Finding FMH's best team

Introduction:

After reading Rafa’s best clubs article it got me thinking. While statistically Barcelona may be the best team in the game is this shown in FMH? Of course the only way to check this is through simulations so I simulated five 2011/12 seasons analysing the top 4 UEFA coefficient leagues (physical restrictions meant I couldn’t do more) – Premier League, Liga BBVA, Bundesliga and Serie A and in order to minimise the amount of teams from 78 to more of a manageable number I factored in Europe’s biggest competition – the Champions League, making my list a top 15.

Statistics:

So now I have my 15 clubs that qualified for the Champions League in 2011/12 I needed to start my simulations and jot down information. The results I recorded were league position, points, goals for, goals against and the most complicated of them all – Champions League place (7 being the winners, 6 runners up, 5 semi final knockout etc. All the way down to 1 in which is play-off knockout). Along with this I factored in the UEFA Coefficient in order to stop the likes of Udinese being above Arsenal if they both finished on the same statistics.

After finishing each season I rated each team on the above in order to find the best in that season, needless to say this sprang out several surprises each season showing form variation however it is worth mentioning trends were also established during cross-comparisons.

In order to analyse though I decided that for article length reasons and the most accurate method is to pull out averages of the five seasons for all sections including goals scored and ratings.

Looking in the league the most things you often look at are the points and position, normally this dictates how well a team has performed. Obviously this isn’t the only thing but shows that on average many things – Udinese struggle to recapture their Champions League spot and sink to 10th, where as Barcelona win the league easily. Perhaps the most interesting is the openness in all league with no league managing to have an average of the save Champions League qualifiers showing the herd of chasers are as good or sometimes even better on average than some teams in the 2011/12 Champions League.

Then I looked at the points gotten and worked out an average of how many points were achieved on average in each game. While this providing interesting statistics it was when I did the same for goals scored and conceded that I found most interesting results.

As demonstrated from the graph the most teams who succeeded (Chelsea – average position 2nd, Barcelona – average position 1st, Inter Milan – average position 2nd) also got more points per game than they did goals showing it isn’t about how many are scored but how good defence is with the 3 examples used also in the top 5 of the least goals conceded per game average. While I say this they also proved to be the most scorers in which they flaunt an all round game, making consistency all over the pitch key to consistency over five seasons.

The last thing to look at is the Champions League progression of each team and it throws up a few interesting questions – Why has Manchester United struggled in the league but reached on average the semi finals? Is form in the Champions League better than the league in deciding the best team?

I will answer the latter saying they both contribute to it and leave you to draw your own conclusions from the graph however yet again it shows Barcelona’s dominance but also the fact England are the superior division overall in the Champions League whilst Italy and Germany throw up consistent teams but can never take the step up to rival England and Spain’s elite.

Results:

Please remember this is from my games only and results can vary depending on a lot of things.

Now if you want to play as one of these teams then an easy game would be Barcelona or Chelsea while Inter Milan and Bayern Munich are the best chance of breaking the English/Spanish dominance. The hardest two teams whose league form never recaptures last season’s would be Udinese or Villarreal with Udinese being the easier of the two managing to progress to the group stage more often than not (also won the cup once!) While Villarreal are doomed to stay in the play offs making them the hardest of teams despite the slightly better form in a better league.

Finally relating it back to Rafa’s article the answer is yes and no. Barcelona did as they were predicted too and Chelsea/Manchester United managed to achieve a better result, yet Napoli and Villarreal struggled to capture the form they were meant to.

It shows that FMH uses more than average ability and reputation to dictate results and form and in some cases the result can be swayed be quite a margin with Manchester City predicted to finish 5th yet their “real value” left them 9th.

@FMHVibe

Thanks Marc. That's why I repeated it several times as despite Udinese doing the impossible in one they still ended up 2nd from bottom.