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what causes disaster matches?


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So I had managed to make it to February undefeated with only two draws. I was carefully guarding against both complacency and pressure. My players had great morale and started the match motivated. In the first ten minutes, a Blackburn striker "playing without confidence" scores a goal after a defender makes a mistake. I sub the defender. Then another defender makes a mistake, another, another, another... all while this is happening, my "Motivated" attackers actually create more clear cut chances but miss every single one.

In the last ten minutes, both of my key strikers pick up injuries taking us down to 9 men. The match ends 6-0, our first defeat of the season. The injuries put them both out for the rest of the season. This is the day after the transfer window closes, and two days before a crucial match against our title rivals who have managed to stay a mere 3 points behind us on the table. Oh, and my main replacement striker just left with the international squad for some CONCACAF tournament. He won't come back until the end of the month.

Since this match, even after recovering morale, we've been in an ugly slump and slid down the table, most recently losing to a championship side in the FA Cup.

So what causes these unmitigated, season-destroying disasters? Just incredibly bad luck? Are they scripted events like club takeovers? Is it possible to do anything to recover from them or should I just holiday until mid-May?

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Yeah, that's why I'm so frustrated. I thought I could avoid this sort of mid-season meltdown if I built my team focusing mostly on Determination, Composure and Pressure-Handling.

After my transfer dealing and strict-ass approach to poor performances, the average Determination for my preferred starting XI is 17. Only three of my substitutes have a Determination lower than 15. I transferred out anyone who showed a tendency to get nervous last season. I brought in mental beasts like Muller and Adler... then February hits and, like clockwork, disaster strikers and my team begins the irrecoverable decline while my rivals happily march up the table.

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That is quite a severe case, don't think I've ever had a season ending loss that bad, but when one result destroys the campaign for me, I tend to look towards the next season straight away, going through the motions of the current season and trying to get over what has ruined what was going well.

I have no idea what really causes them, I wouldn't say they are scripted, but they do happen all too often, and I always find these disaster matches occur when I'm chasing something, whether it be for relegation/promotion or the title. Of course you can recover, but your season has been heavily damaged; just regroup and try to finish in the best possible position considering what's happened!

Also, you mention the motivation of your players and your opposition, perhaps the substituting of the defender had a bad impact on the rest of the team, its hard to tell. :thdn:

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This sort of thing is not pre-determined, or it would happen to everyone who played the game and we would have thousands of threads on the subject.

It seems like all the random factors in the game have conspired against you all at the same time, which is just incredibly unlucky. The odds are probably like winning the lottery, just less fun.

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Even if you have mental beasts, really good motivation/media skills and are strict with performances, you're players will make mistakes. This is human nature.

Unfortunately, you had multiple players make mistakes for the first time. This was coupled with bad luck and injuries. These things happen.

This wasn't pre-determined and it wasn't because you are chasing the league title. This simple happened because it happened.

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Even if you have mental beasts, really good motivation/media skills and are strict with performances, you're players will make mistakes. This is human nature.

Unfortunately, you had multiple players make mistakes for the first time. This was coupled with bad luck and injuries. These things happen.

This wasn't pre-determined and it wasn't because you are chasing the league title. This simple happened because it happened.

QFT, unfortunately these things just happen, nothing that can be avoided, sounds like your team just had a mare that day, the injuries are just a very unlucky coincidence.

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Well, Walcott came back from a 6-month injury and the slump has come to a pretty remarkable end, allowing us to claw our way back up to the top. I still completely expect us to choke in the last five matches, but this was pretty satisfying after a two month-long meltdown:

swv31u.jpg

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Reagrding the injuries and unavailability of players issue, I have always thought there must be some form of deliberate scripting in the programme for this. All too often over the last few FMs, injury crises in my games seem to target specific positions only, often at the same time as losing other players in the same position to international competions, just after transfer windows have shut or just before the most important run of games in the season. Typically, it will also rob me of my first 2 choices for another postion at the same time. The worst case of this for me was circa FM07 or 08, when both senior right wingers picked up long-term injuries in the same week, immediately followed by this chain of unbelievable events:

- next game, best youth winger injured.

- last remaining youth winger injured in following game.

- loan winger injured in first 5 mins of next game.

- 2nd loan winger injured in training before next game.

- 3rd loan winger suffers injury in 1st half of next game and was only just fit enough to play in subsequent game.

Whilst this is an extreme example, I do feel that the game seems to force crisis scenarios on teams, rather than allow them to happen randomly and naturally through the normal variables in the game (and similar to real life). Has anyone else seen similar patterns in their games?

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So I had managed to make it to February undefeated with only two draws. I was carefully guarding against both complacency and pressure. My players had great morale and started the match motivated. In the first ten minutes, a Blackburn striker "playing without confidence" scores a goal after a defender makes a mistake. I sub the defender. Then another defender makes a mistake, another, another, another... all while this is happening, my "Motivated" attackers actually create more clear cut chances but miss every single one.

