Pre season promotion odds: rubbish?

I just started my 5th season at a club in level 4 in holland (downloaded expansion). For the 5th time I'm 40-1 'favourite' for the title. It would apparently be a great feat if I managed to avoid the agonomity of finishing bottom of the table.

In my time at this club I finished 13th, 6th, 6th and 2nd respectively, only bad luck (or 11.3 with many injuries, many cards and many shots hitting the woodwork) denied me me to be champions. Note that only the champions get promoted in this particular league (imagine the disappointment). It seems logical that I'm a prime candidate for the title, maybe only outranked by the relegated club from the league above mine.

Would be great to actually be able to bet to those odds, because I plan to be champions this season and I think the team are well able to.

Another strange thing (but I blame the league-expansion) is that when I'm eliminated in the Dutch Amateur Cup (between the clubs of level 3 and lower, one that I actually did win once) "I wasnt expected to have an impact", but when I'm exit in the Dutch Cup by the hands of a club 3 tiers up from mine it's disapponitment all round because I was expected to lift the cup...

This cant be right can it?

You can't moan at SI about title odds when you're playing a downloaded league. SI made the game to work with the leagues on the disc. If you download other leagues, you're at the mercy of the person who made it. Some are excellently done for sure, but this one must not have the same attention to detail that SI put into the game.

id speak to the person who made the update as it has obviously not be made that well

I dont think its a problem with the league, I've noticed a similar thing in the premiership. In my game I'm Aston Villa and I've won 8 consecutive titles and only lost one league game in two and half years, yet at the beginning of the new season I'm third favourite for the title, and I havent been favourites in any season.

I dont think its a problem with the league, I've noticed a similar thing in the premiership. In my game I'm Aston Villa and I've won 8 consecutive titles and only lost one league game in two and half years, yet at the beginning of the new season I'm third favourite for the title, and I havent been favourites in any season.

sorry, my answer was based on mine as after i won the league back to back i was favourites every year until i finished 3rd and then 4th and i was then down to 2nd favourite. Cant say i have noticed any issue with it, but i wasnt in england.

You can't moan at SI about title odds when you're playing a downloaded league..

I don't moan, I just noticed this as strange and posted it. I specifically indicate that I play with a downloaded league, so it might be due to this. But I can't be sure can I? It might just as well be an issue that happens in SI-made leagues also, but I wouldn't know. My guess was that FM notices my past rankings and ajusts my promotion odds accordingly. It's not as if this is my first season and the custom-made reps are still intact. I expected to be underestimated a bit, like bottom half or so, but to be expected to finish bottom of the table year after year can't be right, and not entirely accounted for by the downloaded leagues. I'm in my 10th season in total, so there has been some considerable number crunching going on already..

The Dutch Cup I mention ís a SI-made tournament, so it is slightly odd that I'm supposed to win that one with my 4th level club, especially considering my apparent lack of rep (although I realise my club was downloaded also)..

In general the game doesn't deal well with non-english low-reputation leagues. I mean, you can get promoted from northern irish bottom division to top (two promotions), win five cups (and quality for europe) and get barely any reputation increase at all. It's all down to reputation really - and there's definitely an issue with low-rep-leagues I believe.

That's a very dissapointing miss of the game I havent noticed in earlier versions..

So I guess I'm stuck in dutch lower league for the rest of my career-save if I dont get promoted 3 times.. Definite game-breaker..

Club reps don't change as much as they should...but then again players go to clubs with lower reps than they should so it kind of evens out. One problem area though is the sponsorships...they don't seem to change enough for overperforming/underperforming teams probably for the same reason.

I dont care as much for the clubs rep, but more for the increase in my personal rep. If what Krald says is true (almost no increase in rep when getting a club form 3rd level northern Ireland into europe in a couple of years) then one gets a really hard time getting out of this low rep country.

You can't moan at SI about title odds when you're playing a downloaded league. SI made the game to work with the leagues on the disc. If you download other leagues, you're at the mercy of the person who made it. Some are excellently done for sure, but this one must not have the same attention to detail that SI put into the game.

