Ranking, Re-Ranking and adapting - A discussion

As far as I can see, a lot of people claim one of a number of things, and all are, in general, the result of the same phenomenon. For instance:

As Manchester United I can beat Chelsea, but not Southport

I won 20 games on the bounce, but now I can't beat even the most rubbish teams

The reason has been referred to by a number of different things, but the most understandable definition is re-ranking.

So what are the side effects of re-ranking, and how can we combat them?

Combatting is difficult and may take some explanation from others, as I'm not that good at combatting it myself (I'm quite good against "better" teams, but not so good against smaller ones). I think it's best, then, that we outline the main scenarios and then try and find the solutions.

First, I know that these are touched briefly by the TT&F Theory threads, but I don't believe there are enough categories in there. It looks at playing stronger/weaker teams, playing at home/away, but while I think this is useful but not complete enough. It needs to be explained why and how the opposition will play against the human and, therefore, how the human should play against the AI.

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As I see it, there are three aspects to consider when setting up to play a game:

1) How good are your players

2) How good are the opposition

3) What is the expected outcome of the game

One huge mistake people seem to make is that the answers to 1 and 2 will automatically make 3. Not so. For instance, if you are West Brom who have bought in a great side and have just got promoted to the Premier League. For the first half of the season you may have the skill to be a top 6 team. However, the odds for each game will say that you are a bottom 6 team. Therefore, the opposition will expect to win and will set out to win the game.

Now flip this in the second half of the season. You're fourth, you've beated Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and your players have got a mean reputation. The odds will change to reflect this. Suddenly, teams don't attack you as much and pay you more respect. Now your counter attacking, fast paced game just loses you the ball and you can't win a game.

Even during games you may have to change. Go 1-0 down to a team who expect to lose and they will park a bus infront of goal (ask any Arsenal fan). However, go 1-0 down to a team that expects to win and they may continue to attack, giving you more space in which to try and equalise. Similary, go 1-0 against a team that expects to win and expect a torrent on your goal. Against a side that expects to lose, you may break them and go on to win the game.

So the first piece of advice - check the betting odds. Counter attack against teams who expect to beat you, be patient with teams who probably will put 10 men behind the ball.

That's reason 3 taken care of, what about reasons 1 and 2? Well, this is more a matter of taste, and one I'd like to open up discussion to. If you are a stronger, more skillful team you can get away with more skillful passing tactics. Similarly, poorer quality teams may need to revert to the long ball. And again, against a skillful side who expect to lose, you still don't want to give the ball away, but against an unskillful side who expect to win you may be able to take more risks. Who knows - it's down to the individual manager and each specific match.

This is a very brief introduction, and I'd like some input from others who have managed to achieve success over a long period of time even due to the re-ranking process. However, overall it may be more important to consider who the media thinks will win rather than who you think will win.

Another good thread

The tip about looking at who the media expect to win is a good one, I always do that and look at the odds.

Yep odds are important as it tells you how attacking/defending you can expect your opponent to be.

Opposition often changes tactics and formation during a game and if you do not counteract you will often suffer. The CLASSIC example is your team conceding an early goal and the opposition changes to the 3-3-2-1-1 formation without you noticing. If you watch matches on key highlights and the 2nd fastest highlights setting you could easily miss this.

You will probably end up loosing 0-1 because of that

I find the opposition formation incredibly important too. Gives you a quick idea of how attacking the opposition is.

For that reason I play extended higlights, second fastest speed and make sure I'm on the formation page whenever I'm not veiwing highlights.

so what do you do to counter this? Any new strats?

Lately I've been doing this..when the media expect me to win, i start looking at dangerous players in their side who could hit me on the break.

If its a winger with great passing, then I make sure he is set to wrong foot and if its a dangerous striker who is fast, I get my players to tight mark him, but only from the opposition instructions screen. It seems to be working,

I'm in the second half of the season with Merthyr Tydfil and we are beginning to achieve top dog status in some matches

Originally posted by Millie:

I find the opposition formation incredibly important too. Gives you a quick idea of how attacking the opposition is.

For that reason I play extended higlights, second fastest speed and make sure I'm on the formation page whenever I'm not veiwing highlights.

exactly the way i view the game

Originally posted by musint:

so what do you do to counter this? Any new strats?

The theorums thread deals with the oppositions' 5-4-1 and variants, so I won't really go into that.

However, the obvious answer is to go more attacking, maybe change the shape of the team against teams who don't want to attack you. My formation is pretty much a 4-2-4 when I play clubs like that. But you do have to be very careful, as Rashidi says about the counter.

I must be gay or somthing, i always struggle vs the team that are using a halfway house tactic, Are they using there attacking tactic vs me or not ?

