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Potential Ability


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I don't actually think there's anything seriously wrong with the way potential ability is done in the game, it's fine for the vast majority of players, but it's always seemed a bit too rigid to me. With the current system, there's no possibility for late bloomers, players with negative potential can only be placed in relatively broad categories and, as a result, players are given fixed potential at too young an age.

If players were instead given a (for example) normally distributed potential ability, around a mean and variance which the researchers enter into the database, the above three cases could all be handled better. Established players could be given a very low variance. Young players who are just becoming established (the ones that I think are given a fixed PA too young) could be given a slightly larger variance, and very young players could be given a higher variance. This way, established players would always have the PA predicted by the researcher, while it wouldn't always be the same 20-23 year old players who turn out to be world class. Very young players would also end up having similar PAs to what they have under the current system, but researchers would have slightly more control. If SI doesn't want the researchers to have to worry about the numbers too much, they could just be given a couple of categories for their PA, which are translated into variance (certain, unsure etc.). Alternatively, the variance could be calculated automatically based on distance between CA and PA.

I'm sure SI have already considered, and dismissed this idea for some very obvious reason, but I would like to hear what other people think.

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There is still a chance for late bloomers to happen. If a high PA player doesn't reach his PA, is picked up by a lower league side and progressed up the leagues, his CA will rise as he does.

Here is one thread: http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/225973-Training-format-Dynamic-player-potential.?

Here is another: http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/202960-An-Evolution-of-Potential-Ability?

Finally: http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php/191948-Silly-Potential-Ability!?

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There is still a chance for late bloomers to happen. If a high PA player doesn't reach his PA, is picked up by a lower league side and progressed up the leagues, his CA will rise as he does.

That's true for newgens, but not for the players in the database. Only lower league players with negative potential have any chance of being good, but they're always young. I don't see a problem with the long term in game system, it's only the initial database which is a bit too set in stone, given that estimating a players potential isn't easy.

Thanks for the links.

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