? And now that 51 nations across the globe are been used will this mean that tournaments such as World Cup 2010 features games like Macedonia v Solomon Islands or Faroe Islands v Guatemala?

Do these experiments include the 8.0.2 update? (which reduced the strength of those teams). As that AC Milan cheat to get a reserve team full of amazing youngsters could mean the top teams do well.

I suppose everyone will be signing players though, so the grey teams should probably come out on top initially.

As for the world cup, seems entirely possible. Euro 08 will be somewhat interesting with most of the qualifiers already being done.

4. How long will it take for the 51 ‘league’ nations to come back up to scratch again?

Erm, maybe 5 years for regens to get trained? No idea. :(

5. Will the continued existence of top managers such as Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger play a baring in bringing through players?

Believe so, as they have the highest JPA/JCA so they should be able to.

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Isn't the Americans just so good because their regens are generally older? Most American-based players are generated as the age of 18 or 19, while in most other countries they're generated at 16.

Great experiment :thup:

Ah right, I hadn't realised that that was sometimes the case. Looking back at the data via Genie Scout and it certainly seems as if that could be a partial explanation to it yeah. :thup:

Cycladic - interesting thoughts there, after looking at EURO 2008 it was certainly an interesting tournament as as you said, most of the big names were there. :)

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July 2008 Update (Part One of Four)

2007 / 2008 International Football Review

African Nations

Group Stages

KO Tree

This competition was relatively unaffected by the no player database as with South Africa being the only playable league in Africa, they were the only team who had regens in their side, all the others either had all greyed out players or only one or two squad player regens at this early stage.

As a result South Africa crashed out in the group stages with nil points in a competition that saw Nigeria face Tunisia in the Final. Tunisia triumphed 2-1 to win the 1st International Tournament in this new FM World.

Oceania Nations Cup 2008

Group League Table

Final

New Zealand did not have any regens at the start of the game (have since come through), but due to this the whole tournament was for greyed out players and as a result there were no shocks here, New Zealand strolling through to pick up the trophy, beating the Solomon Islands in the 2 legged final.

EURO 2008

Group Stages

KO Stages

As most of the big nations were pretty much secured in their spots for qualification, plus with their nearest rivals also affected by regens, only a couple of the smaller nations managed to spring a surprise and qualify for the finals in June - Bosnia & Albania.

So with 14 of the 16 teams featuring regens, would Bosnia or Albania be able to surprise the footballing world and win the tournament. Well Bosnia demolished their group, 3 wins out of 3 against Turkey, Austria and the Dutch made it look ominous for the others, but Albania were sent crashing out as Italy & Germany qualified from their group.

Into the knockout stages and Bosnia had lady luck on their side, beating Portugal and then Czech Rep both on penalties so secure a place in the Final against the Germans (still making Finals even with the handicap of regens :rolleyes::D).

However, it was Bosnia who would surprise the World with an astonishing 5-1 rout of the Germans in the Final, to secure their 1st ever International Tournament victory.

Bosnia do now have a few regen players coming through so their moment in the limelight could be fading already.

World Cup Qualification

WC2010 qualification has already begun in several continents around the world.

In Asia...

3rd Round Groups 1 - 4

Group 5

China was probably the only casualty not to make it through the 1st KO Round, but it looks as if South Korea are on the verge of being knocked out at this penultimate group stage. Australia, whilst leading their group, as started to see regens coming through and they may struggle in the final group stage next season.

In North America...

The two big sides in North American football of Mexico and USA are down to one. Both nations have playable leagues in FM and so both national sides were full or regens and it showed. Mexico were beaten in their first tie of the competition, losing 1-5 on agg to El Salvador. The USA on the other hand, boasting 18 of the top 20 players in the World as at July 2007 came from behind over 2 legs and required extra time to see of Antigua & Barbuda in their tie!

Those eagled eyes amongst you may also note thgat Julian Jordan - the best player in the world as at July 2007 was featuring for the USA in the game below.

USA v Antigua & Barbuda

3rd Round Group Draw

and finally, in South America...

Group Table

Left to last as this is where the big news is. As approx half of the nations in South America have playable leagues, it means that some of the lesser nations are full of greyed players and so have an advantage over the nations with regens. As a result, Paraguay (who aren't a bad side in the 1st place) are strolling to qualification with 6 out of 6 wins.

