FM13 idea: tactical trends

Here is a list of ideas of mine about possible improvements to the AI, and the general balance of the in-game football world regarding tactics. Basically, I'd like to see a realistic simulation of how formations and tactical ideas spread among managers, clubs, nations, around the whole world of football. And while this may seem overly ambitious, I believe it's entirely possible to model through a pack of possible features which I'm going to call "tactical trends".

The basic foundations

a) Managers already have in the editor things like how deep they like their defensive line, how narrow/wide they like their tactics, etc. All are already in-game but are not displayed in their profiles. Display it.

b) Let's add favourite and disliked attributes for managers. Guardiola likes small, intelligent, quick, technical players. So that would translate into favourite attributes: Decisions, Pace, Technique; disliked attribute: Jumping. Conversely, Tony Pullis may like Strength and Jumping above everything. Alex Ferguson may want Determination in all his players. I'm just tired of seeing managers sign players that don't fit their mould at all just because they have high CA/PA. I've seen Chris Wood signing for Barça. This feature should help prevent this sort of issue as long as it's taken into consideration when they buy players.

c) Related to b). Have favoured preferred moves. Ie, someone like Guardiola will be more likely to sign players that like to play one-twos, and will be likely to try to teach that preferred move to his players.

d) Expanding on the previous two ideas, one that could affect the human managers as well. You could instruct your youth academy to search for players and develop players with the traits that you want: attributes and preferred moves.

e) Related to a). Like managers, clubs already have in-editor their preferred style of play, ex. Barcelona fans will prefer attacking play and a 4-3-3 system, italian clubs may prefer defensive, counter-attacking play. First, display it. Second, have them more likely to hire managers that fit their traditional ideals. Otto Rehaggel could've won the Euros another 2 times for Greece and he'd never be considered for the Barça job, because he's the total anti-thesis of their football. If somehow he got the job, he'd have a very hard time conquering the fans' confidence.

Turning the static basics into dynamism - tactical trends

f) Preferred styles of play don't stay static throughout the years. Before Rinus Michel, Barcelona had no connection to the dutch 4-3-3. The success of Helenio Herrera's catenaccio instilled a defensiveness in italian football that was not as deep before him. Now how to model this in FM? Let's say Rehaggel does get the Barça job, and wins everything playing a long-ball ultra-defensive 5-4-1. Would it erase a tradition of 40 years of attacking football? No. But it'd make the fans progressively more receptive to defensiveness, as he kept on winning things. Whereas in a smaller club, if a certain manager suddenly wins an unprecedented major trophy, his style of play may have a huge influence for the future of the club.

g) Now, club preferences aren't the only thing that's not static in real life. Managerial ideas don't stay static. Truly great managers can see their own flaws and adapt. Ferguson at a point decided to abandon the 4-4-2 in Europe. Mourinho has used different tactics in different teams. I want top managers in FM to be able to change their favourite tactics and try different things, if what they are doing doesn't work for a long period of time.

h) Another way of adapting is mimicking success. Luis Enrique trying to use the Barcelona system at Roma? 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-2-3 spreading through Europe so quickly they're becoming the new standard tactics, like 4-4-2 used to be? There are countless examples of this. I want it to happen in FM too. First, have a news item at the end of each major competition (euro/world cup/champions league/national league) reviewing the tactical trends of the year and the most successful trends. Adaptable managers with a history of recent failure will be tempted to follow these trends. Likewise, recently graduated regen managers, and players who have just become managers, will be heavily influenced by them.

i) Tactical trends should be either national, continental or international - depending on which competitions are analysed. Smarter managers will be influenced the whole picture, while more limited managers will stick to traditionalist ideas or may only be affected by national trends. Or maybe great managers should consider the most trends that fit the level of competition they're facing. It may not make much sense to mimic Barcelona with lower-league players that have no technique. Maybe someone managing an underdog in his league will be inspired by the tactical system of a minnow club that overachieved remarkably.

j) Tactical trends should not be limited simply by formation and attacking/defensiveness. Consider every factor available on club and manager editor profiles. Depth of defensive line, width/narrowness, pressing, zonal/man marking, creative freedom, etc. Favourite attributes and favourite preferred moves may trend too.

k) DO NOT overdo this tactical trends idea. I want a dynamic world of football, not a world where everyone converges to one formation, one style of play after a few seasons. There should always be managers willing to think out of the box and follow their own path. And the odd chairmen willing to sign managers that follow a different path from the club's traditional ideas, particularly when the club's recent history has been made of failure. A good balance between the trend-followers, the traditionalists, and the pioneers is key to a healthy dynamic football world.

