Potential ability in FM series

Hello,

I'm a really big fan of FM for many years now. I would like to discuss about ability concept in the game.

As everybody knows every player or staff in the database has a current ability and a potential ability. The current ability may increase or decrease depending on different criteria such as age, happiness in the club... But the potential ability is still constant and I think this is a problem. Why? Because there is no chance a player with a limited potential becomes a world class player. Let me explain: some players such as Didier Drogba for example became very strong pretty late in his career (maybe 25) and this kind of behaviour cannot be reproduced within the FM virtual world especially because of constant potential ability. In my opinion any player could reach 180-200 in ability but obviously only a few of them will make it. On the contrary a world class player may become bad (and loose his football) for example Adriano (Inter's striker). I understand this change in the game may lead to some curiousities (a medium level player can become a star), but is it not the ultimate goal of FM to be close to the reality?

There are also others settings which should not be constant like professionalism (remember Sylvain Wiltord which was poor in professionalism but became much better), injuries...

Last point: I guess the goal of FM creator is to sell many copies which I perfectly understand so I guess when they introduce new features in the game, they want to appeal to most of people. So why there is no different game level such as "simulation", "arcade" in FM (the more difficult is the game the more realistic it is)?

Fabien

Hello,

I'm a really big fan of FM for many years now. I would like to discuss about ability concept in the game.

As everybody knows every player or staff in the database has a current ability and a potential ability. The current ability may increase or decrease depending on different criteria such as age, happiness in the club... But the potential ability is still constant and I think this is a problem. Why? Because there is no chance a player with a limited potential becomes a world class player. Let me explain: some players such as Didier Drogba for example became very strong pretty late in his career (maybe 25) and this kind of behaviour cannot be reproduced within the FM virtual world especially because of constant potential ability. In my opinion any player could reach 180-200 in ability but obviously only a few of them will make it. On the contrary a world class player may become bad (and loose his football) for example Adriano (Inter's striker). I understand this change in the game may lead to some curiousities (a medium level player can become a star), but is it not the ultimate goal of FM to be close to the reality?

There are also others settings which should not be constant like professionalism (remember Sylvain Wiltord which was poor in professionalism but became much better), injuries...

Last point: I guess the goal of FM creator is to sell many copies which I perfectly understand so I guess when they introduce new features in the game, they want to appeal to most of people. So why there is no different game level such as "simulation", "arcade" in FM (the more difficult is the game the more realistic it is)?

Fabien

This argument had been discussed many times.

CA is the level of a player in this very moment, while PA is the cap of ability that a player can achieve.

And no, not everyone can reach 200 PA.

For example i'm a fisically gifted person, but (apart having low mental stat, i'm a very lazy person ) even with the right mentality and the best training i doubt i will reach even 100 PA...

About Adriano, he had lose CA (is not the same player of three years ago) but the PA remain the same, the level he played the first two years in Italy

All of the examples you have given relate to CA and not PA. Regardless of his ability now Adriano always had the potential to be a brilliant player. His ability will now never reach its potential but that doesn't meant the potential is not there.

PA should remain in the game imo, only the way players develop towards their PA should be varied more.

As for difficulty levels they are already implemented in the game. If you want it easier pick a decent team (not neccesarily a top class team as they will have high expectations) set your reputation to ex-international, remove attribute masking and if you need to, download 3rd party scouting tools and proven tactics.

If you want it very hard then holiday for a season and take over a team that has just been promoted into one of the lowest leagues you can find (just like in dafuges challenge). Then follow strict LLM rules and the game will be very, very difficult.

So that's two ends of the difficulty spectrum and you can mix and match what you stick to to make the game as difficult or as easy as you like.

I disagree: how to determine a potential ability of a player ? It is impossible, there is no limit except the maximum (200). Drogba is the perfect example (maybe currently the best player in the world), every FM release the current ability and potential ability of this player was increased. So FM database may be considered realistic for a few months, after that, there is absolutely no surprise (high potential becomes star) in the game which I think is a problem...

We don't live in a static world and constant attributes are (I think) a weakness in the game.

Why do people still fail to grasp such a simple matter of PA and CA.

Everyone on this planet, from a ugandan child to a chinese woman, has completely different potential for anything they ever embark upon.

Someone like Michael Phelps, was born with the potential to be the greatest swimmer in the world, whereas Danny De Vito would have found it a little more difficult to be an olympic swimmer.

