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Heaven and Hell - An Experiment in the Behavior of Chairmen


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BACKGROUND

Heaven and Hell is an experiment to see what effect, if any, the characteristics of a Club's chairman has on the club's performance and advancement. I have taken 3 clubs from the Blue Square South and replaced them with 3 equal teams named Angels, Devils, and Men. All three clubs are Semi-Professional have Reputation 1000 and Morale 10 and have sugar daddy owners. They all have 1000 cap stadiums with equal attendance figures as well as training and youth setup ratings of 1.

I have removed all staff and players from the three clubs and given them all unique chairmen. The chairman of Angels is God, the chariman of Devils is Satan, and the chairman of Men is Adam. All 3 chairmen have their respective clubs set as "favorite club". God hates both Satan and Devils, while Satan hates God and Angels. Adam has no relationship with anything besides his club, Men.

God has the highest possible ratings for Adaptability, Ambition, Determination, Loyalty, Professionalism, Sportsmanship, and Temperament. He also has 200 reputation and ability. For his chairman ratings - he has 20 for Business, Patience, and Resources, and a 1 for Interference. God also enjoys 200 board confidence and fan confidence (not sure if this matters).

Satan has the opposite ratings of God. His reputation and ability are 1, and he has 1 confidence as well.

Adam has all of ratings exactly between God and Satan (i.e. 10 for most ratings).

QUESTIONS

What ratings, if any, matter for Chairmen of clubs?

How far will the three clubs advance and who will be the most successful?

Will any of the chairmen ever leave their clubs?

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SEASON 2007-2008

Table

Top Players

ANGELS

Media Prediction: 19th

Finish: 11th

God began his reign at Angels by adding Manager Terry Burton to the staff, paying $95k to poach him from Cardiff. He certainly looks like a capable manager for the BSS and was soon complemented by an array of capable staff, including 6 coaches, 4 scouts, and 1 physio.

Burton promptly began adding players to the team in order to compete in the BSS. The new manager had a $20M transfer kitty at his disposal but chose to spend only $19k in total in players, with most arriving on a free after trialling at the club. The most expensive transfer for the Angels in 2007/2008 was Jon Beswetherick, arriving from Salisbury for $6k. The left back featured in 36 games for the Angels but played appallingly, receiving an average rating of 5.81 for the season.

The Angels did in fact happen to add a young star to their team in 17 year old Ryan Winter. The Northern Irish Striker only has a current ability of 19 but his potential ability is an impressive 136! Will he be able to reach the stars on the Angels, or will he move on to greener pastures? A story we'll have to follow in the coming seasons...

DEVILS

Media Prediction: 20th

Finish: 6th

Satan chose the experienced Kevin Summerfield from Plymouth as his head coach. It looks like a good choice given Summerfield's 113 current ability and 137 potential. He has a well-rounded skillset and a good reputation as well. Devils also compiled a large staff, including 6 scouts!

Summerfield was a bit more lax with his spending than the Angel's Burton, but still only spent $69k of Satan's $20.6M transfer budget to bring in his squad. He brought in Ryan Mallon from Gainsborough for $28k (not the best use of funds).

The Devils have a young star in their midst as well with young Michael Vongas. The 21-year old English right back has a fairly mediocre 25 current ability but has a potential of 122. We'll keep an eye on him as well.

MEN

Media Prediction: 13th

Finish: 4th

Men definitely had the best season of the 3 teams under the leadership of Adam, just losing out in the Playoff Final to Dorchester. Adam opted to hire Ian Evans from Wolves and the experienced Welsh manager hired on many more staff members to fill his backroom.

Evans spent freely, plopping down an astounding $219k in the transfer market to build his squad. Of course, his transfer budget was $20M so this was just a drop in the bank for the rich club. $70k of this was spent on experienced keeper Adam Sollit from Gainsborough, who turned out to be a mediocre starter for the team (6.49 avg rating).

QUESTIONS

Why was so little of each club's transfer budget spent?

I think this was a result of the wage budget limiting the manager's spending. While the managers spent varying amounts of money in transfer fees, they were all within 3-5k of their respective wage budgets (generally all club's wage budgets were around $40k per week)

Was there a discernible difference between the club's performances?