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I believe that these ideas are not horribly complicated to put in-game. It would take quite a large bit of development, but certainly not as much as the adding leagues feature they came up with for FM2012! And it'd be great for the immersion of the game and the competitiveness of it. Imagine dominating a league, then suddenly a few managers try to figure out your system and copy parts of it (or your entire tactic) - while other of your rivals start hiring foreign managers with radically different ideas in order to cut loose with their failures versus your team. It'd be fun. Realistic. Dynamic.

Perhaps "tactical trends" could even be expanded into "management trends" in further developments. As in, transfer policy trends. Do your success comes from only buying youngsters? Someone else will try it too. Is it your desperation to get world class scouts above everything else? There'll be more competition for signing them.

Thoughts?

Can't believe this has not received acclaim yet. This is a fantastic idea, and if I read this in an FM12 blog I would be over the moon. Definite thumbs up from me. This is one of the furthest ideas of it's kind there have been suggestions along these lines before but none this comprehensive.

SI Have a look on this please!

Awesome idea you have there. Will be thrilled if these were added to the game. Every single one of them from a) to k)

Bloody hell yes! Great idea. Si look at this!

I don't see why would anyone NOT like this idea, considering it is implemented properly

I've wanted something like this for a long time. I imagine it would be difficult to implement (re: dynamic league reputation) but it would so, so worth it.

Here's how I see it:

a) Slightly out of date to reference static d-line and width now the TC concepts are driving the AI. Not a bad idea to display more about manager's playing style though.

b) I believe this model has been worked on for a number of years already and should become increasingly sophisticated.

c) Nice idea and wouldn't be difficult as it would be research and database driven.

d) See c

e) Already in the game except not displayed.

f) Not sure how relevant this is as it would rarely happen at clubs big enough to 'own' a style. When it did, the manager was sacked even after being successful (Capello at Madrid), so it is unlikely success will override philosophy long-term enough to influence it. I think it would be better if clubs just hired managers that fitted their philosophy as in e.

g) Extremely difficult to implement as it is research and database driven and thus inflexible.

h) Extremely difficult to implement as it is research and database driven and thus inflexible.

i) Extremely difficult to implement as it is research and database driven and thus inflexible.

j) See g, h and i. I could see some possibility in trending player roles. However, given the overriding trend in world football is to play deeper, and arguably has always been so, it is unlikely that suddenly everyone starts using advanced playmakers in highly aggressive tactics. I think there is a logical limit to how this might work.

k) If it were done, balance would be the main problem. If it is shifted too far one way, everybody would start playing the same way. If too little, it would not be noticeable and would have been a waste of coding time. You'd also have the problem of the AI not being able to pioneer a tactic. Further, if the AI coped a human tactic that was exploiting the ME, the game world would be totally compromised.

I really like the ideas, but I just do not think they are as easy as you think they would be to implement. I think some of your ideas would take some coding. But I think A-C are hugely possible and would make the game so much better.

Great post

f) Preferred styles of play don't stay static throughout the years. Before Rinus Michel, Barcelona had no connection to the dutch 4-3-3. The success of Helenio Herrera's catenaccio instilled a defensiveness in italian football that was not as deep before him. Now how to model this in FM? Let's say Rehaggel does get the Barça job, and wins everything playing a long-ball ultra-defensive 5-4-1. Would it erase a tradition of 40 years of attacking football? No. But it'd make the fans progressively more receptive to defensiveness, as he kept on winning things. Whereas in a smaller club, if a certain manager suddenly wins an unprecedented major trophy, his style of play may have a huge influence for the future of the club.

Nice ideas.

The bit in bold is the most interesting to me. In my save I got the chance to manage Barca, they still had a good fair few of the current side (all in their 30s ex Messi). Anyway I basically turned them into a Spanish version of Stoke. I brought in a couple of solid centre backs and 6' 9" striker. And basically played a direct/long ball game and relied heavily on set pieces.