Peoples ability will always reach a certain point where it cant progress, this is known as their PEAK.

The problem with this is that no one knows a players true potential until they have reached it and started to decline.

How do we know C.Ronaldo has not already reached his potential? We dont. The best we can do is assume he hasnt due to his age, and the past experience of players progressing until they are usually 26-28.

They way it is at the moment is the only way to represent potential. FM assumes a players potential due to his age, current ability, club and mentality.

Potential is a complete constant. It never changes. It is the ultimate ability a person can be if every single factor in their life works in their favour.

However, the OP does touch on a decent point. About progression being a bit too mapped.

Can a player catch up?

i.e. if he doesn't progress up until 21, can he still reach his full potential later on? A late bloomer?

If so, will he be just as good as he had gone through a more normal attribute growth path?

I disagree: how to determine a potential ability of a player ? It is impossible, there is no limit except the maximum (200). Drogba is the perfect example (maybe currently the best player in the world), every FM release the current ability and potential ability of this player was increased. So FM database may be considered realistic for a few months, after that, there is absolutely no surprise (high potential becomes star) in the game which I think is a problem...

We don't live in a static world and constant attributes are (I think) a weakness in the game.

Without wishing to get sucked into yet another argument on this fixed PA is not the problem. Yes, things change IRL all the time but this is a game modelling real life and so although it needs to be realistic, simply copying real life isn't always the best way to do it. It is much better to go with a fixed PA in order to model real life as that is more suitable for programming IMO. Now that is if it is to be agreed there isn't a fixed PA irl which is also arguable, you can give examples to say there isn't a fixed PA but at the end of the day we all have limits in everything we do. No matter how much I train I will not become Christiano Ronaldo.

The real problem with the game is that there is little variety in the way players develop, that needs to be change so that it produces the result that the OP wants. Players may suddenly become good at a later age, some may be showing lots of potential at 17 but then it goes away etc, in other words make it less predictable, that would be a hard task for SI to accomplish but I feel it is needed and would improve the game dramatically.

Yeh its true we need a bit more variety.

I have never seen a regen burst onto the scene at 18 with a CA of 170+, and then for him to drop down by the time he reaches 22.

In real life, players like messi come along who are world class teenagers, or even rooney. I have NEVER seen this with a regen.

I have to agree with Fabien about the development being too linear. There needs to be more players who hover around the lower/smaller leagues and then get snapped up by top league teams and blossom just like Drogba did at Marseille and even more at Chelsea.

Hopefully the new code that has been written for player development will, occasionally, mimic that.

Perhaps a part of the problem is that the AI uses PA as one of the factors in transfers. So the players with high PA are always snapped up by bigger teams and then progress in the usual linear manner.

But IMO PA has to stay as there needs to be some way to stop the whole footballing world being as good as Drogba, Ronaldo or Fabregas.

I too, am not sure how people think that the PA should go. A play (IRL) cannot under any circumstances improve beyond his potential. It's impossible. People confuse CA with PA.

My idea would be to simply remove PA since it may artificially limit skill improvement. In such case, player progress should be dictated by his personal skills (for example professionalism), position in his club, training (with good coaches), good condition, morale, no severe injury and obviously lucky. If all these parameters are good, why a player would not be to able to improve ? Obviously the starting ability and age will have a big impact (a player with CA = 100 who is 27 years old will have a limited progress).

Also sometimes in the modern football we see a player rises very suddenly his level. I think about Franck Ribery at Marseille. In the FM world it will translate a big CA increase (+30/+40) in a very short of time, I think this is impossible with current FM AI.

Also sometimes in the modern football we see a player rises very suddenly his level. I think about Franck Ribery at Marseille. In the FM world it will translate a big CA increase (+30/+40) in a very short of time, I think this is impossible with current FM AI.

Thats a problem with CA progression not PA.

The way you suggest removing PA, means that anyone could reach 200. That is not how it works. Wenger couldn't just pick any 16 year old off the street and turn him into a world class footballer.

I did an experiment with FM Genie Scout. After 3 years, there are 10 484 young players (below 23 years old). Potentially most of these players may improve their skills since they are still young. However 2621 payers (25%) out of 10484 cannot really improve their level (less than 10 in difference between PA and CA).

