Promotion, the Ai and Staying Up, a study.

First of all, i know this is a topic i have posted on before, but i thought it needed to be brought up again

The general gist of this topic is to show what seems to be a fairly patchy area of the game, which i can appreciate is extremely realistic as it is, but this one issue is amongst the most irritating for me whether it be by playing a long-term game, or even holidaying to see how the world changes.

It is on the subject of promotion to the above league, and how in alot of cases the team that goes up seems to have next to no chance unless they have bag loads of cash or they came from that league before. I found with a recent game, that despite improving a lot of the Npower Championship sides they were still almost constantly in the relegation places from start to finish.

You might think fair enough it is the premier league, not an easy league to get into, but the reality is quite different, despite the heavy amounts of cash and the created notion of "the huge gap" teams constantly defy these barriers and have a good tilt at the league above, this is especially true in the football league, all three promoted sides from league one at current are competing strongly in the championship. The story in leagues one and two also show that often the promoted teams aren't dead set to go back down either.

I have seen a few of these threads with future games, particularly the 150 years save, it showed fluctuation over time, but a rate massively slower than you would find in the real world.

Typically from research within the space of 10 years these were the real life teams, of the top english tier.

2000/01 - 20 Teams - 11 Current 9 Different

1990/91 - 20 Teams - 9 Current 11 Different

1980/81 - 22 Teams - 12 Current 10 Different

1970/71 - 22 Teams - 13 Current 9 Different

1960/61 - 22 Teams - 16 Current 6 Different

1950/51 - 22 Teams - 15 Current 7 Different

(in relation to the current season's teams)

I also believe the general Current Ability of the championship players, should be higher or at least some of the weaker premier sides not being so high. Though i would believe this slow "fluctuation" of teams is more down to the way results/reputation/ability/past etc. work so it could be entirely up to the devs.

I do hope you have found this thread interesting, if this could be looked at it would be grand, though i do understand if it may be tough to recreate.

Thoughts and opinions welcome.

The thread in the editing section where i carried out a few tests (changing reputation etc.)

http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/235705-Closing-the-Gap-%28League-Simulation-Project%29

A possible suggestion that could help the process of more variation could be a historical average reputation, where this value is based on the clubs entire history and success, perhaps with clubs holding a higher value, finding it easier to return to the promised land. (this reputation effect would most likely be triggered when the team is outside a division that is based around a certain reputation) likewise there could be a value that represents the stability of the club, with 1 suggesting total instability, not likely to be heading upward in the near future, may have a volatile board, disharmony between fans etc. to 20, things are working extremely well, the charge is ongoing, good harmony, fans believing etc. of course this would be a fluctuating value that would be based on a number of factors, though this may already exist in some shape or form.

How this could look:

Leeds United

Current Reputation: 5250

Historical Reputation: 8000

Momentum/Stability Rating: 15

(just speculating, could be biased hehe, but you get the idea)

Historical reputation is an interesting idea - I've been posting on the lack of indignation the AI poses when a team falls from success: for example how top top teams don't seem to mind finishing mid-table - this is personified by Man Utd or Liverpool finishing 9th and not bothering to go on a spending spree. This would never happen in real life - there would be uproars!

I think your 'historical reputation' and 'momentum' (which you could also refer to as reputational elasticity if you want an alternative term!) could then be applied - this could be a dynamic function of fans' opinions (how used they have got to winning or losing) and the type of man your chairman is.

Yeah, though i will admit i did think about lower division clubs when i thought of it, it would work very well in the top division to allow for bigger teams to stay around the top positions, what we want is for clubs to react in a realistic manner, in the case of say one of the "big 4" the most likely downfall, if there were to be one would be through unpopular ownership, the league finances collapsing, and not finishing in the champions league places, or just a very slow decline, based on ever decreasing position, level of player, or even losing the manager that made them, a good example of this is with charlton and Curbishley. I would imagine this is one way more variation could be achieved, as fairly successful lower division teams like Leeds, Forest, Derby, Sheff Wed etc, the momentum rating was intended something like this