Maybe i should pay more attention too the actual odds and not just checking up on whos fav.

But i agree if you choose the wrong tactic vs the wrong tactic, then no matter how good your wrong tactic is the ai will win in the end, form drops players moral drops then all hell brakes loose

For when the AI doesn't seem to be really overly attacking or overly defending, the best thing to do is to play your normal tactic and play it by ear.

My usual response is to try and keep the game tight and counter-attack, hoping to go 1-0 up and then kill the game off.

This "half-way house" as you put it tends only to happen to me when I'm away from home. Most of the time, if the AI doesn't think it can win away it will shut up shop and play for the draw.

If you're a manager who thinks they need to go one way or the other, I'd go attacking but be prepared to change quite early on if it isn't working.

Also posted this in TT&F, but it really belongs here. Been off the forums too much recently so have lost track of the important threads. Anyway...

The Intricacies of Re-ranking

I have been looking very hard at the pre-match odds over my current season. I was predicted to finish 17 (out of 22) pre-season, but was 1st 12 matches in. I noticed that the pre-match odds were generally beginning to favour me or show only a slight favouritism to the other team. This is in marked contrast to '06, in which pre-match odds stayed relatively stable throughout the season, no matter which position you occupied. There seems to be much more sophistication in the AI calculating odds in '07, and it brings a host of difficulties.

I managed to grab first place by playing a high tempo, tight, counter-attacking system, both home and away, against most teams. For the first 12 matches this worked fine, with my team generally grabbing 1-0 or 2-0 wins with most focus being on defending. However, these tactics are beginning to struggle as my odds shorten. I have found I need to play slower and wider and focus on possession football at home (and sometimes away) as most teams now play high tempo, tight, counter-attacking football against me. I slipped to third after a run of dodgy performances, but this tactical tweak is beginning to reap rewards. I think the tactical switch hindered me more heavily as I am still part-time and generally play against full-time opposition with deeper and stronger squads than mine. My first 11 is comparable to teams in the division but my reserves are short of quality. Playing slow, possession football with 4-5 players out seemed counter-intuitive but does seem to be the only way to ensure performances now that I am ranked more highly. It took me a while to adjust.

It certainly seems that re-ranking is pretty constant now. In a testing scenario I went on a 2 match repeated home and away sequence, in which my odds against the away team were significantly different if I had won the first home game. Odds and the related tactical decisions of the AI seem to be calculated game-by-game, which dramatically alters the experience of FM07 from FM06. It also means that if you are over-performing early in a season, teams will adapt quickly and you won't go on the 23 match run of form common in '06. You are likely to suffer swings of fortune, with 6 game winning and losing streaks as the AI adjusts and re-adjusts to your league position.

should have read this before i slipped from 1st to 14th though i think that was more about morale than tactics...i generally do look at the odds...when a team are favourites i play 4-1-4-1 counter and gets ne a draw and sometimes even a win but also the occasional loss. I dont do this at home though, even if another team are favourites, i stick to a flat 4-4-2 with 2 dm's in the middle...works very well! but everything changes if i play one of the elite 4, in which case, its park the bus...home or away!

Great thread, here's my experience playing with Ajax.

I use 442 plain formation until 01.01. then I switch to 442 Diamond.

If I'm favorite and odds are for me I move sliders in "Attacking range" - how much,depending on odds.

If I'm not fav, it's defending with counter attack.

If odds are "even" I'll leave mentality to normal, but if home I'll attack a little.

It's f_ckin simple as that.

Had 2 loses in season, lost in semifinal vs. Man Utd - they were favorites so I played defending+counter attack at home and had 17 shots,10 on goal but Van Der Saar was in his super goalie moment.

Keep it simple and sorry for grammar.

A quick note on re-ranking.

It's interesting that since my promotion in my current save I'm currently performing incredibly well. After 8 games I'm sitting in second place after taking the runaway top team and a couple of play-off contenders as sizable scalps. All this using pretty much the same tactic I used last season.

What makes this all the more interesting is that my tactic last season didn't get the best out of my players. I drew so many that I should have won, lost when I could have nicked a draw. The re-ranking seems to make my opposition attack me (as my rank is very low), so my usual style (quick counter-attack) works a treat!

Similarly, I've been made manager of the English national team (I know, major bug). Playing pretty much the same but with a much reduced tempo and passing length I've won all but one game (Switzerland away). Obviously, my ranking is very high (3rd, actually), so teams sit back.

I fully expect my Foligno team to come unstuck in three or four games' time, and will have to play a different style to stop the opposition hitting me on the break. However, I would expect England to remain the same (unless we play a huge nation).