I started off sluggishly and I thought to myself if this was happening in real life I would have been lynched. Even when I started to win games/trophies I still though that the fans still probably wouldnt take to me due to the 'brand' of football I was producing.

This sort of dynamism though is obviously massively difficult to realise as after all the entire game is just a series of numbers and if/or/and statements.

I really like the ideas, but I just do not think they are as easy as you think they would be to implement. I think some of your ideas would take some coding. But I think A-C are hugely possible and would make the game so much better.

Great post

I may have gotten a tad carried away, yes. It's not easy to code this, it involves a lot of subtle processing and calculating that needs to be weighted carefully. The whole concept involves a lot of different features (see how I divided it in about 10 different things). Hence, lots and lots and lots of man-hours.

It's just that.. we've seen some insanely difficult to code features being turned into reality in recent years. Adding and editing competitions with the editor. Dynamic league reputation. Adding and removing leagues mid-game. All seemed impossible features before actually being announced. This would be along those lines. It may have been utopic to suggest this a few years ago, it seems realistic to me now.

Here's how I see it:

a) Slightly out of date to reference static d-line and width now the TC concepts are driving the AI. Not a bad idea to display more about manager's playing style though.

My mistake.. trends would be based on TC concepts rather than slider concepts then.

b) I believe this model has been worked on for a number of years already and should become increasingly sophisticated.

I had no idea. I suppose then it's not working (Chris Wood for Barça?) and there's no feedback given to the user. Having a manager profile say "I WANT THIS ATTRIBUTE IN MY PLAYERS" would make for a pretty obvious, effective feedback. As long as there's a minimum of logic behind it and future regen managers who like a long ball style and lots of crosses don't hate jumping.

c) Nice idea and wouldn't be difficult as it would be research and database driven.

d) See c

Tks.

e) Already in the game except not displayed.

Again I had no idea because there's no feedback. A simple sentence in the manager arrival news item would suffice. "We hired this guy because his entertaining branch of football fits the ideals of our club".

f) Not sure how relevant this is as it would rarely happen at clubs big enough to 'own' a style. When it did, the manager was sacked even after being successful (Capello at Madrid), so it is unlikely success will override philosophy long-term enough to influence it. I think it would be better if clubs just hired managers that fitted their philosophy as in e.

Capello at Madrid is an extreme example. I agree that in very big clubs with a deep tradition your tactical influence would be very small or irrelevant. On the other hand if anyone won a Champions League with a polish club playing a flamboyant tiki-taka style that would be a huge influence for the club and for polish football. Modelling this would be realistic.

g) Extremely difficult to implement as it is research and database driven and thus inflexible.

h) Extremely difficult to implement as it is research and database driven and thus inflexible.

i) Extremely difficult to implement as it is research and database driven and thus inflexible.

I don't really get your point. It's difficult, yes. It would need a much better tactical choices recognition model (ie, i'm sick of having the game tell me i'm picking a certain formation when i'm using something else) and a clever, carefully crafted model on top of that, for how the trends should spread. But I don't understand why something research/database driven can't be flexible. By that logic, league reputation can't change because it's set in the database. Player attributes can't change because they're set in the database. The whole point of this thread is to extend these tactical things to become flexible.

j) See g, h and i. I could see some possibility in trending player roles. However, given the overriding trend in world football is to play deeper, and arguably has always been so, it is unlikely that suddenly everyone starts using advanced playmakers in highly aggressive tactics. I think there is a logical limit to how this might work.

I don't expect the game to be clairvoyant and predict a realistic future for tactical evolution. The fun part of this idea is that it should balance itself. If some AI manager tries something illogical which doesn't get him success, it won't trend.

And I don't agree there's ALWAYS been a tendency to play deeper. Mid-80s teams played with very high offside traps, compressing the pitch into a ridiculously short band in the middle of the pitch. In recent years, sure. It was obvious in the last world cup. But there's still teams that break the mould and are successful. Barcelona don't play a deep defensive line.

k) If it were done, balance would be the main problem. If it is shifted too far one way, everybody would start playing the same way. If too little, it would not be noticeable and would have been a waste of coding time. You'd also have the problem of the AI not being able to pioneer a tactic. Further, if the AI coped a human tactic that was exploiting the ME, the game world would be totally compromised.

