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View Full Version : Penalties: Too much off, not enough on.



speople
05-07-2010, 18:08
Why is there such a huge discrepancy between the ratings for scoring, or missing a pen ?

Your team can be winning handsomely, a guy has already scored 2 goals and an assist and has an 8.2 rating. He takes a pen and misses, his rating goes down to a 7.2

Realistically he should be man of the match for his performance, but yet he ends up with almost the worst rating in the entire team just because he missed a pen that didn't really matter anyway.

Conversely your guy has a good game, he scores the only goal of the game, a pen, yet for keeping his nerve when it mattered and securing the points, his rating goes up by about 0.2 and inevitably the mom in all such scenarios ends up being a defender from either your team or the opposition's.

Surely the ME needs a tweak ratings wise for pens to take into account the situation at the time when they were scored/missed. Always going down by 1, and up by .2 just doesn't seem to balance.

Same with assists, he has created a goal, yet his rating only goes up by about 0.2 once you look at the ratings just after play has resumed and the new ratings for all the players on the pitch have been recalculated.

Brian Shanahan
05-07-2010, 18:54
Simple answer, a penalty is about 85% probability of a goal, and about a 15% probablilty of a miss, and that is before you factor in player skills, etc. A player who misses a penalty should have a big dip in their performance rating, while success should not increase it by much.

On the matter of assists, it all matters what kind of an assist was made. Hecto Enrique's pass to Maradona is considered an assist for his second goal against England in 1986, would that merit a huge rise in the player's rating during the match, I don't think so. I also think you'll find that a player that makes a big move to set up a goal (e.g. beats 3 pinpoint cross) will have a big spike in his rating in-game.

Moonshine
05-07-2010, 22:31
Hmmm... I dispute the 85% rating. In the last two seasons, I have had 13 penaltys (including the 7 in a penalty shootout) and scored 5 (Including 3 in the penalty shootout)

Brian Shanahan
07-07-2010, 00:49
Hmmm... I dispute the 85% rating. In the last two seasons, I have had 13 penaltys (including the 7 in a penalty shootout) and scored 5 (Including 3 in the penalty shootout)

That's bad, are you looking at the peripheral stats for penalty taking, like composure, technique, determination. Personally I've missed 3 of about 50 over the years with my Betis team (coming up to Christmas 2015). And with Turkey in the world cup (worse penalty takers), I managed to score all eight (5 in shoot out).