If you think that 22 is too old to progress, I tried to decrease the age (less than 21, so 20 and below), and I found 22% of these very young players still cannot improve !

I definitely think this PA really blocks the player improvement, because reaching ability peak at 20 years old is strange and not reallistic.

It would be interesting to see what Drogbas PA was in previous FMs

It would be interesting to see what Drogbas PA was in previous FMs

zero

CA and PA should change for most players for every version of FM

My idea would be to simply remove PA since it may artificially limit skill improvement. In such case, player progress should be dictated by his personal skills (for example professionalism), position in his club, training (with good coaches), good condition, morale, no severe injury and obviously lucky. If all these parameters are good, why a player would not be to able to improve ? Obviously the starting ability and age will have a big impact (a player with CA = 100 who is 27 years old will have a limited progress).

Also sometimes in the modern football we see a player rises very suddenly his level. I think about Franck Ribery at Marseille. In the FM world it will translate a big CA increase (+30/+40) in a very short of time, I think this is impossible with current FM AI.

I disagree with you on this. Nobody would know there is a fixed PA is in the game if you did not try and find it as it is a hidden value which I think reflects real life it is unknown to us how good any player will be in the future. Also no matter how professional, hard working and lucky a player is and how great the training facilities they use are they still have a potential ability. It is just that these factors will determine how likely it is that the player will reach his potential ability.

Nobody would know there is a fixed PA is in the game if you did not try and find it as it is a hidden value which I think reflects real life it is unknown to us how good any player will be in the future. Also no matter how professional, hard working and lucky a player is and how great the training facilities they use are they still have a potential ability. It is just that these factors will determine how likely it is that the player will reach his potential ability.

I agree totally.

The main problem with PA is that it is too easy to see. Even without 3rd party scouting tools, good scouts can see PA almost instantly. I think CA:Age should be a much bigger factor in the scouting of young players.

i agree PA should be affected by certain things. Say Bob plays for East Stirling his PA would be very lucky to be 60. However IRL Bob moved to the older firm the next FM Bob would have a PA much much higher.

OK so not everyone can achieve greatness of 200 bvut say it was to move depending on contrabuting factors such as Coaching, Facilitis, First Team involvement etc/

I think PAs should be left as is, but with greater emphasis on later development. Increases in physical stats might decrease in age, but you can never stop learning. I mean Stuart Peace was a late developer. He was the makeweight in the deal to take him to Forest, and look where he ended up.

i agree PA should be affected by certain things. Say Bob plays for East Stirling his PA would be very lucky to be 60. However IRL Bob moved to the older firm the next FM Bob would have a PA much much higher.

No, no, no, no, no, no, NO.

Whether Bob plays for East Stirling or Celtic his potential will still be the same. All that will change is his ability to reach that potential.

No, no, no, no, no, no, NO.

Whether Bob plays for East Stirling or Celtic his potential will still be the same. All that will change is his ability to reach that potential.

Couldn't agree more

As for the OP, the example can still ring true in the game; Its not Drogba's PA that should change, its just his ability to realise his potential.

My idea on how to fix this:-

1. Keep PA under the hood as it's a necessary control

2. Remove PA from it's in game manifestations so no scout reports containing PA or coach reports containing PA.

Basically it will work like real life where players are judged based on their CA relative to general judgements of where a potentially world class player might be at that age based on the scout's experience (I saw Ryan Giggs when he was 16 and this lad looks just as good if not better type of thing) or relative to their contemporaries (this lad's head and shoulders above any other 16 year old I've seen this year much like the silver ratings currently work) and assumed that given their age they can only get better. Sometimes they do and sometimes they don't.

Throw in a bit more randomness in how CA evolves as well as starting CA even with exposure to the optimal catalysts and you're golden.

A simple example:-

Player A aged 16 with CA 95, Hidden PA 135

gets the same judgement as

Player B aged 16 with CA 95, Hidden PA 185

It will make the scatter gunning technique less viable especially when there are many hidden gems and it would change the nature of the probabilities involved for the user. Admittedly though this would probably annoy many users, myself included

I haven't really thought this through or fleshed it out but I just wanted to write it down while it popped into my head.

Actually the early blooming, then stalling in progress type of development is already present in FM08, as are the "world-class players who are in their teens". I've had both types of regens in my team, the first a wonderkid at 18 who had 145 CA (very unusually high for the age, CA is usually ~100-120 at this age), but whose PA is only slightly over 150.