Brazil are back in 4th place, the last automatic spot with Venezuela hovering in 5th place, the playoff spot. However, Argentina are right off the pace, currently in 8th and below the likes of Peru and Chile who also have a team full of regen players. Particularly embarassing for them was their 0-9 spanking by Paraguay, who were coming off a high of beating Chile 8-0 just 4 days earlier.

World Rankings

In terms of the World Rankings, Brazil are top ahead of France & Germany, but Paraguay are now up to 4th with their impressive displays of late. Bosnia, the new European champions are 8th and Tunisia are up to 13th after winning the African Nations. Argentina are 11th and dropping fast.

England, who didn't qualify for EURO 2008, are 15th; Scotland 42nd; Rep Ireland 75th; Wales 81st & N Ireland are 95th.

Kazakhstan are 50th! ;)

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Bosnia for Euro 2008 :cool:

That's quite something, going by memory we're missing Greece and Romania, so should be interesting to see how they missed out.

Randomly, in fm08, Germany is a greyed out team unless you take measures to 'unmask' them. Did this take effect in your experiment? If it did, then Bosnia beating them 5-1 is really something. :eek:

Can't wait to see the league updates, especially the Champions League (as there are a couple of greyed out teams in there, right?). We may not have to wait till the end of this season to see a Cypriot team winning the Champions League. :D

Also, the spread of the USA regens will be good to see. If any actually stayed at home (though I believe not many started there?) and how many have made they're way to the top 3 leagues in Europe.

Great update, can't wait to see the next 3 parts, kutgw :D

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July 2008 Update (Part Two of Four)

2007/2008 Domestic Football Review

Champions League

Groups A-D

Groups E-H

KO Tree

Final: Roma v Lyon

As most of Europe's leagues are currently playable, the effect of teams from lesser leagues dominating the continental competitions like Bosnia in EURO2008 did not really happen. However, some notable large sides did miss out on the KO stages - Barcelona, Chelsea & Valencia the most high profile sides. Sides from Portugal & France seem to have coped with the new FM World the best, with 4 of the 8 Q Finalists coming from those nations and no team from Spain in the last 8 of the competition.

In the end it came down to Roma v Lyon and an injury time winner clinched a 2-1 win for Roma.

UEFA Cup

1st KO Round

2nd KO Round

Quarter Finals

Semi Finals

Final: Chelsea v Bayern Munich

With several high profiles teams finishing 3rd in their Champions League group, the UEFA Cup suddenly became a much more competitive trophy, especially with 5 Spanish sides entering the 1st KO Round. However, they had all disappeared by the Semis where a German, English, French & Austrian side competed for a space in the Final.

In the end the Final was between Chelsea & Bayern Munich, with the German side scraping a fortunate 1-0 win.

English Premier Division

Premier Division

Season Summary

The effect of the new FM World did not affect the 'Big Four', with Chelsea winning by 5pts from Arsenal and Liverpool in 4th beating the 5th placed team by 7pts.

In the FA and League Cup, it was noticeable that the greyed out teams from the championship took prominence. In the FA Cup only Chelsea & Boro made the Q Finals and only Boro progressed to the Semis where they lost. The Final was between Wolves & Stoke and Wolves edged the Final, winning 2-1aet.

In the League Cup Cardiff beat Boro 2-1 in the Final.

Italy - Serie A

Serie A

As with the Champions League, Roma are the team to beat. They won the league from Inter by 4pts and lost in the Final to Serie B 'grey side' Chievo.

Scotland - Premier League

Premier League

The Old Firm sides were not affected by the new FM World, the 2 sides finishing way clear of the rest of the teams in Scotland, Celtic just edging out Rangers to the title. Rangers did win the Scottish Cup though, whilst Glasgow's other side Partick Thistle won the League Cup, beating Celtic in the Final.

Spain - La Liga

La Liga

The tightest league finish out of those featured. Real Madrid beating Barcelona on goals scored after the 2 sides had 1-1 draws in their 2 league matches and both had the same GD. Real Madrid made it a double beating Zaragoza 3-1 in the Spanish Cup Final.

Valencia, who didn't progress from their Champs League group also performed relatively poorly in the league, finishing 5th but 12pts off 4th place.

