JamieWilliams Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm curious. I've seen Barcelona and Arsenal have some amazing winning streaks but never 100% wins in a season. But the game is all about probabilities, so I guess it must have happened in some people's saves. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingjericho Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That's almost impossible to happen. No team is so good and so much better than all the other teams that they can win all matches during an entire season, facing injuries, bans, poor form, etc. I'm sure something like that if it happens, it will be a once in a lifetime thing. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hellier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Seen teams go undefeated. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maidel Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If you assume that a club, for arguments sake, has a 75% chance of winning each match they play (probably over generous) then the chances of them winning a full season of games is 0.0000032 - or a 3 in a million chance. Therefore 3 people in every million seasons would see this happen. If you drop the probablity to 50% chance of winning each match then the chance falls to 0.0000000000015 and I dont even know if I can express that in words - I think that is once in 5 billion. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
La Furia Roja Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If you assume that a club, for arguments sake, has a 75% chance of winning each match they play (probably over generous) then the chances of them winning a full season of games is 0.0000032 - or a 3 in a million chance.Therefore 3 people in every million seasons would see this happen. If you drop the probablity to 50% chance of winning each match then the chance falls to 0.0000000000015 and I dont even know if I can express that in words - I think that is once in 5 billion. wow, way to much maths for a monday morning!! In my save HJK on the Finnish Premier League in 2016 having not dropped a point. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieWilliams Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 If you assume that a club, for arguments sake, has a 75% chance of winning each match they play (probably over generous) then the chances of them winning a full season of games is 0.0000032 - or a 3 in a million chance.Therefore 3 people in every million seasons would see this happen. If you drop the probablity to 50% chance of winning each match then the chance falls to 0.0000000000015 and I dont even know if I can express that in words - I think that is once in 5 billion. I got 0.0000179 (18 in a million) as a binomial probability, probability of success 0.75, no. of trials 38. But this is just a mathematical exercise because we can't estimate a probability of success. If a team has somehow managed to put together an amazing squad like Barcelona, developed the players further and nobody good left, they could be quite unbeatable. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maidel Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I got 0.0000179 (18 in a million) as a binomial probability, probability of success 0.75, no. of trials 38. But this is just a mathematical exercise because we can't estimate a probability of success. If a team has somehow managed to put together an amazing squad like Barcelona, developed the players further and nobody good left, they could be quite unbeatable. Yea - that would be because I had a brain freeze and used the wrong number of games And I think you nailed it with the second part - 'unbeatable' - but not impossible to draw with. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieWilliams Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 And I think you nailed it with the second part - 'unbeatable' - but not impossible to draw with. True. Plus the overconfidence issue that should limit success. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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