For the second type, I've had a striker and a keeper who had world-class CA (I think about 175 qualifies you for this tag if other factors like rep are also present) before they hit 20, and who got the tag "world-class striker/keeper" pretty much once they turned 21. (Before that they had the wonderkid label).

The only thing really missing is the sudden late blooming of a player in his mid/late 20s, who had average CA throughout and suddenly develop when you don't expect them to, like Drogba or Luca Toni. This would be a really nice touch to have.

2. Remove PA from it's in game manifestations so no scout reports containing PA or coach reports containing PA.

It would be unrealistic to take it out. People talk about a players potential all the time and I'm sure it wouldn't be uncommon for a scout to comment on it in a report.

It would be unrealistic to take it out. People talk about a players potential all the time and I'm sure it wouldn't be uncommon for a scout to comment on it in a report.

I'm sure they do but what do they base their assessment of potential on? As I said in the paragraph below the part you quoted they base it on current ability and past experience of people at a similar level at a similar age, the same way potential is measured for any field. In FM the judgement is given as 'perceived potential' which includes the known, fixed potential in it's algorithm. What I am saying is use CA in the judgement as it is in real life and introduce high starting CA but low PA players (and all combinations) to make it much more hit and miss.

Then add in some better AI scouting so there is competition and you decrease the likelihood of the user sweeping up every high PA player generated season after season. You could argue that the user who wants a realistic experience should play as such and impose their own restrictions (in game it is possible with many scouts to gather up the 20 highest PA players aged 18 and under without much competition but would that happen in real life?) but that's for another argument.

The usual process

- Watch a player for his given club at a given level

- if he stands out offer him a trial

- while on trial judge how he performs at that higher level

- if he stands out at this higher level then offer him a contract

It's all relative.

In the real world I am guessing it is far more refined (e.g. the kid has pace to burn but his technical skills are a bit lacking, yet his attitude impresses me so in our environment we can get his technical skills up to par and make him into a player) but in FM that level of refinement is left up to the user (although scouts will comment on particularly high attributes). For example my scout tells me an 18 year old is a good League 1 player and has the potential to be a leading Premiership player. I don't just sign him up, I look at his attributes and position and make an estimation of where his attributes might get to based on my experience of developing other players.

Just wanted to clarify what I meant by

Remove PA from it's in game manifestations

I get it now. I thought you were trying to take out scouts commenting on his potential and only commenting on his CA.

It sounds like a good idea

I disagree: how to determine a potential ability of a player ? It is impossible, there is no limit except the maximum (200). Drogba is the perfect example (maybe currently the best player in the world), every FM release the current ability and potential ability of this player was increased. So FM database may be considered realistic for a few months, after that, there is absolutely no surprise (high potential becomes star) in the game which I think is a problem...

We don't live in a static world and constant attributes are (I think) a weakness in the game.

that doesn't mean the concept of a capped PA is wrong.

what that means is that SI didn't workout the PA correctly.

but again, that doesn't mean SI messed up. it just means that it's difficult to tell. which it is. but if people dont use FMM or other products that allow us to see a players PA then we too will find it difficult to tell what a players PA is. so everything evens itself out.

I definitely think this PA really blocks the player improvement, because reaching ability peak at 20 years old is strange and not reallistic.

haven't SI confirmed that this is fixed for FM09?

it doesn't mean that the PA cap is wrong. it means that player progression is wrong.

haven't SI confirmed that this is fixed for FM09?

it doesn't mean that the PA cap is wrong. it means that player progression is wrong.

Agreed.

And yes, SI have said this is something they have worked on.

i think a lot of people see a symptom but completely mis diagnose the cause.

i both agree and disagree... once a player grows older it gets harder for him to achieve his PA. this is a fact. actually it is reflected in the game with lowered CA, as in the example of adriano. so eventually their PAs become unachivable for them, which makes sense... so lowering PAs according to real life performances do not really make sense for older players which were considered to be world class when they were initially introduced into the games. it should not bother us that adriano still has a huge PA because if game does not favor him incredibly he will not reach it. lowering PA drops out of question with that.

as for increasing PA for lowly talented players, i highly doubt that could be sensibly coded into the game. ok, a guy with an initial PA of 120 really reaches that 120 very early in his career, and it feels like he should progress. is it doable? if so, which characters of them would initiate such an increase? would game codes be fair on those figures? do we need it?

game data is updated often, every new game comes up with new and updated set of data. also even transfer update patches carry some updates and corrections upon player data. CAs and PAs are tuned and fine tuned all the time.