Copa Libertadores

KO Tree

Final 1st Leg

Final 2nd Leg

Don't really know too much about South American football, so I'll let the screenshots speak for themselves. The semi finalists were from Mexico, Paraguay, Argentina & Brazil which doesn't seem so strange.

Global Transfer System

Whilst I will also talk about this a bit in the Player Section coming up in part four, the only transfer of any value during the season was for £400k between 2 Chinese clubs:

Cao Weiwei

Over the summer months of 2008 the transfer activity should pick up as European sides look to bolster their side and capture Europe's new talent.

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July 2008 Update (Part Three of Four)

Overview of the FM World

Individuals

July                  2007    2008

No. of players    =  14,724  20,419   Up by 39%

Oldest	players   =   20yr    21yr

Youngest players  =   14yr    14yr



Highest CA	  =   100      98
                    (USA)   (USA)


Highest PA        =   188     196
                   (2 Bra)  (Ger)
                    (Fra)   (Pol)

General FM World

Spread of top 20 players in the world according to current ability:

2007                            2008
USA           -  18             Brazil    -  3
Burkino Faso  -   1             USA       -  3
Canada	      -   1             
                               England   -  2
                               Germany   -  2
                               Italy     -  2

                               Cyprus    -  1
                               France    -  1
                               Niger     -  1
                               Nigeria   -  1
                               Portugal  -  1
                               Serbia    -  1
                               Spain     -  1
                               Tunisia   -  1



Spread of top 20 players in the world according to potential ability:

2007                            2008
Brazil	     -  4               Brazil   -  6
USA	     -  4               
                               France   -  2
France	     -  2               Holland  -  2
Holland	     -  2               Italy    -  2
                               USA      -  2
Austria      -  1               
Benin 	     -  1               Austria  -  1
China	     -  1               China    -  1
Colombia     -  1               England  -  1
Italy 	     -  1               Germany  -  1
Norway	     -  1               Poland   -  1
Russia	     -  1               Tunisia  -  1
Switzerland  -  1



Spread of CA's greater than 150:

July:      2007    2008

150+   =   None    None



Spread of PA's greater than 150:

July:      2007    2008

190+   =     0       3
180+   =    11      17
170+   =    57      85
160+   =    98     148
150+   =   246     357  Up by 45%

Discussion

A year on and the No. of FM players has increased by 39%, but interestingly the No. of players with PA of greater than 150 has gone up by 45%. It will be interesting to see if this continues into the future. Players with a PA of greater than 150 took up 1.67% of the FM population as at July 2007 is now at a figure of 1.75%.

For those of you who are interested as to where the 14yr olds are coming from, the 129 14yr olds in the game at the moment are predominantly from either Brazil, Czech Rep & Germany.

The best player in the World is still Julian Jordan, the American centre mid player - but his CA has dropped by 2pts over the year. The next highest CA players are on 96pts and are a mixture of a Brazilian CM, a DM from Niger and a AMR from Tunisia.

As you can see from the analysis of the best 20 players in terms of CA, the spread of players amongst countries is now much more diverse, with Brazil up there with USA on 3 players.

In terms of PA, Brazil now have 6 of the best 20 players in the world and the better footballing nations in the world tend to have the lions share of potentially the best players in the world in a few years time.

The FM World now has 3 players with a PA of greater than 190, all of whom will be discussed in Part Four of the analysis.

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July 2008 Update (Part Four of Four)

Player Spotlight

Initially best player in the world

Julian Jordan

CA = 98 (down 2)

PA = 179

Julian Jordan (as at July 2007)

The American, despite moving in January 2008 to Colorado Rapids and then going on to win 2 caps for the USA, the midfielder has actually dropped his ability. It will be interesting to see if this improves over the next year or not, now that he is at a better quality of club.

Colorado are currently 2nd in the Western Conference with a third of the season gone.

Future Superstars

Jackson Santos

CA = 74

PA = 188

Jackson Santos (as at July 2007)

The Brazilian has not made a massive impact for Corinthians yet, not playing during 2007 and has only played once so far in the current season. He has won 3 U21 caps but has yet to become part of the senior team setup. If he has a school report (quite possible at his age ;) it would say 'lots of potential and room for improvement').