The game engine should work independent of the data. In practice there is usually some dependency but I don't see why he can't complain since title odds are not easily-controlled by editors. But 40-1 favourites is an example of where the game has failed - you would never find these odds.

The game engine should work independent of the data. In practice there is usually some dependency but I don't see why he can't complain since title odds are not easily-controlled by editors. But 40-1 favourites is an example of where the game has failed - you would never find these odds.

I think your a little confused x42. He isn't saying he is favourite to win the title, he is saying he has odds of 40/1 to win the title which puts him towards the bottom of the league.

The person who made the database would also set the reputation levels for both the teams & the players and both seem to play a large roll in FM calculating the pre-season odds.

Saying that you do get a similar problem in SI made leagues but not quite to the same extent. This can be made to look worse if you sign a load of players who have fairly low reputation for your league but you know will play better/get better than their current reputation.

I think your a little confused x42. He isn't saying he is favourite to win the title, he is saying he has odds of 40/1 to win the title which puts him towards the bottom of the league.

Actually the OP did state that he is favourite to win the title.

In general the game doesn't deal well with non-english low-reputation leagues. I mean, you can get promoted from northern irish bottom division to top (two promotions), win five cups (and quality for europe) and get barely any reputation increase at all. It's all down to reputation really - and there's definitely an issue with low-rep-leagues I believe.

To be honest that doesn't sound too unrealistic to me, the Northern Irish league is tiny and always will be simply because the population of the country is not large enough to provide the fan base which is needed for the league to grow. Even if a manager did acheive that in real life, I can't see his reputation going up that much, simply because not that many people would even get to hear about it.

Actually the OP did state that he is favourite to win the title.

He did but its the context in which he said it.

He said he was a 40/1 "favourite" other teams would be 10/1 favourites or 20/1 favourites. He didn't mean he was actually the odds on favourites or the team with the shortest odds.

Nb The other quote isn't mine btw Rob.

He said he was a 40/1 "favourite" other teams would be 10/1 favourites or 20/1 favourites. He didn't mean he was actually the odds on favourites or the team with the shortest odds.

Well I'm confused then because "favourite" means the team with the shortest odds. When the OP says he is 40/1 favourite, I assume he means that he is 40/1 to win the division and that he is the favourite, i.e. those are the shortest odds. If he doesn't mean that I don't know what he means...

I might not have used the right phrases, but with the 40/1 I meant that they think I will finish rockbottom...

I think your a little confused x42. He isn't saying he is favourite to win the title, he is saying he has odds of 40/1 to win the title which puts him towards the bottom of the league.

The person who made the database would also set the reputation levels for both the teams & the players and both seem to play a large roll in FM calculating the pre-season odds.

Saying that you do get a similar problem in SI made leagues but not quite to the same extent. This can be made to look worse if you sign a load of players who have fairly low reputation for your league but you know will play better/get better than their current reputation.

He used the word "favorite" rather than "favorites", which is a huge difference in this context and was confusing. It makes sense now.

That said, 40/1 for a team that finished 2nd last season is pretty weird, even if it could well be a "Liverpool" (finish 2nd, then out of the Champions League places the next season). 40/1 would be below mid-table or thereabouts I'd imagine.

I might not have used the right phrases, but with the 40/1 I meant that they think I will finish rockbottom...

OK I see. For future reference when you say you are "favourites" or you team is "the favourite" it means that your team have been given the shortest odds to win the division (i.e the bookmakers think that you are the most likely team to win it.)

If there are any other teams with shorter odds, then your team is not the favourite.

The odds and favourites thing is broker on the game. I have won the league 8 years running and for some reason I am not the favourite this year! I am in December and I have won all my games bar one (draw) so the bookies were wrong!!!!

Shocker for you all... bookmakers are not always right. If they were, the favourite would win every time.

Shocker for you all... bookmakers are not always right. If they were, the favourite would win every time.

Two wrongs don't make a right, though.

40/1 isn't the sort of odds you'd expect for someone who did challenge the leaders last season.

True - they are not always right - but in my situation, winning the EPL eight years in a row would more or less guarantee me to be the favourites (especially as none of my first team were sold and I only strengthened). Anyway it does not affect the game so it is not an issue for me.