I Fear This May Come True!

From another footy management sim website, some very interesting points:

This is the year - that CM overtakes FM, if...

I have been a fan of Football Manager for many years. In fact I have written a team talk guide for FM08 which attracted over 250 replies and countless views on the official FM forum and was translated into Spanish and Polish by FM fans who liked my guide.

I however started to dislike FM, partly because of the poor quality of the initial release of FM08 and partly because of SI's arrogant attitudes towards its customers and towards genuine criticisms as evidenced by the posts on its own forums.

This year, 2008, FM takes a different path as SI focuses on making its first online football game - FMLive. SI will release FMLive in October this year and then FM09 before Christmas. This means that FM09 will be released later than usual and likely later than CM09.

There is no doubt that many FM/CM fans, including myself, do not like the idea of online gaming which is time consuming/wasting and costly (over 70 pounds a year). What SI is planning to do is to release FMLive first and delay the release of FM09, so that fans would get impatient waiting for FM09 and buy FMLive, so that they have something to play with. Once they realise that they do not like FMLive, they will want FM09 more and SI will release FM09 then. This is a strategy to maximise profit.

All sounds good except SI forgot about its competitors, one of which is CM.

My view is that if Eidos can release a high quality CM09 this year in October, it has a high chance of attracting a great number of fans of football management games as more and more of them get tired/unhappy about SI and the FM series.

The release of FMLive is thus a double - edge sword for Eidos: the ordinary view or the view of SI is that Eidos' market share will be reduced due to the release of FMLive; on the other side of the coin, if Eidos could take this as an opportunity to attract the great number of fans who do not like (or can not afford) online football gaming by releasing a high quality CM09, then it will be able to gain a great portion market share of football management games, probably greater than it could in any past years.

However, for the favourable outcome to Eidos to actually happen, there are a few pre-conditions that must be met by Eidos:

1 - CM09 will have a realistic match engines that attempts to best reflect the real life football: I have watched the leaked video of CM09's 3D Match Engine, it looks good. However for hardcore fans to switch to CM09 from FM, the ME can not simply look good on the outside, it must be actually good in its inside. It must produce realistic match results; it must produce realistic game statistics such as shots-on-goals, passing % and player ratings etc and it must reflect tactics changes accurately and promptly after such changes. These will be hard, but these must be done.

2 - CM09 will have a comprehensive database, more comprehensive than ever. Match engine and accurate and complete database are the two key things that make a football management simulation game shine in the long run. SI has been slack on its gameplay developments but it has kept high market shares simply because of its database. Eidos must be able to catch up on that, utlise as many researchers as possible and produce a high quality database that best reflects the real life players and staff. Again this does not happen over 1 night, it takes good planning and strong implementation over a few months and perhaps years to happen.

3 - CM09 will be advertised well - self explanatory. Advertising is essential to get the amount of initial sales up, especially advertising before FM09 is out. After initial sales is increased, words and more words will be spread about the quality of CM09 (assuming it will be good) and more and more people will buy CM09.

Therefore in my view the opportunity is rare, Eidos must have already realised this (they must be thinking what the hell this guy called Wolfsong is doing telling us about marketing opportunities!) and the fate is in Eidos' hands.

Your opinions welcome and you are invited to continue my list of pre-conditions for CM to overtake FM.

Thank you for reading.

This year, 2008, FM takes a different path as SI focuses on making its first online football game - FMLive. SI will release FMLive in October this year and then FM09 before Christmas. This means that FM09 will be released later than usual and likely later than CM09.

stopped reading there... they aint got THAT part of it straight, so why would the rest be right???? been said many times, different dev. teams...

Gee, I wonder who wrote that?

SI always say 'before Xmas' doesn't mean it will be later than usual.

Gee, I wonder who wrote that?

dont need to be a rocket surgeon or a brain scientist to work that out!!!

SI have stated categorically that FML will have no impact on FM09.

I very much doubt that SI would gamble with the sales of a game that sells over 1 million copies each year to try and get people to sign up to FML.

Some people will read whatever they want to read between the lines.

FM Live has no effect on the normal FM.

The competition would do FM no harm.

LOL @ the criticism aimed at the SI guys.

And if people actually believe CM can suddenly produce an FM-beater in the time since their last incarnation, then they need to lay off the mushrooms. As much as competition would be great (and it would be, for both sets of developers and us the consumer), sadly CM is lagging behind like a rocking horse in the Grand National.