Any of you that play below the Premiership et al, have you also experienced this? Lightening form from average players on the higher stage? Similarly, those of you that play with the big guns, have you noticed that teams tend to play pretty much the same against you?

Why do people think re ranking happens before January? It makes no sense for it to happen any time before 1st of Jan as thats when the game updates and not before. No team changes its style playing you until you play them for the 2nd time in the league.

The reason people think it happens before this is purely down to weather effects and bad training.

Originally posted by Cleon:

Why do people think re ranking happens before January? It makes no sense for it to happen any time before 1st of Jan as thats when the game updates and not before. No team changes its style playing you until you play them for the 2nd time in the league.

The reason people think it happens before this is purely down to weather effects and bad training.

Possibly. When I left my Foligno game behind to come home and eat dangerous amounts of turkey I hadn't experienced any real changes. In fact, I'm now TOP of the league just coming into the winter break. May be now is the time to panic.

But re-ranking doesn't happen at all before January? You could well be right, but I'd like to see some kind of evidence. There seems to be at least anecdotal evidence that the pre-match odds can change depending on results throughout the season, and I was under the impression that this was linked to re-ranking. Perhaps not.

Either way, I think it is best to assume there will be a need to change one's tactics throughout the season, not just in January, to cope with the style of play of the opposition. Again, whether that's other external conditions that causes that or whether it's re-ranking is perhaps something to look into.

In short, I wouldn't completely dismiss pre-Christmas re-ranking. Maybe it isn't classic re-ranking, but I think something's going on in that thar PC of mine.

But re-ranking doesn't happen at all before January? You could well be right, but I'd like to see some kind of evidence. There seems to be at least anecdotal evidence that the pre-match odds can change depending on results throughout the season, and I was under the impression that this was linked to re-ranking. Perhaps not.

Odds are based on current form. This isn't linked to re ranking at all and if you seetheformations that the AI uses against you, this confirms this. Win a few games in a ow or get a few good results and the odds tend to changewithin the first month of a season, yet teams don't change the style ofplay they use agaisnt you. If this was classed as re ranking they would.

Either way, I think it is best to assume there will be a need to change one's tactics throughout the season, not just in January, to cope with the style of play of the opposition. Again, whether that's other external conditions that causes that or whether it's re-ranking is perhaps something to look into.

I've studied this loads over the last 2 years, and its mainly a weather issue, something many dismiss too quick or fail to acknowledge how big a part it plays. Its December to Jan that most players experience difficulties with, they mistake this with re ranking. But if you view the tactics used againts you it doesn't make sense of re ranking, were as look at weather it does.

Basically re ranking is just a change in a teams rep, which happens half way through season slightly, then dramitically at the end of the year. Re ranking is based upon rep, so it doesn't make sense to why people change their line up against you before Christmas?

So let me try and understand. If you are favourite for a game then it's defend and if i'm the underdog then it's attack because i'm not expected to win? If that is the case then it's so different to '06 and that why i'm struggling against pretty poor teams even though my side is very strong. Any help would be grateful. Thanks

Originally posted by ron.e:

So let me try and understand. If you are favourite for a game then it's defend and if i'm the underdog then it's attack because i'm not expected to win? If that is the case then it's so different to '06 and that why i'm struggling against pretty poor teams even though my side is very strong. Any help would be grateful. Thanks

No the other way around, if you favourite you cn attack, if you under dog then defensive will probs be more suited.

http://community.sigames.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/521102691/m/7732014782

This thread mentions re ranking, its posted in GQ.

I dont think that 're-ranking' becomes an issue if your paying attention to the odds and giving your teamtalks reflecting this.

A few examples.

At Home clear favourites - no pre match team talk and depending on performance at HT, then a dont let your perfomance down with telling two or three you have faith.

Away favourites - this is a tricky one, id still play a defensive formation on the counter attacking, but watch the game more closely and change accordingly. At HT the team talk would vary from expecting a win to not letting their performance down.

Home not favourites - easy, home attacking formation, tell your boys you expect a win, or if your feeling brave and depending what youve said to the media, expect a win! At HT I guess it would be you can win this game, or dont let your performance down.

Away not favourites - play your defensive (counter attacking) formation and wish your team luck, at HT tell them to enjoy the rest of the game, no pressure.

This is certainly not definitive but something I feel works for me.

Originally posted by Cleon:

No the other way around, if you favourite you cn attack, if you under dog then defensive will probs be more suited.

This makes sense but what about the adjudgements the AI makes DURING the game? You counter them, too ? For instance, when behind it often reverts to 4-2-4 late in the game which I find difficult to combat. Any suggestions ?

Need to up so it doesnt get deleted.