To me, we subjectively say a player has good potential if his current set of skills are very good already. To me, this means that there's no real ceiling for potential, and that if there is a potential ability level, it will be a function of current ability.

In other words, the most promising youngsters shouldn't be those with PA 200, but those with very good ability for their age. For example, Dos Santos (good technical skills for his age, and a CA of 140, although that's secondary).

I personally think that putting CA and PA limits is not really a great idea, although I think CA is used to make in-game calculations easy.

There is some value to the Fabien's post. I am all too aware that this topic has been discussed on here before. My understanding is that FM is not likely to change the system any time soon because it works for them. As for what you are suggesting, maybe PA could be determined after a player turns professional, or whatever. I see how you are hoping to develop young players into the best players they can be. But how much can a manager really change a player? The club has world class youth facilities, so there is something you can control. But even at this level managers go after the youngest kids and bribe their parents into letting them join their academies. A lucky few will go on to have a meaningful career, but the vast majority will not. There are even ethical debates condemning this behavior as human trafficking, and so on. So you ask yourself the question again. How much does a club really influence the development of a player? The club is everything really; the players playing career is what allows him to reach his potential or not. But in the world of football it does seem that potential is determined by adolescence and so FM comply to that, and it also simplifies their system of player development. But I wholeheartedly agree with the starter of this thread that most players if still in developmental stage should be able to become decent players in the level they are playing at or a notch higher.

On the other hand, I have some questions I want to ask about PA. Have players ever had a CA comparable to what football greats like Cruijff, Best, Muller, Romario, and so on, would have been given, or have players ever had as much success as those mentioned players? Is it possible within the complex system that is FM AI that there be a new Maradona, or even Pele. And finally, has Lionel Messi's PA been revised for FM 2009 ?

I think PA has to be there in some form, but there are problems with it at the moment.

In terms of "capped PA", I think the problem here comes with the research. Every year researchers will re-evaluate their players PA - a previously promising youngster has a poor season so he loses 10 PA points for the next FM, or a decent player steps his game up a notch or proves himself at a higher level so gets a higher PA. It's not that there isn't some theoretical fixed PA that these players have, it's that it's virtually impossible for the researchers to assign them with any degree of accuracy. The other problem with this is that every single game you start will be the same. There needs to be some variation in PA, if only to account for the falibility of the researchers.

If there was, say, a possibility of a 5, or slightly more, point variation either way when a new game is loaded, it would bring a much bigger challenge to the game. The 19 year old centre back that you always sign for 300k because you know he will be the next Cannavaro could sometimes fail to quite reach the same heights, and the 17 year old you always free at the start because he know he will just fail to make the grade will go on to be a decent player for you. Sometimes Ronaldo will go on to be the best in the world by a mile, other times he won't improve much and Messi will be far superior, others it will to close to call. We can't accurately predict how players will turn out, so setting it in stone in the database is a flaw, imo. This would be similar to the current potential bandings used for some youngsters, but would be applied across the board.

Obviously people could still use in game scouting tools to find out the PAs of these players, but for those who don't want to it would bring a freshness and a realism to each new start. Whether you do it consciously or not you remember which players turn out well and which don't, which youngsters you wished you'd signed and which were a waste of cash. Once you know it is stupid to deliberately avoid using that knowledge. Just a small variation each time would fix that, to some extent. I think all the other problems are CA progression or scouting based.

I don't think there enough or any late bloomers in the game. Players like Van Der Sar, Materazzi, Roger Milla, etc. didn't reach their peak till late in their careers. And countless wonderkids in real life burn out or never reach their potential, so maybe more emphasis needs to be paid to mental attributes in the future.

Guys thanks for your comments but can a player become more successful than Pele ever in FM. And is there such a thing as 200 PA ability unless user edited?

Not sure about FM09 as I haven't played it enough yet, but in 08 players could become just as successful as Pele. There are people in the challenges forum who have had players score over 1000 league and international goals for them.

I've never seen an unedited player with 200pa, but I have seen a fair few generated with 198 or 199pa.

I saw on here someone who had a player with a 200 pa, I think.

Interesting, thanks a lot chopper99.