Balance is always the main problem with most new features SI introduce. In the first version it comes out, it's always over the top, screaming "LOOK AT ME I'M A NEW FEATURE". And it's packed with bugs. A few iterations later, it works properly and is toned down to a realistic level.

I don't expect the AI to pioneer strange things, to come up with a brand new formation never used before in the history of football. Just have them try random different formations and settings if what they're doing isn't working.

I don't see a problem with the AI copying tactical exploits. If you're using a tactical exploit, you're already compromising the game world. Why should the AI be disadvantaged against you? A few years back all the regens were midgets and I had huge success playing the rare tall strikers and crossing the ball into them. If I had got jumping trending among the AI managers, it'd be a tad harder to succeed. Besides, if the AI works with the tactical creator then they're not going to copy my secret exploiting weapon I figured out tweaking the sliders.

Tactical trends also have the advantage of helping SI figure out if their match engine is biased. If after an 100 years holiday save everyone plays 3-4-3 it's probably a sign that the formation is overpowered.

I like this idea, alot.

Nice stuff, Noikeee!!!!! It'd be really great if this stuff could get implemented for fm13

It is a nice idea but would be impossible to code, in effect what you are asking for is AI that is too advanced for FM.

I don't really get your point. It's difficult, yes. It would need a much better tactical choices recognition model (ie, i'm sick of having the game tell me i'm picking a certain formation when i'm using something else) and a clever, carefully crafted model on top of that, for how the trends should spread. But I don't understand why something research/database driven can't be flexible. By that logic, league reputation can't change because it's set in the database. Player attributes can't change because they're set in the database. The whole point of this thread is to extend these tactical things to become flexible.

It would be possible, but the work involved would be horrendous. Years and years of it. Just to get the TC up to speed (which is the first step as the AI managers access it for their tactical ideas) would probably take 18-24 months. You'd then have to plug every concept into the databases and ensure the research teams fully understand them. Add in a year to collect data and you'd still have to program learning and adaptive AI to get things to trend, which, I believe, would be the most difficult task of all.

I don't expect the game to be clairvoyant and predict a realistic future for tactical evolution. The fun part of this idea is that it should balance itself. If some AI manager tries something illogical which doesn't get him success, it won't trend.

It would still require creative thinking AI, which is a fair way off. The only way it could work is to ensure every football concept throughout history was in the data and then have the AI randomly read from it. If one tactic became successful, it could then trend. Just a huge task.

And I don't agree there's ALWAYS been a tendency to play deeper. Mid-80s teams played with very high offside traps, compressing the pitch into a ridiculously short band in the middle of the pitch. In recent years, sure. It was obvious in the last world cup. But there's still teams that break the mould and are successful. Barcelona don't play a deep defensive line.

Sorry, I was unclear. By playing deeper I meant in the number of players operating in deeper areas, not defensive lines. Hence, 4 man defences and 5 man midfields are now the norm, whereas in the 80s 4-4-2 ruled, in the 60s-70s 4-2-4s were commonplace. In the 50s, England were always recorded as playing a 2-3-5. One prediction is that the 4-6-0 will be the next trend. Arguably, with Messi dropping so deep at Barca, it already is. There are exceptions, cultural and idiosyncratic, but that is the general trend.

Balance is always the main problem with most new features SI introduce. In the first version it comes out, it's always over the top, screaming "LOOK AT ME I'M A NEW FEATURE". And it's packed with bugs. A few iterations later, it works properly and is toned down to a realistic level.

I don't expect the AI to pioneer strange things, to come up with a brand new formation never used before in the history of football. Just have them try random different formations and settings if what they're doing isn't working.

But, all the above would have to be done first prior to the balancing exercise. That would be another 2-3 years worth of fine tuning.

I don't see a problem with the AI copying tactical exploits. If you're using a tactical exploit, you're already compromising the game world. Why should the AI be disadvantaged against you? A few years back all the regens were midgets and I had huge success playing the rare tall strikers and crossing the ball into them. If I had got jumping trending among the AI managers, it'd be a tad harder to succeed. Besides, if the AI works with the tactical creator then they're not going to copy my secret exploiting weapon I figured out tweaking the sliders.