Sheffield Wednesday as we all know have a strong past, but they are lingering in League One, much like leeds, this is where the rating would noticeably become very low, in other words as Popider the elasticity is weaker than ever, there is the possibility it may take a long time for them to recover, or maybe not at all, this momentum value, would most likely only raise slowly should the current reputation be much lower than historical, it may be the case that current reputation keeps on falling, and the momentum rating has no effect, of course historical reputation could fall, but this would take a long time for the more established clubs during their usually long existence, similar to how if a smaller club spends a long time in the upper reaches of football, their historical reputation might grow fairly quickly, but at the same time might be more susceptible to decreasing fairly quickly, if the momentum figure is not to a decent level. Going back to the sheffield wednesday case, lets say they fell down to league two and spend 5 or 6 years there, looking dire and out of life (i do not wish this upon any team, just using an example of how this might work), there may be a moment of great joy that can revive the spirit within the historic club, say a big FA Cup Upset, the hiring of a legend, or new investment. That will be when the momentum cogs start to turn, and gradually wednesday might start getting back to where they deserve to be.

Momentum Examples:

Hull City - A generation of strengthening, (strong, but steady momentum building) tough championship season (momentum falls) they stay up but only just, next season they, like many in the unpredictable championship, go for it, (momentum builds) reached play-off positions (momentum builds), massively over expectations (momentum builds) win the play-off final (momentum builds) they then go on to last two season's in the premier league, albeit they weren't strong seasons and a few of the other promoted sides such as Stoke, and Wigan, have over the years established themselves, hell you could even look at Bolton as establishing themselves, the premier league is not impossible, it is tough, but not impossible, hopefully a more realistic variation involving these new figures might help add the game's already heavily praised level of realism.

Great idea Shaun, but did you have to use Wednesday as your example of a team in decline? When i read the bit about getting relegated to league 2 a chill went through me

seriously though, you're right about the Historical reputation, and might i suggest another stat, it's not really related to the promotion issue but i just thought of it whilst reading your post. What about a value for the team's reputation overseas? For example, Wednesday and Leeds will have many fans abroad, especially in countries with poorer leagues, because of their past successes or big signings which would have made them well known in countries in Europe. I know that whenever Wednesday sign a Frenchman, they always say that they were happy to come because of Chris Waddle's fame in France. Of course, at the level we are at nowadays, the sort of players we have been bidding for would be unlikely to have heard of the other teams at our level, but they've heard of Wednesday and that makes us slightly more attractive to French players. Obviously, we're unlikely to be able to take Samir Nasri from Arsenal, but we can punch ever so slightly above our weight when negotiating with some players. the same goes for Dutch, Belgian, Italian and American players after our good times with players like Regi Blinker, Gerald Sibon, Wim Jonk, Giles de Bilde, Paolo Di Canio, Benni Carbone and John Harkes.

The same goes for the Manchester Uniteds and Celtics of the world with their Japanese and Korean players: they've now got a big rep in the far east and can attract more/better players from that area as a result.

I'm sure Leeds also have a big South African following what with Lucas Radebe's association with the club and then there's teams like (pardon my French) Sheffield United who are sponsored by the Maltese tourism board so if there was a great Maltese youngster coming through, they're probably more likely to sign him than any other teams at their level would be.

In a way that would also be linked to historical reputation, but anyway, good idea mate.

For example, Wednesday and Leeds will have many fans abroad, especially in countries with poorer leagues, because of their past successes or big signings which would have made them well known in countries in Europe. I know that whenever Wednesday sign a Frenchman, they always say that they were happy to come because of Chris Waddle's fame in France. Of course, at the level we are at nowadays, the sort of players we have been bidding for would be unlikely to have heard of the other teams at our level, but they've heard of Wednesday and that makes us slightly more attractive to French players. Obviously, we're unlikely to be able to take Samir Nasri from Arsenal, but we can punch ever so slightly above our weight when negotiating with some players. the same goes for Dutch, Belgian, Italian and American players after our good times with players like Regi Blinker, Gerald Sibon, Wim Jonk, Giles de Bilde, Paolo Di Canio, Benni Carbone and John Harkes.