Not really. The club with arguably the best chairman (God) actually finished lowest in the table amongst the three clubs, but not much can be gleaned from the first season. I would expect the differences, if they exist, to only occur as time goes on.

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HEAD TO HEAD

Devils enjoyed the best record against the other 2 clubs with the a 3-1-1 record (Devils and Men met in the Setanta Shield as well as the BSS), outscoring their opponents 9-5 in the 5 matches.

Angels finished even with a 2-0-2 record against the other two clubs, while Men were a lackluster 1-1-3, being outscored 7-10.

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FOOTBALLING LANDSCAPE

Footballing Landscape is a short feature that I will do following every season to update everyone on what is happening in all the other football leagues around the world.

The biggest moves in the transfer market both belong to Arsenal, as Adrian Mutu and Zdravko Kuzmanovic both joined the Gunners from Fiorentina for a combined $74.5M. Mutu would certainly prove his worth in the season however, beating Sergio Aguero and Fernando Torres to scoop the World Footballer of the Year award despite some relatively modest stats (47 apps, 12 gls, 9 assists, 6 MOM, 7.34 avg rating)

In UEFA action, Milan beat Chelsea 3-0 behind a hat-trick from Pato to win the UEFA Champion's League. In a dull UEFA Cup Final, Bayern beat Lyon on penalties to take home the trophy.

Chelsea managed to nab the English Premier League title, with Liverpool in second only one point behind and Man United in third only 2 points off. Afonso Alves and Jermain Defoe tied for the lead in goals with 20 each. The major surprisse were Middlesbrough finishing in 6th and Portsmouth being relegated.

In Italy, it was Roma who squeezed their way to the title despite being only 4 points ahead of the team in 5th! No major surprises here save maybe Lazio finishing second and Inter missing out on Champion's League action in 5th.

Barcelona pipped Real Madrid on the last week of the season to win the Spanish Title after Madrid could only manage a draw against last place Murcia. Betis and Alemeria join Murica in the Spanish Second Divison next year.

In financial terms, Barcelona is richest with a $486M worth, with both Chelsea and Arsenal close behind.

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SEASON 2008-2009

Table

Top Players

ANGELS

Media Prediction: 18th

Finish: 2nd, lost in Playoff Final to Sutton Utd

Angels didn't make any significant changes in the coaching structure of the club, choosing only to bring in two additional scouts. Whether this will result in better player quality at the club remains to be seen.

They spent modestly in the transfer market, bringing in some decent BSS players but nobody of great note. It is worth noting that prospect Ryan Winter who we talked about last season has now moved on, to Southport on a free. One wonders if the coaching staff didn't feel like putting in the time to develop him or didn't know the young star that they had.

I am noticing a highly disturbing trend across all three "rich" clubs whereby they are bringing players of reasonable talent on low transfer fees but paying them ridiculous wages. It seems like a particularly stupid brand of management (nobody else will ever want to buy a player who is on $30k wages!!!) so we'll see if this will come back to haunt them. Either way, it seems like a particular failure of the game AI for this to be happening...

It is a bit surprising to me that the media prediction for Angels was so much poorer than that of Devils and Men, especially considering the wealth at their disposal. They did well this season but will be gutted not to win promotion after they were only 2 points off first place. One wonders how long God (who is incredibly patient) will stick with the current manager if these results continue.

DEVILS

Media Prediction: 9th

Finish: 4th, lost in Playoff Semi Final to Sutton Utd

Devils kept their coaching structure the same as well, only bringing in a very good youth coach in Rob Witschge. They brought in many players but hardly anybody of significant talent for the BSS level. Devils more or less snuck into a playoff spot after playing inconsistent football for much of the year. Satan, being the opposite of God, has a patience rating of 1 so I wonder if heads will begin to roll at Devils next year...

MEN

Media Prediction: 7th

Finish: 1st, Promoted!

Congratulations to Men, the first of the three clubs to win promotion! It was a battle between them and Angels for the last few weeks of the season and Men managed to come out on top in the automatic promotion spot.

They did it with several changes in player personnel but hardly any changes in the backroom. No superstars of note in the Men squad; they just happened to be the better of the mediocre teams in BSS.