I bought the first CM after the split...never again...what pish that game was...

This is the year - that CM overtakes FM, if...

Could happen - I just saw two pigs flying outside my kitchen window!

On a less ridiculous note though, as much as competition is something good to have and probably beneficial to customers, I still think that it's illogical to start a thread here on what could Eidos (a competitive firm) do to make their game better. Why don't you try on their site?

Thank you for quoting my conspiracy theory posted another forum

stopped reading there... they aint got THAT part of it straight, so why would the rest be right???? been said many times, different dev. teams...

Well, the funding for a different FML development team came from the windfall profits of FM. It would have made more sense to use that money to expand and improve the FM team.

Well, the funding for a different FML development team came from the windfall profits of FM. It would have made more sense to use that money to expand and improve the FM team.

Actually you are wrong. As team that is working on FML is infact the same team that was working the NHL Eastside Hockey manager. (Not including the Ov of course...)

More to the point, SI are owned by SEGA, so any new projects are going to be funded by SEGA. So if a new idea comes along to make a new game, it will be funded through a different budget and backed (financially) by the whole business not just the SI team.

What SI is planning to do is to release FMLive first and delay the release of FM09, so that fans would get impatient waiting for FM09 and buy FMLive, so that they have something to play with. Once they realise that they do not like FMLive, they will want FM09 more and SI will release FM09 then. This is a strategy to maximise profit.

Do you believe that the government gives immigrants free cars too?

Its about time that there was some serious competition in football management games, it would go a long way to preventing stagnation in this genre.

Excatly, the competition is going to only do FM good.

If CM is as good as you claim, then FM will have to raise the stakes, giving us a better game to play.

stopped reading there... they aint got THAT part of it straight, so why would the rest be right???? been said many times, different dev. teams...

Yes development teams might be different regarding the UI and the presentation form, but if you sincerely believe that any software development company can afford to develop double code for two games just to keep the teams separate you are seriously wrong. All development teams everywhere try to maximize the reusability of code to reduce time of design/development/testing. So if they have already developed code which has been tested they will most certainly reuse it, and since that code was probably developed for FM than the team that developed it will continue to maintain and develop the code. Hence a certain portion of the FM team is certainly working on some code used by the FML.

That is not necessarily a bad thing since the reusing of code will result in better testing and development of that portion of code so FM will also benefit from this sharing of time and resources.

While the posters conspiracy theory might be true and from the financial perspective it may have some merit, I am of the opinion that SI wants to ensure that this year they don't repeat the FM08 release, which was by reckoning a blunder, where we had to wait for the 8.0.2 patch to have the game playable.

CM has to improve a lot to catch up with FM and is nowhere near the current complexity, realism and detail of FM. But with sufficient funding which EIDOS has, EIDOS could be breathing down SI neck for the CM10/FM10 release, and that will push FM even further.

I dont mean about the idea on FML, I'm taking about FM09 v CM09, the 3D engine looks very impressive...

And the fact is the Eidos/BGS have much more resources at hand than SI and therefore whilst CM08 was utter poop IF they get the DB right and ME right CM09 just might start to take the mantle of best Footy Management game.

SI need to get the new features in FM09 RIGHT and fix there issues from FM08.

Wrong from the start...

I mean, they want to delay FM09 so everyone gives in and buys Live?

What about the fact that they are expecting WAITING LISTS to get into Live, with the main release coming next year? It's more likely that FM09 will come out at the same point FM usually does, maybe a tad late, with it acting as a "while you wait" for people waiting for space in an FMLive world...

And the rest of the article?

Yes. If Eidos manage to release a solid game with a top class match engine and a comprehensive database they can push FM. Anyone can, if they get them two things right.

Then again, if your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle.

I fully agree with you... SI are getting very arrogant, they are forgetting what meade them big: us! We are the ones who buy them games. They just decided to go for online and now they want to sell the ideia. I took a glance at fm live and I just saw a pointless game, bad though, stupid system, only dumbass's that don't attend school or don't do nothing in their lives will have time to play that, plus it is expensive...

Your opinions welcome and you are invited to continue my list of pre-conditions for CM to overtake FM.

Only after you tell us:

1. Which site this has come from, and

2. How the author 'knows' that FM will be out later this year and what evidence (rather than opinion, which from the article is completely wrong) they have for this? Perhaps they can tell us the release date while they're at it?