In the last ten minutes, both of my key strikers pick up injuries taking us down to 9 men. The match ends 6-0, our first defeat of the season. The injuries put them both out for the rest of the season. This is the day after the transfer window closes, and two days before a crucial match against our title rivals who have managed to stay a mere 3 points behind us on the table. Oh, and my main replacement striker just left with the international squad for some CONCACAF tournament. He won't come back until the end of the month.

Since this match, even after recovering morale, we've been in an ugly slump and slid down the table, most recently losing to a championship side in the FA Cup.

So what causes these unmitigated, season-destroying disasters? Just incredibly bad luck? Are they scripted events like club takeovers? Is it possible to do anything to recover from them or should I just holiday until mid-May?

Luck, bad players, players with poor mental strength and poor management would all play a part. By the sounds of it the first term dominated this one.

I've had a moment like that before. It was my first season in the Champions League with Honvéd. I'd built a strong young squad that had effectively conquered Hungary that season and was doing the same in Europe. We'd come from the 2nd qualifying round to make the group stage then destroyed it with 5 wins and a single draw in our last match against Atletico Madrid (they scored in the 88th minute in Budapest, we beat them 3-1 in Madrid).

Following the lengthy winter break we returned to action and got back to our winning ways. We'd taken out our first opponents Liverpool in the Champions League knockout phases with ease and due to fatigue I gave my B side a run against relegation fodder Gyor in first leg our League Cup tie. They drew that match 0-0 away and a week or so later we faced Bayern Munich in the Champions League and beat them 3-0 away with ease. After a 4 day break we had the home leg of our match against Gyor. I send out my full strength side, apart from at right back where my wonderkid Kevin Lutz came in for my injured first choice rightback. Being at home having seen off the likes of Atletico Madrid, FC Porto, Liverpool and Bayern Munich with relative ease it seemed like a piece of cake.

It started off well enough. My side were dominating and my captain Yurchenko was seemingly still in amazing form. Twenty minutes in though my keeper miss a cross into the box and it was 1-0 from nothing, their first attack. Not all was lost though as we continued to dominate. Then from nothing again, their second trip up field, in the 35th minute, their injured striker puts in one of the best passes I've ever seen to the winger. My keeper, already shaken from earlier is wrong footed and the winger slots it home for a 2-0 lead. Even after this the side continued to dominate and the first half finished 11 shots (9 on target) to 2. The side came out in the second half and battled well for the first ten minutes. Then the young rightback had a rush of blood to his head and under no pressure put the ball out for a corner, giving them their third chance of the game. This time Yurchenko, the captain, finally scored after numerous attempts. The only problem was which net it was. From here everything fell apart, 3-0 down and with hope drying up fast. Lutz quickly got 2 yellow cards and Yurchenko came off with a knee injury. As I'd already used up all my subs mere minutes earlier in a desperate attempt to save the game it was now a 9 man Honvéd desperately trying to save their League Cup campaign. There was little the side could do and with another striker, Rudenok coming off injured as well the 8 man Honvéd shamefully awaited the full time whistle. They had been dumped out of the cup by a side struggling to even make it look like they could survive.

The aftermath of the match left me thinking something similar to you now. My captain was out for a month, one of my other strikers was gone for the season and we'd been humiliate by a nothing side. Things were good for them though, they built on the success pulling off the great escape surviving by a single point on the last day. They even in fact survived by a goal in the last 10 minutes and have since become a top 5 side in Hungary and been successfully in Europe.

I made a "Lutz Report" on the Gyor disaster and my conclusions were as such:

1. The side didn't have enough depth for the second half of the season with European commitments

2. Having on average a game every 4 days (~3 without the international breaks) this depth could lead to blowouts

3. Honvéd II (since renamed Kispest) didn't offer enough support in terms of first team grade players

4. Yurchenko's inconsistency was a liability, especially as captain

I began a large scale scouting programme and a new team structure system. I would have my first XI as I did currently, however I'd in tandem have a second XI of first team players that would rotate with them entirely on alternative games once the season was in full swing. This would hopefully limit the number of injuries and poor performances due to fatigue and bring the number of days between games to a very restful 6 days on average. This had the side effect that my first XI only played around 35 games a season.

On top of these changes Honvéd II was now filled with basically any player that caught my eye, whether they'd be capable of making the first XI ever or not. Since then they have dominated the second tier and their former ranks not only now populate many of Hungary's better sides, but also many of Europe's. One that "passed me by" in fact won World Player of the year this season at 26 (he signed at 19 and left at 21).

Has this eliminated disasters... Not really, but they certainly don't happen very often and certainly not the extent of the Gyor Disaster.

At the end of the day though, they do just seem to happen every once and a while (once every season or so). I don't think it's scripted, I just think it's bound to happen at some point.

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