Given the amount of work it would take to introduce tactical trends, I would imagine SI coders would have an issue if all their hard work on coding tactical trend was undone by all teams adopting the same exploiting tactic a few years into the game. Unless the ME is rock solid, then this will always be a danger.

Tactical trends also have the advantage of helping SI figure out if their match engine is biased. If after an 100 years holiday save everyone plays 3-4-3 it's probably a sign that the formation is overpowered.

Again, the workload involved is crazy. Firstly, you have to run a hundred year test. If you then discover one tactic has trended across the world, you need to discover why. You then have to fix what might be the cause and run the test again to see if you are right. These fixes knock onto the 4-2-4 dominating, so you repeat the whole process. Ultimately, the game cannot be released until you are sure no tactic is overpowered and won't trend so much to make every match the same.

I'm not saying I don't like your ideas, only pointing out the practical implications. I don't think you have any concept of how much work this would be.

I think you're talking about something more advanced than what I'm proposing. Or I'm underestimating the way the game currently works and how it uses the tactics creator. What I'm proposing is actually a fairly simple idea. I don't get why on earth would you need a huge database of tactical systems.

I assume the way the AI currently picks a tactic for a game based on a large range of different factors. The manager's tactical attributes/preferences, home/away factor, available players, morale, form, favouritism, expected tactics for the opposition, etc etc. The AI then enters all of it into the tactics creator system, both for a particular game and for particular points of the season, and the choices dynamically change throughout the match. All of this through some extremely complicated models. I don't want them to touch any of these processes at all. All I want is to affect two of those initial, static factors (the manager's preferences and the club's preferences), once in a while through trends. Perhaps through a procedure that runs only at the end of the season.

It would work like this:

- In a league or major competition where all the matches are fully simmed, at the end of every match the tactical choices that each manager used for the most minutes are recorded. That would be only the visible tactic creator factors that affect team instructions: philosophy, starting strategy, passing style, creative freedom, closing down, tackling, marking, crossing and roaming. Player roles do seem a bit more complicated so let's not include that at the beginning. There's no favoured player roles in the database for managers. The attribute is there for most of the other factors.

- At the end of the competition a procedure quickly goes through all these records and figures out the "typical", average set of formation/instructions that each club used. It then compares this set between all the clubs and gives a particular look to which ones overachieved/underachieved. A news item is generated. A trend may then be recorded.

- Another procedure compares the average used set of formations/instructions versus the club's traditional preferences. It measures if the club overachieved and if this overachievement was remarkable compared to the club's history or not. Then it chooses whether to affect the club's traditional preferences, and how much.

- A procedure goes through the managers who underachieved. It determines whether they should be affected by trends or not, and how much.

- When new regen staff are generated, the procedure that generates their random tactical attributes chooses a small percentage to be totally random (the pioneers), an higher percentage to follow some trends, and the majority to follow the nation's traditional ideas. Players that become staff may also be a little more favourable towards their favourite club/manager's preferences.

And that's it really. Sure it takes a lot of man hours but I'm certain there are way way more complicated routines into the game. I may be mistaken here or there because I don't have access to the source code, I have no inside info about the game's internal architecture, just taking some basic assumptions. My day job is a programmer, even if in a very different field, and I do understand there's a lot of hidden complexity here and there. I may take a full day to make a basic console screen and a bunch of database logic behind it just to write/delete records to a database (far far far less complex than simulation routines). There's documentation, testing and testing to do, lots of bureaucracy to make sure everything follows the company's norms and the pieces all fit each other. But things get done... I've seen ideas that seemed colossaly impossible to develop, 4 or 5 months later they're done.

And nobody said this has all to be ready at once for FM13. SI goes through a hell of a lof of iterations to perfect features over each version of the game.

And as for the holiday game testing thing, well they don't need to do it to every single slight change to the game engine, just once in a while to check if things are balanced? I think the beta testers already do this actually, to monitor things like the balance of regens.

The ideas would sound nice but they would require a huge increase in the sophistication of the AI which I doubt could happen anytime soon.