Entirely speculative, subjective and biased article tbh. Basically nonsense.

youtube video about championship manager 2009 match 3d engine

BGS have far too much work to do to CM to make it better then FM this itteration. Thats not to say that they won't make gains, but a better game? I can't see it. There are just too many completley broken elements that need putting right before it will even compete with FM, the match engine being the worse, which they seem to be coating other the fact that it's rubbish by making it look nice. Even if the game does turn out to be better, I fear that the reputation of CM is damaged beyond repair by four poor releases. It doesn't sell well at all now, and I can't see people jumping ship just because the match engine now looks nice. I hope I'm wrong as competition is always a good thing for the consumer, but I don't think I will be.

That match engine is terrible. They're just passing it, there's next to no dribbling. There needs to be a midway point between the two.

I however started to dislike FM, partly because of the poor quality of the initial release of FM08 and partly because of SI's arrogant attitudes towards its customers and towards genuine criticisms as evidenced by the posts on its own forums.

(...)

There is no doubt that many FM/CM fans, including myself, do not like the idea of online gaming which is time consuming/wasting and costly (over 70 pounds a year). What SI is planning to do is to release FMLive first and delay the release of FM09, so that fans would get impatient waiting for FM09 and buy FMLive, so that they have something to play with. Once they realise that they do not like FMLive, they will want FM09 more and SI will release FM09 then. This is a strategy to maximise profit.

(...)

All sounds good except SI forgot about its competitors, one of which is CM.

These are the 3 main points, and they're all wrong.

FM 08 is a VERY GOOD release. What it isn't is something very different from 07, or, to say the truth, 06. But still a very good release, that had/has specific problems that may/may not affect directly the users.

CM 08 on the other hand, is nothing spectacular. It has many problems not even present on FM. I doubt it is enjoyable on the long term (can't say, because I've only tried it short term, but it was enough).

"SI's attitude towards users" is a lame excuse used by someone who hasn't got the attention they feel they need, but probably not deserve. Does EIDOS have better user support? Doubt it.

FMLive is a different game, and, if much, it's going to help FM move forward. As part of a development team of a software company (and we develop games) I know very well how one game can help the other develop a lot faster, even if the development team is completely different. Besides, they can afford it. And I doubt FM 09 will be very delayed because of FML. It is within the normal release time, according to announcements.

Besides, FML targets a specific type of person, and I doubt that's going to make it a competitor to FM. I mean, there are a lot of online games out there already, and I see no one saying Hattrick or Managerzone hurt FM's profit. The similarities end on the name and the match engine. It is for a completely different type of gamer.

And finally: SI has no competitors. Because CM is still light years behind FM, even with 3D engines or advanced match stats. And very unfortunately that it is so far behind too - because competition is something FM needs.

Then again, if your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle.

LOL

Straight to the point there, actually. CM is nothing compared to FM right now. They need to work out their own game balancing problems (let alone set up a team of good researchers and design a better match engine) before they can release a game that has the quality of FM.

I think we need to wait till at least 3rd Sept before coming to any conclusions.

Hopefully, we'll all have a more better idea of what actually is happening and try and get a better timescale to things.

i would say that CM is making bigger strides forward every year than FM, but it's starting from a lower base point. CM is taking big steps forward, but is still some way behind. FM is already good, it has the head start in that regard, and only seemingly taking cosmetic and incremental baby steps forward (can't blame them - don't fix what isn't broke. just tweak it!). maybe the Che thing suggests a desire by SI to be "revolutionary", but i suspect SI's opinion of what that entails might just differ to what certain others might...

i can see a point where CM is going to be at a FM level (and that really would be an interesting time for anyone who simply wants to play a good football management sim, rather than indulging in a pointlessly tribal brand loyalty exercise), but it's a good couple of years off yet, at least.

Better competition would be a good thing.

Can't really see much in that CM 09 video, impossible to say at the moment how good and how realistic it is.

FM Live uses the same match engine, so all the extra testing for it has helped FM.

As said, SI always say the game is out 'before Christmas', until the announce a release date.

Only after you tell us:

1. Which site this has come from, and

2. How the author 'knows' that FM will be out later this year and what evidence (rather than opinion, which from the article is completely wrong) they have for this? Perhaps they can tell us the release date while they're at it?

Its from the CM site, the author of it says its his work earlier in this thread.

WoIfsong Re: I Fear This May Come True!