QUESTIONS

Will Men manage to stay in the Blue Square Premier?

I honestly don't see it happening unless they make some changes in the squad, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility.

Why aren't the managers making better use of their funds?

This is what I find to be the most disturbing fact so far. Each club has $15M+ in transfer funds and $200k+ in wage budget but they all seem content to buy mediocre players and pay them massive wages. If this trend continues it will be a very poor display of management by all clubs.

Which club will fire their manager first?

You would expect it to be Devils as they finished worst and Satan has the least patience. The coach of Men would probably be safe after promotion this year but if they struggle in the BSP next year all bets are off...

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FOOTBALLING LANDSCAPE

The transfer market reeled in 2009 as two promising young strikers switched teams. Sergio Aguero moved from Atletico Madrid to Juventus for a massive $69M while Giuseppe Rossi switched to Chelsea from Villareal for $57M. Oddly, Rossi featured in only 11 games for the Blues that year despite no injuries.

Sevilla lifted the UEFA Champion's League trophy after downing Man Utd on penalties. Inter took home the UEFA cup after defeating Porto 2-1 in extra time.

Chelsea defended their English Premier League title easily, finishing 12 pts ahead of Liverpool in second. The footballing nation was thrown into shock on June 23rd, however, when manchester United sacked Sir Alex Ferguson and replaced him with Steve Coppell. Coppell himself was fired just 6 months later in December to be replaced by Roberto Mancini. In the end, a season of turmoil for Man United who, despite making it to the champion's league final, finished only 6th in the Premier League. Ferguson and Coppell remain unemployed.

In Italy, Milan, won their first Championship in 5 years, just 1 point ahead of Inter. Udinese was surprisingly relegated following a poor season.

In Spain, Barcelona won their second straight La Liga title and Madrid finished in second. Atletico Madrid, following the sale of their star Aguero, fell from 2nd place last year to a disappointing 8th.

The World Footballer of the year award went to Inter's Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who beat out Kolo Toure (Arsenal) and Robinho (R. Madrid) for the award. Arsenal rocketed into first place in the Richest Clubs list with an estimated worth of $753M. Barcelona is close behind with $723M while R. Madrid is further off at $658M. The three clubs outpace everybody else as 4th place Milan are only worth $346M!

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UPDATE

Just finished simming the third season. I will offer a full update next week but suffice to say some bizarre things are starting to happen to these three clubs.

All 3 of them are millions of dollars in debt and Men are actually bankrupt and in receivership! I assume it must be due to the outrageous wages they are paying (Men have a $0 value reserve player making $55k per week!!). All three clubs have wage bills that are now $350k+ PER WEEK. This is $26M in wages annually!! With no income to speak of, these clubs are spending themselves into the ground and seem to have no idea that they may be in very deep trouble.

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I wonder. Is 20 in Patience neccaserily something that should be attributed to God ? I mean, if you have a manager that gets crap results, wouldn't it sometimes be better to just sack him, instead of giving him almost limitless time to build something that may never become anything ? It's conceivable that a 20 Patience chairman can actually be harmful to a club if he refuses to get rid of a manager who keeps losing. 20 Patience would be a good thing if it were universally true that the longer a manager is in charge of a club, the better he gets, and that it's all just a matter of building a foundation for the team first, but that's of course not neccaserily true. Sure, 20 Patience is something you want when he's YOUR chaiman, but in an experiment to see who does best, patience is perhaps an attribute that should be the same for all three chairmen. That way you, in a long term experiment like this, limit the influence of the managers, be they good or bad. Just a thought.

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They won't spend very much of thier transfer budgets whilst in the lowest tiers (2ndDiv-BSN/S) of english football.

Reputation beats Wealth

All the wealth will do is give the clubs slighter better strength in the transfer market, but they will still only attract players who are willing to play in that Division.

my predictions for your experiment

Facilities will remain unchanged at 1/1 until either the 1st or 2nd season in the Championship, at which point they will recieve investment to 20/20

God will make fewer management changes than either Adam/Satan

Satan will make the most management changes

Satan will retire 1st

God will retire last

Adam will achieve the most overall.

None of the clubs will make any real effective use of thier financial advantage

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