The same goes for the Manchester Uniteds and Celtics of the world with their Japanese and Korean players: they've now got a big rep in the far east and can attract more/better players from that area as a result.

I'm sure Leeds also have a big South African following what with Lucas Radebe's association with the club and then there's teams like (pardon my French) Sheffield United who are sponsored by the Maltese tourism board so if there was a great Maltese youngster coming through, they're probably more likely to sign him than any other teams at their level would be.

In a way that would also be linked to historical reputation, but anyway, good idea mate.

although this is a good idea, i think it would be better linked to sponsorship or financials as opposed to signing players, currently i think if you have players on your books or backroom staff you are more likely to get newgen players of the same nationality, which is probably the best way to work it, if it makes signing players of that nationality easier it must make it harder to sign players of a nationality which has never played for that club, which is probably unrealistic mostly and would definately be infuriating for managers, can you imagine if relegation favourites Everton beat Chelsea and Man Utd to signing 'World Class Chinese Regen' in 2017 because they once had Li Tie and Li Weifeng for ten minutes in the early 00's?

Sorry dan, it was that or having to mention Leeds torrid time again, maybe next time my example should be someone like Luton (who i wish the best of luck to, in their mission to get back to where they deserve to be)

Just opened the editor again and gave some large rep boosts to all teams in england, in an attempt to level the playing field in each league, could make things interesting.

Was thinking, Huddersfield, they used to be a really good team, but this was a long time ago, so i was wondering, how would you rate them and how would the system work in their situation?

a possible example

Huddersfield Town

Historical Reputation: 6000-7000? (if it is based entirely on accumalative reputation then it might not be so high, but there could be a variable that defines a teams absolute prime)

Momentum: 10

This would be great, especially for long saves if the game could acknowledge that Liverpool are now in the championship in 2025.

Would add to news features too - recognising that just 2 years ago the current champions were playing in the 2nd tier etc.

It would also sway players transfer decisions - i.e. a player might prefer to sign for a big name like Liverpool even though they haven't won the league for donkeys years.

The great thing about it is if it is based on accumalative reputation gain, and momentum (especially) any team, even one without history could have all of the right factors to make a name for themselves in the football world, for all you know Canvey Island, could have a number of factors that are monumental in them improving as a club and could therefore ride on the momentum of a big fat 20. Though in most cases something really big would have to happen to tip the momentum scale in such drastic directions.

although this is a good idea, i think it would be better linked to sponsorship or financials as opposed to signing players, currently i think if you have players on your books or backroom staff you are more likely to get newgen players of the same nationality, which is probably the best way to work it, if it makes signing players of that nationality easier it must make it harder to sign players of a nationality which has never played for that club, which is probably unrealistic mostly and would definately be infuriating for managers, can you imagine if relegation favourites Everton beat Chelsea and Man Utd to signing 'World Class Chinese Regen' in 2017 because they once had Li Tie and Li Weifeng for ten minutes in the early 00's?

Good point. but i'm not saying the overseas rep or the past signings based system would rule all, just that it would add something. your "World Class Chinese Regen" would go to Man Utd, Chelsea, Madrid etc... because they'd make the best offers and are the most attractive clubs, but if it was a choice between Everton, Wigan, Blackburn and Fulham, Everton would have a little edge over the competition because of their slightly higher rep in the Far East. I think most of the top-division teams in the world are pretty well-known everywhere else so this would only really apply to lower-division clubs with big pasts and players who are not attracting covetous glances from the top teams.

I don't actually think that it would be harder to sign players whose nationality had not played for your team before, i think that would remain as it is, dependant on rep, division rep, wages, first-team football etc... just that a high rep in, for example, Swaziland would make negotiations with Swazilanders a bit smoother.

and actually the big teams don't always get who they are after, look at Gareth Bale, he chose a much lower-ranked Tottenham over Man United, who did have a legendary Welshman in the team at the time, so it is not unknown for great youth talents to reject the bigger clubs for a better chance at first-team football.

In conclusion, i'm suggesting an added factor to negotiations, not a king-making new reputation stat.

anyway, we're distracting from the main thrust of this thread, if you want to continue the debate, PM me.