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Thank you for quoting my conspiracy theory posted another forum

So *thats* why I started the FML project a few years ago, as a (not so) cunning plan to maximize profit for FM09. Ahhhh right! There was me thinking it was all down to the love of games and the desire to try something new.

Butlers don't pay for themselves, do they?

Finally, in terms of the competition, we don't comment on what others are up to as we'd much prefer to focus on our own work, but, you know, good luck to anyone out there putting in the hours and the passion to try and make a great game, because they're probably similar to us!

Only with less jaccuzzis, butlers and yachts?

By the way they were not my comments or my opinions that I originally posted, just a topic I read on the CM website that I wanted SI gamers to respond to.

I in now way think that FM09 will be less of a game OR delayed due to FML, in fact both being developed by SI will mean a really good ME!

But what I do agree with and what the poster in the CM topic says is that as FM05 and CM05 evolve to FM08 and CM08 the line between them is getting smaller due to bigger resources at BGS with Eidos behind them.

IF FM09 comes out with MAJOR bugs in it that were caught by the internal testers but are fixed in a patch that is released in a day or two of release will certainly cause major forum anger like there was here last year when FM08 was released.

We need SI to fix the issues from FM08 and to make sure that the new features in FM09 do not have any major bugs, I expect bugs, that cant be helped but SI gamers cannot have what happened last year.

CM08 had bugs too but nothing major and CM09 with a 3D engine (still yet to be proved as anywhere near as good as SI's ME) will attract a lot of FM Gamers.

I fear this year with the releases of CM09 and FM09 will be make or break for SI in terms of whether gamers will actually prefer CM09.

I played CM08 for the whole of 2 minutes whilst I have a great career game in FM08 but I can see the line getting smaller and smaller between them and can see the tide turning for SI so I am hoping and praying that they get FM09 right from the start...

Seriously, I think CM may come very close in sales compared with FM in years to come. Never think it is impossible. In the past, winning eleven was the best soccer game(not counting managerial games). However, sales of FIFA games have increased over the years, because EA have been trying to improve the game to be better each year. This could be the scenario for CM and FM years later. Some FM fans may say that CM is a lousy game to play, but if that is the case, CM have a lot of room to improve. FM, on the other hand, is already a great game and can only improve in features. Some FM gamers (not me) have said that buying FM every year is like buying the same game every year, except with data updates and small changes. So my opinion is that it is better for FM to not underestimate CM, as in years to come, CM may overtake FM, but it is just not this year!

Btw, I am a FM fan and currently hate CM!!!

IF FM09 comes out with MAJOR bugs in it that were caught by the internal testers but are fixed in a patch that is released in a day or two of release will certainly cause major forum anger like there was here last year when FM08 was released.

I am hoping and praying that they get FM09 right from the start...

Since you've 'broken the ice' on prognosticating, let me do the same. I'll save you the suspense

If the game needs a patch, some people will be upset and whinge and moan. If it doesn't need a patch some people will whinge and moan that it does need a patch.

And FM09 will sell just as well, and will be patched up and all will be well.

And my prediction. I'm really going out on a limb here! FM09 will get a patch.

By the way they were not my comments or my opinions that I originally posted, just a topic I read on the CM website that I wanted SI gamers to respond to.

How can we respond, other than to say that the writer is just as in the dark as us about the next version of FM, but that we haven't extrapolated a conspiracy theory out of the lack of knowledge and published it as fact?

Except that we know about the space aliens that beam down to score last minute winners if you choose to play as Queen of the South but are, in fact, Northern. And a man.

Shhhh...that's meant to be a surprise..!

Can't believe you've leaked our newest feature, wwfan...:/

Btw, I am a FM fan and currently hate CM!!!

Hate is a strong word. I really don't see the benefit to anyone in having this "You are with CM or you're with FM" vibe which seems to have sprung up.

Personally I want CM to be a very good offering this year. The better it is, the better the competition will be and the better the product we can expect (from both Eidos and Sega) next year.

Doing back to topic: I think there's probably a reason that the original poster of that article didn't post it in here himself. The audience wasn't supposed to be this forum. We've picked up on the more "made-up" things in the post and huffed and puffed till our house has blown down.

Looking at it again, its a post trying to give an opinion on how CM needs to improve to match up to the SI offering, and it's probably right in areas. (I completely disagree with advertising being the key to gaining market share. You can advertise all you like, but if the game is pap...)