So Noikeee, if I'm correct, you're saying that this could happen if your ideas were implemented:

In the year 2014, Manchester Utd. win both the EPL and Champion's league using an attacking 4-3-3. England win the world cup using a similar formation. In 2015, Barca win the CL using a 4-5-1 (with very attack-minded wingers), and Man City win the prem, also using a variation of the 4-3-3. Now in 2016, David Moyes is enduring some tough luck at Everton, his side hovering above relegation. In desperation, he decides to take a page from the cookbook of United, City, and Barca (as it obviously works for them)- and adopts a 4-3-3 formation. Gradually other managers who have been underachieving or are looking to alter their playing style start to copy the formations of the world's top clubs, until someone wins the CL using 3-5-2, and the whole process begins to start over.

Other than the England winning the WC bit, is this what you're suggesting could happen? Perhaps it would be a bit more gradual than my above example, I don't really know how quickly this would take effect.

So Noikeee, if I'm correct, you're saying that this could happen if your ideas were implemented:

In the year 2014, Manchester Utd. win both the EPL and Champion's league using an attacking 4-3-3. England win the world cup using a similar formation. In 2015, Barca win the CL using a 4-5-1 (with very attack-minded wingers), and Man City win the prem, also using a variation of the 4-3-3. Now in 2016, David Moyes is enduring some tough luck at Everton, his side hovering above relegation. In desperation, he decides to take a page from the cookbook of United, City, and Barca (as it obviously works for them)- and adopts a 4-3-3 formation. Gradually other managers who have been underachieving or are looking to alter their playing style start to copy the formations of the world's top clubs, until someone wins the CL using 3-5-2, and the whole process begins to start over.

Other than the England winning the WC bit, is this what you're suggesting could happen? Perhaps it would be a bit more gradual than my above example, I don't really know how quickly this would take effect.

In a sense I think this is what he is meaning - although, like you said, a lot more sophisticated. I, personally, can't see how it would be as difficult as some are saying to implement into the game though.

What he means is that instead of all managers/clubs going after the same player with a high CA/PA they look for a mixture of both the ability of the player and how they would fit into the dynamics of the squad. In the most basic terms he is saying that each team would have a more individual approach to the game with some managers preferring a lanky, slower ST whereas others are might look for the smaller, quicker and more technically minded attacker. Obviously over time some managers might adopt more successful tactics but as the game progresses and new managers with different mindsets take over different clubs the tactics will change again and again meaning there would never really be one dominant formation or style of play.

I think that it is a fantastic idea, +1.

I think what you're asking for is fairly complex and the AI intelligence is quite a distance from it at this point. However in future versions of the game yeah, for sure- I like it!

So Noikeee, if I'm correct, you're saying that this could happen if your ideas were implemented:

In the year 2014, Manchester Utd. win both the EPL and Champion's league using an attacking 4-3-3. England win the world cup using a similar formation. In 2015, Barca win the CL using a 4-5-1 (with very attack-minded wingers), and Man City win the prem, also using a variation of the 4-3-3. Now in 2016, David Moyes is enduring some tough luck at Everton, his side hovering above relegation. In desperation, he decides to take a page from the cookbook of United, City, and Barca (as it obviously works for them)- and adopts a 4-3-3 formation. Gradually other managers who have been underachieving or are looking to alter their playing style start to copy the formations of the world's top clubs, until someone wins the CL using 3-5-2, and the whole process begins to start over.

Other than the England winning the WC bit, is this what you're suggesting could happen? Perhaps it would be a bit more gradual than my above example, I don't really know how quickly this would take effect.

That's pretty much what I'm saying, yes. But while some guys would follow the trend like sheep as Moyes in your example, others would start trying random different stuff. Otherwise you're going to have everyone playing the same formation/system after a few seasons.

In a sense I think this is what he is meaning - although, like you said, a lot more sophisticated. I, personally, can't see how it would be as difficult as some are saying to implement into the game though.

No, it doesn't really have to be a lot more sophisticated, at least not to begin with. Sure, if they're going to do properly absolutely everything I suggest in my opening post, with all possible ramifications in all modules carefully explored, ex. trending attributes, trending preferred moves, trending player roles, trending transfer policy preferences, styles of play linked to attributes, etc etc; then yes it's going to take years and years of work. But it could start with something as simple as that.

i'd reckon we will see all those in fm 2021