Corinthians finished 13th in the First Division last season and are 9th in the 2008 season.

Gilson Ferriera

CA = 84

PA = 188

Gilson Ferriera (as at July 2007)

The other Brazilian highlighted last season though has had a completely different season - the striker has already won 3 caps for the full national team and has 3 goals to his name as well! Valued at £1.6m, but with a min fee release clause of £160k this has been capitalised on by foreign team and he has signed a contract to join a team in January 2009.

However, the massive shock about the move is that the £160k move is to South Korean side Jeonbuk!! The Korean side, who finished 5th last season and are 7th this season, have managed to get ahead of clubs from other countries because for some bizarre reason S Korean staff at the club have good knowledge of Brazilian football. This will be eagerly anticipated as surely after a year or so he will be far and away the best player in S Korean football... watch this space.

Cruziero finished 6th in Brazilian First Division last season and are currently 16th, one place above relegation.

Regis Charrier

CA = 75

PA = 188

Regis Charrier (as at July 2007)

The Lens RB has been a regular for the club during the past season. His 21 appearances in the league however were at an average of 5.62, a rating that has meant he has yet to get into the full France team. He has 3 U21 caps and will hope this season will be an improvement for him. Lens finished 9th in Ligue 1 last year.

Igor Sokolovskyi

Retired from football

The Ukrainian retired at the end of the Ukrainian season in Nov 2007, without unfortunately being needed to play a game during that time. He has since moved onto Dinamo Moscow in Russia to become a scout. As a result, Igor will no longer will analysed in future years.

New players to watch

Guido Keller

CA = 80

PA = 196

The 15yr old German striker is currently with Stuttgart. He's been likened to the next Jurgen Klinnsman and the player has the potential to be the best striker in the world in a few years time.

Janusz Mandrysz

CA = 81

PA = 196

The 15yr old Polish central defender is currently without a club and looking for a new one. At the moment know one is interested, but whoever does decide to gamble on him will end up with an absolute gem of a player.

Gary Makin

CA = 72

PA = 192

Everyone from England can go 'hurrah' - England have potentially one of the greatest players in the world. The 15yr old Makin is currently on the books of Chelsea and the central midfielder is being touted as the 'next Glenn Hoddle'.

Experiment News

* From now on I will only focus on players who come through with a PA of 190+.

* If you want to request a league table then please let me know and I will try and get a screenshot for you.

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Top first season WW, very good experiment. I like the presentation and detail that's gone into it.

In terms of the regens, are the countries they emerge from strange at all, or are they native to the teams they play for? By that I mean do Real Madrid mainly have Spanish regens, Bolton English, etc.

KUTGW :thup:

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In terms of the regens, are the countries they emerge from strange at all, or are they native to the teams they play for? By that I mean do Real Madrid mainly have Spanish regens, Bolton English, etc.

Yeah, in general the majority of regens reflect their team's location. There are the odd one or two non-native regens for clubs but not many. Which is quite like the way normal FM generates regens.

Over time as clubs get more affiliates then this may change. :)

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Great updates WW.

Interesting to see that the 'strange' countries appearing in some scouts' knowledge has had an effect with Gilson Ferreria going to South Korea. Maybe we'll see some of his compatriots off to such places as India and Slovakia soon! :)

I guess the number of 14 year olds from Brazil and Czech Republic has something to do with players being able to sign pro deals at 15 there.

One quick query: after reading ~Ian~'s comments, I wondered if there are any unusual dual nationalities (England/Tajikistan or Ukraine/Botswana for example) and if so, how many? Are they more common than they should be?

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Great update :thup:

Will be interesting to see how the future superstars progress over the next few years. With over 100 CA points to gain, they'd generally be needing some great training facilities and a lot of competitive action.

The English league table looks like it could've been lifted from any season in a normal game, fourth getting 70 points (the rough amount people say is needed for the Champions League) is very realistic as well.

Were there any "major" transfers in the EPL? Say, perhaps, the top 4 clubs poaching some players/youngsters with some great potential from other EPL clubs? Also, I take there are now regens coming through the Championship sides? Not exactly sure how regens work with greyed sides.

Anyway kutgw, looking forward to the next update, only 2 more till we hit the World Cup :D

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