Except that we know about the space aliens that beam down to score last minute winners if you choose to play as Queen of the South but are, in fact, Northern. And a man.

In my views I think that SI get anger thrown there way because we as the consumer feel like the company don't care about us. Let me give you an example of what I mean.

Ok so a few years back maybe even more recent then that EA lost a massive piece of there shareholders due to reasons unknown to me but I like to think that it was cause they usually left them in the dark regarding info on new titles and etc. Recently with the pending release of what seems to be a godly game in the making(Fifa 09) they seem to be doing it the right way which is listening to there community rather then thinking they know best what we want. They have been very open with blogs and updates on what is going to be in the game. Also which was quite interesting is that when videos were being leaked they didn't care cause they knew that would create excitement around the upcoming title(Good marketing).

Now I in no way am saying that this game is going to be a perfect 10 cause I can already see flaws that were in 08 such as lighting being far to dim and possibly there ball physics aren't as good as advertised.

Even though there are flaws I don't care because EA have made me feel like I know I can count on them for a solution due to the approach they seem to have adopted which is I think that if I go onto to there main forums and create a thread talking of something I think may need fixing, I feel that if I can get others to agree that that seems to be a valid issue EA will listen and take a look at it due to them already correcting things the community has been talking about.

How does this apply to SI. Well for months now we have been left in the dark. With no answers on what is being fixed or looked at. I don't feel like SI care about me or this community because of there lack of interaction whether or not they come on and say we are looking into it. I would like to hear a little bit about what ideas are floating around. Or maybe saying something like that is a known issue to us and we will be looking to correct in the upcoming release. I want to be clear when I say that I don't want to hear about new features such as cutting edge stuff that is going to be new to the FM series this upcoming release. I think that if SI could have come out a month ago and said that they were looking at X,Y,and Z and things would be different in FM 09 I think that would have gone a long way with the community. People find it arrogant or upsetting when they may not know if an issue such as for me REGENS is being looked at. Other people have talked about interaction and transfers not being what they should be and I agree. I don't really understand why SI couldn't have posted a little tid bit about what they were looking at in regard to existing bugs things that just seemed out of whack. I think that that might have quelled the crowd for the mean time.

Again I repeat I have no interest in knowing what the new features are, I just want to know as I think many people do what you intend to do about features that were instituted last year and had some problems.

I love SI and FM and I don't think there will be a more in depth and more fun management simulation in the next few years besides FM. Saying that doesn't mean that SI should not tell us a little about what there intending to do about bugs and things that weren't totally up to par in the last version. EA understood that FIFA 08 wasn't great. So they decided to take a different approach with there fanbase and I feel so far it has been very, very positive. I guess I don't understand why that approach can't be replicated on these forums. Again I'm not talking about releasing any info on new features that are exclusive and new to FM 09. Im talking about existing things that were in FM08 and earlier versions. A simple "yes we will be making adjustments to that in the upcoming release, hang tight for more info" would have made me at least and I have to think many more sleep easier knowing that SI took those issues to heart. Haven't heard that at all. Please if there is a thread somewhere with that info could you link it.

Now I understand that SI are busy and they may not be able to really spend time here and talk. I don't want to get into a heated debate with Miles or Ter. I just want a simple one sentence answer. Yes that is being looked at and we will be making adjustments this upcoming game. I have heard "we are looking into it", but that does nothing for me cause there isn't a solid answer that goes with that. I have to hope that we as a whole have been listened too cause I mean I would hate to think that SI are really that out of touch with this fanbase.

Thank you.

Of course, one reason for the above might be that the changes are so revolutionary that it would be irrelevant to comment on which FM08 bugs will be fixed?

Such as the introduction of space aliens.

^ Seriously though people try to be serious and the mods are giving SI a bad name by mocking me and others who have valid concerns. Space Alien ********. Seriously. I mean I don't get this kind of treatment on the FIFA boards or any other game that I play. Well maybe one but its a mod so I don't consider it a real company. Just disgraceful.

Shush, wwfan, surely you're not supposed to mention the aliens

Can't believe you've leaked our newest feature, wwfan...:/

tsk not got a thing on Grand Prix Racing Onlines play to give paying customers a rocket launcher fitted to their cars

I seriously don't understand how can somebody complain at lack of communication when SI staff comes to comment threads like this. I'd be thrilled if there was some info on FM 2009, but finding out some thing month sooner or later means very little to me, because I can play the game only when it comes out.